FLESH FOR FANTASY – round 19
Well, this is it. The final round before Supercoach finals begin. For some, it’s a good chance to take a breather before the real stuff begins. While for others, everything comes down to this last round of matches.
A great deal rides on this round for many in the Jock Reynolds’ Fantasy Football community. Peter Higginbotham and myself both face a battle to be promoted to the Jock Reynolds Premier League in season 2014.
Mick the Mad Irishman is right in the hunt for the $50,000, currently sitting 7th overall in Supercoach but importantly is the favorite to win an arguably more coveted prize in the JR Premier League division this season.
Whatever situation you find yourself in, it’s a big week to finalise those teams. Some may have the luxury of a finished team, and now all about holding those trades for finals. Others, however, will need to make changes this week just to ensure top 4 or even finals action.
So, let’s begin.
“GET HIM IN”DAYNE BEAMS (COLL) MID – $580,100 DT/$635,100 SC – Next 5 Games: ESS (H), SYD (A), HAW (A), WCE (H), NM (H)
– Recent Scores: 88, 134, 134
Many had Dayne Beams in their starting sides, hoping the tattooed maestro could replicate his 2012 Copeland Trophy winning form. However, after being a late withdrawal vs North Melbourne round 1, he remained out of the side ‘till round 16 v Adelaide. He’s come back with a bang, averaging 32 touches and 118.7 SC points. In his last 2 weeks more importantly, he’s accumulated 34 and 37 disposals.
Dayne is more expensive than most premiums this deep into season, but what you’ll get is value for money. He’s shown us how good he can be, and with many still stuck with a banged up Patrick Dangerfield, Beams could be the ultimate POD – with only 1.78% of coaches owning him. If you’ve got Danger sitting on your bench, or cash in the purse, Beams could be the difference come finals.KADE SIMPSON (CARL) MID – $439,00 DT/$508,800 SC – Next 5 Games: FRE (H), WBD (H), RICH (A), ESS (H), PORT (A)
– Recent Scores: 106, 69, 119, 120, 108
If you take out that 69 v Collingwood, Simpson has 6 straight games of 100+ scores (plus 1 score of 99), plus averaging 113. It seems Kade has found the perfect role for him under Mick, and is back to his old consistent scoring self. He’s getting more of the footy as well, collecting 28 touches in his last 3 weeks.
The bearded warrior is a good option for those looking for a premium midfield option, but strapped for cash. To get a consistent 100+ scorer at $500k is somewhat of a bargain. On top of that, like Beams, he’s a great POD, with just 0.77% of coaches owning him. Worth considering if you need a cheap premium.ANDREW WALKER (CARL) FWD/MID – $396,400 DT/497,800 SC – Next 5 Games: FRE (H), WBD (H), RICH (A), ESS (H), PORT (A)
– Recent Scores: 75, 108, 91, 109, 114
A popular selection among coaches, Andrew is a must have heading into the finals series. He’s had a break out year under Mick Malthouse, and given the inconsistencies of most forwards, a high scorer who can score big week in, week out is required to succeed. His price is also a factor for consideration too. He’s dropped under $500,000 for the first time since round 4, and with a break even of 86, he’s not going to be this cheap for long.
Last time he played Richmond (Rd 1, 2013) he had 26 touches and 137 SC points. Against Essendon, had 28 touches and 140 SC points. Finally, against Port Adelaide, had 21 touches and 93 SC points. Should you make it that far, they are the sides you’ll play in the SF, PF and GF. Even last week v GCS, Andrew had 25 touches, 13 marks and 114 SC points. As mentioned above, he’s a consistent scorer, and it may be worth sending a Josh Kennedy (WCE) to Walker to ensure you’re not running gauntlet of copping a sub-80 score from Kennedy.MATTHEW KREUZER (CARL) RUCK – $452,500 DT/$566,700 SC – Next 5 Games: FRE (H), WBD (H), RICH (A), ESS (H), PORT (A)
– Recent Scores: 111, 136, 107, 139, 140
There’s a Carlton-heavy influence in this week’s Flesh, but it was too hard to ignore the form of Matthew Kreuzer, especially with the ruck conundrum worsening. He’s currently the form ruckman of the competition, with a 5 games average of 126.6. In contrast to the start of the season, his hit out numbers have improved significantly, recording 40, 28, 33, 29, 42. Compare this to the 20, 34, 7, 6, 12 in his first 5 games (missed rounds 4, 5 and 6) and you could say he’s starting to “kreuze” as the season wears on.
If you’re one of the unlucky ones with Nic Nat or Tom Nicholls, you need to trade. Last week I was all for Toddy Goldstein, but this week, I reckon purely based on run’s home, you must consider Matthew Kreuzer. North play GEE, ADEL, ESS, HAW, COLL in the last 5 games of the season, which is significantly tougher than that of Carlton’s. So, if you need a ruckman, Special K is your man. Here is Jock’s take on the Kreuzer scenario this week.
“GET HIM OUT”PAUL DUFFIELD (FRE) DEF – $323,600 DT/$360,900 SC – Next 5 Games: CARL (A), GWS (H), MELB (A), PORT (H), STK (A)
– Recent Scores: 71, 79, 49, 51, 76
I’ve been strong on the idea of holding your premiums all year, now it’s time to reconsider that notion. If a player is out of form heading into a finals series, they need to be traded. For Paul Duffield, it’s time to get rid of him. Since he missed a week in round 11, he’s averaged 65.2 and dropped $130,000 in value. So desperate is the situation with Duffield’s form, it should be your number one priority to dump this week.
Prior to that week off, he has hitting disposal counts in the late 20s, even breaking 30+. However since, he hasn’t been anywhere near that, even had 2 consecutive weeks of 10 disposals v Adelaide and Geelong. His form is such a concern I wouldn’t even hold and see if it’ll return v GWS or Melbourne. DUMP.TOM NICHOLLS (GCS) RUCK – $342,200 DT/$401,900 SC – Next 5 Games: WCE (A), MELB (H), PORT (A), STK (A), GWS (H)
– Recent Scores: 84, 99, 121, 88, 36
What a revelation Tom Nicholls has been. With all the Nic Nat trouble, Tom has been able to step up and produce some great scores. Many riding his luck were left frustrated on Saturday, when Tom was subbed out early with an aggravated knee injury. While coach Guy McKenna has said he’s been struggling with the injury (I know, right) over the past couple of weeks, this flair up may force Guy to give Tom a rest.
This isn’t good news for 34.81% coaches around the country and trading him out should be a serious option. He’s yielded nearly $300,000 and been the ultimate bench cover when required. At $400,000, he’s now the perfect stepping stone to a premium ruckman and locking in that 2-premium ruck combo come finals. Thanks for everything Tom, but it’s time to part ways…for now.JOSH J KENNEDY (WCE) FWD – $443,900 DT/$475,500 SC – Next 5 Games: GCS (H), ESS (A), GEE (H), COLL (A), ADEL (H)
– Recent Scores: 87, 106, 75, 128, 79
The decision to dump Josh Kennedy is purely a strategic one. Given his inconsistency and inability to string 2 100s together, I feel like he’s the type of player that could burn you in a final. But, he could also win you a final. For mine, personally, I would ship him off. He’s at the perfect price to go any of the top forward premiums; Andrew Walker will only cost you $22,000 from JJK.
You also have to factor in the approach West Coast will take here on in. They’ve clearly put the cue in the rack, called stumps for the season, so waiting to see if it’ll impact JJK’s scoring is not a risk I’m willing to take. I think now it the perfect time to turn Josh Kennedy into a Dustin Martin or Andrew Walker and alleviate the worry of Kennedy not turning up when you need him most.
– Trent McKenzie (GCS), BE 78
– Jaeger O’Meara (GCS), BE 70
– Matthew Kreuzer (CARL), BE 73
– Andrew Walker (CARL), BE 86
– Mark Murphy (CARL), BE 49
– Todd Goldstein (NM), BE 78
– Dane Swan (COLL), BE 113
– Joel Selwood (GEE), BE 85
– Steve Johnson (GEE), BE 105
– Corey Enright (GEE), BE 91
– Jack Steven (STK), BE 83
– Leigh Montagna (STK), BE 59
– Nathan Fyfe (FRE), BE 82
– Ricky Henderson (ADEL), BE 22
– Tom Rockliff (BRIS), BE 86
– Hamish Hartlett (PORT), BE 60
– Chad Wingard (PORT), BE 53
– Josh J Kennedy (WCE), BE 88
– Kieren Jack (SYD), BE 64
– Dustin Martin (RICH), BE 81
– Trent Cotchin (RICH), BE 92
– Brendon Goddard (ESS), BE 141
– Patrick Ryder (ESS), BE 133
– Sam Mitchell (HAW), BE 151
– Jarryd Roughead (HAW), BE 162
– Scott Pendlebury (COLL), BE 192
– Michael Barlow (FRE), BE 133
– David Mundy (FRE), BE 153
– Will Minson (WBD), BE 129
– Dean Cox (WCE), BE 113
– Josh P Kennedy (SYD), BE 116
– Brett Deledio (RICH), BE 138
Last round of the regular season, so a big thank you for all the questions throughout the year – you’ve made Flesh for Fantasy what it is. Here are the big questions for this week’s action.
ANSWER: Yeah interesting one because he’s due to come back any week now if you hear reports, but we just don’t know when. The uncertainty of when he will return and if he’ll be back to his best is enough questions for me to dump. I’d send him to Beams without hesitation. You don’t want any question marks heading into a big finals campaign. Trade.
ANSWER: Unlike most, including myself, you have the luxury of a sizable bank ready at the disposal. Tom Nicholls has to go, no questions about it. As for whom though, it’s out of Kreuzer and Goldstein, and for mine, I’d go Kreuzer. This is purely based on his run home compared to North’s. It’s considerably easier and with his form at the moment, it would be hard to go past Kreuzer.
ANSWER: Definitely. Hold for one more week and then trade next. Whatever you’re doing is obviously serving you well, given you’re in the top 2000 and first in all your leagues. 6 trades into finals is the dream of many coaches and you hold a significant advantage to everyone else. Next week I’d begin trading and try to get these blokes in – you Johnsons, Swans etc. But yeah, definitely hold if you can, you’re in a bloody good position.
ANSWER: As mentioned by Jock in his video last night, it’s got to be Corey Enright. His consistency has been a shining light in a season where the defenders have failed to fire a shot. He also has an easier run home compared to most defenders around him. Enright for me.
ANSWER: Tough situation. For mine, it really depends who your rucks are. If Nicholls was R2, I’d send Nicholls to a premium and downgrade Swallow to say a Marc Murphy. But if he weren’t, I would send Swallow to a better premium and downgrade Tom to Brodie Grundy. That decision will be based on who your R2 is.
Anyway, good luck in the final round of the regular season. Whether you finish on top, or miss out of finals, the community will still see you as winners. Any last minute questions you have can be posted below, or at @Mr_Crimmins.