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Tight Arse Tuesday – Round 17

Published by Jock on

**note from Jock before you begin Mick’s article – get right behind Micky – he’s ranked 19th in the overall Supercoach standings the great man!**

Supercoach strategy with Mick

Good day community and welcome to this week’s edition of “Tight Arse Tuesday”.

With only three weeks of games remaining in the AFL Supercoach home and away season, now is the time to make a move if you are struggling to make the top 4, the 8 or even them bottom 8 depending on your current circumstances and team.

This column is aimed at those who are short on cash but are looking for a viable option that will give them a POD and hopefully a way to bag those all-important four points in every week of the run home. Based on the comments I get weekly I think this has been lost on some of my beloved community.

Please understand that if you have the money and maybe a few more trades than most, there will always be safer, more recognisable premiums that might offer you more security. However that’s not saying that a premium can’t fall so much in price that they won’t feature, as we have had our fair share of fallen premiums already this year and we have one more for you today.

Marc Murphy

Average 90.86
Breakeven 104
Current Price $376,800
Priced to Average 73.3
Owned by 17,648 teams (5.68%)
 

I hope you have all listened to this week’s Podcast by now and if you have you’ll know that Wayno’s hot tip is Marc Murphy and once again I feel Wayno has delivered for the community. Follow the man himself on twitter by clicking here. I’ve told him I own him a few 4X for his troubles (of course I will be waiting until he turns 18 before he gets them).

Marc Murphy is at a ridiculous price this week and I have to keep double checking that I have entered the correct price up above. But for all those rubbing their eyes, this is the correct figure. It is normally a big surprise when an elite premium falls below the $500k mark but it’s not too often that an elite falls below the $400k marc. In fact I can’t recall another time that a proven elite (as in they have averaged over 110 for three years in a row) have fallen to this level. I’m sure somebody in the community will correct me.

So in case you aren’t aware of Marc’s level of consistency these are his averages over the last five years.

Marc Murphy past season

As you can see Murphy has found himself in the Super Elite range for the last four years with his lowest yearly average been 111.9 in that time period. He had is best year in 2011 with an average of 118.05 but what many might be unaware or have forgotten is that he would have averaged 117.68 last season if you discount his score of 38 in round 8 where is sustained a shoulder injury that kept him out for 7 rounds.

So why is he so cheap now?

The answer to this question isn’t as straight forward as in other weeks and is a little more complicated than the simple fact he had an injury effected score run through his three week average. Yes Marc got injured in round 12 where he suffered a broken cheek bone and a very score head from a bump from Luke Hodge. (Now I love you Luke but if that was Stevey J he would have got two weeks – oh how I hate the lucky bag punishment system that the MRP has adopted ). Sorry community, my little side rant is over, back on track now I promise.

Up until that point Marc wasn’t exactly setting the Supercoach world on fire, only averaging 101 before he was struck down with injury. At this point he was priced modestly at $508k anyway, and with a score of 22 in the round he was injured and 54 in his first game back, where he was clearly rushed back and probably needed another week or two, you can see why he has dropped over $125k in the last three weeks.
That is why he has dropped so low form the 500k mark but what we also need to examine why he dropped to the $500k mark in the first place, with his average hovering at the 100pts per game it was at the time of his injury. If we examine the stats comparing this year barring his injury affected game, with is best in 2011 we can see where the differentials are.

Marc Murphy stats

As you can see all of the major Supercoach scoring stats are down on his very best. Average disposals are down 3.1 per game, contested possessions are down 3.7 per game, clearances down 1.8 per game, efficiency is down 4%, and tackles are down 0.8 per game. All these stats are Supercoach gold and when these numbers go south so do the Supercoach scoring output.

There is an obvious reason for his reduction in output and one that can’t be overlooked if you are considering him as an option for the rest of the year. As Jock put it the captaincy is weighing very heavily on his shoulders and he has not performed as well as he is capable ever since he has been named the captain of the Carlton Football club.

Honestly I think it can sometimes be harder to take the captaincy over from a fellow player who is still playing alongside you every week, especially if that player is a modern day champion and superb leader in the form of Chris Judd. It would have been a lot easier if he had taken the role after Chris had retired but no changing that fact now. I believe that Marc has put extra pressure on himself to be seen actively leading and he appears to be concentrating on the leadership more than his own game, which has suffered as a result.

What he needs to learn is that there is a fine balance between being both – and that some of the very best captains in the competition lead by example. When Essendon need a centre clearance or a goal, more often than not it is Jobe Watson that provides it, which in turn lifts the other 21 players around. Judd has done that at the Blues, Selwood at Geelong, Ablett at the Goldcoast, Nick Maxwell at the Pies (lol sorry I couldn’t resist – we all know Pendlebury is the man down at the Pies).

I do believe Marc will grow into this role and become a fine captain but the big question remains is weather that will happen during the blues run home or is it more likely going to be next year? I am going to go out on a limb here and go with the former. I believe the pot is boiling and the lid is about to pop. If we look at Murphy’s run home we can see that he likes playing almost all of Carlton’s opponents and many of his Monster scores have come against these upcoming opponents.

Marc Murphy upcoming opponents
He has had monster scores of over 130 against all of these opponents in the past apart from the Bulldogs, however he averages the most against the doggies with 113.8 pts per game. Another reason why I like Murphy’s chances of improved output is the fact that Chris Judd has played himself into a little bit of form and may very well demand the number one tag for the run home, leaving Murphy off the lease. It might be a risky move bringing Marc in but I have got to go with my gut on this one and I believe Marc has a run of Monster scores in him and it is for that reasons Marc will be joining the Mayhem.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2013 Predicted Status: Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 112-117pts
 

Final Word

At worst he will come home averaging 100 and at that price I really don’t think you can lose. At best he comes home all guns blazing and you’ll look like a genius for bring him in?

Where does he sit for you?

Stay tuned..

Mick the Mad Irishman

Mad as all get up… and RANKED 19th in the overall Supercoach rankings this week!  Click here for more from the Mad Irishman

And make sure you follow him on twitter https://twitter.com/Da_Mad_Irishman

 


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Remy

Lock, gun, proven premium. At 376,800!
If he fits in your side, GET HIM IN!

Robert

Murphy plays for Carlton though……. everyone hates Carlton? Please help Jock???

cotchandmurph

agree to disagree, doesnt matter who he plays for he is a gun

brentdurran

so are you saying we should swap him for Tom Mitchell??

James

No

Phillip

Trade Vlastuin for murphy? Which means Tom Mitchell will need to go to the bench? But will only have $24,000 left. what do you think mick?

Phillip

Also will have 7 trades left

Kony

With that many left, get a better mid than Murphy.

willeefto

Get Murphy, he is ridiculously good value.

Pieman1978

Mick,

Corgrats on your position. It shows what learning from the JR community can achieve. Whilst I think Murph is an awesome trade in option it comes at an awkward time. I have to agree with Higgo & ask who to? Most people given the stupid amount of trades are full premium midfield, & full premium overall. If Murph was MPP it's a bargain you would see every 2-3 years.

"your thoughts Mick"

SCaddict

You've swayed me Mick with all your fine arguments. Just upgraded Vlastuin to Smurf as the M8/M9 in Morgan's Maestros.

So who will you be swapping Smurf for in Mad Mick's Mahem, Pridda or Titch or will this remain a trade secret until Sunday night?

Could be a $50,000 decision! 🙂

Sam

Mate, just checked out your team and 2544, seriously? Who was your captain?

SCaddict

Nothing special just Gaz. Actually had Stevie J as VC but by time he went above 130 it was too late to use the loophole as the Suns game had already started so missed out on an extra 20pts.

Jim

what should i do with terlich?

James

trade to Jack Grimes
hes a gun averages 84 but if you take out the game he got injured and the game he returned he averages about 98
And he is only $377,000
Hes a lock for me

Pieman1978

Like all Turds. Send him to Werribee….for some time with the "two's"

Kony

Get rid of him…

natedogg

Hi Mick….let me ask you this. Who do you kick out of your midfield for Murphy??? Priddis or Cotchin are my weakest mids with tommy gun mitchell as emergency…

Mungo Man

priddis! handballs to much. cotchin gets clerances by foot alot more!

ShinbonerSpirit

Which may result in a lower disposal efficiency.

Rocksta

No one!
Getting rid of Priddis or Cotchin for Murphy makes absolutely no sense and is a waste of a trade.

Dee

What about trading Priddis for Watson when he eventually comes back? I reckon it’s a good trade just before the finals…. I have to agree, Priddis handballs way too much and doesn’t get any marks and hardly tackles! Priddis is not ultra premium! Watson is….. Thoughts?!

ShinbonerSpirit

Agree with Rocksta. Waste of a traded if Priddis and Cotch are on the chopping block.

JimBob

Does anybody know how long the danger is out. Would it be worth trading him to Murphy?

Saltysalts

Maybe not Murphy mate, unless you're desperate to generate some cash. I'd much prefer a straight swap for Barlow he is in incredible form.

We are at the business end of the season so I'd be looking to swap like for like. Danger to Barlow is a solid option for similar scoring!

If Barlow's already in your team, take a look at Swan, Selwood, Jack or even Stevie J if you can wait a week…(risky though)

dustin

If you have a small number of trades left, just wait a week to see the extent of dangers injury because apparently its only a 1-2 week injury. If his out for more then 3 week which i doubt he is, then you should trade him to a elite premium like a barlow/swan/pendle/griffen/stevieJ

Andy B

Any concern on his hammy from last friday? With his BE of 102, was going to wait a week to see he has no issues with the hammy + scores 90+ this week.

Kewgie

A knew after the Friday game that Murphy was going to be in this article. Its sad because I have had him from the start. Hope the predicted average comes true.

Pieman1978

Confucius says men who own pub at base of You Yangs national park are named Dean & Harry. Pub get called “teurdeliquor”. Welcome

cotchandmurph

yes i love murphy, i have been telling people that at this price he is a bargin,but i was going to bring him back in when he gets rid of the helmet,so when his confidence will be back

James

Not a bad downgrade option for those with O'meara, who are struggling for money

Sam

Isn't it spelt Marc* Murphy haha, anyways great article and congrats on being 19th overall.

Saltysalts

Should I burn a trade to get Bartel? I actually have 9 trades left at the moment but I'm at full premo team, or I would have been if it wasn't for the Sauce.

My logic here is to trade Sam Rowe for Liam McBean and generate enough cash to trade OUT the sauce, swing Cox into the ruck and trade in Bartel.

Any other suggestions for forward trade ins? My forward line is Cox, Roughead, Martin, Rockliff, JJK, Nic Nat.

Goldy

Toddy Goldstein for Sam Rowe. Scoring very strongly.

James

Time to bring in Murph.

Dan

Anus

James

Hi Mick,

Who is the best VC option this week: S Mitchell, D Swan, G Ablett or S Pendlebury?

Will use it on Josh P Kennedy if all goes wrong.

Cheers

James

Will use the captaincy on Josh P Kennedy if it all goes wrong.*

Joey Jo Jo Junior

JPK in crappy form. Months since a decent score. Go Pendles / Ablett VC / C

Jimbo

Hi Community, first time playing SC, great fun, top marks to the Jockreynolds pod casts, top lads giving advice and having a bubble, anyway, which player do you think will make the most points, only one trade left, had a lot of players go down during the season, should I trade Watson for Bartel, Rockliff, for mid and forward line ups or Selwood, have GA, Swan, Barlow, Dangerfield, Cotchin, JPK, Montagna in midfield,
thanks community

micki S

what are you coming on the ladder Jimbo

jimbo

48209 place, will try higher for next season though

Joey Jo Jo

With no trades left, you probably need a FWD/MID swing if you don't already have in case of injury. Rockliff in great form and easy run home for Lions. He's the man.

jimbo

How about Bartel? had some big scores and the teams going good

Blair

Hey Jock

Couple of questions-

will franklin play ths week?

what can we expect from him for the rest of the year??

Only have 3 trades left but really tempted to ditch, feild is all prem besides Nichols

Thinking buddy for Rockliff or roughie??

Also who do you think Crowley will pinch this week from tigers?

Mungo Man

roughie for sure! crowley will most likely got to delids hes most damaging player in the midfield!

Blair

Yer wanted roughie for a month or so but rockliff at a cheap price and easy run home is tempting. With only 3 trades left not sure if I should keep buds at f6 invade of injuries

James

4 trades left, got both jobe and dangerfield. what do i do?

cotchandmurph

Trade both of them for prems

James

goodes, niccols and staker?? what to do?

Hugh Garse

keep, keep, keep. all great value for money.

micki S

i have 1 trade left. should i put him in?

micki S

im also coming third so should i take him.These are my trade options.

Mitchell, S
$496,000

12. Wingard, C
$450,900

13. Hartlett, H
$422,600

14. Ball, L
$451,000

Mitchell, T
$387,400

ikn4l

HOLD! If you only have 1 trade left

ShinbonerSpirit

Wouldn't spend that trade on anything short of a 300k Gary Ablett.

Chumpy

Here's my dilemna, I have 4 players I want to get rid of, and only three trades. Plenty of $$, 300k in the bank. Out of Sauce Jacobs, Staker, Zorko, and Tom Mitchell, who should be my priority?

JJFYZZ

Sauce then Zorko and hopefully you can leave Staker and TMitchell on the bench as good JS and also very good point scoring cover!

Chumpy

tiny problem with that, they're all on the field at the moment :/ thinking Jacobs must go, hold on the rest, two trades for finals will have to suffice.

Jenny Talia

Hold Staker and Mitchell. Both going great.

Of Jacobs and Zorko, definetly drop Jacobs. He is way out of sorts and could even face a spell on he sideline if he doesnt pick up in next couple of weeks. Zorko out of form, and very frustrating,, but still has potential to explode with a 130+ game.

Deadly

Doc Larkin reckons Murphy may be out this week with a sore buttock. He must have put his helmet on wrong?

Jason

Looking at getting Walker in to complete my forward line.

Would I be better off waiting a week to bring in Johnson? Can spare the cash.

Johno

HOLD unless you need a win this week to make finals.

Stevie J is best forward option available if you have the cash. Only forward who has chance of getting in a bulls roar of non-DPP mid.

Alex

I only traded in dangerfield last week using 2 trades to get him. Now they are saying he could be out for up to 4 weeks. I only have 5 trades left, should i trade him or hold and put Tom Mitchell on the field.

Chumpy

Mitchell is gun, hold and put him on, should only miss one more week the dangerman

Chumpy

Make that 3 weeks…trade him down to Marc Murphy and generate some $$

Pete

Hey Mick,

I still have Watson and Danger, and thinking to trade out one of them for Murphy to free up cash to upgrade O’Meara to Pendles. What are your thoughts re their respective injuries? Reports are saying that Jobe responding well to collarbone injury and he could be back in time for SC finals, whereas Dangerfield is listed as being 1-3 weeks with shoulder injury which I would imagine would be hard to recover from. Trading out Danger also frees up a bit more cash.

What do you reckon?

Thommo

112-117? Agree he's a great tight-arse option but he's shown absolutely nothing to suggest he'll be back to his absolute best from now on. 92-97 would be a more realistic prediction for mine. Still good value though.

Liam

Hi community i was wondering who to get trade in for Patty Dangerfiend

My midfield at the moment is Ablett, Swan, Griffen, Barlow, Deledio, Dangerfield, kennedy and T mitchell

I can afford any midfielder apart from pendlebury and beams

Help please ?

ikn4l

IMO I would hold for a couple of weeks and use T Mitchell as cover. But if you really want to trade I would go J selwood

Liam

Tom mitchell is already on my ground

SCaddict

Reckon either Jack, Selwood or S.Mitchell present the best value for likely elite production to perform as a decent M5/M6 to somewhat replace Danger, and just bank the cash savings for your next trade.

I see Smurf, although darn cheap, as a better M8/M9 option as injuries have definitely had a deleterious impact on his output this season.

Liam

Yeh thanks im thinking the geelong skipper joel seleood

liam f

Liam, who is on your bench? Can you sub one off them for danger for a few weeks? If not rockliffa good option for mine

Luke

What to do with Dangerfield? I have 6 trades, and was planning to use 2 to upgrade staker to bartel to complete my forward line and my whole team in fact. What should I do?

SCaddict

Yeah Danger really needs to go unless you have excellent midfield bench cover. Plenty of choices for the money as per my post to Liam above.

luke

My midfield bench is Mitchell and Hrovat. Pretty 'excellent' in my eyes. I also have Natanui and Franklin to deal with, aswell as my uncompleted forward. Any suggestions?

SCaddict

Yes that's good cover so would hold Danger in that case.

luke

Ok thanks so much! Should I trade out Natanui? I do have Nicholls to cover for him if he isnt going to be out for long. And I also need to make cash somehow so I can complete my forward line. Not sure who to downgrade and to who?

SCaddict

Many are jumping off Nic Nat especially those with Nicholls so that could be a good way to generate cash.

Just go the cheapest ruck option to genertae maximum cash or McBean if a swingman is beneficial in your set-up.

@Jacko2128

get OUT – Duffield or terlich?

get IN – dusty martin or n riewoldt?

@Jacko2128

or hold ?

ShinbonerSpirit

Terlich out, Dusty in.

@Jacko2128

ok. im going for league win, comin 2nd with easy run home… sure i shouldnt hold?

@Jacko2128

8 trades

ssmeg

8 trades?

Trade, trade, trade!!!!!!!!!

Tom

So i already have Hanley & Ibbotson in my backline,
IS IT INSANE to trade out maric for a random like McBean (for loophole) and make Nicholls R2, then I can upgrade Terlich to Malceski?

Zimmer

I was thinking about doing the same thing with my rucks, except trading out Jacobs. Have got Mayes on the fwd bench, and thinking of upgrading him. Haven't decided what I'll do yet.

Still have Watson too, but Mitchell is there for cover. Can't work it out.

Tom

Is Priddis Supercoach final material? He only averages around 95-100 every week. I feel that i should trade him to Swan before finals start

ShinbonerSpirit

Can you bring in Swan another way?

Jack

Danger-murphy
B. Murdoch-t. Rockliff
Leaves with 2 trades and 220k
Thoughts?

Rocksta

Can't justify Danger to Murphy.
Danger should only be traded to another super elite mid ( Ablett,Pendles,Swanny,Barlow,Selwood)

Dee

Would you guys consider trading in Watson/Swan/Griffin for Priddis?? I feel like he doesn’t score enough, i been contemplating on this, is this a waste of a a trade?! Thoughts community….

Zimmer

Wouldn't trade in Watson. He's out for at least 3-4 weeks.

If you could get Swan in it would be a plus, but it would depend on the rest of your mids.

luke

Hi Jock and community,

My team prior to round 17 is:

Trades Left: 6 || Remaining Salary Cap: $9, 600

Defense:
Goddard, Shaw, Gibbs, Hartlett, Hanley, Heppell (Clisby, Frost)

Midfield:
Ablett, Pendlebury, Dangerfield, Fyfe, Selwood, Priddis, Cotchin, Swan (Mitchell, Hrovat)

Ruck:
Minson, Natnui (Nicholls, Currie)

Forward:
Cox, Franklin, Martin, Rockliff, Kennedy, Staker (Lee, Daniher)

Really desperate for some advice this week. With Dangerfield, Natnui and Franklin all injured this week, I am not sure what 2 trades to make this week. Was initially planning to complete my forward line my upgrading Staker to Bartel but thinking I might focus on the injuries before I upgrade Staker as he still does have a bit of cash left in him. I have good midfield coverage so Im thinking I might leave Dangerfield on the bench and put Mitchell on the field. Besides that, what should I focus on this round and what trades should I make? In real need this week.

Thanks in advance.

Liam

Is Nic Naitanui playing guys ?

Zimmer

No, I think they're playing Sydney.

Jason

It all adds up Jock – what you are ignoring is his time on ground under Mighty Mick. With 8.2% less time on ground when comparing this year to his peak then obviously his stats will reduce. If you factor in this % difference then this year, pre injury, he would be averaging a touch under 110 (not 101).

Maybe it's not his form, but a symptom of Mick's coaching and/or gibbs's introduction to the mids eating away at his time in the guts.

Jason

What do you guys think of Trading Dangerfield to Murphy , then using the money to upgrade Hawkins or Macaffer to Rockliffe ?

David

Murph is a bench option at best. I already have mitchell and Vlastuin on my midfield bench and I can't find a place on the field for Rockliff, Hibberd, Kruezer or Luenberger. When SJ comes back I'll have to bench Dusty, Kennedy or Cox. There are too many trades in this competition. There should be a maximum of 6 trades p/season PLUS injuries & suspensions of more than 3 weeks can be traded out.

Luke

Thinking of trading out Natanui (as I have Nicholls) to Mcbean to generate cash. Want to either upgrade Staker or Lee to Bartel to complete my forward, but not sure who. If I upgrade Lee, ill have barely any money left, but will good forward coverage with Staker having good job security, whereas if upgrade Staker, ill still have 200k left, but will have a fragile forward bench with Lee's unreliable job security. What should I do?