**note from Jock before you begin Mick’s article – get right behind Micky – he’s ranked 19th in the overall Supercoach standings the great man!**
Good day community and welcome to this week’s edition of “Tight Arse Tuesday”.
With only three weeks of games remaining in the AFL Supercoach home and away season, now is the time to make a move if you are struggling to make the top 4, the 8 or even them bottom 8 depending on your current circumstances and team.
This column is aimed at those who are short on cash but are looking for a viable option that will give them a POD and hopefully a way to bag those all-important four points in every week of the run home. Based on the comments I get weekly I think this has been lost on some of my beloved community.
Please understand that if you have the money and maybe a few more trades than most, there will always be safer, more recognisable premiums that might offer you more security. However that’s not saying that a premium can’t fall so much in price that they won’t feature, as we have had our fair share of fallen premiums already this year and we have one more for you today.
Marc MurphyAverage 90.86
Current Price $376,800
Priced to Average 73.3
Owned by 17,648 teams (5.68%)
I hope you have all listened to this week’s Podcast by now and if you have you’ll know that Wayno’s hot tip is Marc Murphy and once again I feel Wayno has delivered for the community. Follow the man himself on twitter by clicking here. I’ve told him I own him a few 4X for his troubles (of course I will be waiting until he turns 18 before he gets them).
Marc Murphy is at a ridiculous price this week and I have to keep double checking that I have entered the correct price up above. But for all those rubbing their eyes, this is the correct figure. It is normally a big surprise when an elite premium falls below the $500k mark but it’s not too often that an elite falls below the $400k marc. In fact I can’t recall another time that a proven elite (as in they have averaged over 110 for three years in a row) have fallen to this level. I’m sure somebody in the community will correct me.
So in case you aren’t aware of Marc’s level of consistency these are his averages over the last five years.
As you can see Murphy has found himself in the Super Elite range for the last four years with his lowest yearly average been 111.9 in that time period. He had is best year in 2011 with an average of 118.05 but what many might be unaware or have forgotten is that he would have averaged 117.68 last season if you discount his score of 38 in round 8 where is sustained a shoulder injury that kept him out for 7 rounds.
So why is he so cheap now?
The answer to this question isn’t as straight forward as in other weeks and is a little more complicated than the simple fact he had an injury effected score run through his three week average. Yes Marc got injured in round 12 where he suffered a broken cheek bone and a very score head from a bump from Luke Hodge. (Now I love you Luke but if that was Stevey J he would have got two weeks – oh how I hate the lucky bag punishment system that the MRP has adopted ). Sorry community, my little side rant is over, back on track now I promise.
Up until that point Marc wasn’t exactly setting the Supercoach world on fire, only averaging 101 before he was struck down with injury. At this point he was priced modestly at $508k anyway, and with a score of 22 in the round he was injured and 54 in his first game back, where he was clearly rushed back and probably needed another week or two, you can see why he has dropped over $125k in the last three weeks.
That is why he has dropped so low form the 500k mark but what we also need to examine why he dropped to the $500k mark in the first place, with his average hovering at the 100pts per game it was at the time of his injury. If we examine the stats comparing this year barring his injury affected game, with is best in 2011 we can see where the differentials are.
As you can see all of the major Supercoach scoring stats are down on his very best. Average disposals are down 3.1 per game, contested possessions are down 3.7 per game, clearances down 1.8 per game, efficiency is down 4%, and tackles are down 0.8 per game. All these stats are Supercoach gold and when these numbers go south so do the Supercoach scoring output.
There is an obvious reason for his reduction in output and one that can’t be overlooked if you are considering him as an option for the rest of the year. As Jock put it the captaincy is weighing very heavily on his shoulders and he has not performed as well as he is capable ever since he has been named the captain of the Carlton Football club.
Honestly I think it can sometimes be harder to take the captaincy over from a fellow player who is still playing alongside you every week, especially if that player is a modern day champion and superb leader in the form of Chris Judd. It would have been a lot easier if he had taken the role after Chris had retired but no changing that fact now. I believe that Marc has put extra pressure on himself to be seen actively leading and he appears to be concentrating on the leadership more than his own game, which has suffered as a result.
What he needs to learn is that there is a fine balance between being both – and that some of the very best captains in the competition lead by example. When Essendon need a centre clearance or a goal, more often than not it is Jobe Watson that provides it, which in turn lifts the other 21 players around. Judd has done that at the Blues, Selwood at Geelong, Ablett at the Goldcoast, Nick Maxwell at the Pies (lol sorry I couldn’t resist – we all know Pendlebury is the man down at the Pies).
I do believe Marc will grow into this role and become a fine captain but the big question remains is weather that will happen during the blues run home or is it more likely going to be next year? I am going to go out on a limb here and go with the former. I believe the pot is boiling and the lid is about to pop. If we look at Murphy’s run home we can see that he likes playing almost all of Carlton’s opponents and many of his Monster scores have come against these upcoming opponents.
He has had monster scores of over 130 against all of these opponents in the past apart from the Bulldogs, however he averages the most against the doggies with 113.8 pts per game. Another reason why I like Murphy’s chances of improved output is the fact that Chris Judd has played himself into a little bit of form and may very well demand the number one tag for the run home, leaving Murphy off the lease. It might be a risky move bringing Marc in but I have got to go with my gut on this one and I believe Marc has a run of Monster scores in him and it is for that reasons Marc will be joining the Mayhem.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict2013 Predicted Status: Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 112-117pts
At worst he will come home averaging 100 and at that price I really don’t think you can lose. At best he comes home all guns blazing and you’ll look like a genius for bring him in?
Where does he sit for you?
Mick the Mad Irishman
Mad as all get up… and RANKED 19th in the overall Supercoach rankings this week! Click here for more from the Mad Irishman
And make sure you follow him on twitter https://twitter.com/Da_Mad_Irishman