FLESH FOR FANTASY – round 15
It has been an eventful evening at the selection table with some pretty remarkable INS announced earier. Namely Michael Barlow, David Mundy, Aaron Sandilands, Matthew Pavlich, Brett Goods (dubious), Nick Vlastuin and livewire Cyril Rioli.
Plenty of fantasy relevance there and more that a few lips being licked around town this evening no doubt. However let me take you through a few players of high priority in the lead up to round 15.
“GET HIM IN”JOSH P KENNEDY (SYD) MID – $421,500 DT/$519,400 SC – Next 5 Games: MELB, GWS, WCE, RICH
– Recent Scores: 88, 107, 87, 126, 56
If ever there was a time to get on board the JPK train it is now. Granted he has a highish breakeven around 120 but I completely expect him to deliver that and then some this week against the Demons, and then again the following week against the GWS outfit. Faced the Melbourne team once in 2012 and delivered 132 Supercoach points – expect more of the same. Has faced internal pressure re: his recent inconsistency and will be taken a back if he does not respond.JOEL SELWOOD (GEEL) MID – $454,500 DT/$519,200 SC – Next 5 Games: HAW, MELB, ADEL, STK
– Recent Scores: 54, 135, 137, 73
Was Crowlied last weekend against Freo. And has now been done over on the tag several times this season. However if there is one thing I know about Joel it is that his competitive instinct is as strong as I have seen. He will be livid this week with his performance last weekend. He will be seething. He will walk the length and breadth of this earth to ensure that he overcomes his tagging issues for the remainder of this season. As such, and with his price at the moment equating to an insult on his potential, I would select Joel Selwood this week with minimal hesitation. Josh P Kennedy V Selwood as options is an interesting question. Both similarly priced. Both proven stars in a rut. Selwood by a whisker, too proud a warrior not to bounce back.PATRICK RYDER (ESS) FWD/RUCK – $421,700 DT/$482,200 SC – Next 5 Games: PTA, WBD, GWS, HAW
– Recent Scores: 98, 101, 110, 54
The demise of the Belchambers boy suits Patrick fine. Just fine. It is as clear as the nose on my face that Ryder lifts in the role of the #1 big man on the ground for Essendon. Who could forget that Anzac day performance of yesteryear when David Hille was injured early. Breath taking. I expect Patrick to consolidate his solid recent form and go the next step in the coming weeks against weaker competition. Delicious dual position eligibility may provide flexibility as the finals approach and indeed commence. Priced fairly. Breakeven around the high 70’s – value.BRENT STANTON (ESS) MID – $475,900 DT/$466,400 SC – Next 5 Games: PTA, WBD, GWS, HAW
– Recent Scores: 99, 104, 59, 124
Regardless of what he has done to us in the past there is no denying that Brent Stanton should be considered at this price if your team has budgetary restrictions. Should you forego Brent for slightly more expensive premium options such as JPK, Watson, Joel Selwood and co? YES YOU SHOULD. But having said that I feel that Brent is a solid option for the thrifty, the frugal, and the generally tight of arse. Should enjoy the soft run over the next 3-4 weeks and must be a chance to come home averaging strongly enough to be a thorn in the side of your Supercoach and Dreamteam finals opponents.
TOM HAWKINS (GEEL) FWD – $283,600 DT/$362,100 SC
– Next 5 Games: HAW, MELB, ADEL, STK
– Recent Scores: 76, 81, 48, 71
Hinted at a return to form last week without dazzling. We know he came home with a very moist sail last year with 4 scores of 130+ in the last 10 games of the season. Might be worth waiting the week until the Melbourne game if you’re game at all – as Jock would say – one for the “robust of plum”.
I want you all to pay particular attention to the plights of Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands. But more importantly – I want you to watch the effect that these players have on Fremantle’s structure, and for the players who may benefit or be negatively affected. Fremantle are a premium team this season who have an absolutely cherry ripe finals series playing GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Saint Kilda during the fantasy fonals period. Watch the Fremantle V St Kilda game LIKE HAWKS.
Here’s the list of this week’s key breakevens. Note: they are approximates, and not the actual figure.
– Jobe Watson (ESS), BE 79
– Mark LeCras (WCE), BE 27
– Andrew Gaff (WCE), BE 25
– Tom Mitchell (SYD), BE -4
– Bryce Gibbs (CARL), BE 72
– Matthew Kreuzer (CARL), BE 65
– Jaeger O’Meara (GCS), BE 50
– Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL), BE 78
– Oliver Wines (PORT), BE 48
– Deal Terlich (MELB), BE 49
– Ryan Griffin (WBD), BE 117
– Jarryd Roughead (HAW), BE 74
– Matthew Leuenberger (BRIS), BE 66
– Brent Staker (BRIS), BE 14
– Nic Naitanui (WCE), BE 155
– Josh P Kennedy (SYD), BE 121
– Daniel Hannebery (SYD), BE 140
– Gary Ablett Jr (GCS), BE 155
– Scott Pendlebury (COLL), BE 123
– Dane Swan (COLL), BE 135
– Heath Shaw (COLL), BE 137
– Sam Dwyer (COLL), BE 90
– Joel Selwood (GEE), BE 127
– Pearce Hanley (BRIS), BE 125
– Tom Rockliff (BRIS), BE 132
– Brett Deledio (RICH), BE 163
– Dustin Martin (RICH), BE 133
Thank’s again for the inundation of questions. Here are this week’s big questions to ponder as we turn for the home straight.
ANSWER: Yeah a frustrating one. Really hasn’t been the DPP we were hoping to fire. However, I would honestly hold him ‘till the finals. That way, you can see if he is able to build some form as we head towards the finals. Also, you don’t want to trade him out for someone now may be injured/lose form later in the season. But yeah, hold him and reassess come finals.
ANSWER: Personally, I don’t believe so. Both play different roles, and Cyril isn’t a key forward-type player so Rioli will be forced out more than Roughy. Jarryd has been sensational this season, in pre-achilles form, playing predominately as a key forward, with some pinch-hitting in the ruck. He’s become more important than Lance Franklin, so the inclusion of Rioli won’t impact his output. Get him in.
ANSWER: Yeah a tough one for mine. I personally think it depends on if you have Terlich on your bench. If you do, I would go Goodes to Goddard and sit Duffield on the pine ‘till he is back. However, if you don’t have good cover on the bench, you may have to go Duffield to Goddard depending on your league situation. How you attack this depends on your situation down back for mine.
ANSWER: Could be an absolute masterstroke, but also a disaster if things don’t go to plan. Love how you’re thinking and planning though, using strategic brain to get a leg up on competition. For mine, I would wait and see how he goes. Reckon Lyon will plump him up forward early days of his return and this should see his price drop. Sandiman could be nicely priced has he cranks it up heading to finals. But of course, he could also break down, and he has a seriously high buyers beware. Wait for mine, but could be a huge in if all goes to plan.
Anyway, all the best this weekend. Send any questions to @Mr_Crimmins or any one of the elite community members. We’re in this together.