FLESH FOR FANTASY – ROUND 14
Well, it’s over. Many have come out battered and bruised, but the bye rounds are done. The beast has been tamed. We can now look forward to the next 10 weeks with our best players on the field (barring injury and suspension of course).
We also see the back of one of the most selfish bye rounds of all time. Losing Ablett, Pendlebury, Watson, Goddard, Gibbs and Dangerfield was a cruel joke from the powers of this great game. However, it finally put Ryan Griffin into the spotlight with a 143. His recent scores of 136, 176, 129 and that 143 have elevated him to the 2nd most expensive player in the game behind Gaz.
But now that the very best will be playing this week, it’s time to start cranking it up a few notches. We should start looking at cementing those last couple of premiums, and all eyes should be on the finals coming up in 6 weeks.
But for now, let’s get stuck into some Flesh.
“GET HIM IN”TRENT MCKENZIE (GCS) DEF – $407,600 DT/$462,900 SC – Next 5 Games: ADEL (H), BRIS (A), RICH (A), COLL (H), CARL (H)
– Recent Scores: 91, 102, 88, 114, 108
His good scoring this season has basically gone unnoticed, until now. Only 2.07% of coaches are benefiting from Trent’s consistently high scores. Since coming in against GWS in round 5, he’s had 4 scores above 100, 2 above 90 and an 88.
Beautiful thing about Trent is that he never handballs, always kicks it. In games with 20+ touches (6 of last 8 games), he’s averaged 7 handballs a game, and as we know, kicks are gold compared to handballs. If you were roped in and burnt by Grant Birchell, Trent might be a nice point of difference worth considering.JOBE WATSON (ESS) MID – $460,900 DT/$555,500 SC – Next 5 Games: WCE (A), PORT (H), WBD (A), GWS (A), HAW (H)
– Recent Scores: 144, 166, 73, 79, 130
I wouldn’t let the ASADA circus impact on your decision to get Jobe in. He’s dropped $90k+ from his starting value, and after a nice purple patch, which saw his price rise above $600k; he’s back down in the $500ks and great value. He has a nice run coming up, including Hawthorn, which he has a sensational record against (120, 57, 150, 140 in last 4).
He’s an ultra premium, and if the investigations were going to impact on both Jobe’s and Essendon’s season, it would have already done so. They’ve both shown they can battle on through the adversity and because of this; I would either keep him, or get him. At that price, you’d be mad not too…unless they do keep him out of side.JOE DANIHER (ESS) FWD – $143,200 DT/$154,500 SC – Next 5 Games: WCE (A), PORT (H), WBD (A), GWS (A), HAW (H)
– Recent Scores: 55, 98
The father/son gun has finally arrived and cherry-ripe for selection. This 201cm freak of nature has shown plenty in just his 2 games of AFL footy and looks right at home. Against the Suns he had 17 touches, 8 marks, 3 goals and 98 SC points.
He’s the perfect option to send a Dwyer/Macaffer to, who both seem to be ready to trade out. BUYER BEWARE: he is a chance to miss this week for Bellchambers, just depends on how Essendon want to structure their rucks v Cox/Naitanui.COLIN GARLAND (DEF) MELB – $343,300 DT/$462,000 SC – Next 5 Games: WBD (H), SYD (H), GEE (A), BRIS (H), NM (H)
– Recent Scores: 80, 64, 114, 107, 144
Another defender that has flown under the radar, Colin Garland, has hit a purple patch that does require some consideration. His past 3 weeks have seen scores of 114, 107 and 144. These scores have been the result of an increase in disposals, mark and tackles. He too, like McKenzie, is one that kicks the ball significantly more than they handball.
Many will ignore Garland given the team he is playing for, and rightfully so, but just reckon he’s one to keep an eye on if he keeps his form up, would be the ultimate point of difference.
“GET HIM OUT”GRANT BIRCHALL (HAW) DEF- $334,200 DT/$420,700 SC – Next 5 Games: Out injured.
– Recent Scores: 74, 30, 118, 105, 40
Thanks for the tease Grant. I was sucked in by your recent form, thought you were coming good, and BANG! you’re out injured for next month and a bit. Don’t hesitate, rid yourself of the drama and get him out!NICK VLAUSTIN (RICH) MID/DEF – $357,700 DT/$405,700 – Next 5 Games: STK (H), NM (A), GC (H), FRE (H), SYD (A)
– Recent Scores: 141, 87, 108, 79, 31
I think it’s time to take the money and run. I’ll confess that I did punt him last week for Tom Mitchell. I read a fair bit into that 79 given his recent scoring form. He returned with a 31 and now seems in some doubt this week to play at all.
I reckon it’s a good time now to turn him into a Watson or another ultra premium that his hit the bottom. He’s yielded significant value, and quickly too. Won’t be the last time we have you in our SuperCoach careers, but for now, it’s time to part ways while on top.SHANNON HURN (WCE) DEF – $321,400 DT/$443,700 SC – Next 5 Games: On sidelines
– Recent Scores: Irrelevant.
Another one who will see some serious time on sidelines, and it’s a shame because he’s been scoring very well this season. Could’ve been a nice trade-up option from Birchell. Ahh well, not to worry. Trade him out if you got him.
Here’s the list of this week’s key breakevens. Note: they are approximates, and not the actual figure.
– Jarryd Roughead (HAW), BE 86
– Lance Franklin (HAW), BE 68
– Josh J Kennedy (WCE), BE 88
– Kieren Jack (SYD), BE 99
– Tom Mitchell (SYD), BE -79
– Dean Terlich (MELB), BE 53
– Colin Garland (MELB), BE 29
– Dustin Martin (RICH), BE 81
– Michael Barlow (FRE), BE 100
– Matthew Leuenberger (BRIS), BE 65
– Joel Selwood (GEE), BE 39
– Mark Blicavs (GEE), BE 18
– Bryce Gibbs (CARL), BE 54
– Matthew Kreuzer (CARL), BE 77
– Kyle Martin (COLL), BE -43
– Scott Pendlebury (COLL), BE 99
– Heath Shaw (COLL), BE 55
– Dane Swan (COLL), BE 54
– Joe Daniher (ESS), BE -59
– Brendon Goddard (ESS), BE 78
– Patrick Ryder (ESS), BE 76
– Gary Ablett (GCS), BE 118
– Trent McKenzie (GCS), BE 59
– Josh P Kennedy (SYD), BE 135
– Nick Riewoldt (STK), BE 119
– Ben McEvoy (STK), BE 114
– Will Minson (WBD), BE 135
– Brett Goodes (WBD), BE 91
– Tom Rockliff (BRIS), BE 113
– Jimmy Bartel (GEE), BE 139
– Mitch Robinson (CARL), BE 152
– Sam Dwyer (COLL), BE 120
Thanks for the questions this week. Pub was a little quiet, but after the community party, many won’t be seeing alcohol for a long time. Here are this week’s big questions.
ANSWER: I’d hold for a week if you got Birchell, and deal with him first. He HAS to go, no questions about that. Once that’s dealt with, I would see if Goodes is playing this week, and if you’ve got stable bench cover for finals. If you don’t, I would possibly keep for the bench has Higgo has suggested in podcast. If you do, however, and you have traded Birchell, then I would move him to Goddard for mine – better SuperCoach scorer than Heppell.
ANSWER: Yeah good move, again, provided you have safe bench over for finals. I like Hunter’s JS more than Martins, but yet again, I said that about Hrovat. Hunter will be nice moneymaker in a couple of weeks, and will enable you to move up to that final premium. However, if you’ve got plenty of trades left for finals, execute that trade because you can trade out those rested if need be. It depends on circumstance, but I would execute it.
ANSWER: As I said in “Get Him In” above, I wouldn’t worry about it affecting Jobe. The only thing that will stop him is if he doesn’t get a game. Both he and Essendon have shown plenty all season with this lingering. You wouldn’t know when they had their player interviews if you look at their performances. Back Jobe in, he’s a champion for a reason. If they decide to ban him or he doesn’t play (highly unlikely), then give 2nd thought. But as we stand now, pick him with confidence.
Well, that’s it for this week’s Flesh. Make sure you send any last minute questions to me at @Mr_Crimmins on Twitter, or in the comment box. All the best in the first weekend of freedom, post-byes.