FLESH FOR FANTASY – Bye 3, ROUND 13
Well, the toughest of the 3 bye weeks are upon us. The beast is licking its lips and ready to shred our scores apart. We’ll lose the likes of Gary Ablett, Scott Pendlebury, Patrick Dangerfield and Brendon Goddard in a week that could smash our overall averages.
But for most of us, we’re not thinking about that and focused on getting in Barry Mitchell’s son, Tom. He will hit the bubble this week and could be one of the most traded in players in SuperCoach history. On top of Tom, a number of premiums hit a juicy value worth considering as upgrades or band aids in this week of carnage.
We can see the end of the battle, but the biggest hurdle of the period is trying to break our spirits. Put your head down, grind it out and come of these bad times better coaches.
“GET HIM IN”TOM MITCHELL (SYD) MID – $108,500 DT/$115,900 SC – Next 5 Games: PORT (A), CARL (H), MELB (A), GWS (H), WCE (A)
– Recent Scores: 87, 126
If you’re unaware of this bloke’s exploits, then you’ve been living under a rock. This kid is a GUN!! 87 SC points in a half on debut, then backed it up with 31 touches and 10 tackles in his 2nd game. He’s been a stat hog through his juniors as well, which included 52 and 56 touches prior to making his debut. Shouldn’t need convincing, get this guy in!!JOSH P KENNEDY (SYD) MID – $445,500 DT/$544,900 SC – Next 5 Games: PORT (A), CARL (H), MELB (A), GWS (H), WCE (A)
– Recent Scores: 143, 151, 56, 126, 86
Last week Freo was the flavour of the week, this week it’s Sydney. Tom’s superstar teammate Josh Kennedy is another one worth considering. He’s dropped almost $100k from start of the season and for a player who can score that big, irrespective of his current form, he has to be looked at. If you look at his really big scores this season, they’ve come against quality opposition – 136 v NM, 143 v HAW, 151 v FREO, 126 v ESS. He’s a proven SuperCoach gun and given he’s started slipping a bit with a 56 and 86 in his past 3 weeks, the bye may have come at a good time. The Swans, bringing in Kurt Tippett this week, will start to crank it up a notch like they did last season and Kennedy will be a beneficiary of this. Worth looking at.JOEL SELWOOD (GEE) MID – $430,600 DT/492,800 SC – Next 5 Games: BRIS (A), FRE (H), HAW (H), MELB (H), ADEL (A)
– Recent Scores: 100, 83, 91, 73, 137
Started the season at $630,000, Joel Selwood has dipped under $500,000 and is now worth considering. To get a player of his calibre and potential at such a price is almost a steal. Geelong still have 6 more games at Simmons Stadium, and while Geelong’s run through the finals is tough, Selwood’s big scores are like Kennedy – come against the good sides. Much like Sydney, Geelong have been coasting their way through the season and reckon they’ll want to start playing themlves into serious form come September so expect Geelong to do their restings now, and prepare for a big 2nd half of the year. His form doesn’t grant consideration, but that price does.GRANT BIRCHALL (HAW) DEF – $354,100 DT/$415,800 SC – Next 5 Games: WCE (H), BRIS (H), GEE (A), PORT (A), WBD (H)
– Recent Scores: 59, 74, 30, 118, 105
Another one worth considering purely on value. Has dropped $90k from start of season, and after starting the season like a house on fire, he hit a significant form slump that has seen his price dropped dramatically. However, his last 2 games has seen a return to form which should be noted. He’s had 25 and 23 touches, but his I50s are back up to where they were at the start of the season, suggesting that Hawthorn are letting him off the lease a bit and freeing him up. This is having a positive effect on his SuperCoach output, and given his bargain basement price, should be considered this week.
“GET HIM OUT”BRENT MACAFFER (COLL) FWD – $369,300 DT/$355,300 SC – Next 5 Games: BYE, PORT (A), CARL (A), ADEL (H), GC (A)
– Recent Scores: 62, 79, 100, 89, 39
With many of the significant forwards all done with their byes, it’s time to send Macaffer to a premium. With a BE of 92, there’s a risk now that he could start leaking money. He’s run his race and been good value (considering I wrote him off earlier in the season), however, with the cash available it’s time to send him to a premium forward and continue locking away our sides for finals time. Another possible option is to downgrade him to Joe Daniher, who would make you some quick-fire cash to spend. Whichever path you choose, with the bye looming this week, it’s time to say goodbye and thanks to Brent Macaffer.JAEGER O’MEARA (GCS) MID – $408,100 DT/$424,600 SC – Next 5 Games: BYE, ADEL (H), BRIS (A), RICH (A), COLL (H)
– Recent Scores: 109, 74, 72, 90, 114
I love this boy. The Jaegerbomb is going to be so special it’s not funny. This is why it hurts me to say it’s time to say goodbye. Don’t get me wrong; I believe he still has a bit of scoring potential left. However, given he has the bye this week, I just feel it’s time to send him to a consistent premium who will score you 100+ every week. Keeping him wouldn’t be a bad option, as he’ll still score you high 80s, low 90s, but I just feel given his inability to score massive, might be time to part ways for an ultra premium. Don’t worry, have a feeling we’ll be crossing paths with his jet for many years to come.
Here are this week’s break evens to consider when trading. A few popular players are starting to either hit the ceiling, or about to go up in value. As the classics say, it’s all about knowing when to hold them and when to fold them.
– Lance Franklin (HAW), BE 84
– Grant Birchell (HAW), BE 34
– Brett Deledio (RICH), BE 69
– Brent Staker (BRIS), BE 28
– Hamish Hartlett (PORT), BE 81
– Ryan Griffin (WBD), BE 88
– Brett Goodes (WBD), BE 59
– Joel Selwood (GEE), BE 95
– Jimmy Webster (STK), BE 40
– Kieren Jack (SYD), BE 99
– Jarryd Roughead (HAW), BE 130
– Trent Cotchin (RICH), BE 145
– Dustin Martin (RICH), BE 120
– Nathan Fyfe (FRE), BE 147
– Pearce Hanley (BRIS), BE 159
– Tom Rockliff (BRIS), BE 144
– Jimmy Bartel (GEE), BE 139
– Steve Johnson (GEE), BE 170
– Mark Blicavs (GEE), BE -16
– Nick Riewoldt (STK), BE 144
– Adam Goodes (SYD), BE 162
– Josh Kennedy (SYD), BE 125
– Nic Naitanui (WCE), BE 161
Finally, thank you for you questions. There’s a lot of coaches out there feeling the pain of the byes and the questions you have are probably ones many out there have too. Here are this week’s burning questions.
ANSWER: Interesting one. Was ok in debut against Carlton, but against the Suns was awesome – 17 touches, 8 marks, 3 goals and 98 SC points. After the bye, Essendon play WCE away, then Port, Dogs, GWS. His job security is an issue, however, I’m willing to put whatever I have left on the line and suggest they will stick with him for the next few weeks. Playing him as the forward and pinch hitter ruck has worked so far and given Hurley’s inability to stay fit, they may want to groom him so he’s ready if required in September. Good trade and probably the only chance to dump Macaffer this season for $$$.
ANSWER: The numbers there suggest Selwood, given he’ll most likely go up in value this week. However, I believe Kieren Jack is someone worth considering. Given how this season has panned out and going by form, you’d go with Kieren Jack. Sides also seem to be playing a really tight tag on Josh Kennedy, which frees up Kieren Jack, Hannebery and the likes. However, on a value standpoint, Selwood is rock bottom and cherry ripe to get in. But I’d go Kieren Jack based on consistency.
ANSWER: Both of those good options, but for mine, I reckon cheaper than both of those and with a good run home, Dusty Martin is worth considering. Never been his biggest fan fantasy wise, but he’s been very solid this season and after 2 disappointing games before the 126 v Adelaide, he has become good value. Richmond’s run home is well stated and he’s shown he can also score against the good sides (115 v Freo, 125 v Geelong). Definitely worth having a look at.
ANSWER: To be honest, I’d hold both this week. You’ll need their scores, especially Goodes given the carnage in the backline. That said, if you require an upgrade to Tom Mitchell, Vlas in the man – that will yield you significant cash and his BE is hitting dangerous levels. No trades, but if require one to get Tom Mitchell in, go Vlas.
ANSWER: A conundrum I had last week. It depends on the risk you’re willing to take. Cotchin is a safe 100+ majority of weeks, and his 103 v Adelaide came off a not so impressive stat line. Kennedy, however, can score big when he wants. Given the price he started at and the potential for massive scores – I’ll go Kennedy for mine, just though. Can’t go wrong with either.
Anyway community, all the best this weekend. There will be pain. There will be hurt. But at the end of it, we’ll be better for it. Remember to send questions my way at @Mr_Crimmins on Twitter, and remember, we’re in this together.