Good day community and welcome to this week’s edition of “Tight Arse … Wednesday”. Just doesn’t quite have the same ring to it, does it?
Well as you can see we are coming to you a little later this week due to round 10 running into Monday Night Football. I’m not a fan of this Monday Football, and if any of you are similar to me, you too would have been up until 12 midnight waiting for round 11 to open. Well we couldn’t go to bed not knowing where we are ranked and how we moved up or down on those league ladders.
So I know it’s round 11 and a lot of you might be thinking what’s the point of trading in any players this week when they are going to miss either round 12 or round 13? The general consensus out there is to hold this week and start to upgrade after round 12. While I do see the logic in this argument and depending on your team and your ranking, whether you are chasing a league win or you are trying to set a PB in the overall rankings, there is strong merit to this approach.
However like most things in this wonderful game there can be a counterargument that would say trade, trade, trade this week.
The argument that if you trade this week the player you bring in will miss either next week or the week after is quite an unusual one for me. The very same thing could have been said last week going into round ten and yet I didn’t see anybody sayings don’t trade in anyone this week because they will miss over the bye rounds. Every player you have traded in so far this year will have a bye so my line of thinking is if you can improve your team this week by trading, then by all means trade. As long as you put in the slightest thought to your trades this week you shouldn’t adversely affect your side in the coming weeks. For example if you currently have 21 players that will play in round 12 and only 17 players that will play round 13, bring in a round 12 upgrade this week and not a round 13 upgrade. That will mean you still have 18 scoring players for round 12 and will have increased your round 13 scoring players to the full complement of 18.
So after saying all that, are there any tight arse selections for us to choose from this week? You bet there are! This week I will be looking at a couple of top echelon players, who both have fallen over $130,000 from the start of the year.
Current Price $491,300
Priced to Average 95.58
Bye Round 12
Community I didn’t lie when I said we are looking at the top echelon this week. Before I go any further I just want to remind you what Joel Selwood has produced in SC since his debut season in 2007. He showed great improvement in his first two years and elevated to an Elite Premium in 2009 where he has been ever since.
Like most of the top fantasy players he is a tough inside midfielder who wins his own ball and dominates in the fantasy relevant stats finishing in the top ten for contested possessions, clearances, tackles and inside 50’s. Joel is also a very creative player when he is given (or makes) time and space and is currently ranked 5th for goal assists. He also has a very good knack of drawing fouls and has averaged over 2.2 free kicks a game every year since 2008. The only couple of drawbacks you could have with Joel is that he doesn’t kick a lot of goals and that he has only managed to complete a full season once.
So why is he so cheap now?
Well to be honest this one has me scratching my head a little. This was the man who has been a model of consistency over the last number of years. In 2010 he only dropped below 100 on six occasions, in 2011 he only dropped below the tonne on four occasions (non-injury effected) and last year he only went under 100 three times. Yet this year already he has dropped below 100 on five occasions, three of which were over the past three consecutive weeks. Hence his current price of$491,300. So where is it all going wrong and what might be the cause? Let’s compare his stats from this year so far with his best year of 2012.
Straight away we can see that his disposal numbers are down by over 3 a game which would contribute to his current run of bad form. However the one stat that jumps out at me the most and it also gives a glue as to why he is down on his numbers from last year is his time on ground. Last year he played 87.7% on the field where this year that stat has come down to just 83.5%. It might not seem that much but that would equate to 5mins less on the field. This is telling me that Joel must be suffering from some sort of injury and isn’t 100% match fit. Digging a little deeper Joel only played 59% of the game in round 8 against Port Adelaide which would be very unusual if he wasn’t carrying some sort of niggle. Although he played 85% on the ground last week, he was a long way from his best and may just have wanted to be a part of the historic first game under the lights at Simonds Stadium.
So what I’m saying is there is a good chance all this analysis might be for nothing as I believe that Joel might be given an extra week off and be rested for this weekend’s clash with GWS. If that is the case I will have to revert you fine folks back to this article before round 13 because a fit and firing Joel Selwood would be a must have in everyone’s team. The added bonus is you’d be picking him up at under $500,000. An absolute steel. If he is selected this weekend I would still think he is a very good pick up even if I think the bye will do him the world of good and he still has quite a high breakeven. The fact that Geelong are playing GWS would almost guarantee he would be one of ten or so that will tonne up against the hapless GWS. Although in saying that Jobe Waston and Marc Murphy owners might disagree. (Jobe 66, Marc 73)
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2013 Predicted Status: Elite
Predicted Average from here on out: 111-115pts
Final Word: Will bounce back from a poor run of late. I suspect he is carrying a minor injury and the bye will do him the world of good. Expect to see the output we have come to expect from him return from round 13 on. Might be a better option after the bye but with GWS this week I wouldn’t be afraid to go now. That is if he is selected.
Current Price $523,300
Priced to Average 101.8
Bye Round 13
Community, just like how he fits in his jumper, Dane has managed to squeeze into this week’s tight arse segment (Sorry Dane, you aren’t even … that … never mind). Even though he is still an expensive prospect for some I would like to put it in prospective that he is now $152,000 cheaper than he was at the start of the year and may very well be as cheap as you are going to get him for the rest of the year. Again before we jump in let me remind you what Dane has produced in SC over the last few years. Let there be no underestimating his ability to score big as indicated by finishing the last four years with Super Elite status.
You might remember I did a little piece on Swan in the preseason where I said;
“This guy is an enigma. He doesn’t have a great deal of pace, is far from an elite kick but yet year after year he produces the goods both in terms of his on the field performances and in what is important to us, fantasy scoring. Dane Swan could probably play a whole game in the corner pocket and still come out with 40 processions. He just reads the game so well and the football always finds a way into his hands. A sign of a great player.”
I still stand by all of the above and I actually have to laugh a little when it was stated over the weekend that Swan had been quite the week only amassing 23 disposals. It’s funny that any 23 disposal game can be considered quite but in Swan’s case it is true. Since 2009 Swan has averaged over 30 disposals a game coming in with a career high of 34.5 last season. Just remarkable numbers. His efficiency was never all that flash but when you are getting that much of the ball it doesn’t seem to matter. What is also a miss conception with Swan is that he is solely an outside player that sheep dogs at the back of the packs.
While this does account for a lot of his possessions he also knows how to find his own ball and actually averaged 13.5 contested possessions a game last year. That’s 40% of all his possessions being contested. Not bad for a sheep dog! *tongue in cheek.
So why is he so cheap now?
Well a little like Joel above, Dane has come off a run of below par scores all going through his rolling average at once and accounting for his sudden and shape fall in price. The table below will show that Dane was tracking along at his usual rate up until round 8 against Geelong. An 84 in this game followed by a 67 against Sydney then resulted in his average and price taking a plunge.
At first I was thinking that Swan too must be carrying some form of injury but then interestingly enough Swan said in a post-match interview that Collingwood had been trying something knew against Geelong and Sydney and playing him as a forward and that he was happy to be back in the middle against Brisbane. This would explain the lower than average disposal numbers in both those games and add to this that is disposal efficiency was at a season low of 57% against the Swans and you can account for his season low score of 67. To give you some idea of how unusual that score is for Dane Swan you would have to go all the way back to round 7 in 2009 to find a lower score, where on that occasion he posted a 66.
We can also use Dane’s past stats to draw comparisons and trend lines for what might happen for the rest of the current season. In 2011 he had four consecutive scores below 100 from rounds 8 through to 11. At the end of round 11 he had a season average of 115.7. He would then go on to average 127.6 for the rest of the year.
The only concern I have with Swan is that he is likely to be rested at some stage during the year and might very well be given a two week break from round 12 through there bye in round 13. Again I revert you back to my preseason article where I said,
“I think he will be managed very carefully to ensure he is in top form for Collingwood’s assault on the Flag. Collingwood play Gold Coast in round 17 and GWS in round 18 before a very tricky run home that includes Essendon, Sydney away, Hawthorn, West Coast and North in the last five games. I expect Swan to be rested in either round 17 or 18 and possibly once earlier during the year and as others around him improve will see a slightly reduced average for 2013. It is for those reasons I will be looking elsewhere for midfielders in my initial team for 2013”
Note I stated in my initial team. My dilemma now is not whether I want to bring Swan in but whether now’s the right time to bring him in or do I try hold off until after his round 13 bye. I fear that he will be rested next week against the Bulldogs in which case he will still be around the same price in round 14. However if he does play the Dees this week and the Doggies the next he could very well be back up over $550,000 and might not be as easy to bring in.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2013 Predicted Status: Elite
Predicted Average from here on out: 118-122pts
Final Word: Unusual low scores can be equated to Collingwood trying and failing with playing Swan forward. Will surely be back in the middle where he belongs and back to producing monster scores. At this price I am very tempted to bring him in this week despite my fears he may miss a couple of games later on.
Mick the Mad Irishman
Mad as a cut snake, tight as a fishes arse, but one hell of a fantasy footballer. Click here for more from the Mad Irishman
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