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Tight Arse Tuesday – Round 10

Published by Jock on

Supercoach strategy with MickGood day community and welcome to this week’s edition of “Tight Arse Tuesday”. 

Sorry if I’m a bit sloppy with my sentences, but I’m writing just after having polished off the last Carlton Draft from my victorious slab. That’s right community, I’m up and about this week after a great win over an arch rival at the weekend. This is what this game is all about! Unlucky “Maso’s Muppets”, but I’m sure we will meet again in finals.

So let’s get into it shall we. Plenty of cheapies out there in Supercoach land, even if there isn’t quite the same buzz as we had with Priddis and Franklin over the last couple of weeks.

Matthew Kreuzer

Average 78.5
Breakeven 57
Current Price $380,000
Priced to Average 73.9
 

I know I say this a lot, but what a difference a few weeks can make in the fantasy football world. After the first two rounds I was watching Matthew Kreuzer dominate as Carlton’s number one ruckman and was contemplating making a corrective trade before round three to bring him in. Six weeks on and he gets a feature in my “Tight Arse Tuesday” column coming in at ridiculously low price of $380,000.

Let have a look at some of his numbers. The tables below show his scores from this year and his averages since his debut season.

Kreuzer Supercoach
As you can see Matthew started the season very promisingly with two scores over 100 and had a healthy average of 111 after the first two rounds. It looked like he had taken his game to the next level and was building on a very respectable average of 92.35 from 2012. This number one draft pick was entering his fifth season at the age of 24, appeared to be top dog in the rucking department, and all the signs were saying “Breakout Contender”.

So why is he so cheap now?

Well I’m sure you’ve all picked up a recurring theme in most “Tight Arse Tuesday” selections and Matty is no different.

That score of 35 that came against Geelong in round 3 was an injury affected score after he was subbed out at quarter time with a cracked thumb and just 1 possession to his name. He was then rushed back in round 7 to give the Blues some sort of forward target due to Jarrad Waite’s ill-discipline in the previous round. Watching that game it was clear that Matthew had little confidence in his thumb and looked pretty lost as a lead up target inside Carlton’s attacking 50. He only managed 6 possessions and just as many hit outs for a low score of 42. Remarkably this was actually Kreuzer’s lowest (non-injury affected) Supercoach score since his debut season back in 2008, which in my option indicated that he was brought back probably a week too early. This isn’t a score we are likely to see again anytime soon though, as he seems to be building back into form with scores of 80 and 92 over the last two rounds.

Now before I go and get you all excited in thinking Matthew is going to start producing big scores of 110+ like he did in the first two rounds, I’m afraid the dynamic has changed since then and I don’t foresee his numbers getting that high.

You see in the first three rounds Mick Malthouse preferred to play just one recognised ruckman and Kreuzer was Mick’s number one choice over Robbert Warnock as I guess he felt Kreuzer offered more around the ground. However since Kreuzer has gone down, Warnock has been exceptional for the Blues and has proven that he is one of the best tap ruckmen in the completion. He has played his role so well that it has made it very hard for Malthouse to drop him and has forced his hand into playing them both. This has meant that Kreuzer will play predominately as a forward who will pinch hit in the ruck and therefore won’t get the opportunity to contest as many ball ups as he would be getting as the sole ruckman.

However I still think Kreuzer is a great option at his current price. We must remember he did average 92 last year playing in the same side as Warnock and I don’t think he’ll be too far away from those numbers again this season. With the bye (GWS) this week he is likely to tonne up and this will most likely be last time he will below $400,000 for the rest of the year.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2013 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 89-94pts

Final Word

With Sam Jacobs causing so many coaches strife this season and his performance at the weekend being the straw that broke the camel’s back for many, I’d be strongly looking at Kreuzer as a very solid option this week. Likewise he could also come into many calculations with the injury to Luenburger and for all those that are still relying on Rookies in your rucks. Seriously Consider.

Stay tuned…

Mick the Mad Irishman

Mad as a cut snake, tight as a fishes arse, but one hell of a fantasy footballer. Click here for more from the Mad Irishman

And make sure you follow him on twitter https://twitter.com/Da_Mad_Irishman


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Brett

I do like the idea of downgrading lionburger

billericay

Jock, our father, do we really want to be trading in a player who won't become a premium (keeper) at this stage of the season?

FrontPocket

I'm going to say no, but am willing to be corrected by Jock of the Reynolds.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

It really depends on your team guys and there are certain variables that would make Kreuzer a solid option .. Remember Luenberger is only averaging 94 so it could be a like for like swap and pocket the extra cash to spend on more urgent areas of the field.

However if you are happy with the rest of your side then I'd be looking to go big in the ruck and bring in Nic Nat for Luenberger

In my case it might be worth my while to bring in the Kruezer to insure I have 18 playing players in rounds 11 and 12 .. just another complicated scenario people must consider

mclegend

What do you think about burger to Kruezer and terlich to duffield.

I would love to get Nic Nat but i already have cox, priddis, shuey and Kennedy. How many is too many from one team?

Dean

I'm in a similar situation having Priddis, Shuey, Cox & LeCras however one can argue that having more players from the one team, in our case WCE could be a blessing because there BYE round is in round 12 so after that 1 week of sacrifice they will always be available providing they don't get injured obviously.

I'm with Jock Re: Nic Tat paddy whack, he is the top ruckman in our beautiful game. So something worth considering.

Shaneoo88

Lecras and Cox are the ones I would let go. If anything replace Cox with Nic Nat

mclegend

Im more concerned in being burnt if they have a bad game and have multiple players under perform on the same round.

dools

Priddis is a solid stepping stone to super/ultimate Elite
Cox is a Premium Ruc and Goal kicker do not trade
Shuey now that Dog Dog is back is lighting it up do not trade yet
The Frog should have got the flick at least 2 weeks ago unless you had different priorities
Dog Dog is the ultra Premium with DPP so if youcan replace LeCras with him
Just My opinion not Knowing your Fwd Ruc structures
Cheers

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Depends McLegend – if you are looking for a good ranking this game is all about averages so I'd have no problem bringing in Nic Nat. I have the same thing going on in my team with four west coast eagles.

You must remember that the odds are actually pretty low that all of those players would have a bad score in the same week as they are the top scoring players for the eagles and even on a bad day at least two of them would score well

mclegend

Also Warnock had 1 disposal for the entire game last week, surely Kruezer will work his way back to the No.1 ruck spot

@Da_Mad_Irishman

I hope so Mclegend

Keith

how good an option is luke ball?

dools

Hi Keith
Have you got a stratagey and trades up your sleeve (More the n 14)? Ball may be a coin generator but Beware the returning player. ALa Daisy Thomas!!!!

@Da_Mad_Irishman

agrree with dools on this one Keith – too risky and not a super scorer. Will make coin but not all that much so it would be a no from me.

oliver

Luenburger and Terlich out for Staker and Enright, leaving me 230,000 in the bank. I could then bring in Dixon/ Hibberd for Stevenson the next week. Does this look like a good move?

spinnerau1

who are your other rucks?

oliver

I Have Bellchambers, with Blicavs and Sinclair on the bench. I have Cox and Naitanui in the forward line so i was going to swing one of them forward.

spinnerau1

I traded Bellchambers out for Minson last week…BC just wasnt doing it for me…..I have Lionburger …reluctant to trade him just yet. Though I have Rowe and Currie on the bench, doing nothing!!

spinnerau1

So to answer your question….I dont think it's a bad move that your suggesting!!

oliver

I keep on meaning to get rid of bellchambers but i either seem to get an injury or he gets a hundred and stayes in for another week. It seems to be going ina vicious cycle.

FrontPocket

I've been looking at Minson. His output seems pretty solid and consistent and he doesn't get mentioned a great deal hereabouts, so might be a decent PoD.

Fabian

I currently have a bit of a ruck dilemma with Leuy out!

My team looks like this atm

R: Mumford, Luey (Gawn, Rowe)
FWD: Cox, Kennedy, Buddy, Zorko, Lecras, Macaffer (Staker, Mayes)

335k with Thomas traded down to staker this round.

Looking to trade out Leuy for a ruck or fwd (swinging cox into ruck)

Cheap Wise…
What are your thoughts on Ivan Maric? 472 000, BE of 117 which is achievable (although they do play the Weagles).
or
Tom Hawkins at 381 500 who won't be any cheaper with a BE of 46?

I'm thinking NicNat and Stevie J, although scoring very well, are a bit over priced and are at risk of being rested come the point end of the season.

Love to hear your thoughts

Devan

i would personally keep burger, provided he isnt out longer than three weeks, swing rowe into the forwardline for cox, put cox as starting ruckman and bench rowe for staker just my 2 cents

Fabian

Only problem is that's it's been reported 4-6 that's a bit to long for my liking to hold him

dools

Go with what your thinking NicNat and The Stevie J Show
are not overpriced watch this space Stevie and DoggDog to dominate the comp in their respective positions, Yu don't have and the opposition does your 300pts behind!

JohnDoe

I did the Luey down to Kreuzer looking for a POD before this article, damn you Mick! Lol. Also did Daisy down to Staker. That leaves me with 850k in the bank for a TRIPLE upgrade after round 12. Looking at 2 of Birchall/Duffield/Enright/Gibbs and either Swan/Cotchin/Selwood for my Mids. Leaves my team like this for 2 weeks.

Backs: Goddard, Hartlett, Heppell, Goodes, Thurlow, Telrich(injured) subs Docherty, Webster.

Mids: Ablett, Pendle, JPK, Dangerfield, Watson, Moloney, Omera, Wines subs Vlasty(E covering Telrich) Crouch.

Rucks: Goldstein, Kreuzer subs Hannath, Gawn

Forwards : Cox, Martin, Kennedy, Roughead, Monfries, Staker sun’s Maccaf, Mayes.

Fabian

Just to let you know, I tried to do the same thing as you, using a DPP to cover as emergency in a different line and it didn't work. (mayes in FWD to cover fyfe a few rounds back)

Maso

hope ya choked on the beer mate 🙂 i will be seeing you in the finals to take back the title 😉

@Da_Mad_Irishman

lol – no still here Maso ..

spinnerau1

Terlich our Staker in, LeCras out NicNat in, $221,900 left in the warchest……need to look at beefing up my defenders as of next week!

knackers

hey guys , do i stick with the trade of lecras to staker , wines to watson or do i trade out luenberger ?? im thinking of leaving leunberger on my bench so when i start upgrading i can use his coin to assist with that , what u guys think ?? i have cox and blicavs in my ruck division

Shaneoo88

Luey's price will stay the same next week. I think in your situation you should stick with the trades you made and move out Luey next week.

Knackers

Just saw that Rockliff is out also , my team is decimated with injuries , I think I'll keep rockliff and hope it isn't major , thanks for the advice

Footy

What about good old Zac Clarke for big Leu? Freo are down and out in the Ruck department:
Sanders out until at least round 14
Griffen out for the season.

Therefore, I believe Clarke will be a solid investment doing most if not all the ruck work. And on the bubble with a 92.5 average.

spinnerau1

Big Lue out for 4-6 weeks now? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm THAT changes the ball game!!

MooseKnuckle

T/U Leuenberger – Kreuzer, Evans – Mitchell
Or
T/D Leuenberger – Pyke, Evans – S Selwood.

Help!

gaveday

Panic not. Leuy can sit on the bench for 1 week. It's money in the bank. Kruez is no go for me. I'm trading Daw to Nic Nat. Yes. that's what I'm doing and can afford to do.
I'll be downgrading Leuy to Gorringe next week and using Leuy as the cash cow we all promised ourselves he would be before rd1. Bank around 300k and inject into my backline or stuff it in my already jammed midfield
(currently abblett,JPK,danger,delids,watson,priddis,gibbs,omera)

Leuy = cash. Nic nat = legend. If you have the means you know what to do.

Dean

Well said, I concur totally. For those who have both LUENBURGER & DAW your better off trading out DAW for NAITANUI or whoever else you want in your ruck because DAW will plummet in price dramatically as his breakeven is 123

Shaneoo88

So I have Luey out, Rockliff out and Terlich out. Has their been an update on Terlich's injury? Really annoying me that I still can't find if his rubs are broken or not.

I think I can cover Terlich for one week, am still bringing in Staker.

Max Gawn is a player I was ready to trade out…should I keep him or follow through with trading him out?

(Gawn out, Rowe subbed to r3, Staker into fwd line.)

Shaneoo88

Gone with Luey out, Nic Nat subbed into ruck. Terlich out, sub Goodes down back and bring in Selwood.

Rocky

I have the exact same issue , not sure what to do yet haha , lions have the bye next weeks so hopefully rocky is back after that , we all know what quads are like. Look at beams :/

James

Hey Mick,

In a bit of trouble with my ruck and forward line can you help?

I have Leuenburger as my number 2 ruck but is now out for 4-6 weeks. Ben McEvoy is my starting ruckman with Dean Cox in my forward line but can swing him into the ruck. If I trade Leuenburger for Naitanui(who seems the obvious choice) I will have 3 West Coast players in the ruck and forward line as I have Lecras as well. I also have Tom Rockliff in my forward line who is out for 2 weeks. If I leave my forward line as is I will play with Macaffer, Staker, Mayes and Stringer on the field. Really weak if you ask me.

So should I trade to help the rucks or trade to help the forward line?

Cheers

Shaneoo88

Stick with Rockliff. He will only miss 1 game as his bye is in round 11. Get nic Nat in and look to move out Lecras ASAP. Could possible move Lecras to Hawkins for example

@Da_Mad_Irishman

James who is in your current ruck and forward line ??

James

My ruck line is McEvoy, Leuenburger (Rowe and Currie) and my forward line is Zorko, Rockliff, Cox, Lecras, Mays, Neade, Stringer, Macaffer. This is with no trades this week.

Dolls

All 4 of the rookie forwards is too much at this time of the season, even if 2 of those are returning seniors IMO, do something with the fwds.

Sloan

Option 1
Gorridge for Daw and get Robinson for Neade ($153K reserves)

Option 2
Gorridge for Daw and NicNat for Neade (will switch out for Sinclair next week)

Option 3
Gorridge for Daw and Watson for Wines

Option 2 seem best. Blicavs, Sinclair and Rowe other rucks (ouch!). Wines value won't be dropping YET think this is the lowest to get Jobemonster.

Thoughts?

Remy

Is Luke ball a valid trade in option this week guys?

Good or Bad move. Thoughts???

woggyboy1796

i am also asking myself that question because his had 2 good weeks but is he a good enough option, i reckon you take the chance on him because his proved in the past that he is a solid SC player

Jiless

Paddy Ryder looked to be a lock at the start of the year in a lot of teams.

Does anyone think he is a worthy inclusion?

Already have nic nat

John

Leuenberger for Stevie J after switching Ryder to the ruck and Terlich to Staker

Or

Luenberger for Staker after switching Ryder and Terlich to Pendleberry after switching a Defensive Mid to the backline.

Thoughts community?

David

Can Stevie J keep this up

Lester

what to do if you have Terlich, Berger, and Jacobs?? i have Cox to swing into the rucks but so many headaches!!

Dee

What’s Sam Mayes break even this week guys? Should I trade him out?! Please help…

Rocksta

If he's in your midfield yes, if in forward line and cant swing him into your midfield, No as no up and coming viable Forward downgrades

tynanjsmith16

Any good mids or backs for $566,000? looking for a player who is consistent!!

Josh Murray

Josh P Kennedy is crap but he plays for sydney so get him!

macareec

First of all JPK is over 566k so get your facts right mate and second he is a superstar with one bad game. I would gladly pick him any day

tynanjsmith16

Verry Nice J Mizzel

ABC

Sorry Mick, but I'll be staying well away from any player that you recommend.
When you wrote about Hamish Hartlett he started playing awful as well as Andrew Walker who got 141 the week after your article and hasn't scored a ton since (with a worst score for the season 58 last week).
Looks like I'll be trading in Stevie J for him this week which I should have in the first place!

@Da_Mad_Irishman

ABC no need to apologize. I say this all the time but this is a game of many different opinions and it would be very boring if we all had the same opinions and the same team.

I also don't judge a player over a short period of time but instead look at them over the long term. This is a game of averages after all.

On the players above I didn't actually do an article on Hamish Hartlett. I merely said I would get him in over Grant Birchall. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it shows that you should have stayed away from both.

However if you want me to get picky (which I will), since that article
Birchall average 60.75 and missed a game
Hartlett average 78.6 and has played every week

BIG DIFFERENCE

Since I wrote the article about Walker:
Walker has averaged 93

Granted not as good as his 115 average he had at the time but by no means terrible. If he has been your worst performing player in that time period you must have some team. Now you are going to trade him out when the Blues have GWS this week ??

Best of luck with that

Tynan Smith

Any good mids or backs for $566,000? looking for a player who is consistent!!
Help!?

Dee

Hanley in defence or fyfe in the mid. Fyfe hasn't scored under 90 this season and freo's last 4 games of the season are GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and St Kilda.

Tom C

which one barlet, godard, hanbery, selwood

Josh Murray

jole selwood

Jason

Sam Grimley from Hawthorn job security anyone? Looking for a ruck downgrade for Leuey or Daw.

Upgrade not really on the cards as I exhusted my warchest last week getting Nic Nat.

Martin

Nic Nat or Zac Clarke… ?
Im thinking Clarke cause there is money to be made…..
and if he keeps up his scoring…..then he would be a steal……

Curtis

HELP PLEEASE need to get back into top 4 of my league need help with trades heres my team:

DEF: D.Heppell, G.Birchall, B.Goodes, G.Ibbotson, N.Vlastuin, B.Staker (J.Thurlow, J.Pittard)
MID: G.Ablett, S.Pendlebury, B.Goddard, J.Selwood, J.Kennedy, J.O'Meara, O.Wines, M.Evans (S.Mayes, J.Viney)
RUC: T.Goldstein, J.Roughead (M.Blicavs, M.Daw)
FOW: D.Martin, T.Cloke, J.Kennedy, L.Franklin, S.Johnson, S.Dwyer (B, Macaffer, J.Neade)
and $77,700 left over
was thinking selwood and martin out mayes foward and watson and either stanton or hannerbry in but im not sure because of the bye HELP PLEASEEEEEE

Curtis

Or mundy or barlow

Choppers

Hey Curtis, I can't see how trading out 2 premiums and bringing in 2 premiums will help you get back into your top 4. Just sayin'. Maybe you need to look at trading a few cash cows to a few rookies on the bubble, eg: Pittard,Mayes,Blicavs,Neade and make some money to add to your $77k and then upgrade Wines,Dwyer, and/or O'Meara to a premium.

Curtis

who can i trade pittard or neade to and which of those 4 should i trade in for wines

Choppers

The way I see it, you have 3 donuts looming for Rd11, so you can't bring in Mundy or Barlow before then, and you may need to cop 1 or 2. And I don't know how many trades you have left.
If you trade out Mayes or Neade now for Hutchings WCE, you'll have about $227k and one less Rd11 donut. Then all you can do in Rd11 is trade a couple of RD11cash cows to R12,13 players on the bubble if there are any.
Come Rd12, I'd look at trading out either Evans and/or Viney (or Wines) for Hrovat and one of Mundy/Barlow.
And wait til Rd 14 to get Watson in. I'hope that's some help, but bear in mind I haven't put a lot of time into it. You need to sit down and plan around your bye structures. Cheers

Curtis

got 22 trades left

Peter

Hey guys can any 1 explain the bye rounds to me please i know you geth the points from the best 18 but does that 18 mean you get the guys from the bench and u have like 10 fowards scoring and 4 mids and 4 backs and how many trades are you alowed cheers to anyone who can help.

Choppers

Your best 18 can come from any position BUT they must be ON the field in your 22.

Your 8 emergencies do not count towards your best 18.

Curtis

Awesome cheers

Choppers

And 3 trades for Rds 11,12,13.

Curtis

Awesome cheers

Curtis

Watson, Stanton, Barlow, Mundy, or Hannebry along with hutchings

Swans2012

I’m reckon kreuze will average 100 from here on, he’s in and let’s me latch onto pendle and selwood next week for liberatore and omeara

Jake

NEED HELP!!
I am trading daisy down to staker.
Now i have ample cash to trade up either:
1. Monfries to nic nat or stevie j but who?
2. Jager to jobe
Both will fit in my bye plans but i'm worried i will get rid of the wrong player and they will score 100 and the player i get won't score 120+

Sloan

Hey Mick. Great suggets. In fact, would love to go NicNat but feel some tightassedness is in order. Especially since not a lot of solid downgrades (will get Hrovat for Viney after the R11 bye)

What do you feel about Kreuzer for Daw and Mitch Robinson for Wines?

Thanks.

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