FLESH FOR FANTASY – ROUND 9
Hope you had a successful fantasy weekend. High scores are starting to become more and more frequent as sides begin to lock away their premiums as we turn to the make or break period of the season.
Try as we might, all these injuries and suspensions are stopping us from having the perfect teams. Gibbs, Thomas and now rumors that Cox could be rested this weekend is making this great game of ours bloody difficult. Add the byes into the equation and it would be easy for the pea hearted to give up.
But that’s not what we’re about here at the Jock Reynolds’ Fantasy Football Community. Jock laid a hand on my shoulder after I’d been let go as PE teacher at Frankston Tech and was drinking my sorrows away at Seaford RSL. I’m doing the same to you. We can get through this mess together in our quest for SuperCoach glory.
Let us begin.
“GET HIM IN”JOBE WATSON (ESS) MID – $481,400 DT/$571,300 SC – Next 5 Games: RICH (A), SYD (A), CARL (H), GCS (H), BYE
– Recent Scores: 138, 126, 66, 123, 144
This son of a gun has been dropping in value ever since that 66 against GWS entered his rolling average. He has dropped $75,000 since the start of the year and hasn’t been this cheap all year. While his tackles and marks average is down on recent years, he is finding more of the pill, and such drop clearly hasn’t affected his SuperCoach scores. If you need an upgrade option this week in midfield, Jobe is the man. Ignore the 66, have confidence in him cruising past 100 every week.NIC NAITANUI (WCE) RUCK/FWD – $417,700 DT/$575,000 SC – Next 5 Games: GWS (A), RICH (H), STK (A), BYE, HAW (A)
– Recent Scores: 40, 102, 142
Nic Nat is back. After an interrupted pre-season he has stepped in and hasn’t wasted any time scoring. His last 2 full games have seen 2 tonnes, and because of the sub-affected 40, he is now at a delicious price. Nic Nat is a proven scorer, and given Cox’s age, he will heavy the ruck load even more than previous seasons. If a ruck upgrade is required, Nic Nat is your man.LANCE FRANKLIN (HAW) FWD – $380,100 DT/$443,100 SC – Next 5 Games: GCS (H), MELB (A), BYE, CARL (A), WCE (H)
– Recent Scores: 115, 57, 45, 86, 107
I know he was mentioned last week, but this is the time to get Buddy in if you missed out last week getting Priddis. He’s at a season low of $443,100 and now has a BE in the 80s. His form is slowly building if you judge it by scores, an 86 and 107 in past 2 weeks. He’s got a much-improved Gold Coast this week, before playing the hapless Dees the week after. With forwards like Thomas and Neade now out, an upgrade should be considered, and bring Buddy into your calculations, he’s building himself for a big finish to the season.JIMMY WEBSTER (STK) DEF – $108,500 DT/$115,900 SC – Next 5 Games: WBD (H), NM (A), WCE (H), BYE, MELB (H)
– Recent Scores: 33, 85
This week has been all about Jackson Thurlow, and rightfully so given the start he’s had to his career. However, another downgrade option you should consider this week is Jimmy Webster. Who you ask? Jimmy is the bloke who kicked that centimeter perfect pass to Spencer White that has Saints fans licking their lips. Webster has been rated as an elite kick on the St Kilda list, so his disposal efficiency will be high. This means that he’ll score well from minimal touches. Jimmy scored 85 points from just 14 touches (7 of those kicks) in his first full game against Adelaide. Given Watters has conceded the window is bolted shut and will start blooding the kids, and that St Kilda seriously lack quality users of the footy, I like his job security more than Thurlow’s. I’ll be getting Jimmy in, but you can’t go wrong with either.
“GET HIM OUT”MARK LECRAS (WCE) FWD – $387,600 DT/$419,800 SC – Next 5 Games: GWS (A), RICH (H), STK (A), BYE, HAW (A)
– Recent Scores: 124, 64, 117, 65, 47
It’s been an irregular season for Mark LeCras. Coming off a game less 2012, he started the first game with a bang, before breaking his arm and missing a couple of weeks. However, the past 4 weeks (minus the 117 v Dogs) has been considerably disappointing and now it’s time to consider dumping the Frenchman. He’s not working as hard as he was, and scoring just 47 off 15 touches and 1 goal is major concern. His price isn’t crazy low, which means you can easily send up to a premium, or even Buddy if you’re looking cheaper. But unfortunately, I think it’s time to say “Au revior” to this French Eagle.DALE THOMAS (COLL) MID/FWD – $414,800 DT/$452,600 SC – Next 5 Games: Rehab
– Recent Scores: Irrelevant
Out ‘till end of season. Shouldn’t even need to persuade you. Trade.
“ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM”
There are 2 players in the competition who currently have coaches scratching their heads confused. They are the elephants of fantasy football. Try as you might to ignore the issue, it will continue to linger, like a bad smell. It’s time we address the issue. Hamish Hartlett and Grant Birchell.HAMISH HARTLETT
– Next 5 Games: GEE (H), WBD (A), BYE, GWS (A), SYD (H)
– Recent Scores: 140, 144, 53, 29, 77
Bloody Hamish. I will shamefully admit I was one who jumped on the wagon have an amazing start to the year. However, not only has the wagon stopped, but it has fallen apart and now lays scattered across the road. To give you an indication of how bad the fall has been, here is a graph from his player profile on the SuperCoach website.
That’s a significant drop. But why? How can a player go from the dominator to the dominated? His numbers have dropped dramatically since the Power comeback against the Eagles. Hartlett started season with 25+ touches a game and marking the ball for fun. Now he is forced to work harder for the pill, and this was shown through the season high tackles on the weekend. Teams aren’t giving him the license to roam free anymore and this has had a negative result on Hamish’s output. So, what do you do? For mine, I’d HOLD. He is a premium and you got to back your premiums in. Given the byes looming and downgrade potential, on top of premiums hitting bargain prices, the trade is better used elsewhere. Also, his price is now at the point where the money spent to upgrade him is better served on someone else. If he can work through the tag, I’m expecting the early season form and the old Hamish to return….but I’m not holding my breath.GRANT BIRCHALL – Next 5 Games: GCS (H), MELB (A), BYE, CARL (A), WCE (H)
– Recent Scores: 152, 80, 59, 74, 30
Grant is another one who has caused immense pain to coaches nationwide. The started so well and he was playing out of his arse, not dropping below 110 in the first 4 rounds. However, since then he has barely gone near it and the opposition too have worked him out. Looking at his numbers, I’m a bit more optimistic about Grant’s future than Hamish’s. He had 26 touches and 4 marks against the Swans, but his impact on games is telling, which just 30 SC points from 14 touches against GWS. If you got Grant, you definitely HOLD. Hawthorn’s run softens up quite a bit over the next month or so, with Suns and Dees to come in next 2 weeks before the bye. I’m backing him to return to form as the Hawks begin to crank it up another gear.
Here are this week’s BE’s (or, break evens). They are the most important numerical figure in the game, and it almost acts as the pulse for a fantasy footballer. Here are this week’s key BE’s. Note, they are approximates.
– Matthew Priddis (WCE), 81 BE
– Aaron Black (NM), -11 BE
– Majak Daw (NM), -15 BE
– Jobe Watson (ESS), 76 BE
– Matthew Leuenberger (BRIS), 68 BE
– Pearce Hanley (BRIS), 79 BE
– Tom Rockliff (BRIS), 88 BE
– Jarryd Roughead (HAW), 64 BE
– Lance Franklin (HAW), 73 BE
– Jaeger O’Meara (GCS), 52 BE
– Jesse Lonergan (GSC), -39 BE
– Koby Stevens (WBD), 36 BE
– Sam Dwyer (COLL), -31 BE
– Ben Kennedy (COLL), 3 BE
– Brent Macaffer (COLL), 37 BE
– Jackson Thurlow (GEE), -87 BE
– Josh P Kennedy (SYD), 65 BE
– Paul Duffield (FRE), 48 BE
– Jack Hannath (FRE), 11 BE
– Brandon Ellis (RICH), -10 BE
– Nick Vlaustin (RICH), -68 BE
– Brett Deledio (RICH), 46 BE
– Dean Terlich (MELB) -32 BE
– Sam Kerridge (ADEL), -56 BE
– Luke Shuey (WCE), 150 BE
– Dean Cox (WCE), 160 BE
– Mark LeCras (WCE), 140 BE
– Andrew Swallow (NM), 158 BE
– Brent Stanton (ESS), 202 BE
– Grant Birchell (HAW), 158 BE
– Scott Pendlebury (COLL), 172 BE
– Travis Cloke (COLL), 168 BE
– Dane Swan (COLL), 178 BE
– Joel Selwood (GEE), 144 BE
– Kieren Jack (SYD), 127 BE
– Dan Hannebery (SYD), 148 BE
– Andrew Walker (CARL), 155 BE
– Hamish Hartlett (PORT), 157 BE
– Travis Boke (PORT), 157 BE
– Oliver Wines (PORT), 82 BE
– Kane Lucas (CARL), 97 BE
– Trent Cotchin (RICH), 163 BE
– Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL), 137 BE
– Nick Riewoldt (STK), 132 BE
– Ben McEvoy (STK), 132 BE
Without you folk, there would be no community. This is the part of the week where you take over and dominate the forum. As the old saying goes, no question is a silly one and it may be a question 1000s of coaches out there want answered. So thank you once again, love being inundated with your questions. Those who don’t make the article will be answered on Twitter. Anyway, here are the burning questions this week.
ANSWER: Cash in Viney for mine. Generating cash for warchest should be higher a priority than worrying about the captain’s loophole. You don’t want to get stuck with Viney, best to ditch now. Who for? I’d go Jimmy Webster for mine. As mentioned above, beautiful user of the pill and will get plenty of game time as Saints to blood kids.
ANSWER: Goodes poses an interesting proposition. He currently sits at $354,700 and an awkward BE of 54 approximate. Brett hasn’t set the world on fire like he did prior to suspension, and with the bye looming; this could be the chance to cash in. Thurlow/Webster are at the bubble this week, and with Staker the following if you want to keep the DPP, this may be the week to dump them and upgrade to these cheap premiums. However, only dump if you can. Crimmins is getting rid of him this week because he’s no longer in my 6 defenders (provided Shaw and Gibbs return) and it’s just too much coin sitting on the bench. If you’re short on proven defenders, may be worth keeping for another week. Hartlett, on the other hand, has to be backed in. His numbers may be done, but he did lay a season-high number of tackles v Carlton (7), which suggests he is working hard. I’m going to hold purely because he is a premium and I’ll use the trades to upgrade scores elsewhere to cover the slack.
ANSWER: Taking Thurlow, for me, is only super important if you need the cash injection. His job security isn’t great, as I believe his position is “play if you perform”. One poor game may see him out of side give the Cats’ depth, but he’s scoring well enough so that he will rise in price a bit. If you’ve got a Port rookie still in defence, you got to make the trade. If you’ve got a Goodes, you could offload for Thurlow if you’re thinking of upgrading this week. Otherwise you could wait a week and get Staker in next. His JS is almost at 100% I feel. So, the important of getting Thurlow depends on circumstance really.
ANSWER: If you haven’t dumped Wines yet, I’d make that your number 1 priority. The Irishman would be a sensational option, as he is someone I rate significantly. Is it safe to play 3 common rookies? Depends on team structure. Sometimes you have no choice, but generally you want to get the guys in that will score well every week. In your case, given their current form, I reckon you’re safe playing Goodes, Terlich and Vlaustin. HOWEVER, given their lack of experience and what not, sometimes rookies are prone to the odd down game, so ideally, you want to be turning those guys into premiums eventually. But for now, play with confidence.
ANSWER: Ahh the bye rounds. If Gary Ablett is a coaches’ best friend, these stupid byes are our archenemy. I hate them. Jock hates them. We all hate them. I’m not the biggest advocate for the swing sets. Some people build their teams around them. However, they become critical during that round 11-13 period. Who are the DPPs to bring in that may ease the pain you ask? Firstly, I would strongly consider Jarryd Roughead (FWD/RUCK). Not only is he firing on all cylinders right now, but he could be the perfect swing option for the likes of Cox or Nic Nat, who have their byes in round 12. Another player worth looking at is Tom Rockliff (FWD/MID). Again, like Jarryd, has the round 11 bye so he becomes significant for rest of bye weeks. Scoring well himself, but importantly could be a nice swing option for a Dwyer or Bartel. Finally, there is Nick Vlaustin (MID/DEF). Perfect swing set for a Goddard/Heppell/Gibbs and is playing out of his mind right now. Worth looking at. The bye rounds will be discussed in more detail in the coming weeks.
So that’s it for this week’s edition of Flesh for Fantasy. Make sure you keep browsing this great community, and direct any questions to myself at @Mr_Crimmins. All the best for round 9.