FLESH FOR FANTASY – ROUND 7
Can you believe we’re already 7 weeks into the season? Blink, and we’ll be getting ready to host the Poms.
Those who don’t will achieve fantasy success at the end of the season. This game is all about staying across it all 24/7, and I can help keep you in the fantasy loop.
Round 6 was owned by 1 man –
Rodney Patrick Dangerfield. He rewarded those who stuck fat with a 173 if you don’t mind umpire. Some other big scores to come from the round include a 177 from Allen Christensen, a 161 from Scott Pendlebury, 141 from the in-form Andrew Walker, and 150 from Daisy (but we’ll discuss him more later).
Lance Franklin and Nick Dal Santo continued their questionable form, and all of the sudden, become quite juicy trade options in a few weeks. Also, the news both Beau Waters and Bryce Gibbs will miss more games continues this frustrating spell for backlines across the game.
Anyway, time to get stuck into it. Here is this week’s edition of Billy Idol’s favourite article – “Flesh for Fantasy”.
“GET HIM IN”DALE THOMAS (COLL) MID – $411,800 DT/$428,200 SC – Next 5 Games: FRE (A), GEE (H), SYD (H), BRIS (A), MELB (H)
– Recent Scores: 59, 24, 58, 150
Many coaches have been eyeing off this day for quite a while – that is, when Daisy’s price bottoms out and we get ourselves a premium super cheap. After an interrupted start to the year, it seems Thomas has finally hit top gear. After collecting 34 touches and 150 SC points across halfback vs St Kilda, the injury to Alan Toovey has been a blessing in disguise. Rodney Eade said on AFL 360 this week that Daisy will spend a bit of time there this season. This I like, and it’s a position similar to that of Andrew Walker’s this year. You’re not going to find better scores at that price, and you won’t get a better opportunity to trade a Neade/Dwyer to a premium than now.PATRICK DANGERFIELD (ADEL) MID – $486,300 DT/$571,000 SC – Next 5 Games: GWS (A), STK (H), NM (A), FRE (H), SYD (H)
– Recent Scores: 107, 84, 120, 89, 173
He’s frustrated coaches all season, but there may be light at the end of the tunnel for Patrick Dangerfield. 173 v Hawthorn, (which included 35 touches, 8 marks, 2 goals) was the Dangerfield we all remember from last season. But while he may have been a little off to start the season, if 84 is going to be a “down game”, I’ll cop that on the chin. At $571,000, he’s dropped $65,000 in value from start of year. Danger has been notorious for slow starts, he didn’t score his first SC ton last year ‘till round 5, and in 2011 he had 2 scores above 90 in first 8 weeks (mind you, he only averaged 80 that year). With a BE of 57, Danger may have played his way into form and must be seriously considered if you’re looking for an upgrade option.HEATH SCOTLAND (CARL) DEF – $461,300 DT/$502,500 SC – Next 5 Games: STK (A), PORT (H), BRIS (A), GWS (H), ESS (A)
– Recent Scores: 79, 83, 99, 106
I like to call Heath Scotland Mr Consistent. He’s averaged high 90s to 100+ over past 7 years, and has dropped below 80 just 4 games in 2 years. After missing first 2 games due to an off-season incident, he’s back in the side and so is his consistent scoring. Heath is the type of player who will barely drop below 80 all year, but also won’t score the massive either. You bring in to shore up your defence and bank the 90-100 points. Scotland has slowly built himself up and is back in the swing of it, playing some good footy. Many people are staying clear due to his age, but for me, age is irrelevant. If I’m looking for a bloke who will score me consistently high scores, he’s the man. A nice PoD and upgrade option from a Pittard or Stevenson. Consider.
“GET HIM OUT”JACK GRIMES (MELB) DEF – $422,400 DT/$453,700 SC – Recent Scores: 80, 83, 120, 93, 13
– Next 5 Games: In a sling.
Poor Jack. His injury-ravaged career has taken another hit, breaking his collarbone on weekend against Carlton. Out for 2 months, and must be traded. One positive is his price. At $453,700, you can turn Jack into another premium defender. Your options? I would consider looking at guys like Michael Hibberd as a PoD (spoken about above), Heath Scotland or Paul Duffield as a straight swap. If you’ve got the cash in the bank, Heath Shaw’s your man. Either way, Jack’s got to go, and it’s a real shame because he was just starting to build form.JUSTIN WESTHOFF (PORT) FWD – $465,600 DT/$535,300 SC – Recent Scores: 163, 150, 149, 53, 48
– Next 5 Games: RICH (H), CARL (A), GEE (H), WBD (A), BYE
I’m going to keep this short and sweet, dump him. Justin has been a revelation early on, but now it’s time to say goodbye. He’s yielded you the cash to straight swap (or even downgrade) to a premium and with a BE at 220, he’s only going to head south. Some may have kept him after his 53 to see if it was a one-off, but it wasn’t and now you must trade. No ifs or buts. Send him packing and get yourself a super consistent forward ie, Steve Johnson.SAM JACOBS (ADEL) RUCK – $383,100 DT/$459,200 SC – Recent Scores: 105, 106, 77, 66, 66
– Next 5 Games: GWS (A), STK (H), NM (A), FRE (H), SYD (H)
He hasn’t had the fall from grace like Justin Westhoff, but the form of Sam Jacobs over the past 2 weeks has been alarming. He was going at a ton a week for the first 3 weeks, but his last 2 have been super poor – a pair of 66s (clickety click). He’s getting plenty of hit-outs, so the problem lines around the ground. 9 touches v Hawthorn and 8 v Carlton doesn’t cut it against the likes of Cox and Leuenberger, who usually push towards 20 disposals. The fact he’s finding none of the ball alarms me, and if you have him, I’d strongly consider trading him out before he becomes “untradeable”.
After a spell last week to deal with the IRS (Injuries, Rucks, Suspensions), “Breaking Point” is back. Here is a list of all the notable BE* you must take into calculations heading into this round of trading.
* = Approximates, not bang on.
- Dale Thomas (COLL), 49
- Heath Shaw (COLL), 48
- Brent Macaffer (COLL), 11
- Nick Riewoldt (STK), 55
- Dylan Roberton (STK), 57
- Nathan Wright (STK), -15
- Josh Saunders (STK), 17
- Brodie Murdoch (STK), 28
- David Zarahakis (ESS), 62
- Majak Daw (NM), -5
- Lewis Stevenson (PORT), 35
- Kane Mitchell (PORT), -11
- Jake Neade (PORT), 36
- Sam Kerridge (ADEL), -7
- Brad Hill (HAW), -2
- Brandon Ellis (RICH), -46
- Nick Vlaustin (RICH), -15
- Jaeger O’Meara (GCS), 5
- Jonathon Griffin (FRE), 55
- Jack Hannath (FRE), -50
- Justin Clarke (BRIS), -33
- Marco Paparone (BRIS), 18
- Sam Mayes (BRIS), 15
- Kane Lucas (CARL), 29
- Andrew Walker (CARL), 63
- Matt Jones (MELB), 25
- Michael Evans (MELB), 6
- Max Gawn (MELB), -11
- Dean Terlich (MELB), 22
- Josh J Kennedy (WCE), 66
- Callum Sinclair (WCE), 1
- Koby Stevens (WBD), 12
- Jake Stringer (WBD), 12
- Dane Swan (COLL), 146
- Steele Sidebottom (COLL), 141
- Nick Dal Santo (STK), 143
- Brendon Goddard (ESS), 134
- Jobe Watson (ESS), 165
- Brent Stanton (ESS), 150
- Justin Westhoff (PORT), 220
- Rory Sloane (ADEL), 159
- Sam Jacobs (ADEL), 144
- Lance Franklin (HAW), 205
- Brett Deledio (RICH), 184
- Trent Cotchin (RICH), 145
- Joel Selwood (GEE), 165
- Michael Barlow (FRE), 126
- Josh P Kennedy (SYD), 131
- Pearce Hanley (BRIS), 161
- Matthew Priddis (WCE), 173
- Dean Cox (WCE), 130
Last, but never least, we have Pub Talk. Given the amount of questions I’ve been inundated with, sometimes I feel like I’m back to the days of the Seaford RSL with Jock having robust decisions about whether Doug Hawkins was a good trade-in option. So thank you, and here are the burning questions.
– @timbzy91: Ryan Lester a valid option to trade in this week? Negative break even and structurally allocates funds
ANSWER: I wouldn’t get sucked in by Lester. If he were $100k cheaper I would consider, but at $327,200 he is too awkwardly priced. He also hasn’t been the greatest scorer over the years, and in basically a full season last year, he failed to break the Super Coach ton. Sure, he will generate a fair bit of cash, but it’s a wasted trade for mine given the awkward price. Better off either downgrading to a rookie, or going all out for a premium. Mid-pricers can burn you. It’s a no for me.
– @imjohnb: I’ve had T Cloke since the start. He’s made 150k and has a BE of 157. Thoughts on downgrading to Thomas?
ANSWER: It’s a good idea, but I wouldn’t to be honest. Reason is that you’re better off backing Travis in, and upgrading a Dwyer/Neade to Thomas. By season’s end, you want a side close to, or full of, premiums, so when someone like Thomas drops that low in price, you should upgrade a rookie to them. Plus we’ve seen than Cloke can score big, so if I were you, HOLD Cloke and trade up a rookie to Dale.
– @DavideColombo96: Nic Nat, easy draw ahead, does this mean big scores?
ANSWER: Interesting question. His price should drop in the coming weeks due to that 34 being in his 3 week rolling average. Nic Nat does have an easy run, but that said, he’s SuperCoach gold no matter who he plays again. He has had a limited pre-season and I get the sense he was rushed back due to Eagles’ poor start. So it may take a while for him to get going. Give Nic Nat a few weeks to drop in price, and he could be a nice upgrade from Matthew Leuenberger in a few weeks time.
– @webbmark: how much is the minimum amount $ worth using a downgrade trade for $200k, $150k?
ANSWER: It depends on the player you’re downgrading from I reckon. It’s more a question of how much you should be makes off a downgrade. In the perfect world, I would like to make a good $150,000 – $200,000 off my rookies, but circumstances permit. You may be forced to trade out a Rowe or Blicavs and not generate a great deal of cash off it. Usually a rookie will peak around $250,000-$300,000, and trading down will generate A LOT of cash. I wouldn’t go past trading in a rookie at $150,000+ unless it’s urgent or there’s simply no rookies at the bubble.
– @OssieTerron: Mitch Robinson worth a look this week with a BE of 62?
ANSWER: A player I started the season with, I expected big things from Mitch Robinson. However, after that concussion-affected score of 20, he really hasn’t set the world on fire – averaging 74.7, with an average of 85.6 over past 5 weeks. He may have a low BE, but so does Dale Thomas, at a cheaper price. So for me, I would ditch the idea of getting Robinson in and get Dale Thomas. Mitch just isn’t scoring well enough to be considered.
Alright everyone, another week of Flesh for Fantasy down. All the best for the weekend ahead and make sure you send in your questions to @Mr_Crimmins.