FLESH FOR FANTASY – ROUND 6
Round 5 saw many sides make their move and step out of the trenches, with the highest ranked player in the top 20 scores for the round sitting at 25,882 (Victorious Secret). The return to form of Dayne Zorko, Steve Johnson and David Zaharakis has created some food for thought in way of premium upgrades.
However, it was the rookies, knees and suspensions that dominated the round. Poor Tex Walker will sit the next 12 months on the sidelines. Nathan Fyfe will sit the next 2 weeks out, along with Brett Goodes. Bryce Gibbs looks to have done a hammy, while key backline downgrade Sam Docherty was given the green vest v Melbourne.
There’s so much to go through in this special edition of “Flesh for Fantasy”, and will be doing things a little different. There will be no “Get Him In/Get Him Out”. Instead, focus will be on the IRS (injuries, rookies, suspensions). There’s been carnage in majority of SuperCoach sides, and we must tackle the issues head on as a community, together.
The AFL is currently in the midst of an ACL epidemic. We’ve had 14 in 5 rounds, in a league where the season average was 13. On the weekend we saw 3 more added to the dreaded list – Alan Toovey, Kepler Bradley and Tex Walker, who’s the one we’re more concerned about from a fantasy point of view.
Taylor Walker (FWD – $436,100) will spend the next 12 months on the sidelines as he recovers from a debilitating ACL injury. The question to ask yourself now is not so much what to do with him, but who to deal him to. With a few players on the bubble this week, you could do a downgrade/upgrade trade this week and turn Tex into the following players.
DAYNE ZORKO (BRIS) MID/FWD – $489,500 SC
– Next 5 Games: SYD (A), WCE (H), ESS (A), CARL (H), COLL (H)
– Recent Scores: 64, 79, 67, 105, 151
With a last 3 round average of 107.7 and a BE of approximately 36, Zorko the Magnificent is back! He’s found his groove, and rewarding those who stuck fat with the premium. He’s back up to 20+ disposals a game; tackling has increased and is now consistently pumping the ball I50. His price has dropped $45,000 since the start of the year, but should break $500,000 in the coming weeks. Consistency is everything in SuperCoach, and with a tough stretch of games coming up; it’s tough to say whether he is completely back to the 2012 Zorko. However, given his current discounted price, he is someone seriously worth considering to replace Tex.STEVE JOHNSON (GEE) MID/FWD – $527,400 SC – Next 5 Games: RICH (A), ESS (H), COLL (A), PORT (A), GCS (H)
– Recent Scores: 75, 97, 160
Another man who, after a slow start to the season, is finally up and firing. It’s been building for some time now, and in the game v Dogs he had 30 touches, 10 tackles and 6 I50s for that whopping 160 SC. Even in games v Swans and Blues his possession tally was high, so he was getting plenty of it – but now he’s tackling a lot more too, which increased from 1, to 6, to 10 respectively. Johnson is a bit more on the expensive side, but if you’ve got the cash available, Stevie J is playing into form and could be the perfect replacement for Tex.ANDREW WALKER (CARL) MID/FWD – $518,400 SC – Next 5 Games: MELB (H), STK (A), PORT (H), BRIS (A), GWS (H)
– Recent Scores: 137, 70, 137, 109, 124
One of the surprise packets of the season has to be Tex’s long lost brother Andrew. Under new coach and old friend Michael Malthouse, Andrew’s role has shifted to half back, playing as a loose man who collecting the pill in space and running all over the place with it. This has seen a rise in his numbers, averaging 24 touches and 115.4 SC points. Carlton has a good run coming up, with their next 5 against sides who missed the 8 last season and only 1 in the 8 this year (Port Adelaide). Given Andrew’s current form and teams coming up, there’s no reason to suggest Walker’s scores will slow down. If you’ve got the money, get him in.
The other major injury to come from the weekend, and one of more significance to SuperCoach, was that of Bryce Gibbs (MID – $486,700). Gibbs was subbed at HT against the Crows (much to the disgust of the community). Once news broke through that he’s done a hamstring, it raised concern and panic about the level of “carnage” our backlines are facing this week. My advice on Bryce Gibbs is simple and obvious but:
Keep Bryce. It would be the biggest waste of a trade to get rid of a player like him. Carlton have come out and said it was a “low-grade hamstring tear” and while he’ll miss this week, will be assessed next. The seriousness of the injury is low. Hold onto him and see how he things play out next week. That trade used to sideways trade Gibbs could be used for cash generation. Think long term over short.
The 2nd big issue to come from the weekend was the rookies. There are a number of players hitting the bubble this week and ready to start generating some cash. We also have to start making the call on a number of our rookies, who have done wonderful jobs in making our SuperCoach sides some hard earned cash. Old man Crimmins here is licking his lips at idea of making some money and being the old tightarse this community makes me out to be.
Here is a list of those on the bubble, ready for price rise after this week:
- Rory Laird (ADEL) DEF, $115,900
- Sam Docherty (BRIS) DEF, $115,900
- Marco Paparone (BRIS) MID/FWD, $114,500
- Sam Kerridge (ADEL) MID/FWD, $115,900
- Jackson Macrae (WBD) MID, $174,500
- Max Gawn (MELB) RUCK, $115,900
- Majak Daw (NM) RUCK, $115,900
- Tom Lee (STK) FWD, $115,900
- Jake Stringer (WBD) FWD, $179,500
All these players (except Stringer and Macrae due to their price) currently have an approximate Break Even in the negatives. But the question now you must ask yourself community: just who of these players to trade in, and who for. A few of them are obvious ones, but others aren’t so simple. Here are a few trades I’ve considered this week in way of cash generation.MARK BLICAVS (GEE) RUCK TO MAX GAWN (MELB) RUCK – Price of Blicavs: $196, 900 – Price of Gawn: $115,900
– Cash generated: $81,000
Giving the current pool of rookie rucks going around right now, this could be one of the only chances you get to downgrade Blicavs. Daniel Currie is one you could wait for, but Daw is jump ahead of him in the pecking order, and North won’t flirt with Goldstein’s form by bringing in that 2nd ruck. The fact Ben Hudson played when Jolly was ruled out instead of Witts and Grundy shows Bucks isn’t ready to throw them into deep end just yet. Jack Hannath from Fremantle is one to keep an eye on now that Kepler Bradley is out with an ACL. Max, on the other hand, has been playing as a forward and with Clark ruled out for 8 weeks, he should hold his spot in side as that 2nd key forward the Dees wanted when they chased after Dawes. Blicavs has an approximate BE of 44, and given his scoring pattern and Vardy’s pending return, I’d dump now while you have chance to get Gawn in.JASPER PITTARD (PORT) DEF TO SAM DOCHERTY (BRIS) DEF – Price of Heath: $235,700 – Price of Docherty: $115,900
– Cash generated: $119,800
With Hinkley confirming Wednesday he’ll spend another week on the sidelines, this could be a good chance to cash him in. He currently has a BE approximately of approximately 21, and after a great start to the year, his scores are dropping too. Most sides would have loaded up with Port rookies in defence ie Stevenson, Heath…and realistically you can’t go into the bye rounds with all of them. If you add Hartlett to the mix, that’s almost too many Port players. So given all this, it could be a good opportunity to start the culling with Pittard and let Stevenson/Heath grow a little more, seeing as both still have BEs in the negatives.
Docherty, on the otherhand, provides an interesting situation. After a very solid debut v North Melbourne, he was given the green vest in the last game we get to see before the price rise next week. This does worry me a little bit, and with Hanley due to return this week, I wouldn’t be surprised is Docherty is the one out. Wait ‘til team selections before you execute this one, but Docherty has shown us glimpses, back him in if he is selected.
Rory Laid (ADEL), $115,900 is another player worth considering trading Pittard down too.
– Cash generation: $132,700
The buzz rookie this year, Sam Dwyer is also one that has fallen dramatically since that game v Blues where he tore it to shreds. Since then he has managed 68, 65 and 38. His BE sits at approximately 45, and given his current run of form, there are question marks as to whether he’ll reach this score.
Paparone’s job security worries me, but his performances don’t. If you break it all down, he’s not playing 4 quarters, but when he does, he has ability to score quite well. Against NM his quarter breakdown was 0/21/15/28 and against Melbourne it was 0/24/2/10. He’s got a good knack for the goals, but is a prime target for the green vest. If you’re going to trade him in, make sure you got someone else to cover Dwyer on the field – Paparone is more suited to sitting on your bench and generating cash.
If you’re worried about job security of Paparone, Jake Stringer (WBD), $179,500 is someone you could consider for Dwyer. Won’t generate as much cash initially from trade, but will play every week and in the long run should go up in value.
Finally, this weekend saw the suspension of 2 influential fantasy players in Brett Goodes and Nat Fyfe. Both received 2 weeks and no doubt it must be tempting for trade them out, especially those in the top 1000 cashing the prize. Both provide unique situations in their own right, so let’s break it down.
Nathan Fyfe (FRE) MID, $544,900 got 2 weeks his deliberate kick after his appeal failed. A popular pick in the pre-season, he must remain in your side for the 2 weeks, it’s that simple. You should have cover on the bench to take Fyfe’s spot while sits in the stands, and you won’t regret trading him out when he comes back and resumes his 100+ scores.
Brett Goodes (WBD) DEF, $331,300 also got 2 weeks for a raised elbow on Cat Josh Caddy. Unlike Teen Wolf, he wasn’t foolish enough to appeal and accepted with the early guilt plea. Don’t let this scare you off him though. Bench him, and then put him back on field when he returns. His BE is still in the negatives and scoring well himself too. His ceiling will peak at about $350,000+ as estimation and you really want to get every dollar you can. Also, guys like Pittard, Stevenson and Heath are getting very close to their ceilings, so the trades are better spent in the next couple of weeks downgrading them. HOLD.
@23moosey23: I traded in both kerridge and Docherty last week. Too early? Or given options dwindling and extra trades ok?
ANSWER: If it’s going to generate cash for upgrades, it’s never too early. Of course, the players you’re trading out may still have room to grow and value. So in that aspect, you may gave gone early, but also getting another week to look at these rookies also helps. But don’t beat yourself up because cash generation is everything and you would have done so by downgrading to a Kerridge and Docherty.
@JD_Dennis_: Worth getting Goodes out now, maybe even Wines?
ANSWER: As mentioned above, I’d suggest you hold onto Goodes and use the trades to clear out rookies closer to the ceiling than him. Wines, however, is an interesting situation. He has a BE of approximately 38, and has risen t0 $354,000. With all that, I would still hold onto him. He’s scoring well enough to cover that BE and could still go up towards the $400,000. Start treating him week by week though because in a few weeks time, he will be cherry ripe to trade out.
@LavanJRuban: Between Campbell Heath and Cameron O’Shea, which is the best downgrade option now?
ANSWER: I believe Heath is to be honest. Looked sore and struggled to play 4 quarters the other night, whereas O’Shea killed it. That said, both still have achievable BEs and will go up in value. Pittard won’t return this week so both should play, but for me, I’d go Heath – more upside and value potential in O’Shea.
@Linca_HotTiges: Is Winderlich worth getting in for Dwyer?
ANSWER: To be honest, no I don’t because of Winderlich’s price. At $246,100, you’d be making just $1,100 from the trade and for me; I believe there are options you can trade Dwyer down too that will generate $100,000+. On top of that, he’s also a prime candidate for the vest from time to time as well. Not worth risk, consider other options with Winderlich.
@WayneEllery: who’s the next best forward rookie for cash generation? Kerridge or spend extra for o’hAilpin?
ANSWER: Good question, there are a number out there worth considering. Wouldn’t spend extra for o’hAilpin, given GWS won’t get the spread of scores like other sides will. Kerridge’s JS (job security) worries me, seems to be playing as a tagger so his scores will also be affected. But, like most rookies, as long as he plays, his value will go up. Jake Stringer is another one too I would consider. Bit more on the expensive side, but is a beast of a man and the Dogs will keep pumping games into him as McCartney continues to rebuild that list. There’s also Marco Paparone, who was discussed above as an option. If he plays, he should score passable scores and generate some value. I worry about the vest and JS with him, so play that one by ear. Finally, there’s Tom Lee from St Kilda who I’m not sold on all that much. He’ll be in and out of the side and even Scott Watters believes he’s not all that ready for AFL just yet (which is silly for a mature-age rookie).
Well, that’s it for this week’s edition of Flesh for Fantasy. All the best for the upcoming round, we’re all in this together. Remember to hit me with any fantasy related questions at @Mr_Crimmins.