FLESH FOR FANTASY – ROUND 5
Hope you all had a fantastic weekend of fantasy last week. It was the round that rewarded those who “stuck fat” with their premiums. Dangerfield scored a nice 120, Zorko tonned up for the first time this season and Justin Westhoff just keeps on scoring – 149 v Gold Coast during the week.
This week, due to football on ANZAC Day, we need to be on our game early in regards to trades we’ll make and which rookies we’ll play, because the Coll/Ess and StK/Syd players will be locked away come Thursday night – and you could miss out on chance to downgrade a Macaffer to Mayes for example.
It’s also important in the coming weeks that us fantasy fanatics keep an eye on the BEs of rookies. Many are about to hit their ceiling, and you don’t want to be losing money off your rookies. As the classics say, “know when to hold them, know when to fold them”. This will be discussed in more detail over the coming weeks.
Anyway, here is this week’s edition of “Flesh for Fantasy”.
“GET HIM IN”
DANE SWAN (COLL) MID – $642,700 DT/$635,200 SC– Next 5 Games: ESS (A), STK (H), FRE (A), GEE (H), SYD (H) – Recent Scores: 136, 103, 91, 168
If you looking to upgrade a failing premium or have the cash to splash, Dane Swan is your man. The tattooed superstar loves to feast on Essendon, with scores of 175, 180, 176, 106 and 142 in his last 5 against them. Dane is in typical Swanny form right now, and really, he’s the type of player that will still score 100+ even on an off day. Many have ignored Dane to go with Ablett instead, so bringing him in would be a nice PoD, and having both him and Gaz in your midfield will set you put for a massive score. So, while Dane may be a touch on the expensive side, if you can afford to get him in, it’ll be a trade that’ll see both your scores and average go up.
HAMISH HARTLETT (PORT) DEF/MID – $423,500 DT/$489,600 SC– Next 5 Games: WCE (H), NM (A), RICH (H), CARL (A), GEE (H) – Recent Scores: 123, 38, 118, 144
Hamish gets a mention for the 2nd time this season, and for good reason. Despite that off 38, Hartlett has been sensational this season – finally living up to that potential which saw him go number 4. But that’s not the reason I’m mentioning him in this weeks’ edition. The reason I do so is because of his crazy low BE. Hamish must score approximately 31 in order to receive a price rise, and given his current form, he’ll absolutely smash it. This, therefore, will lead to a price above $500k and I believe it could be a while before he ducks before that. So, what Crimmins is trying to say here is that if you’re considering upgrading a poor performing defender ie Paul Duffield, Hartlett could be the man at his discounted price. You could also get him in the midfield and use his DPP with the likes of Goddard and Gibbs. If you’re a tightarse like myself, Hartlett is a must get this week before he goes up in price.
GRANT BIRCHALL (HAW) DEF – $518,400 DT/$563,400 SC– Next 5 Games: NM (H), ADEL (A), SYD (H), GWS (H), GCS (H)
– Recent Scores: 122, 126, 110, 152
Crimmins here wil admit Grant Birchall was in my team all pre-season, until poor Matthew Suckling tore his ACL in a NAB Cup hit-out v Richmond. With Brian Lake out too, I was under impression Grant Birchall would have to play more a lock-down role. Boy was this old fart wrong. Grant has been anything but, rebounding off halfback beautifully, and becoming a weapon for this formidable Hawthorn side. This season has seen career-high disposals in a game, career-high kicks in game, career-high goals in a game and career-high tackles in a game. Grant’s elevated himself to another level, and this has been against the competition’s best sides. He’s BE sits at 76, and given his current form, I expect his price to go up even more. Finally, Hawthorn’s draw opens up beautifully, and with games against GWS and GCS, the high scoring is set to continue. If you need to upgrade a defender, Grant’s your man.
MATTHEW STOKES (GEE) FWD – $403,000 DT/$420,800 SC– Next 5 Games: WBD (A), RICH (A), ESS (H), COLL (A), PORT (A)
– Recent Scores: 93, 78, 125, 103
Matthew Stokes has been a revelation early this season. He has been a beneficiary of Geelong’s successful start to the season, with an average of 26 disposals and 6 marks. He even made an impact as the sub, scoring 78 SC points in what many have labelled as the greatest sub game of all time. Let’s not forget the other 3 games he’s played – collecting 29, 30 and 31 disposals respectively. Selecting Matthew would be a gamble, because I believe he falls into the category of Justin Westhoff – just waiting for it to all fall apart. But, if he keeps playing the way he has in the new role that Chris Scott seems to have given him, there is no reason for Matthew to drop in form. He could be a nice PoD trade-in option if you’re looking at dumping a Taylor Walker or any other failing premium forward.
“GET HIM OUT”
BRENT MACAFFER (GEE) FWD/MID – $165,700 DT/$175,200 SC– Next 5 Games: ESS (A), STK (H), FRE (H), GEE (H), SYD (H) – Recent Scores: 44, 60 58
The Macaffer experiment is over. The dream of having him as a mid-priced forward scoring mid 70s and generating cash came to nothing. He’s now out of favour and not generating any money. The fact he was a late inclusion for Goldsack says it all – will only get a game if someone comes out of side. So, what do you do with him? Sam Mayes is one option. You won’t make much money off that trade, but you are bringing in someone who will. Tom Lee is also another player worth considering, and you’ll get another look at him before his price goes up. Any way you go, Brent must be ousted.
SHANNON HURN (WCE) DEF – $338,700 DT/$444,000 SC– Next 5 Games: PORT (A), WBD (H), BRIS (A), NM (H), GWS (A) – Recent Scores: 99, 67, 73, 86
In a game of numbers, the ever-reliable Shannon Hurn has had a down 2013. He’s dropped $44,000 in value, his disposal count is down (including kicks) and he isn’t taking the number of marks he used to in years gone past. Most concerning about all this is he’s currently tracking career high in time spent on ground %. At Shannon’s price, you would be expecting more – considering many of the other defender premiums you bypassed to select him. I believe this is the week you trade him out for another premium defender before guys like Harlett go up and you’re stuck having to blow many trades just to get him out.
KANE MITCHELL (PORT) MID – $123,900 DT/$121,000 SC– Next 5 Games: In the SANFL – Recent Scores: 13, 15, 35
No-one teased in the off-season like Kane Mitchell. The 2012 Sandover Medallist was meant to be that mature rookie that would burst onto the scene and make us some serious money. We were all waiting and waiting for that elevation off the rookie list, and when it occurred – many rejoiced. Fast forward 5 rounds, he’s played 3 games (all 3 as sub), he dropped in value and is now back on the rookie list. I don’t think we’ll be seeing him anytime soon, and if you haven’t traded him out yet – do so this week. Given his price, Michael Evans might be a nice option. He should almost bypass Mitchell’s price this week, while also making a handy $20,000.
JACK VINEY (MELB) MID – $182,800 DT/$193,400 SC– Next 5 Games: BRIS (A), CARL (H), GCS (H), RICH (A), FRE (A) – Recent Scores: 117, 49, 17, 9
You’re probably wondering why Jack Viney is in the “Get Him Out” category, and I’ll tell you why in 2 words: BREAK EVEN. That numerical value which determines how much you will be worth this round sitting dangerously high for Jack. Approximately 33 is the magical number and now decision has to be made – do you keep 1 more week and back him in to get the 33, or do you cut your losses and go down to a Mayes/Evans. I’m not telling you as such to get rid of Jack this week, but more start thinking about what you do with him – because whether it be this week or next week, not sure Jack has many price rises left in him.
– Brad Crouch (ADEL), -24 BE
– Sam Mayes (BRIS), -51 BE
– Kane Lucas (CARL), 27 BE
– Travis Cloke (COLL), -18 BE
– Sam Dwyer (COLL), 6 BE
– Mark Blicavs (GEE), 9 BE
– Jaeger O’Meara (GCS), 11 BE
– Lachie Whitfield (GWS), 33 BE
– Grant Birchall (HAW), 76 BE
– Shannon Byrnes (MELB), -22 BE
– Michael Evans (MELB), -94 BE
– Matt Jones (MELB), -34 BE
– Dean Terlich (MELB), -28 BE
– Jack Viney (MELB), 36
– Hamish Harlett (PORT), 31 BE
– Campbell Heath (PORT), 4 BE
– Angus Monfries (PORT), 60 BE
– Jake Neade (PORT), -1 BE
– Jasper Pittard (PORT), 21 BE
– Lewis Stevenson (PORT), 17 BE
– Ollie Wines (PORT), -29 BE
– Dylan Roberton (STK), 10 BE
– Nathan Wright (STK), -16 BE
– Daniel Hannebery (SYD), 62 BE
– Mark LeCras (WCE), 34 BE
– Josh J Kennedy (WCE), 42 BE
– Callum Sinclair (WCE), -39 BE
– Brett Goodes (WBD), -16 BE
– Koby Stevens (WBD), -3 BE
– Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL), 136 BE
– Heath Scotland (CARL), 159 BE
– Scott Pendlebury (COLL), 161 BE
– Heath Shaw (COLL), 169 BE
– Dale Thomas (COLL), 226 BE
– Jobe Watson (ESS), 173 BE
– Paul Duffield (FRE), 116 BE
– Jimmy Bartel (GEE), 153 BE
– Paul Chapman (GEE), 141 BE
– Steve Johnson (GEE), 138 BE
– Gary Ablett (GCS), 165 BE
– Sam Mitchell (HAW), 173 BE
– Andrew Swallow (NM), 149 BE
– Ivan Maric (RICH), 130 BE
– Kieren Jack (SYD), 146 BE
– Josh P Kennedy (SYD), 156 BE
– Ryan O’Keefe (SYD), 136 BE
I’ve become a bit of a broken record, but it does warm my old heart when I see the questions fly in from punters like you every week. So again, thank you, and here are the burning questions for this week.
@webbmark: the question of the week. Evans or Mayes?
ANSWER: Great question this one, because I too find myself in a similar position. Both have their pros and cons. I like the job security of Mayes – reckon he’ll be a regular fixture for the rest of the season. However, Evans is considerably cheaper and has a lower BE. That said, I worry about Evans job security, and he won’t be playing GWS every week so this round may have been a freak score. However, all that said, I would got Evans ONLY if you’ve got another MID rookie on your bench playing week in/week out – otherwise you could find yourself stuck if you get a late out.
@NunoDP: want to upgrade one of the port rookies to Hartlett. Who should I let go Pittard or Stevenson.
ANSWER: Great to see you’re jumping on the discounted Hamish. For me, I’d go Stevenson. BEs between the 2 are almost similar and Pittard has the ability to score quiet high in SuperCoach. While cash generation is important, you also want to score well and climb up the rankings. But yeah, Pittard for mine.
@galenmunari: thinking about trading out Viney and in a donut who is a DPP for loophole purposes. Thoughts? J Prudden for Dogs DEF/MID $109. Dogs play most Sunday night games of anyone, and around 75% twilight.
ANSWER: Love it. This is the thinking of a coach who will be there abouts at the business end. It’s a smart trade, because while many have been using Macaffer over last few weeks, they were burnt last week when he was a late in. By having the guaranteed donut, you can not only do the loophole, but also use his swing to advantage during the bye rounds. Make sure though you have another MID rookie who will play every week. Last think you want is a late out and be stuck with no replacements on the bench. But overall, it’s smart and will generate cash too.
@Barxy82: is it worth trading K Stevens for Wines? What to do with Hanley this week pittard and terlich on the pine…
ANSWER: Firstly, I believe you’ve missed the boat on Wines sadly. If you’re going to trade Stevens, trade down. Look at either Evans or Mayes as possible targets. Cash generation is important so you can turn a Stevens into a premium down the track. Secondly, hold Hanley and play Pittard. He’s shown he has ability to score well into 90s, and while it’s not a straight score swap for Hanley, at least you’re only losing out 30 points instead of 60. SuperCoach is all about decisions that will maximize score and salary.
So there you go community, some food for thought before the early beginning of round 5. All the best, and remember, any questions you have, simply tweet @Mr_Crimmins or any of the JR community. We’re all in this together.