FLESH FOR FANTASY – ROUND 3
Hope you all had a good fantasy weekend. Round 2 gave us a good chance to have a look at how and if players were able to back up their round 1 performances. We also saw the return of probably the most important fantasy ruckman this year in Matthew Leuenberger. He looked very solid and scored 101.
However, now that we’re 2 weeks into the competition, we are at the mercy of the footy gods. The first lot of price changes occur at the end of this round, and no longer is it as simple as holding an underperforming player until he hits his straps. Our trading must have substance and logic to it.
This week’s “Flesh for Fantasy” will discuss this very issue. How you trade in the next couple of weeks can either set your season up for success, or failure. It’ll be the difference between a performing team with a wealthy war chest, or a flop with no money available to upgrade.
“GET HIM IN”
MATTHEW KREUZER (CARL) RUCK – $403,700 DT/$494,100 SC
– Next 5 Games: GEE (A), WCE (A), ADEL (H), MELB (H), STK (A)
– Recent Scores: 113, 109
After burning many coaches last year, “Special K”, as his supporters dub him, has come out and turned it on this season. Tonned up in both games, but more importantly, has looked really good. He is moving well for a big man, and almost looks plays as a tall midfielder. He’s way too good to be playing out of the goal-square, and clearly is Carlton’s number 1 ruckman. Expecting him to almost hit elite status for ruckman, and should be considered if you’ve got an under-performing R1.
PEARCE HANLEY (BRIS) DEF – $425,300 DT/$485,200 SC
– Next 5 Games: GC (A), NM (A), MELB (H), SYD (A), WCE (H)
– Recent Scores: 83, 160
This chap has the “Matthew Pavlich Syndrome”. Because he isn’t playing in Melbourne, he doesn’t get rated as highly as he should. Pearce is a dead set gun. He was sensational against Adelaide – collecting 30 touches, 6 marks, 5 tackles and 160 SuperCoach points. He’s been there about for a while now, and it looks as if Hanley is ready to explode this year. While I still think you should back your defensive premiums in, there would be no harm done by getting Pearce in. He’s owned by just 7% of the SuperCoach community, so he could become a nice POD (point of difference) should you get him in.
TOM LIBERATORE (WBD) MID – $401,300 DT/$444,400 SC
– Next 5 Games: RICH (A), ADEL (A), GEE (H), WCE (A), NM (H)
– Recent Scores: 130, 133
I mentioned this son of a gun in one of my pre-season articles as a potential POD player. I thought his output would increase, but not at this rate. 2 consecutive 130+ games in crazy scoring. Libba jr also leads the competition for clearances too with 23. I think Tom has a Matthew Boyd’s injury to thank for this start to season, but he couldn’t do it without putting in the effort so it’s clear Tom is finally showing the potential we all know he has. Libba has a tough run coming up, and Boyd is due to return in next couple of weeks. But, don’t let that scare you. Be confident in trading him in, Libba is a gun and there are many more high scores to come.
JIMMY BARTEL (GEE) FWD/MID – $492,700 DT/$527,400 SC
– Next 5 Games: CARL (H), SYD (A), WBD (A), RICH (A), ESS (A)
– Recent Scores: 88, 157
It’s been a handy start to the season for Jimmy Bartel, and it’s the manner in which he’s done it that has been most interesting. Of the 245 points he has scored, 133 of those have come from the 4th quarter. Especially in the game of SuperCoach, it’s clear Jimmy’s influence on games has been massive. Geelong has an indifferent run coming up, but isn’t playing the competition elite. Jimmy’s impressive start could continue, and is a nice sideways trade for anyone who has a struggled mid/fwd premium.
“GET HIM OUT”
MITCH ROBINSON (CARL) MID/FWD – $478,600 DT/$474,700 SC
– Next 5 Games: GEE (A), WCE (A), ADEL (H), MELB (H), STK (A)
– Recent Scores: 20, 75
It’s been a disappointing start to the season for Mitch. A concussion against the Tigers, and a so-so effort against Collingwood have seen Mitch on the chopping block with many coaches, and with good reason too. Just doesn’t seem to be having the impact he was early last season. Mitch’s role has changed now that Betts is out – seems to be playing predominately as a defensive forward. While he is still apart of the midfield rotation, he’ll spend less time there at least until Betts is back. Given the amount of money he will lose in the coming weeks, I’d get off Mitch this week.
HARLEY BENNELL (GCS) MID – $438,200 DT/$521,900 SC
– Next 5 Games: BRIS (H), PORT (H), GWS (A), FRE (H), MELB (A)
– Recent Scores: 73, 53
I was excited by the prospects of Bennell throughout the pre-season. He looked very good, and I was under assumption he’d thrive having Gaz dishing the ball to his outside run. I was wrong. Very wrong. Opposition coaches have also seen this and are tagging him out of the game. 18 touches v St Kilda and 14 v Sydney just isn’t the standard we’re looking for given his price. He does have an easy draw coming up, granted. However, there’s a BE of 179 looming above his head, and he looks no-where near getting that. I believe it’s best to dump him for a Fyfe-type player before he rockets down in price and you’re unable to turn him into anyone significant.
PATRICK KARNEZIS (BRIS) FWD – $238,500 DT/$262,200 SC
– Next 5 Games: GC (A), NM (A), MELB (H), SYD (A), WCE (H)
– Recent Scores: 60, 8
What a disappointment this man has been. On the back of a very solid finish to last season, and a fantastic pre-season, I thought he was ready for the big time. Vossy had him running through the midfield and almost hogging the footy. Fast forward from the NAB Cup GF, and he’s coming off a game as the sub. Even in the full game he played round 1, he collected 19 touches, yet only managed 60 SuperCoach points. Clearly Voss believes he can’t impact full games, so he’s now running as sub. Big worry, and despite Beams’ season-ending knee injury, I’d still get Karnezis out. Karnezis to Dwyer, or to Kennedy are probably the best options for mine.
ANY PLAYER FROM THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB
– Next 5 Games: WCE (H), GWS (H), BRIS (A), CARL (A), GC (H)
Arguably the biggest story of the season to date has been the deplorable performance of the Dees. Smashed by 79 and 148 points in their first 2 games, they boast a percentage of just 28.39. So why is the disappointing performance of the team relevant for fantasy football? I’ll tell you why. SuperCoash uses Champion Data rankings as their preferred scoring system, which applies a cap of 3300. They do this so that they are able to compare individual performances throughout history. In the case of Melbourne, anyone who plays them this season, based on what we’ve seen so far, will hog a fair percentage of this 3300. On Saturday night, Essendon had 2,011 of the possible 3300. This means that the Dees had just 1,289 points to spread amongst 22 players. If you look at Saturday night, Melbourne had 2 players score above 100 (Howe 116 and Frawley 117). After that, there were 3 scores above 70. That’s not good, and with West Coast to come this week, I expect similar fantasy pain for the Dees. Get any Melbourne player you have out of side. Simple.
For the first time this season, welcome to “Breaking Point”. This will provide you with the necessary break evens you need to consider going into this week of trading. Break evens are probably one of, if not, the most important number you’ll come across this season. Being aware of when a player is ready to pop is vital in all trade decision-making. Without further ado, I present the first lot at “breaking point” for season 2013.
– Sam Dwyer (COLL), -103 BE
– Jack Viney (MELB), – 102 BE
– Josh J Kennedy (WCE), -37 BE
– Campbell Heath (PORT), -87 BE
– Lewis Stevenson (PORT), – 91 BE
– Brett Goodes (WBD), -136 BE
– Jaeger O’Maera (COLL), -124 BE
– Jake Neade (PORT), -75 BE
– Brent Macaffer (COLL), – 29 BE
– Bryce Gibbs (CARL), 62 BE
– Tom Liberatore (WBD), -4 BE
– Brent Moloney (BRIS), 17 BE
– Michael Barlow (FRE), 56 BE
– Jimmy Bartel (GEE), 63 BE
– Nathan Fyfe (FRE), 68 BE
– Matthew Pavlich (FRE), 191 BE
– Patrick Ryder (ESS), 187 BE
– Lance Franklin (HAW), 183 BE
– Dayne Zorko (BRIS), 169 BE
– Mitch Robinson (CARL, 182 BE
– Jarryd Roughead (HAW), 177 BE
– Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL), 201 BE
– Harley Bennell (GCS), 179 BE
– Luke Shuey (WCE), 165 BE
– Daniel Rich (BRIS), 146 BE
– Patrick Karnezis (BRIS), 85 BE
– Jack Watts (MELB), 168 BE
Finally, I give you this week’s edition of Pub Talk. Again, I want to thank the many questions I’ve received throughout the week. Here is the top bunch for the week heading into round 3.
– @tommywarhust: I need a replacement for rich either a downgrade or sideways trade. has shown he can’t break a tag, please help!
ANSWER: Well Tommy, you’ve come to the right place for help. I rated Rich very highly throughout the pre-season, and so did 17 other teams apparently because he is now on the receiving end of tagging jobs. Lower towelled him up something shocking in round 1, and against the Crows he managed just the 77. So you need to trade him out. Who for? Brent Moloney is a great option. Won’t average huge scores, but will be consistent. Another possible option is Tom Liberatore, who has been massive so far this year –leading competition for clearances. Be wary with him, Matthew Boyd’s pending return may see a drop in these numbers.
– @carldikschei: Trade Rough, Ryder or Karnezis? Only trade Karnezis if he’s sub? Got 250k in the bank with 1 trade to go. ??
ANSWER: For me Karnezis goes if named sub. I was one that was seriously sucked in by his pre-season and that awful “P” word – potential. He’s given us nothing so far, and clearly Vossy no longer rates him as a 21 player too. His BE is 85, and if he is named sub, there will be a huge drop in price to point it’ll be hard to make money from him. If you can possibly downgrade Karenzis to say a Dwyer, do it because you’ll build up that warchest even more.
– @mattyboyyyy69: keep zorko? Trade him for a rookie, mid-pricer or another premium?
ANSWER: Interesting question. Zorko has been down on his output, after a stellar year last season. He is a premium, and for mine, you got to back them in to come good. Not sure the 2nd year blues apply to mature-aged recruits, and this kid is a star. Back him in for a few more weeks, Brisbane’s run gets easier with GCS and Melbourne to play in the next 3 weeks. If he doesn’t pick up by then, get him out.
– @Khaphonso: What do we do with Orange Roughy Mr Crimmins??
ANSWER: What we do with “Orange Roughy” young Khaphonso, is we hold onto him. SuperCoach Gold are predicting a drop of about $42k, but he showed some good signs on the weekend – 16 touches, 4 marks, 2 goals, 89 SC. It would be rough (pun alert) to ditch him on the back of an 89. His price is such that you’re able to take a few price hits, and still turn him into a solid scoring premium. Keep for a few more weeks, and if Sunday was a flash in the pan, then consider your options.
– @jbarresi1: do we have enough time to invest in Dwyer?
ANSWER: Great question this one, because there’s more it than just a simple yes. Based on a solid run as sub v NM and a near BOG v Carlton, you’d suggest his spot is as safe as a church. However, it doesn’t seem that easy. Firstly, Buckley was quoted this week as saying that Sam Dwyer could “undeservingly” end up back on rookie list when Tim Broomhead recovers from a case of Glandular Fever. This case occurred a few years ago when Joe Misti’s return to Essendon saw Damien Peverill return to rookie list after a Dwyer-like impact. That said, Broomhead is still a bit off so Dwyer is safe on primary list…for now. Another issue is the pending return of few Collingwood stars. Ball, Beams, Fasolo, Krakouer, Young, Thomas and Didak are all due to make their way back into side at some point. Players will have to make way, and this raises serious question marks on the job security of Sam Dwyer. However, the spots of Seedsman, Macaffer, and Clarke are shakier than Sam’s at the moment, so unless all 7 come back at the one time, he should be safe for a while. In all, right now it’s a case of “if”, not “when”. Sam will generate a lot of cash and scores over next month or so. But keen an eye on the situation, because a time will arise when he’s ready to be cashed in – even if it’s prematurely.
Good luck for round 3 community, and I hope you all benefit from the upcoming price changes.