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TEAM RANK MATHEMATICS

Published by Higgo on

What is your rank after Round 1? Have you considered trading to elevate this rank? I have … and I have some mathematics here to explain why.

Firstly, one needs to consider the very large population that is Supercoach teams. 284,705 teams are entered this year …. down on last year; a result of the new draft style game I suspect ….. Anyway, given this large population, current team ranks will follow a distribution pattern known as The Normal Distribution(common name = Bell Curve). More on this later.

Below I have graphed the top 1500 ranked teams;

Very interesting indeed!

As you can see, the lower the scores get, the more crowded it becomes …. and this is only the top 0.5%. This graph above forms the extreme left tip of the Normal Distribution Curve as shown below;

Without going too deep into standard deviations, it is important to note that the closer your ranking is to the mean(middle of “the bell”), the more likely it is that you are sitting on a rank with hundreds of others …. all on the same score. A few points here will result in a vast difference in rank!

My team, Mathemagic FC, is currently ranked 5148th and I would expect that there would be at least 100 others with this same rank!Β With 30 trades this year I am prepared to trade early to leave my fellow rankers behind.

Yes, it’s a long season you might say. Yes, these trades may be more valuable in the run home …. BUT, last year I managed with 24 just fine, and remember, during the bye rounds you only need 18 scores!

As my good, yet occasionally crass friend Crouching would say, “I am trading my ass off!”

Are you?

Kind regards,

Peter Higginbotham

 

 

 

Categories: Game Strategy

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AWESOMENESS

Hi Higgo
My only trade for round 2 will be getting LeCrae out of my team due to injury.
I was also thinking of getting rid of Goddard or Newman for a better defender like Birchall, D. Pearce or J. Grimes but I was thinking that I should wait till after Round 2 to see how they go and how Goddard and Newman go.

Thoughts

@PeterHiggo

Getting rid of Goddard or Newman = Crazy!
Focus on what you do with LeCras … Generate cash or trade for like with upside.

Drew

getting rid of goddard for a better defender, are you kidding??

G-man

Getting rid of Goddard lol. I just busted out Ryder and Rich for Luey and Gaz. BAM and the dirt is gone!

@Popey_99

I will be trading my ass off for sure. 3-4 trades over the first 2 weeks for me!

james

Agreed with the extra trades I will be trading my ass off !!

@maxwills13

Great work Higgo!
With this team any trading you would recommend?

Goddard Gibbs Hartlett Brown Goodes Pittard. Stevenson Terlich.
Ablett Pendles Kennedy Danger Murphy Wines O'meara Viney. K.Mitchell Crouch.
Cox Jacobs. Blicavs Currie.
Zorko Bartel Rockliff Karnezis Varcoe Macaffer. Neade Rowe.
$69,700
Scored 2390 first round ranked 2,245

@maxwills13

Could Dangerfield to Watson be a good move? Or would you get Barlow to generate some cash…?

@PeterHiggo

Can't comment as your team is settled as is … However …. Have you considered Murphy to Barlow?? Cash could then turn Varcoe into something better? BUT this is hairy! Have a good think … Look at projections, go for a walk … Before you even consider,

An name

Barlow will be a gun

THESALTSHAKERS

Almost identical to my team dude – rank 4402

SCaddict

There's nothing obvious that needs to be fixed in your team so I would probably hold off trading til next week. You won't appreciate saving these trades til late in the season when extra trades will feel like a godsend.

froggy

Had Watts in my forward line and Neade in mid.

Now subbing Neade into the forwas line and trading Watts for Wines.
Also upgrading Dangermouse to Ablett withthe extra cash

Murph

I'll be using my early trades to reverse my crazy Round 1 decisions.
I'm trading Dusty Martin down to Cloke, and that will give me a bit more cash to allow me to trade Lycett up to Josh J Kennedy #welcome

froggy

Are you sure you want to go Cloke? Can be hot and cold. Too inconsistant for me

Bobby

Agree

Swans2012

I’m with you higgo, if you have even a faint sniff of overall you should be trading your ass off to get an advantage, if your after a league win its not so important yet. Me I’m going Jenkins – luenberger if named and then either Le cras to monfries or walker ( which means fielding blicavs) or le cras to goldy ( which means fielding mcaffer). Advice welcomed! Currently ranked 630 odd and leaning towards the monfries option as I trust blicavs more than mcaffer (I think) and would leave 100k plus in bank.
Want these two trades out of the way this week as I feel a couple of sideways trades might be worthwhile next week to take advantage pre price changes! (Maybe franklin down to whoever puts there hand up and even a Duffield to Hartlet)

Swans2012

Meant to also say I think you should ALWAYS consider trading out whoever is going to lose the most cash each week in your team for whatever option is going to gain the most that same week, thus you keep your team value spiralling in the right direction, not losing cash early on is just as important as having the right rooks to make cash in my opinion!

steve

im thinking of 2 weeks of trading to generate some cash and they are petrie out for ace cordy and longer out for griffin that should fix up my ruck with cox r1. Then next trade is dangerfield out for viney and rich out for j.lewis that should free up $580k . What do you think higgo.

Stan

Bit early for danger mouse trade I reckon ESP if your only after freeing up cash

Jock

Hey Higgo I dont always understand your mathematics business but I think I'm picking up what you're slapping down mate. So you're opening up the trade wallet now mate? Very interesting. Just considering the LeCras situation right now

elM

have you posted your team on the site yet yet, Higgo?

EPR

Or at least give us your team name so we can have dekko at it!

Dinolyn

He did in this article… Mathemagic FC πŸ™‚

Matt

Lecras for Arryn Siposs= Awesome Trade

Nick

Fellas, I need help with the lecras situation! I’m thinking of trading lecras for either:

A) monfries

B) siposs

C) rookie

Help

@maxwills13

Depends which rookies you have at the moment…

john d

M Robinson to Dwyer or Rowe then upgrade Hannebery to Ablett? Good trade or not?

dan

ok providing your not relying on dwyer on field, hes handy on the bench beams back this week

Stan

Don't think Dwer will get much game time thou the season????

Jake

G’day guys.

Love the work higgo

Who do you think is the better premium option?

Watson or Kennedy?

@PeterHiggo

Watson … But very close.

Knave

Watsons average is around 143 Kennedy is lower and he versed GWS and Gold Coast think about it

@MRB37

It is definitely something to consider Higgo, and making early trades is something that could get you over the curve and into a better scoring position in the long run. I'm not a fan of these early sideways trades, but would encourage rookie mistakes are fixed as early as possible. Also as Higgo pointed out, only needing 18 players in the bye rounds will probably remove some trades. I remember last year I used about 7 or 8 trades during that 3 round period specifically on sideways trades to get guys who were playing that round (I was going for overall scores). I still managed to go into finals with 4 trades left, now we've got an extra 6 I reckon a few early trades will be OK.

That trade button is taunting me at the moment though and I have a huge urge to trade LeCras and upgrade another player so I can hopefully get another good score this week, rather than waiting another week.

dools

WoHhhh Brother e-mail you r team or your score… Stay away from the button 30 trades is great but you need them for later not after 1st bloody round looking fwd to hearing from you mate. You picked the team because you had faith in them what earth shattering thing happened? Keep the faith
Your pal in SC
Dools

@MRB37

Hey Dools,

Scored 2396 last week, that's with JPK as my C over Ablett and Viney on the bench. Only trading because of LeCras getting injured. When he originally broke his arm. I downgraded Bennell to Maloney to free up extra $ so I could swap out LeCras for Stevie J. Now that he's injured too i've got $120K sitting on the sidelines not doing much. So I've basically got 4 options available to me

No trades – Keep LeCras benched as I have cover for the moment
1 trade/no extra $ spent = LeCras to a similar priced player such as Kennedy, Monfries or Siposs
1 trade/extra money spent = LeCras to Robinson, Martin or Wright
2 trades/extra money spent = LeCras to Kennedy and Jacobs to Hartlett

If I don't use the extra $ now, it'll most likely sit in the bank until I generate enough free cash from a rookie, which means it could be another 6-7 weeks until that happens. So I think why not use the 120K now to really improve my team. From the looks of what Martin, Robinson and Wright are scoring, it doesn't look like they'll score much higher, I'd guess 10-15+ points a game than Kennedy (80-85 average for Kennedy vs 95-100 average for the other 3), meaning I'm not getting a huge bang for my buck out of my spare cash for upgrading my FWD to one of those players. However, Jacobs to Hartlett is looking like it could yield an improvement of 25-40+ points a game to my side (70-75 for Jacobs vs 100-110 for Hartlett), meaning it's now my best use of my spare cash. It'll use another trade yes, but it will also significantly (if everything goes to plan) boost my scores over using just 1 trade, not just in the short term, but in the long term also as Hartlett is looking like a year long keeper if he doesn't get injured. Basically I'm using Mad Mick's line of thinking here, in that for me in ticks off the two boxes he mentioned in his previous column, which were "Will this trade make my team earn more points?" and "Is this the best trade I can make for my team to earn the most points possible?"

brad

should I keep Daniel rich?

dools

In a word YES well that was 4 but Yes Yes Yes now it's thirteen

Josh

I put Jack Gunston in my team, as I thought he represented value given he was a sub 5 times in 2012.

He looks rubbish compared to last year though, and I think I will dispose of him for Josh Kennedy (Eagles).

Gary

Thinking about dropping D.Rich and moving Gibbs to my MID from DEF then adding Suban and spare cash, to flick Watts next week if he doesn't deliver this round.
Thoughts???

crunch

hey jocko love your work chiefo
was just wondering what you thought about this potential gamechanger?
greene and jetta for wines and rockliff? make it happen?
thought the greene machine would ramp up his output from last season, same with jetta. his grand final run seduced me!

@PeterHiggo

Very sensible trading … Do it!

John

One thing I've learnt is that you don't score supercoach points for run and carry, just the result of those touches.

Bustling Barrys

Hey Higgo,
I was really disappointed with Ben Jacobs from Nth. Thinking of downgrading to Luke Brown as I'm thinking they may score the same. Thoughts??

@MRB37

What do you plan to do with the extra cash?

Brown will be playing a shutdown role for the Crows so his SC scores will probably be limited to the 50's and 60's. Jacobs didn't look all that great (I have him also and am probably getting rid of him). At the very worst Brown will generate some cash for you and I reckon his job security is pretty high as the Crows don't have many players to fill the void that's there due to Doughty retiring.

Reckon give Jacobs 1 more week, if he doesn't look any better give him the flick.

Bustling Barrys

Yep, one more week shouldn't hurt to see how they both perform.
Thanks!

Eddie

Thinking of downgrading S.Atley to a Rookie, then trade K.Stevens or K.Lucas for D.Mundy or even B.Moloney, freeing my up with some cash $$$ thoughts?

dan

sounds like a plan loose lucas

Stan

Thinking of Lecra for monfries???

steve

jjk all the way

Adam

Have both shuey and Watts ….. too early to move on these?

davo

id hold shuey and trade watts down for a rookie to save cash and get more cash from the rookies improvement after round 3, but hey im ranked 50, 074

SCaddict

Yes unless you need to urgently get in someone like GAJ, Rocky, Gibbs or one of the lock rookies. But if you have all these bases covered already then I recommend you sit it out trade wise this week and have a good look at these two boys this weekend as well as how the rest of the AFL competition performs.

Rocksta

I wouldn't trade Shuey out unless it is up to a 'Lock'premium mid such as Watson, Selwood,Pendles,GAJ. too early to move on Watts

TA1

Very seriously considering Karnezis and Newman to Monfries and Birchall. Had a panic trade pre game of Monfries to Karnezis and am already regretting it. Thoughts muchly appreciated.

chandanrajdb

Hi Community,

Need Some help really….RUCK Structure….

Have got COX, ROUGHEAD, BLICAVS, CURRIE

Have got ROWE in the forward.

I am thinking of using 2 trades this week

Option – 1

1. Out LeCras and swing Roughead into the forward line and bring in Leuneberger

2. Out Currie and swing Rowe to Ruck and bring Dwyer.

I will be left with $205,600 left in the bank if i do the above 2 trades

Or

Option – 2

1. Out LeCras and bring in Dwyer

2. Out Roughead and bring in Leuenberger

If I do the above trades i will be left with @650,900…..the reason for th 2nd option was Bailey is named in the team which will effect Roughead's score this week again….which means Roughead's price will drop by a huge amount…….

Which option is good & What do you guys think. Need Help very badly….any suggestions / comments would be highly appreciated….

Thank you,
Raj

@MRB37

Reckon you give it another week Raj. If Roughie stinks up the joint again then that'll probably show you which trade to make.

chandanrajdb

Hmmm….Ok I will be trading out LeCras to S Dwyer this week… generate some cash and look to go big next week……like Currie to Luenberger (if he does score well though!!!) and zorko to some performing premium forward…..or dangerfield to one of these GUNS – JPK, Jobe Watson, Dane Swan or even may be Barlow….

Three Guns in my team are on notice…..1. Dangerfield 2. Roughead 3. Zorko…..if any of these guys doesnt perform well, then couple of them will be going…….i do not want to decrease my team value by having these highly paid GUNS and performing not as good as they should be for that price…..

Thanks for your reply above mate…..

Much appreciated…..

Raj…

matt

should i get rid of roughy now that the hawks might go with the bailey/hale ruck

dan

just an interesting fact for people playing silly buggers with there captain (like i did last week and wont do again)

abletts last 8 scores against the swans 171, 19, 135, 203, 164, 155, 254, 122 the 19 was when he did his knee early last season

welcome!

taggath

Fancy sharing the mean and SD for the entire dataset, Higgo? For both SC & DT if you could, please. πŸ™‚

Tom

WHAT ABOUT!
Fyfe –> Cunnington
Dangerfield –> Ablett
LeCras –> Kennedy

Thoughts?

Jimmy

Maybe if you want to trade fyfe –> Moloney.

Knave

Keep Fyfe he'll should be good through out the season. Ablett is a big price what i did was keep Dangerfield and later in the season if one of your premiums does bad trade to Gary Ablett if he cant keep that big price. As for LeCras and Kennedy that's a good option πŸ˜‰

dan

you dont have that many trades

Tim

Who shoul I get rid of for Goldstein out Ryder and Roughead!

I don’t like bailey, hale and Roughead all playing in the same team and Ryder should play like he did last year so who should I get rid of?????!!!!

Help!!

SCaddict

Too hard to tell after just one game so perhaps wait a week if you can.

Roughy does have the slight benefit of being a DPP so I give him the slightest of edges right now but Paddy could light it up against the Dees tomorrow and Roughy could have another quiet one for all I know.

tension

temptation was too great – had to get bryce in as I didn't have him.

cost an awkward two trades but felt it had to be done, didn't compromise any other key prems or rooks.

hope it pays off.

SCaddict

He'll have his ups and downs like all players but he's the must have in your back line.

Jimmy

Will anybody be trading in the leuenberger this week now that he is playing?

Knave

Came back from an achilles injury did pump out a good score choose wisely

Jimmy

Thoughts on Jack Hutchins from Gold Coast, played a few games last year and was drafted as an underage recruit. Only 115,900? What do you people think?

tension

Dees you are a disgrace at the moment. No tackles, no contested ball, no game plan.

Must win against the Giants in Round 4. No excuses.

#NeeldOut