Hello again community. Is there anybody else out there who is glad that round one is finally over and we are now locked out from changing our sides every 5 minutes? Or are we??
Oh yes, put your hand up if you were one of the many thousands of coaches who went into work this morning and went straight onto Supercoach to make that trade you have been thinking about for the entire weekend. Don’t be shy …. maybe you are an extreme type, like this guy;
If you had a listen to the great “Gary Ablett” song, the very first piece of advice to be dished out after the certainty that you must pick Gary Ablett was:
“Understand the power and importance of your trades”
I was once of the staunch non-trader after round one type, but that was back in the day when we were limited to just 20 trades in a year. The times have changed and we now have 50% more trades and with such a large number of trades, corrective trades early are now an important aspect of the game. However this doesn’t mean we should just trade for the sake of trading and there are some must have rules when you decide to trade. It’s very simple but every time you hit that trade button you must ask yourself two questions
Will this trade make my team earn more points?
Is this the best trade I can make for my team to earn the most points possible?
As simple as those two questions are you will be surprised how many coaches will trade this week with the answer to one or both of those questions being NO.
I will give you a perfect example of a scenario for Question One; A vast number of coaches are contemplating trading out Dangerfield for JP Kennedy, like the guy in the video clip above. If I was to ask myself if this trade going to earn my team more points the answer for me is a simple NO. What people must remember is that while Kennedy may have outscored Dangerfield by 80 points in round one, that round is over and those 80 points are no longer on offer. Yes Kennedy may outscore Dangerfield again next week but the season is not two rounds long it’s 23 rounds, and you have to ask yourself is Kennedy going to outscore Dangerfield over the next 22 rounds. If you look at last year’s averages as a guide and assume both players will average similar numbers, this would mean that Dangerfield will average 120 over the next 21 rounds to end up with an average of 118 for the season. I still think this will be on the low side. While Kennedy will average 119 for the rest of the year to average the 120 he posted last year. Again Kennedy may kick on to average more than 120 but there is equally a chance he could go on to average less than 120. One round posting a good score doesn’t mean that he is going to repeat scores in the 140’s every week. Remember he did post scores of 139 and 137 in the first two rounds last year but that didn’t see him finish with an average in the high 130’s.
This doesn’t just apply to this Dangerfield to Kennedy trade but quite a few of the other under performing premiums and midpricers from round one to others that went off in round one. I have seen a few Fyfe to Mundy trades, or Sheuy to Barlow, or Martin to Wright, or Goddard to Hartlett and the list goes on. After round one there is no way of knowing if any of these so called sideways trades will earn your team more points and the chances are that the majority of them won’t. One bad score doesn’t make a premium a Dud, just like one good score doesn’t make a midpricer a Lock.
The second question on your checklist is a little more complicated and sometimes the answer is not always clear cut but this question is actually far more important than the first one. Many coaches get fixated on certain players in their team and look to trade them out or upgrade them before another player that is actually contributing less to their team.
A very simplified example of such a scenario would be coaches losing patience with Dustin Martin and fixating on him because he promises so much and then doesn’t deliver, frustrating all the coaches that have selected him. Even though Dustin is still scoring in the high 80’s the coaches will look to trade Dustin out due to this frustration and ignore the other areas in their teams that could offer more points from a corrective trade. So for example the coach may Trade Dustin to another player of similar price like Mathew Wright who for argument sake will average 10 points more a game. Meanwhile this coach has made other select errors like picking Jones over Viney and Mitchel over Wines. So instead of making the Mitchel to Wines trade which has the potential to increase the teams score by 30 to 40 points a game this coach has used a trade that will only increase his score by 10 points.
This will be one of thousands of trades that will happen over the season that while they may increase the team’s scoring, they will not be the best possible trade that will score the team the most possible points.
As devoted members of the Jock Reynolds community I urge you to please understand the power and importance of your trades. Use this very simple check list before you hit the trade button and if you answer “NO” to either of the two questions then simply don’t make the trade.
Mick the Mad Irishman