Time for some smokies by Mr Crimmins.

Published by Jock on

AFL supercoach smokies

It always warmed my heart when kids who were selected last in my PE classes went on to dominate games. I was in their very shoes when Melbourne under 19s decided to unfairly de-list me. I know how the feel.

I started to notice a strong correlation between those picked first, and the number of Facespace friends they have. But I always found it wasn’t the popular kids who made the best students.

There’s a similar trend forming in the AFL fantasy community. It’s very easy to load up on your Swans, Abletts, Goddards, but they don’t always win you games, especially if everyone else in your league has them. My old man had a fair say in the fantasy industry. One thing he used to always tell me was “popular picks score you points, unique picks win you games”. I believe he is spot on the money. The lower the number of mutual players, the higher the chance of victory…provided you get your picks right.

There’s a heap of unique smokies raring to show their worth, but I have narrowed the list down to the 5 you should seriously consider.

Andrew Carrazzo (CARL) – MID ($517,800 SC/$467,400 DT)

Highly respected at Visy Park. Andrew hasn’t been feeling the love amongst the fantasy community since losing his DPP (Dual Position Player) tag. In season 2013, Andrew can only be selected as a MID and this will definitely scare away a good percentage of the community. However, the DPP removal makes him a unique pick. One thing’s for sure, there is nothing unique about Andrew’s scoring. He is incredibly consistent, probably the only player in the game who can rack up disposals, while playing as a tagger. In season 2012, he won more disposals than his direct opponent in all but 3 games. He also averaged career high contested possessions and more clearances than any other player at the football club.

However, the stat that wins you’re old friend Crimmins over is this: Andrew has the most disposals per giveaway in the competition, averaging a whopping 43.1 disposals per turnover. In a game like SuperCoach, this is gold. A turnover will cost you -4 points in SuperCoach, so you want someone like Carrazzo who will hit a target. Not the likes of Dustin Martin (who’s in the top 5 fewest disposals per giveaway). He’s on the border of premium price, but could hold down a MID 4 or MID 5 spot depending on how you structure your side. Gibbs and Murphy seem to be the 2 grabbing all the attention, so the selection of Carrazzo is a unique one, and could be a real POD (point of difference in industry speak).

Tom Liberatore (WBD) – MID ($444,400 SC/$401,300 DT)

Son of former Dogs champion Tony, Tom will again – like the rest of that Footscray list – live in the fantasy shadow of Matthew Boyd. I do believe though Tom has what it takes to make his own as a fantasy footballer. His 2013 has gotten off to a pretty solid start – 80 DT points against Hawthorn on Friday night, plus scores of 24 and 32 in round 1. While NAB Cup form isn’t everything, it is a good sign.

Tom is also as hard as they come, and holds a statistic which will surprise most. In 2012 he was the 6th in the league for contested possession out of any AFL midfielder who averaged 20+ disposals per game. He averaged the 14th most clearances, converting 89% of first possessions into a clearance. On top of this, he joins Andrew Carrazzo in top 10 for most disposals per giveaway, averaging 35.1 touches per turnover. However, one area of Tom’s game which lacks is his goal kicking. He only kicked 4 goals last season, which suggests he’ll be playing solely as an in-and-under footballer. But, don’t let that scare you off. Mini Libba is over the 2nd year blues (despite still averaging a solid 83 points) and ready to breakout at age 20 if you look at Higgo’s article on “The Breakout Zone”. SuperCoach only, but could be one who finally challenges Boyd for fantasy top Dog.

Matthew Wright (ADEL) – FWD/MID ($475,300 SC/$438,700 DT)

The buzz player of the competition right now is Patrick Dangerfield. Many, including our own Mad Irishman, are very excited about what he could become this season. With all the attention on young Patrick, a few gems have slipped under the radar. One I’m very bullish about is Matthew Wright. He’s not cheap, but a DPP who looks ready for a big 2013. Scores of 46 and 34 in the round robin games were a little taste of what we should expect this season.

Matthew will spend a bit of time in the middle this year, after a successful change of role last season. This saw the second biggest increase in disposals at the club behind Dangerfield. 51% of these disposals were won in the forward half, and was involved in 22% of Adelaide’s scoring chains. When in the guts, he recorded the third-most clearances of the top 10 centre-bounce attendees at the Crows. This will be his 3rd year in the system now, and after averaging 89 SC points in 2012, expect Wright to break into the 90s. An attacking player who can run through the guts is fantasy gold. Definitely a substantial consideration.

Patrick Karnezis (BRIS) – FWD ($262,200 SC/$238,500 DT)

If you were to mention the words “Karnezis” and “Fantasy” in the same breath prior to NAB Cup, I would’ve told you to get down and do 100 push ups because you’re talking nonsense. However, he’s just about become the buzz player this pre-season, and has many of us excited. It’s one thing to get rowdy about Patrick, but it’s another to actually pick him in your round 1 side. Selecting Karnezis could mean sacrificing a bargain like Varcoe, Burns or Knights. It’s a risk that myself, Mr Crimmins, is willing to take.

His NAB Cup scores have been excellent. He scored 45 in the only round robin game he played, and then 80 the following week. In the pre-season game v GWS, he collected 26 disposals at 80% efficiency. Patrick’s shown in the past he has an eye for goal, kicking 17 goals from 11 games in 2011. While his 2012 was significantly sub-affected, Pat’s form in the NEAFL will raise eyebrows. In 14 games he averaged 28 touches, which included 30+ six times.

As mentioned before, his AFL showing was limited, but scored an 88 and 91 SuperCoach points in 2 of the 3 games he wasn’t vested. A fair number of people are jumping up and down about Patrick Karnezis this pre-season, but not sure many will follow through and sacrifice a Knights or Varcoe. Continue to keep an eye on him as the NAB Cup draws to a close, could be as good value as any mid-priced player.

Michael Walters (FRE) – FWD ($404,600 SC/$330,400 DT)

Ross the Boss loves giving a bloke an opportunity. Like Uncle Jock, he’s willing to put a man under his wing and guide him on his way. Michael Walters was unfit, banished from the club and serious concerns were raised as to whether this kid was going to make it as an AFL footballer. However, given a chance late in 2012, he finally showed us his full potential.

Michael played every game from round 16 onwards, including two stellar games in the elimination and semi finals. He finished with the second biggest rise in SuperCoach points at the club and was also the second-ranked forward at the club, kicking 22 goals in 10 games. This saw him ranked in the elite category of all forwards in the competition. Walters could be a serious player, especially in the fantasy caper. All the focus has centered around Sandiman and Nat Fyfe this pre-season, so Michael has slipped under the radar. Selecting him will be as unique as they come but could be a potential match-winning risk.
Fantasy bragging rights are everything. You nail a potential league-winning selection and you’ll never have to buy a light beer at your local RSL ever again. Our great game is not how many safe option you’ve selected, it’s about the ballsy calls, and they can win you premierships.

Are there any unique picks you’re considering this season? 

Mr Crimmins

 


55 Comments

SCaddict · 07/03/2013 at 20:54

Interesting read Mr Crimmins. The pick up the bunch for me would be Karnezis though not sure he's too much of a smokey any more after his ripper NAB Cup form collecting plenty of the pill. His team mate Cornelius also have the eye of many coaches now.

Kane Lucas is one I'm keenly following who probably isn't in too many teams right now due to his no man's land price of $217K and indifferent form in prior years. But Mick really seems to be a believer in him.

    Bomber Stef · 07/03/2013 at 23:20

    I tend to agree with you on Kane Lucas – only downside is that it is NAB Cup and the likes of Judd aren't running around. Question is … does he have a permanent spot in the team or is he more of a fill in type player!?!?

      SCaddict · 07/03/2013 at 23:46

      Yeah I can only really fit either Koby Stevens or Kane Lucas in my team as it stands and it's Koby who's there right now.

Marc · 07/03/2013 at 20:57

DING on Matthew Wright, Mr Crimmins. Hopefully increased midfield time can reduce the fluxuations of his scores a bit more this year. He never strung together a prolonged period of quality scores, he'd have frustrating up and downs. For example between rounds 16-22, he scored 105, 99, then down to 64, leaped up to 170, down to 58 and then back up to 110. He does seem to like playing Fremantle however, averaged 131 in his 3 games against them last year (somewhat inflated due to the big 170 he scored in round 20). I've eased up on my Walker selection for now and in my current team have actually gone for Matty Wright as a bit of a POD instead of Dustin Martin.

I like Carrazzo, he'd be a definite lock in my side if he retained DEF eligibility, but I probably won't pick him as a MID this year. Interesting choice though and one that will probably be overlooked by people going for other "upside" mid pricers like Fyfe, Shuey and Mundy.

AFL Guru · 07/03/2013 at 21:22

Crimmins mate as always I love your work. One thing that has me worried about Wright is Rory Sloane is due for an increases output too I feel. With Dangerfield Sloane and Thompson carving up midfield SC points will there be any leftover for Wright?

Karnezis will be in my team at this stage.

Still looking for that real smokey POD though. It’s usually only 3-4 players different between the top sides in my league and its those players that win the match. I’m taking a massive gamble that Leuenberger will return to elite status and rack up 100+ in my ruck every week. Therefore Currie will be my R2 (probably as a reserve R2 initially to allow Rowe to be my C to take advantage of C loophole). Dangerfield will start the season as my VC with the big C going to Gazza if he scores anything under 130.

Lecras, Varco and Sippos were myPOD prospects before the hype about them and Kane Mitchell was locked before NAB1.

Need a POD defender I think. Seems most defense lines will be poorly managed this year with good forward and midfield options. A POD back there could win it for you. Gibbs is getting a chance and not sure whether to run a Shaw and Newman D1 D3 with Gibbs or Hartlett, Heppel, Duffield or Watts. I’m banking on all the premium defenders to stagnate in price due to reduced kick in time and increased pressure.

Parker or Martin has me in a bind at the moment

Luke · 07/03/2013 at 21:33

B – Goddard Gibbs Heppell duffield Goodes Colqohoun (terlich docherty)
M – Swan Pendlebury Dangerfield Schuey Fyfe Stevens Mitchell Crouch (viney omeara)
R – Jacobs lueunburger (Rowe currie)
F – Cox Zorko rockliff Lewis varcoe macaffer (kerridge Dwyer)

Bartel or Zorko?
Duffield or Atley?
I'd this a good team? Any no or yes's . Do you like it? What can I improve on. Feedback k would be great

    Bomber Stef · 07/03/2013 at 23:22

    If you can find some cash i would consider the following formula:

    Swan & Pendles < Ablett & Pendles < Swan & Ablett

jOhN · 07/03/2013 at 21:35

David Hale best smokie

    Bomber Stef · 07/03/2013 at 23:16

    IMO he was one of last years smokies – plenty of better ruck/fwd options out there for a bit more of a premium price you get more consistency.

    Although you would expect him to play all games this year pending injury.

    Hoss · 08/03/2013 at 00:19

    Got him last year as a r2. paid off heaps

Jimbo · 07/03/2013 at 21:42

Please place your vote on my Forward 3 option. http://polldaddy.com/poll/6941557/

Any other suggestions please leave a comment.

Cheers

Alex Fasolo as a smokie??

Josh · 07/03/2013 at 22:25

Off topic, but has anyone got a draft league going with a spare spot? Cheers!

    Westy · 08/03/2013 at 19:17

    272118 – just my bro and I so far, but he's a Jock enthusiast too. Happy to open it to the rest of the community here as well.

Henry · 07/03/2013 at 22:58

Before the NAB is was like you Mr Crimmins – keen on Michael Walters. But his NAB form has been ordinary to say the least. And I think I detect a breakout year for Jordan Roughead.

Bomber Stef · 07/03/2013 at 23:19

Anyone considered Shannon Byrnes as a "smokie" … $230k stepping into a team where you would expect him to play that mid resting forward role without being tagged.

Bit of a goal sneak and has a great left foot …

Could be considered for a gamble pick?!?!

    Eagle · 08/03/2013 at 02:53

    into a crap team that will not deliver him good ball
    FAIL!

      Shannon · 08/03/2013 at 15:14

      At $230,000 I’ve taken the punt on him. He should play every week if fit and will gain value. If he consistently scores 70’s – 80’s he could stay in your side until mid season and be an upgrade option later. The question is do you take him or Krakouer???

    Kev · 08/03/2013 at 16:30

    Personally I try to avoid small fwds. I don't see the dees using him through the middle often, his scores will rely upon him kicking a bag each week.

Slotters · 08/03/2013 at 08:28

I’ve actually got Toby Greene in my Mid as a smokie at the moment, big money for 500k but the kid is a freak! Killed it in Nab1 and Nab2 against Lions came I at half time and still got 19 disps and a goal. That’s the type of performance you get from Swanny and Ablett, I’m a GWS man too so hope to see big things from this young superstar. Also taking a crack on Dustin Martin this year, he let me down last year but apperently Choc Williams is on the job to get the best out of him.

    Shannon · 08/03/2013 at 15:16

    Would rather Gibbs or Rockliff around the same money. Nice POD though… hope he turns out to be what GWS fans are hoping.

Nateo · 08/03/2013 at 09:28

pass

Tomy gun · 08/03/2013 at 11:56

What’s everyones thoughts on Matthew spahnger ?

Jared · 08/03/2013 at 12:13

Hartlett or Heppell anyone!?!

    Kev · 08/03/2013 at 16:18

    Hartlett's hammies are made out of blu-tack. Heppell is the safe option

Bomber Stef · 08/03/2013 at 13:18

Tough one mate – stats wise Hartlett is the better option.

Not much difference in price.

I'd go heppell because he plays in a better team and will get some midfield time as well.

Tough call though – could be a flip of the coin pick.

    JJFyzz · 08/03/2013 at 15:56

    Hey Bomber, do you reckon Heppel or Watts. I have Watts and $48,600 left in the kitty.

    Bacs are: Gibbs, Birchall, Duffield, Watts, Vlaustin and B Goodes. (Docherty and Colquhoun)

      Bomber Stef · 08/03/2013 at 18:33

      I would try work on the strategy of having 4 locked in premiums to stay with you throughout the season (subject to long term injury) … the other 4 defenders use as cash cows/trade bait.

      Based on that strategy, Heppell > Watts mate.

      Togg · 08/03/2013 at 21:40

      If you dont have goddard you have to have heppell

pee · 08/03/2013 at 13:23

thoughts on R.Sloane as a POD premium smokey

2010 ave 75
2011 ave 88
2012 ave 105

Can onoly see this going up for a guy about to turn 23.

    Bomber Stef · 08/03/2013 at 18:35

    22nd best midfielder in 2012 and plays along side Danger and Thompson.

    He is a good get if you can fit him into your team.

    I still prefer Danger over Sloane though.

    Marc · 08/03/2013 at 18:51

    Don't think you'll see much higher scores from him, but hopefully he won't have the drop-off in the 2nd half of the year like he did last season (rounds 1-12 he had 3 sub 100 scores, rounds 13+ he had 7)

Terry · 08/03/2013 at 13:53

Not a blues supporter, Mitch Robinson is looking the goods as a POD FWD…

Mick Malthouse effect?

had good scores last year: 121, 122, 128 and 161.
last week v freo he collected 26 touches, 4 tackles and 2 goals for a score of 144…

may go up a gear this yr?

JJFyzz · 08/03/2013 at 15:54

Ahhhhh!!! I've finally caved.

Buddy out. LeCras out.

StevieJ and Robinson in!! I'll take the hit week 1 with StevieJ

    JJFyzz · 08/03/2013 at 15:57

    Fwds now

    Cox, Zorko, Stevie J, Robinson, Varcoe and Byrnes

      PortJared04 · 08/03/2013 at 16:20

      Who are in your rucks?

        JJFyzz · 08/03/2013 at 22:04

        Smith and Leuy

Kev · 08/03/2013 at 16:24

Any thoughts on Jon Griffin with Sandi out for a few months?

    Bomber Stef · 08/03/2013 at 18:40

    Only thought is that he would have more minutes – not necessary score some consistently high points.

    I think Sandi is in the no go zone as he is so injury prone.

Jimmy · 08/03/2013 at 18:01

Really would love some advice. Any comments. Don't care what you say just say something. Thanks jim.

Defenders –
B. Goodard
B. Gibbs
J. Watts
D. Heppell
N.Vlaustin
B.Goodes
Subs – D. Terlich, S.Colquhoun

Midfielder –
G. Ablett
S. Pendlebury
T. Cotchin
M. Murphy
N. Fyfe
S. Mayes
K. Mitchell
J. O'meara
Subs – J.Viney, B. Crouch

Rucks –
T. Goldstein
M. Leuenberger
Subs – S. Rowe, D. Currie

Forwards –
L. Franklin
D. Cox
G. Broughton
M. LeCras
T. Varcoe
J. Stringer or J. Daniher
Subs – B. Macaffer, B. Staker

Please advice.

    Bomber Stef · 08/03/2013 at 18:38

    Broughton as a forward starter? Cox as a forward starter?

    IMO Broughton and Cox would be better started as Defender and Ruck respectively.

    I would have Paddy Ryder instead of Goldstein. Currie seems to have big wraps!

      PortJared04 · 08/03/2013 at 19:22

      Just wondering why not Cox in FWD along with Broughton in FWD?

      Kev · 08/03/2013 at 22:08

      Have to disagree there – Rowe is there for the ruck/fwd swing, Cox up forward makes sense. Same with Broughton/Watts. Personally the def/fwd swing isn't a big deal to me, but I understand the strategy.

      Few issues with the rooks. Colquhoun is just so skinny! I don't see him playing often, some better port rookies like pittard or Stevenson. Stringer and Staker are injured, haven't seen Mayes or Daniher so far this preseason.

      Goldy was a steal before NAB cup, not so sure now…

PortJared04 · 08/03/2013 at 19:26

Any thoughts on my RUCKs?
Jacobs, Luenburger (Currie, Witts)

With Cox and (Rowe) in my FWD line

Muss1 · 08/03/2013 at 19:36

I think I've changed my ruck combination around 20 times now.. At this stage I've gone for paddy Ryder and leunberger with big coxy up forward.
What are your thoughts on this?

Cheers

@Vince_Gambino · 08/03/2013 at 20:18

Love your work Crimmo. Not bad for an old dude! Feel free to come in for an ice cream one day. (yes, I will give you a discount)

super · 08/03/2013 at 21:17

hey whats your opinion on kane lucas, zach smith and michael barlow for somokeys this year?? 🙂

    super · 08/03/2013 at 21:29

    or even whitecross and lecras? massive risks nut could any pay off?

      SCaddict · 10/03/2013 at 18:03

      Lecras would be a worthy selection who is looking up and about and seemingly well past that ACL injury and more than capable of premium output.

      However Whitecross is still a fair way behind on his preparations and he was talking about a Rd 10ish return during the Hawks Tiges telecast yesterday.

    Mac · 08/03/2013 at 21:47

    Kane lucas will improve but it unlikely to reach premium status
    Zach Smith will probably score 80+ under Primus this season. I have him in my side at the moment with the intention of upgrading him to Nic Nat.
    Michael Barlow is a good POD and will probably score 110+. Not many will pick him because of Fyfe/Mundy in the same team.
    Whitecross I honestly don't know too much about so can't comment.
    Lecras will pick up where he left off before being injured, but will only hover around the $400,000 mark.

chris · 09/03/2013 at 12:41

what do you think on my team?
def: h shaw, waters, gibbs, birchall, enright, colquhon, goodes, docherty
mid: ablett, pendlebury, scotland, rockliff, moloney, wines, omeara, viney, k mitchell, crouch
ruck: luenberger, vardy, rowe, currie
fwd: franklin, cox, lecras, varcoe, byrnes, menzel, macaffer, lee

forward line might be a bit underdeveloped and rucks are risky
i have 340,200 dollars still in my salary cap also so can make many changes still if i need

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