When does an AFL player peak? Peter Higginbotham
As Supercoach and Dreamteam professionals we stand on the shoulders of giants. Archimedes, Isaac Newton, Gauss, Bernhard Riemann. The greatest mathematicians that the world have ever seen constructed the mathematical foundation for the game that we have all come to love.
And while their teachings have formed the foundation of my staggering rise to prominence in the Australian Fantasy Football industry the same can not be said of many up and coming fantasy coaches looking to form a name for themselves in this game. The time has come for me to pass on some mathematical truths that will change the way you select your Supercoach and/or AFL Fantasy team.
Free your mind of prejudice. Forget what you thought you knew. Free yourselves of Jock inspired “gut feel”, throw off the shackles that emotionally attach you to a certain way of thinking.
I want you to see this game as a majestic orchestra of kaleidoscopic numbers to which you hold the baton.
WHEN DOES A SUPERCOACH PLAYER “PEAK”?
You will see in exhibit A above that I have collated the seasonal Supercoach average of 31 current AFL football gladiators with some surprising results. The Y axis represents a player’s Supercoach average. The X axis his age in years. A preliminary examination of these results reveal some truths that may surprise some;
A supercoach player is statistically likely to peak at 22 years of age
Yes our cherished community of fantasy football enthusiasts – sometimes it takes the elegant simplicity of numbers to challenge previously held misconceptions. Many of the un-initiated spruik the wares of prospects such as Patrick Dangerfield (22), Luke Shuey (22), Dayne Beams (23) and Steele Sidebottom (22) due to the fact that they “have not reached their peak”. I would like to propose that these young lions are statistically likely to have reached their peak already.
A player is statistically most likely to enter a recession around the age of 26
Beware the mid career form slump. Another misconception is that a player is at the peak of their powers in their mid to late twenties. This is statistically untrue. In fact it seems that according to this sample that a player – after plateauing since the age of 22 – is likely to degenerate into recession around the age of 26-27 years of age. So it seems that – statistically speaking – Lance Franklin, Dane Swan, Brandon Goddard – these gentlemen carry a reduced likelihood of an increased output in 2013.
There are infinite layers of knowledge hidden in the beautiful and predictable realm of mathematics my friends. To reach the zenith of Supercoach and/or AFL Fantasy performance you must apply sound mathematical logic when formulating a winning Supercoach team.
“Johnny come lately’s” such as The Mad Irishman may fumble upon elements of mathematical reason when arriving at a conclusion. I will let the community judge who holds the cards around this community with regard to mathematical prowess as I reveal more mathematical arsenal in the weeks to come.
“A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be.”
Peter HigginbothamBarton Tafe Applied Mathematics class of 1982
- players used in sample: Adam Goodes, Jonathan Brown, Ted Richards, Chris Judd, Heath Scotland, Alan Didak, Corey Enright, Jimmy Bartel, Paul Chapman, Joel Selwood, Steve Johnson, Lance Franklin, Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell, Brett Deledio, Chris Newman, Shane Tuck, Justin Koschitske, Lenny Hayes, Nick Riewoldt, Sam Fisher, Matthew Boyd, Robert Murphy, Beau Waters, Daniel Kerr, Dean Cox, Scott Selwood, Dustin Fletcher, Jobe Watson, Greame Johncock, Michael Rischitelli