Patrick Dangerfield – to another level in 2013?
If you are just getting into the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community for another year or if you’re new to the Jock Community there will be links at the bottom of this page for you to catch up on my previous articles. Over the next few weeks I will be looking at a few players from the next bracket of Supercoach Premiums “The Elites”, starting today with Patrick Dangerfield.
This kid had been tipped for pretty big things since he was drafted at pick 10 in the 2007 national draft. Last season we finally saw him fulfil his potential and then some. From an AFL Fantasy point of view you would have picked up Paddy priced to average 80.3 points at $435,400 at the start of last season and he would go on to average 118.9 points, increasing his average by 37.6 points a game. That’s right I said THIRTY-SEVEN point SIX points. This was easily that largest points increase of any player who finished with Premium, Elite or Super Elite status. This made Patrick Dangerfield the best initial pick of the 2012 Supercoach season.
So what contributed to such a breakout year for Paddy??
Let’s start by looking at his stats shall we.
- He averaged 15.6 kicks, 11.1 handballs, 0.9 goals and 3.1 tackles a game.
- Not bad numbers in the disposal count ranked 14th in disposals per game
- Was a little behind in the tackle count and goals per game on some of the more polished Elite and Super Elite players in the competition.
- However if we delve a little deeper and look at the type of possessions won we learn that Paddy finished the comp ranked 1st in total inside 50’s, 2nd in total contested possessions, 3rd in total clearances and 3rd in total kicks.
- Just in case anybody doesn’t know what this all means, to put it simply you are sitting on a Supercoach GOLD mine. Add to this the fact that he was ranked 18th for Total Time on Ground, which just shows that he has a massive tank to go with his impressive contested numbers and at least you can understand where the 37.6 points per game increase has come from.
Why did we see such a massive improvement in his stats in 2012 and what can we expect in 2013?
Well there really are a number of reasons for such an increase in his stats but the biggest of those would be the appointment of Brenton Sanderson as Adelaide coach back in September 2011. Now I could write an entire article on his impact but to break it down simply Sanderson has adopted a very simple game plan that sees Adelaide target the breakdown as a key area for winning the ball. Once they get the pill they kick the ball forward and inside the forward 50 as quickly and as often as possible. Granted it’s a little more complicated than that but the net effect saw Adelaide’s contested possession numbers soar along with their kick to handball ratio and inside 50’s.
We saw Patrick Dangerfield play the majority of his time in the forward line in 2011 under Neil Craig. Sanderson saw the potential to use Paddy as the quick, powerful and fully committed inside midfielder that would suit the game plan that he wanted to adopt. The rest as they say is History. After a reasonably slow start to the season he went on to dominate in all those key aspects around the breakdown. Winning contested possessions. Winning clearances and pumping the ball inside 50 in a very successful Adelaide outfit. The only negative we can pull from Patrick Dangerfield’s stats from last year is that he was ranked 4th in total clangers. However when you dissect the nature of Adelaide’s game plan it’s going to be extremely difficult to find a target every time when you kick the ball forward with every opportunity you get, blind or otherwise. This may explain the somewhat erratic nature of Paddy’s Supercoach scoring in 2012.
Patrick scored below 100 on 9 occasions last year with a low score of 86. Although the number of times he dropped below 100 is not ideal a low score of 86 is very solid and shows even in his poor displays he was very much still influencing the game. In fact he only dropped below 20 disposals twice and in his two lowest scores he had 23 and 28 disposals respectively, with only his efficiency letting him down. And just to give you some sort of reference to just how good that low score is, Ablett recorded a low of 64 and Pendlebury recorded a low 62. On the upper scale of his scoring he produced scores of over 130 on 8 occasions which included scores of 169, 174 and a massive high of 187.
That is impressive.
Ok so we have looked at what Paddy managed to produce in 2012 but I can tell you’re all itching for me to get to the meat and spuds and tell you how Paddy will go in 2013. I have being keeping an eye on the “How is your team going folks” page and I have noticed that Paddy isn’t a very popular pick. He seems to be overlooked over almost all the other options in his price bracket. I was almost tempted to keep what I’m about to tell you to myself but we here at the Jock Renyolds Fantasy community aren’t for keeping the best kept secrets in the game to ourselves. We like to get you the best information you can get.
That’s why I’m telling you Patrick Dangerfield is an absolute lock in my 2013 side.
If we go back to his 2012 scores I’d just like to point out a few things.
- Rounds 1-7, new coach, new game plan, new role – finding his feet: averaged 105.1.
- Rounds 8-15 learning and understanding new coach, new game plan, new role: averaged 110.7
- Rounds 16-23 nailed down and fully embraced roll and game plan: averaged 138
In 2013 Patrick will be starting the year where he left off in 2012 from the point of view that he has now played a full year as a key inside midfield contested ball winner in a successful team. He now knows what is expected of him and his teammates. There will not be a period where he will have to learn a new role in 2013. It should be noted that 5 of his 9 scores below 100 came in his first 7 rounds where he was “finding his feet”.
Here is the real scary thing. He is only 22 years of age, with his prime still very much ahead of him and there is still plenty of room and scope for improvement going forward. One area of his stats where I expect to see an improvement in 2013 is his tackle count. Adelaide actually finished 16th in the competition for tackles per game and 16th for tackle differential at -6.5 tackles a game. Brenton Sanderson will be very much aware of this and I believe it will be one of the few areas that Adelaide will be targeting for a vast improvement in 2013. This then can only be a good thing for Dangerfield who currently lags behind the other super elite players in this category. And just in case you don’t truly understand the importance of a high tackle count, when Dangerfield scored his SC high score of 187 in 2012 he had a season high tackle count of 8 in that game.
Don’t be surprised to see Paddy’s goal numbers increase too. Paddy failed to kick a goal in 10 games last season but again half of these occurred in the first 7 games in that period that I have termed “finding his feet”. If you also look at natural progression with that extra experience gained in and around the pack I would expect that he will also improve on not only his total possessions but also his efficiency.
I still expect him to rank high on the clanger count because I don’t see Adelaide changing their game plan too much, if at all in 2013. After all they were only one kick away from a grand final berth in 2012. But instead of finishing 4th in total clangers as he did in 2012 he may finish around 9th or 10th which will still make a huge contribution to his SC scores. With that element of inefficiency I still expect to see a few scores under 100 in 2013.. but far fewer than the 9 in 2012. On the other side with the expected improvement in key areas I expect to see even more monster scores over 130 and if everything all comes together in the one game don’t be surprised if we gain another member to the 200 point club.
The only aspect of Dangerfield that I am slightly concerned about is his durability factor. This might seem a little strange because he hasn’t missed a game in the last two seasons but much like Joel Selwood at Geelong, Dangerfield has very little regard for his body. He will always put his body on the line to win the ball which every coach and fan loves to see but the nature of his play is likely to leave him concussed and may force him off the ground early and maybe even miss the next round. It’s happened to Selwood in the last two seasons, however there is nothing anybody can do about it and a lot will depend on luck and what mood those “Supercaoch Gods” are in.
One last piece of trivia that I would like to leave you with
Let’s do a quick comparison with the undisputed king of Fanstay, Gary Ablett. Ablett had his break out year in 2007 averaging 114.2pts per round. His roll changed from a forward to a midfielder from the previous year. Ranked 1st for inside 50’s, had 6 scores below hundred with a low of 68 and had 6 scores above 130 with a high of 170. Look familiar to anything we just discussed ??? Oh and then he went on to breakout again in 2008 increasing his averaging to 132.2pts per game.
Anyone thinking they might have another look at their team with Dangerfield in it ??
More from the desk of the Mad Irishman:
The Premium Trap – the trap that the novices fall for when picking their Premium players.
The Durability Factor – just how many games is your gun midfielder good for?
The Collingwood Conundrum – which Collingwood Super Elite Midfielders will dominate in 2013?
Gary Ablett – Why he is the little master of Supercoach and AFL Fantasy 2013
Jock P Kennedy – worth a look in?
Jobe Watson – due for a Brownlow hangover (…among other things…)