add_filter('comment_flood_filter', '__return_false');

Jobe Watson – due for a Supercoach Brownlow hangover?

Published by Jock on

Jobe Watson AFL Fantasy 2013

Jobe Watson. Essendon Captain, Essendon Best and Fairest winner, Brownlow medalist and top bloke.

The only thing I don’t like about that statement is the “Essendon” part. That’s more to do with where my loyalties lie than anything of relevance to the fantasy community.

But don’t worry I won’t let my dislike for the Essendon Football club distract me from my unbiased approach of analysing the best players from last season and Jobe Waston is the final player in the group of 6 that finished 2012 with Super Elite Status.

Jobe in 2012

Jobe had somewhat of a breakout season in 2012 increasing his average by 15 Supercoach points from 106 points in 2011 to 121 points in 2012. Now taking that on the figures alone you would say that was a full breakout season, however I say “somewhat of a breakout” because he had be threatening for the previous two years to take his game to the next level but was restricted by soft tissue injuries that appeared to strike as soon as he was finding his stride.

If you had taken the four games in the middle of the season in 2011 where Jobe had come back from a slight hamstring tear only to damage it again he would have actually averaged 115.8 points in 2011 and that was after seeing out the last 5 games not fully fit. After seeing that he had a good preseason with no problems I was happy to lock him in as my M3 (3rd midfielder) at his discounted price last season and he didn’t let me down (Unlike a few others I might add). 

Looking at his stats he averaged 15.6 kicks, 13.4 handballs, 0.9 goals and 4.8 tackles a game. A lot like the other Super Elite players Watson excelled in the contested possession department. He was ranked number four in contested possessions per game and number four in clearances per game and considering how so many of his possessions were contested he had a very respectable disposal efficiency ranked 13th in effective disposal in the competition last season. So let’s have a quick recap of his scoring in 2012.

Jobe Wastson last season

2012 under the microscope

  • From a score point of view Jobe was a measure of consistency and was a very reliable scorer, only dropping below 100 points in 4 games with a lowest score of 73 coming in round 22 when he knew Essendon’s final hopes had died (broad smile). 
  • On the other side of the coin he had 9 games where he scored above 130 with a top score of 156. However if we have a closer look at his scores there is one element of inconsistency that on the face of it might not necessarily be a bad thing going into 2013. 
  • His average in a winning team was 125.6 points a game where his average in a losing team was 116.3 points – 9.33 points lower. So how might this be a good thing going forward ?? Well even though my heart wants me to believe Essendon will continue their woeful run of just three wins from their last 13 games of last season (face is hurting from me smiling now), my head is telling me a very different story where Essendon could be looking at a win lose record somewhere from 13-9 to 15-7 next year. 
  • If you apply the very simplified approach that Jobe’s averages in a winning and losing team will remain the same in 2013 that would put his projected average for next year at approx 123 points. Of course that’s a very simplified approach that takes no other contributing factors into consideration and there are other contributing factors, the first being a Higher Profile.

A marked man in 2013?

This may sound ridiculous but as the reigning Brownlow medalist  Jobe Watson will go into season 2013 with a higher than usual profile and will become somewhat of a marked man. If you follow the trends set by the previous 8 Brownlow medalists then you can expect Jobe’s average to drop in the coming season. The table below shows the previous 8 Brownlow medalists  their average in the year they won the medal, their scores and running averages in the first 5 rounds of the following season and their final average for the following season.

Supercoach points after the brownlow

The dreaded Brownlow Hangover effect

  • Remarkably last season Dane Swan became the first player to increase his average the year after winning a Brownlow medal. All the other years back to when Supercoach was created the player that won the Brownlow saw a decrease in his supercoach score the following year . 
  • Even more amazingly their average points scored dropped by an average of 11.6 points. 
  • I included the scores from the first 5 rounds of the next year to gauge an idea of how the player scored while handling the opposition’s new found focus on the reigning Brownlow medalist.  These are the rounds I believe the opposition will be most focused on stopping the Brownlow medalist  as he will still very much be talked about in the media before the next wave of Brownlow favorites spring up around round 7, and as its early in the season its easier for opposition to fixate on stopping a known high profile player, instead of the game plan of the opposition as there haven’t been too many games to analyse.
  • Apart from Gary Ablett in 2009 and Jimmy Bartel in 2007 every other year the reigning Brownlow medalist got off to a slow start averaging well below their previous season’s average after the first four rounds then played catch up for the rest of the year. 
  • This includes Dane Swan who was only averaging 105 after round four last year before he went bang in round 5 with a massive score of 180. 

Looking at Jobe in Supercoach and AFL Fantasy 2013

Essendon’s first four games are Round 1 v Adelaide (AAMI), Round 2 v Melbourne (MCG), Round 3 v Fremantle (PS) and Round 4 v St Kilda (ES). Even though Watson isn’t the most ideal player in the Essendon midfield to tag as he wins his own ball, and Essendon are less effective when the opposition shut down their outside run and carry I won’t be surprised to see the first tag going to Watson, for the first few rounds anyway. This might change when Stanton and to a lesser extent Goddard start tearing it up on the outside. This leads me nicely into my next point of focus, the Essendon list.

On the surface Essendon go into 2013 with a very strong list but the key for them will be keeping their best 22 on the park. In all honesty 2012 was a horror year for the bombers. Their pre-season saw them put on too much muscle too quickly and as a result the list grew thin as players dropped off with soft tissue injury after soft tissue injury as the season progressed.

..more competition for Supercoach points?

On the up side 2012 did see the continued improvement of youngsters Dyson Heppell, Ben Howlett, Heath Hocking and Jake Melksham, all who you would expect to improve more in 2013 and there could very well be an AFL Fantasy breakout contender in that group. The good news for the bombers in the off season was the pick-up of Brendon Goddard who I believe is a wonderful signing but not for the obvious reason that Goddard will be the game changer himself.

Essendon’s early form last season was sensational as was that of Brent Stanton and it was no coincident that the drop in Essendon’s form coincided with the drop off of Stanton’s effect on the game. Opposition simply realised if they shut down Stanton’s run and carry they were restricting Essendon’s most effective avenue to goal.

The guys at Bomber land know this too and with the addition of Goddard in the guts it should free Stanton up that little bit more and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see his SC average increase to the 110 mark. Goddard himself will also be a player scoring points that was not in the frame last year and even though some people are expecting Goddard to get back to his elite days at Saint Kilda (another debate) I can’t see him scoring less than 100 points per game.

Add this to the possible breakout year that some tip Heppell to have now that it looks like he will be part of the midfield next year and there are a lot of averages increasing at bomber land in 2013. Now you are probably sick of me telling you this at this stage but there is only 3300 points to be divided up in any given game and with all these players picking up points that they didn’t get last season.. this means somebody else isn’t going to be getting them this season. So where does this leave Jobe Watson ?? Well even though the bombers have some room regarding average supercoach and AFL Fantasy points with only Watson, Ryder and Stanton averaging over 100 points last year, with all these additional projected average increases to other players at Essendon I don’t see Jobe having much scope to improve his average and it may very well fall the other way.

The good news for Jobe and for Essendon is that even in their season from hell with soft tissue injuries, Jobe managed to get through unscathed, which was really good considering his past record with soft tissue injuries. This makes me think that they have nailed down Jobe’s training program and I would be confident that he will again have a very good durability factor in 2013 and play out the 22 rounds of the home and away season … and yes bombers supports probably finals too (smile has gone).

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

Even though I think Jobe will finish in the top 10 midfielders for 2013 and he will be a very solid pick for the reasons outlined above I just don’t see any scope for him to improve his average on last season. I feel there are better options in the same price bracket that offer better value for money and it is for that reason I won’t be selecting Jobe in my initial team in 2013. He is however someone I will look to get into my team and if I am correct in predicting a slow start to the season he could very well become my first upgrade.

Current Status: Super Elite
Starting price: $647,200
2012 Average: 121 Supercoach points
2012 Games Played: 22

2013 Predicted Status: Elite
2013 Predicted Average: 116 to 119 points
2013 Predicted Games: 22
Value Rating: 4.9 (average)

Final Word

Will finish in the top 10 midfielders but a predicted drop in average added to a predicted slow start means it way be wise to look elsewhere for starters in your initial teams. Definite upgrade target after round 6/7.

Stay tuned ….
Mick the Mad Irishman

Click here for all the juice on the best premiums in Supercoach and AFL Fantasy in 2013


Subscribe
Notify of
guest
85 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Rob

Great insight into the Brownlow hangover Mad Mick.
Jobe served me well last season, but will cross him off the list this year.

BlueBoy03

Excellent article.

@PeterHiggo

Can't help but feel a strong friendship forming here.
Thank you Mick, I thoroughly enjoyed this!

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Great stuff @PeterHiggo, glad you enjoyed this one .. have to say it was a fun article to research and write .. exciting when you discover a trend hidden in all those numbers

@MRB37

Great stuff as always, Mick.

Jobe won't be in my initial side, but I still reckon he's got a serious chance to maintain that Super Elite status and be a upgrade target later in the year.

dools

Why ? Why ? Why? Do you insist on publishing my private toughts Mick?
This has to stop mate…No More shared drinks in the Bar I talk you Listen and then Bang it's in Print LOL

Seriously Mick The curve of your reasoning requires a new SC scale. You have now pushed Higgo off the 3 Pt pedestal .GREAT great stuff Mate. Cudos to you and bye the bye Next round is on You!! Carlton Draught Stubby mate I deserve it…Hahahahah

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Great minds to think a like my good friend .. now to decide what thoughts to steal next 😉

Dylan

Goddard will run thru the middle and take the tag. Allowing to increase to 120

Supercoach jesus

You have no idea

@jock_reynolds

Cmon Supercoach jesus.. that's not the spirit old son 😉 Reckon you're namesake would have something a bit more constructive to kick around.
Dylan mate.. I reckon there is a good case for the fact that teams will put time and attention into Goddard.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Goddard is a very interesting proposition this year and there are many dynamics that we just don't until we see some footfall and the new look Essondon midfield is one I will be watching very closely during the NAB. At present I don't see Goddard as an out and out lock but much can change over the next 7 weeks. Lets wait and see shall we

Old Dylan

Dylan mate, you stole my forum name!

jimbotraralgon

great write up…..upgrade target for me.

can't have everyone in the starting 8!

TheBIGShot

Consensus on Jobe.. upgrade target for all, no start up. Late in the season 2012 he got huge attention with 3 guys going to him at every bounce and ball in. They didn't stop him cos he is the best but they slowed him down Mick. I must add though Mick your bias showed like an old ladies stained slip that had dropped below her sun dress. So gob smackingly apparent you couldn't look away and so grubby you felt like an upchuck.. :-C<<<<
Go bombers! lol

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Great stuff BIGShot – bombers will go all right this year – which just means I'll get to see them play one more game than they played last year 😉 sorry couldn't resist

So interested to hear your thoughts on the bombers for this year ?? you starting with Jobe or an upgrade target for you too ?? I assume you have Goddard locked away and maybe one of Stanton or Heppell ?? Any other smokies you feel worth a punt ??

TheBIGShot

definite for Jobe upgrade for me. Stants a no but hope he has a good season, a good team player. Hepps the lock for the backline. Hibberd and Pears might increase but hardly great bust out options. Maybe the big Bellchambers as is ready to click into the top echelon Mick. 🙂

@jock_reynolds

LOL.
reckon you're not far off the money at all there mate. He is hard to stop due to the contested stuff he does…

Vinnie

I'm a BOMBER and a Jobe fan from way back, yet this article is pretty spot on.
An away game in Rd 1 will ensure his season gets off to a slower start and will help his price to drop like a turd on New Years Day after a night on the grog

TheBIGShot

hey vinnie.. nah the article is spot on you're right, it was my chance for a free hit back at the "maddie Irishmen" that I enjoyed. 😉

chels

terrific stuff Mick, thank you. Delighted your turned out to be a stats man as well. Please do not say you are an economist!

You are assembling a fine team here Jock – big raps amigo.

Mikey mike

Two counter points to your very good article regarding the brownlow hangover. First of all Jobe’s win last year bucked the trend of players from the pointy end of the finals winning Charlie. All of the 5 previous winners of the brownlow have been members of very good sides surrounded by champion players. Something that Essendon isn’t and doesn’t have. Second point is that ever since Hirdy retired Jobe has become the star player in a group of midfielders that have been fairly weak talent wise as a bunch. Not sure how much more attention he can get seeing he has fairly much been a one man band in the previous 3 years.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Very good counter arguement Mikey mike, with the exception of Judd 2010 that's a good call in the Brownlow going to the guys at the top end of the ladder.
On the extra attention point and maybe i should have put it in anotherway. You are the number one tagger at your club and your given the job on the reigning Brownlow medalist in round one and then you are given the job on the guy who came third in round 2. Who do you think you will be more motivated to stop ??
So much of this beautiful game is physiological and the difference between winning and losing often comes down to the mental strength of the individual and not his footballing ability.
I know Jobe handles the tag extremely well but the difference is now his direct opponent has got that extra motivation to stop "the best guy in the comp", and he wants to walk off the field of play saying he stopped the the reigning browlow medalist from influencing the game

Dave Rudders

Excellent article…I reckon you make a great case for not starting Jobe…the boy is a superstar but I think I might I may just wait till round 6 or 7!!! Thanks for your insight Mick!!

Mikey mike

My apologies mick. When I saw the name Judd and brownlow I automatically thought back to the unstoppable force bursting away from the pack at break neck speeds in a royal blue and gold jumper. Not "that Brownlow" he won in a navy blue guernsey.
Ps. I like your name.

http://www.youtube.com/

The difference between the two is that if you don’t make an immediate
impact with the SEO visitors, you could be struggling to keep them returning
to your website, but you are likely to have more time
with the bloggers, since they tend to keep coming back to the blog.
Design-heavy sites don’t always leave much room
for on-page optimization, so it’s necessary to find the right balance.

Is that relevant to your business and getting potential customers to come to
your fish bait business.

seo examples

The business environment has changed and not too many fools rush
out to throw away their money into novel internet
ideas, but what is evident is that businesses need
to have an internet presence. Spill Under is when the people under you sponsor people making your business grow.
Search engine optimisation is the approach of employing methods that will have
an influence of your natural and organic lookup engine rankings.

cartomanzia di coppia

Hi to every one, it’s truly a pleasant for me to visit this
website, it consists of helpful Information.

search engine submission

The business will discuss with you the market that you wish to concentrate on

and your particular products and services. And you will normally start with requesting a great seo

offer from their website. Not to mention a good SEO should have excellent Sales and Marketing sense since SEO is not only about traffic but conversions and

profitability as well.

Lowell

Most companies and individuals adore their websites and they truly believe that for whatever purpose they have it put up will surely be achieved.

So far better your website ranks on the search

engine results page, the better are your chances of recouping online visibility and

improved business. Also known as Web references, a citation is defined as any appearance or ‘mentions’ of your business name alongside

its address or phone number preferably from trusted sites

in your industry or vertical even if there is no link

to your website.

seo services NZ

As a small or medium business owner, you may
want to advertise and promote your website as economically as possible.
Nothing helps a site more than strong content with keyword
rich text. You want these search engines to notice your work as the higher they
rank you in search results for your targeted keyword, the the more targeted
traffic you will receive to your site.

www.killarneydental.co.nz

In 2008 a study published in the Journal of the American Dental Association showed that Native Americans
had a higher than average rate in Wisconsin of seeking treatment at emergency
rooms and physician’s offices for non-traumatic
dental conditions. In fact, these practices should be there in your daily
“to do” list; especially if you have kids in the house.

It entails computerized treatment planning as a part of
Invisalign protocol.

solar power

A more simplistic approach is that taken by many households in
Greece, who use solar panels principally for heating up water.
One day, sooner than we may all think, we will be forced to find alternative sources of energy.

The cost of oil, coal, and natural gas are dictated directly by the law of supply
and demand.

real racing 3 triche android

3 billion $ per year sector as well as growing on a yearly basis.
The industry has just about a hundred and fifty, 000 persons in america alone.

It becomes secure to mention of which real racing 3 triche participate
in an important position within American economics
in addition to shouldn’t be assumed.

my page – real racing 3 triche android

click here

Consumption of aminoacids ought to be synchronized with just about every pound of body
mass we gain each day. Therefore it is really necessary so you
might find out Far east character types. Now
you can go to the most adjacent keep which you could invest in a German front door freezer or fridge.

melaza telecharger

I was suggested this blog by my cousin. I’m not sure whether this post is written

by him as nobody else know such detailed about my trouble.

You are wonderful! Thanks!

My weblog melaza telecharger

dodgem telecharger

Hello my family member! I want to say that this
article is amazing, great written and include approximately
all vital infos. I’d like to see extra posts like this .

Check out my webpage – dodgem telecharger

the face of love telecharger

Do you mind if I quote a few of your posts as long as I provide credit and
sources back to your blog? My blog is in the exact same area of interest as yours and my users would certainly benefit from a lot of the information you present here.
Please let me know if this ok with you. Thanks a lot!

Also visit my webpage … the face of love telecharger

Fatima

Never ever heard of a steam shower enclosure
up until I ran into this website, so happy I did so would like one now and funds permitting will likely be enjoying one
soon enough

After reading this article, if you are still unwilling to register your kid in a martial art school, you might possibly
want to give consideration to taking a class
with your kid to soothe any fears you might have.

Before he had a home, Shankly wandered the streets of London hungry and lost.

A wide receiver that played his college ball at USC, and was drafted
by the Dallas Cowboys in the fifth round of the 1995 NFL draft Hervey
came to the Eskimos in 1999.

my page – top eleven be a football manager download

Elton

Way cool! Some eextremely valid points! I appreciat you writing ths write-up plus the rest of the website is extremely good.

Feel free to surf to my site: annonces immobilieres (Elton)

To keep them clean, industrial-strength carpet cleaners are needed such as truck mount systems.
And for you to be able to provide this, ensuring first the safety of your carpet is one of the best things that
you could do. In fact, even an older child can, with proper supervision, pour
and mix the ingredients together.

My webpage :: platinum carpet cleaning atlanta

cost eye exam greenpoint

This may diminish your selection greatly so be prepared.
There is considerable training necessary to become an optometrist, although medical school is not required.
There are a lot of reasons a person might choose to undergo laser eye surgery.

my blog post … cost eye exam greenpoint

health

The radish, Raphanus sativus, belongs to the family Brassicaceae, may have white, red,
purple or black, long cylindrical or round shape.
It may be worth is still because it is so very simple.
Discussing comfort levels as a group can serve as a great team building activity.
The educators have to take health education strategies with the interventions and programs.
In 2008, 113,300 jobs were held by mental health counselors, according to the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. A condition is also pre-existing if a patient had signs of the condition prior to the
beginning of a policy. The third method is
a soak in a solution of sodium hypochlorite but
should be reserved for short term disinfection only. Today
organizations have been working over environmental measures to prevent the green house effect.
This involves creating artificial tunnels that often lead miles
beneath the surface of the earth. Some plans (not all) offer an extension of existing benefits for periods ranging from
18 to 36 months–however it is important to note that this is typically only available to those who are working for employers who have more than 20 employees.

Desmond

Superb, what a webpage it is! This webpage gives valuable data to us, keep it up.

Constance

I really love you for making that cabs orlando offer.
The company has already experienced growing pains in Shanghai.
Whatever Boss is right, it is also possible to end up with
us doing that stupid stuff that we did for Shane’s World was
more like a taxi to Wimbledon Village instead. Except that if we were to believe that I
know when a man named German Wilhelm Bruhn who first invented taximeter in 1891.

Feel free to visit my site – site (Constance)

wewantacup.com

It’s a pity you don’t have a donate button! I’d definitely donate to this outstanding blog!
I suppose for now i’ll settle for book-marking
and adding your RSS feed to my Google account.
I look forward to fresh updates and will share this blog with my Facebook group.
Talk soon!

Have a look at my web site elevate gf muscle enhancer (wewantacup.com)

toronto music

Thank you for the good writeup. It in truth used to be a leisure account it.
Look advanced to more added agreeable from you! By the
way, how can we be in contact?

My website … toronto music

check Credit Report

Weapons, Supplies, Logistic, Factories, Vehicles,
planes, Ships, Uniforms, Food Supplies we could go on as well as on but hopefully you’ve gotten the idea.

Alice Marlen is author of Free Credit Report No Fee.
When talking to the charged off company’s representative, negotiate in what it is possible to do to have the power over removed.

best Weight loss diet plan

I was wondering if you ever considered changing the structure of
your site? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say.
But maybe you could a little more in the
way of content so people could connect with it better.
Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1 or two pictures.

Maybe you could space it out better?

My page – best Weight loss diet plan

assistir copa do mundo

Hello my loved one! I wish to say that this post
is awesome, nice written and come with approximately all important infos.
I would like to see more posts like this .

the tao of badass

Thank you for every other informative web site.
The place else may just I get that type of info written in such an ideal method?
I’ve a mission that I am simply now operating on, and I’ve been at the
look out for such info.

Here is my page the tao of badass

cheap viagra

Nice weblog here! Also your site lots up fast! What host are you using?

Can I get your affiliate hyperlink on your host?

I desire my site loaded up as quickly as yours lol

When it comes to heartburn you probably have already read and tried dome of
the possible solutions, which range from simple dietary choices to prescription medications.
Other preventive measures include maintaining your weight, avoid alcoholic beverages, and did not wear tight fit clothing around the waist because all these factors can
cause acid reflux. The proven 5 step multi-dimensional Heartburn No more’ Success System.

Here is my homepage … apple cider vinegar for heartburn

Marie

4GHz Wireless Kit with 2 Spy Mini Cameras; find it at Amazon for around $61 bucks.

It really shouldn’t have caused such a big debate on it and censoring the cards for the North American version. They begin arguing, fighting and hurting each other’which really brings sex
to a halt.

sexy girls self shots

I am sure this post has touched all the internet viewers, its really really fastidious piece of

writing on building up new webpage.

Generally I do not read post on blogs, however I wish
to say that this write-up very pressured me to take a look at
and do so! Your writing style has been surprised me. Thank you, quite great article.

make your own banner

It is appropriate time to make a few plans for the
future and it is time to be happy. I’ve learn this put up and if I
could I desire to suggest you some interesting things or suggestions.
Maybe you could write subsequent articles referring to this article.
I desire to read more things approximately it!

For a wonderful response please jump over to this web-site – make your own banner

website design companies

I visited several blogs however the audio quality for audio songs current at this web
page is truly excellent.

For a wonderful informative review please have a look at this
amazing site – website design companies

seo companies

I visited many websites except the audio quality for audio songs existing at
this website is really superb.

For the best answer please check-out this blog … seo companies

financial advisor services

I loved as much as you’ll receive carried out right here. The sketch is tasteful, your authored material stylish.
nonetheless, you command get got an edginess over that you wish be delivering the following.

unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the same
nearly very often inside case you shield this increase.

Tinnitus Remedy Review

Since it appears tinnitus gets louder when in a silent room, leaving on radio static can allow proper sleep.

Suffering from tinnitus can cause depression and it’s easy
to see why. In reality there is a romantic relationship with jaw actions which is at eighty%
in the sample over.