Jobe Watson – due for a Supercoach Brownlow hangover?

Published by Jock on

Jobe Watson AFL Fantasy 2013

Jobe Watson. Essendon Captain, Essendon Best and Fairest winner, Brownlow medalist and top bloke.

The only thing I don’t like about that statement is the “Essendon” part. That’s more to do with where my loyalties lie than anything of relevance to the fantasy community.

But don’t worry I won’t let my dislike for the Essendon Football club distract me from my unbiased approach of analysing the best players from last season and Jobe Waston is the final player in the group of 6 that finished 2012 with Super Elite Status.

Jobe in 2012

Jobe had somewhat of a breakout season in 2012 increasing his average by 15 Supercoach points from 106 points in 2011 to 121 points in 2012. Now taking that on the figures alone you would say that was a full breakout season, however I say “somewhat of a breakout” because he had be threatening for the previous two years to take his game to the next level but was restricted by soft tissue injuries that appeared to strike as soon as he was finding his stride.

If you had taken the four games in the middle of the season in 2011 where Jobe had come back from a slight hamstring tear only to damage it again he would have actually averaged 115.8 points in 2011 and that was after seeing out the last 5 games not fully fit. After seeing that he had a good preseason with no problems I was happy to lock him in as my M3 (3rd midfielder) at his discounted price last season and he didn’t let me down (Unlike a few others I might add). 

Looking at his stats he averaged 15.6 kicks, 13.4 handballs, 0.9 goals and 4.8 tackles a game. A lot like the other Super Elite players Watson excelled in the contested possession department. He was ranked number four in contested possessions per game and number four in clearances per game and considering how so many of his possessions were contested he had a very respectable disposal efficiency ranked 13th in effective disposal in the competition last season. So let’s have a quick recap of his scoring in 2012.

Jobe Wastson last season

2012 under the microscope

  • From a score point of view Jobe was a measure of consistency and was a very reliable scorer, only dropping below 100 points in 4 games with a lowest score of 73 coming in round 22 when he knew Essendon’s final hopes had died (broad smile). 
  • On the other side of the coin he had 9 games where he scored above 130 with a top score of 156. However if we have a closer look at his scores there is one element of inconsistency that on the face of it might not necessarily be a bad thing going into 2013. 
  • His average in a winning team was 125.6 points a game where his average in a losing team was 116.3 points – 9.33 points lower. So how might this be a good thing going forward ?? Well even though my heart wants me to believe Essendon will continue their woeful run of just three wins from their last 13 games of last season (face is hurting from me smiling now), my head is telling me a very different story where Essendon could be looking at a win lose record somewhere from 13-9 to 15-7 next year. 
  • If you apply the very simplified approach that Jobe’s averages in a winning and losing team will remain the same in 2013 that would put his projected average for next year at approx 123 points. Of course that’s a very simplified approach that takes no other contributing factors into consideration and there are other contributing factors, the first being a Higher Profile.

A marked man in 2013?

This may sound ridiculous but as the reigning Brownlow medalist  Jobe Watson will go into season 2013 with a higher than usual profile and will become somewhat of a marked man. If you follow the trends set by the previous 8 Brownlow medalists then you can expect Jobe’s average to drop in the coming season. The table below shows the previous 8 Brownlow medalists  their average in the year they won the medal, their scores and running averages in the first 5 rounds of the following season and their final average for the following season.

Supercoach points after the brownlow

The dreaded Brownlow Hangover effect

  • Remarkably last season Dane Swan became the first player to increase his average the year after winning a Brownlow medal. All the other years back to when Supercoach was created the player that won the Brownlow saw a decrease in his supercoach score the following year . 
  • Even more amazingly their average points scored dropped by an average of 11.6 points. 
  • I included the scores from the first 5 rounds of the next year to gauge an idea of how the player scored while handling the opposition’s new found focus on the reigning Brownlow medalist.  These are the rounds I believe the opposition will be most focused on stopping the Brownlow medalist  as he will still very much be talked about in the media before the next wave of Brownlow favorites spring up around round 7, and as its early in the season its easier for opposition to fixate on stopping a known high profile player, instead of the game plan of the opposition as there haven’t been too many games to analyse.
  • Apart from Gary Ablett in 2009 and Jimmy Bartel in 2007 every other year the reigning Brownlow medalist got off to a slow start averaging well below their previous season’s average after the first four rounds then played catch up for the rest of the year. 
  • This includes Dane Swan who was only averaging 105 after round four last year before he went bang in round 5 with a massive score of 180. 

Looking at Jobe in Supercoach and AFL Fantasy 2013

Essendon’s first four games are Round 1 v Adelaide (AAMI), Round 2 v Melbourne (MCG), Round 3 v Fremantle (PS) and Round 4 v St Kilda (ES). Even though Watson isn’t the most ideal player in the Essendon midfield to tag as he wins his own ball, and Essendon are less effective when the opposition shut down their outside run and carry I won’t be surprised to see the first tag going to Watson, for the first few rounds anyway. This might change when Stanton and to a lesser extent Goddard start tearing it up on the outside. This leads me nicely into my next point of focus, the Essendon list.

On the surface Essendon go into 2013 with a very strong list but the key for them will be keeping their best 22 on the park. In all honesty 2012 was a horror year for the bombers. Their pre-season saw them put on too much muscle too quickly and as a result the list grew thin as players dropped off with soft tissue injury after soft tissue injury as the season progressed.

..more competition for Supercoach points?

On the up side 2012 did see the continued improvement of youngsters Dyson Heppell, Ben Howlett, Heath Hocking and Jake Melksham, all who you would expect to improve more in 2013 and there could very well be an AFL Fantasy breakout contender in that group. The good news for the bombers in the off season was the pick-up of Brendon Goddard who I believe is a wonderful signing but not for the obvious reason that Goddard will be the game changer himself.

Essendon’s early form last season was sensational as was that of Brent Stanton and it was no coincident that the drop in Essendon’s form coincided with the drop off of Stanton’s effect on the game. Opposition simply realised if they shut down Stanton’s run and carry they were restricting Essendon’s most effective avenue to goal.

The guys at Bomber land know this too and with the addition of Goddard in the guts it should free Stanton up that little bit more and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see his SC average increase to the 110 mark. Goddard himself will also be a player scoring points that was not in the frame last year and even though some people are expecting Goddard to get back to his elite days at Saint Kilda (another debate) I can’t see him scoring less than 100 points per game.

Add this to the possible breakout year that some tip Heppell to have now that it looks like he will be part of the midfield next year and there are a lot of averages increasing at bomber land in 2013. Now you are probably sick of me telling you this at this stage but there is only 3300 points to be divided up in any given game and with all these players picking up points that they didn’t get last season.. this means somebody else isn’t going to be getting them this season. So where does this leave Jobe Watson ?? Well even though the bombers have some room regarding average supercoach and AFL Fantasy points with only Watson, Ryder and Stanton averaging over 100 points last year, with all these additional projected average increases to other players at Essendon I don’t see Jobe having much scope to improve his average and it may very well fall the other way.

The good news for Jobe and for Essendon is that even in their season from hell with soft tissue injuries, Jobe managed to get through unscathed, which was really good considering his past record with soft tissue injuries. This makes me think that they have nailed down Jobe’s training program and I would be confident that he will again have a very good durability factor in 2013 and play out the 22 rounds of the home and away season … and yes bombers supports probably finals too (smile has gone).

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

Even though I think Jobe will finish in the top 10 midfielders for 2013 and he will be a very solid pick for the reasons outlined above I just don’t see any scope for him to improve his average on last season. I feel there are better options in the same price bracket that offer better value for money and it is for that reason I won’t be selecting Jobe in my initial team in 2013. He is however someone I will look to get into my team and if I am correct in predicting a slow start to the season he could very well become my first upgrade.

Current Status: Super Elite
Starting price: $647,200
2012 Average: 121 Supercoach points
2012 Games Played: 22

2013 Predicted Status: Elite
2013 Predicted Average: 116 to 119 points
2013 Predicted Games: 22
Value Rating: 4.9 (average)

Final Word

Will finish in the top 10 midfielders but a predicted drop in average added to a predicted slow start means it way be wise to look elsewhere for starters in your initial teams. Definite upgrade target after round 6/7.

Stay tuned ….
Mick the Mad Irishman

Click here for all the juice on the best premiums in Supercoach and AFL Fantasy in 2013


Rob · 29/01/2013 at 14:52

Great insight into the Brownlow hangover Mad Mick.
Jobe served me well last season, but will cross him off the list this year.

BlueBoy03 · 29/01/2013 at 16:30

Excellent article.

@PeterHiggo · 29/01/2013 at 17:29

Can't help but feel a strong friendship forming here.
Thank you Mick, I thoroughly enjoyed this!

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 29/01/2013 at 21:15

    Great stuff @PeterHiggo, glad you enjoyed this one .. have to say it was a fun article to research and write .. exciting when you discover a trend hidden in all those numbers

@MRB37 · 29/01/2013 at 18:32

Great stuff as always, Mick.

Jobe won't be in my initial side, but I still reckon he's got a serious chance to maintain that Super Elite status and be a upgrade target later in the year.

dools · 29/01/2013 at 18:42

Why ? Why ? Why? Do you insist on publishing my private toughts Mick?
This has to stop mate…No More shared drinks in the Bar I talk you Listen and then Bang it's in Print LOL

Seriously Mick The curve of your reasoning requires a new SC scale. You have now pushed Higgo off the 3 Pt pedestal .GREAT great stuff Mate. Cudos to you and bye the bye Next round is on You!! Carlton Draught Stubby mate I deserve it…Hahahahah

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 29/01/2013 at 21:09

    Great minds to think a like my good friend .. now to decide what thoughts to steal next 😉

Dylan · 29/01/2013 at 22:15

Goddard will run thru the middle and take the tag. Allowing to increase to 120

    Supercoach jesus · 30/01/2013 at 00:42

    You have no idea

      @jock_reynolds · 30/01/2013 at 12:06

      Cmon Supercoach jesus.. that's not the spirit old son 😉 Reckon you're namesake would have something a bit more constructive to kick around.
      Dylan mate.. I reckon there is a good case for the fact that teams will put time and attention into Goddard.

        @Da_Mad_Irishman · 30/01/2013 at 12:40

        Goddard is a very interesting proposition this year and there are many dynamics that we just don't until we see some footfall and the new look Essondon midfield is one I will be watching very closely during the NAB. At present I don't see Goddard as an out and out lock but much can change over the next 7 weeks. Lets wait and see shall we

    Old Dylan · 09/02/2013 at 08:50

    Dylan mate, you stole my forum name!

jimbotraralgon · 29/01/2013 at 22:41

great write up…..upgrade target for me.

can't have everyone in the starting 8!

    jockreynolds · 29/01/2013 at 23:02

    Hell of an article indeed. Have the feeling that he is mature enough to hit the ground running without any inflated sense of self worth which may have had a bit to do with some brownlow winners dropping off the year after.. another reason could have been due to to the general whole team syndrome of being on a bit of a downer after a premiership…
    Having said all that… I reckon stanton, goddard, heppell, these blokes will start taking more pill this season.. and too many unknowns at the bombers…

TheBIGShot · 29/01/2013 at 23:22

Consensus on Jobe.. upgrade target for all, no start up. Late in the season 2012 he got huge attention with 3 guys going to him at every bounce and ball in. They didn't stop him cos he is the best but they slowed him down Mick. I must add though Mick your bias showed like an old ladies stained slip that had dropped below her sun dress. So gob smackingly apparent you couldn't look away and so grubby you felt like an upchuck.. :-C<<<<
Go bombers! lol

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 29/01/2013 at 23:39

    Great stuff BIGShot – bombers will go all right this year – which just means I'll get to see them play one more game than they played last year 😉 sorry couldn't resist

    So interested to hear your thoughts on the bombers for this year ?? you starting with Jobe or an upgrade target for you too ?? I assume you have Goddard locked away and maybe one of Stanton or Heppell ?? Any other smokies you feel worth a punt ??

      TheBIGShot · 31/01/2013 at 23:46

      definite for Jobe upgrade for me. Stants a no but hope he has a good season, a good team player. Hepps the lock for the backline. Hibberd and Pears might increase but hardly great bust out options. Maybe the big Bellchambers as is ready to click into the top echelon Mick. 🙂

    @jock_reynolds · 30/01/2013 at 12:04

    reckon you're not far off the money at all there mate. He is hard to stop due to the contested stuff he does…

Vinnie · 30/01/2013 at 00:05

I'm a BOMBER and a Jobe fan from way back, yet this article is pretty spot on.
An away game in Rd 1 will ensure his season gets off to a slower start and will help his price to drop like a turd on New Years Day after a night on the grog

    TheBIGShot · 31/01/2013 at 23:48

    hey vinnie.. nah the article is spot on you're right, it was my chance for a free hit back at the "maddie Irishmen" that I enjoyed. 😉

chels · 30/01/2013 at 07:04

terrific stuff Mick, thank you. Delighted your turned out to be a stats man as well. Please do not say you are an economist!

You are assembling a fine team here Jock – big raps amigo.

Mikey mike · 30/01/2013 at 09:14

Two counter points to your very good article regarding the brownlow hangover. First of all Jobe’s win last year bucked the trend of players from the pointy end of the finals winning Charlie. All of the 5 previous winners of the brownlow have been members of very good sides surrounded by champion players. Something that Essendon isn’t and doesn’t have. Second point is that ever since Hirdy retired Jobe has become the star player in a group of midfielders that have been fairly weak talent wise as a bunch. Not sure how much more attention he can get seeing he has fairly much been a one man band in the previous 3 years.

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 30/01/2013 at 13:01

    Very good counter arguement Mikey mike, with the exception of Judd 2010 that's a good call in the Brownlow going to the guys at the top end of the ladder.
    On the extra attention point and maybe i should have put it in anotherway. You are the number one tagger at your club and your given the job on the reigning Brownlow medalist in round one and then you are given the job on the guy who came third in round 2. Who do you think you will be more motivated to stop ??
    So much of this beautiful game is physiological and the difference between winning and losing often comes down to the mental strength of the individual and not his footballing ability.
    I know Jobe handles the tag extremely well but the difference is now his direct opponent has got that extra motivation to stop "the best guy in the comp", and he wants to walk off the field of play saying he stopped the the reigning browlow medalist from influencing the game

Dave Rudders · 30/01/2013 at 11:07

Excellent article…I reckon you make a great case for not starting Jobe…the boy is a superstar but I think I might I may just wait till round 6 or 7!!! Thanks for your insight Mick!!

Mikey mike · 31/01/2013 at 10:20

My apologies mick. When I saw the name Judd and brownlow I automatically thought back to the unstoppable force bursting away from the pack at break neck speeds in a royal blue and gold jumper. Not "that Brownlow" he won in a navy blue guernsey.
Ps. I like your name.

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