The Durability Factor – Mick the Mad Irishman
Last week we looked at the seven categories of player that I think better represents what is happening within the game and will better help us coaches when selecting our initial teams. Click here for a quick recap
Now the easy thing to assume is that all the players in the top two categories of the Elite and Super Elite Premiums are all viable options and there is not going to be much difference between any of them, both in point scoring and the all-important initial value for money. However as in all walks of life, sometimes things are not always what they seem to be.
Just ask Higgo about his trip to Thailand in the off season and he will tell you firsthand how deceiving things can really be. But fret not community… The Mad Irishman is here to help you sort all those pretenders from the real deal. If Higgo had only asked me to come to Thailand with him he might not have ended up getting bitten by the trouser snake.
Super Elite Premiums – to have and to hold in sickness and in health
When we pick our initial Elite and Super Elite premiums we are picking our keepers, the guys that we will have with us for each round all the way through to our grand finals in August. Take a Midfield form last season for example and say you started the year with four players with the elite or super elite status. So in Theory your M1, M2, M3 and M4 positions should be locked for the year and if you’re a serious coach you would be looking for these positions to average 110+ for the year.
But what happens if one of these players get injured or is rested for a round ?? No coaches will have a premium on the bench to replace them so we tend to put on a rookie to fill in for that week. Most coaches won’t look at that in this way.. but what is really happening is – because you have to replace a premium with a rookie for that week your average for that position has been reduced.
Take for example these two players: Shane Tuck and Dane Swan. Straight up whom would you rather have in your team ?? Most people reading this article will be, ummm Dane Swan every time … but let’s look a little closer shall we. If one coach selected Dane Swan as their M2 and another selected Shane Tuck as their M2 and they both didn’t waste any trades by sideways trading their M2 position both coaches would have come out with a very similar average for that M2 spot in their team even though Dane Swans average for the year was over 10pts greater than Shane Tucks.
The key here being that Tuck played all 22 games in the year for 2522 points, whereas Swan only played 18 games for 2272 points. Even if you have got a decent rookie as bench cover for Swan when he was out, that has averaged 70 points a game, the coach that selected Swan would have only scored 2552 points for their M2 spot. An average of 116 points per game. Considering that Tuck started the year a whole lot cheaper than Swan the coach that selected Tuck would have got a lot better value for money for his M2 spot.
Of the 23 players that finished with Elite or Super Elite Status last season amazingly only 10 of those players played all 22 rounds. So if we apply the same reasoning as I did with the Swan vs Tuck argument above a lot of those players’ averages will be inflated and you might not be getting best value for money in your initial teams for 2013 if you select some of the more regular absentees.
Obviously any player can get injured, that is just part of the game and every coach will need that little bit of luck to have all your players stay on the park for the whole year. However there are some players that are more susceptible to injury or a rest break and those are the players you really shouldn’t be taking a chance on. Value for money is very important and “The Durability Factor” shouldn’t be ignored when selecting you initial team.
Below is a revised table of the Super Elite and Elite Premiums showing their revised averages from last season once you take into account the games they have missed and adding a rookie score of 70 points in those games. The price in red shows what the player would cost for that revised average and potentially give you a better gauge on a players “Value for Money”
Of course this table is a reflection of just last season and you can’t for example assume that Marc Murphy will miss 6 games again this season. However it should give you an understanding of how important it is to pick players that are likely to play all 22 rounds and thus give you the best value for money when selecting your initial team.
In the coming weeks I will be looking at each of the players with Super Elite and Elite Status in a lot more detail and will outline who I expect to miss games due to injury or who is likely to be rested. Stay tuned….
Mick the Mad Irishman