Jock’s AFL Fantasy Market – Rd17 Specials
Don’t know bout you folks – but I haven’t come this far down the garden path this season just to stumble into the back end of this season with anything other than LASER SHARP BLOODY FOCUS. Do whatever it takes. Analyse your team till you can’t analyse the bastard any longer. Question all your selections this week. Then have a cold bloody ice bath and come back and question them again with a fresh mind.
The journey of many steps starts with one step my friends. Do your homework – make sure you’ve had a listen to the Round 17 podcast and send a resounding message to your Supercoach and Dreamteam opponents this week.
I’m Jock Reynolds. These are my specials for the week;
* also now published: – Jock’s post team selection Youtube Video
THIS WEEKS BACKS
Special of the Week:Grant Birchall – Hawthorn $493,000 | Avg 97 | breakeven 87 Next 3: COL, ESS, GEE Finals Opponents: PTA, GCS, SYD, WCE
Have a gander at his recent form and the first 2 weeks of his finals. I’ll be having a real good hard think about the Birch this weekend folks. One downer is that his next 3 opponents are stiff – you may well pick him up for a similar price in a week or 2. Has averaged 109 since the Hawks bye – a real consideration for all serious coaches this weekHeath Shaw – Collingwood $501,000 | Avg 106| breakeven 60 Next 3: HAW, GWS, STK Finals: SYD, NTH, WCE, ESS
135 this past week and looked the goods. Building again after his injury and bye related absence between rounds 10 and 12. Some would question Collingwood’s Fantasy Footy Finals draw in which they play Sydney (Supercoach and Dreamteam Sourpusses) in the first round of finals. Not concerned about this in young Heath’s case – he averages over 100 v the Swannies. Hawks, GWS then St Kilda in the lead in to the finals. Buy.Chris Yarran – Carlton $342,400 | Avg 66 | breakeven 15 Next 3: WBD, RICH, SYD Finals opponents: BRL, ESS, GCS, STK
Even Myrtle from the Salvos has locked Chris Yarran into her line-up over the last couple of weeks and she’s not far off looney bin status in terms of her mental capacity. However – many have had other priorities and may not have tucked Yarran away during the last 2-3 weeks where he has been bloody cheap. Believe that this will be the last week that Yarran will provide value enough to justify a spot in a serious fantasy footy lineup. Still not completely convinced that he will come home scoring 110+ totals as will be targeted heavily by opposition after his Collingwood night out. Still value here.Andrew Carrazzo – Carlton (also MID) $485,800 | Avg 99 | breakeven 71 Next 3: WBD, RICH, SYD Finals opponents: BRL, ESS, GCS, STK
Was again beautiful in his 29 disposal 118 game against a strong North Melbourne outfit last weekend. Many would already have invested. If you haven’t jumped on the SS Carrazzo yet it is not too late. Reasonable finals draw. One word of warning – he doesn’t tend to perform as well against this week’s opponents the Western Bulldogs… however this seasons Bulldogs are a different kettle of fish compared to the dos of the past few years.Mark Baguley – Essendon (also MID) $94,700 | 79 in first game Next 3: GEE, HAW, ADE Finals: NTH, CAR, RIC, COL
Looked really bloody good first up for the Hird’s mob. Had the pill 20 times and disposed of the thing with 80% efficiency. A 25 year old mature ager who may have real hope of clutching onto his position if he can maintain that standard. Averaged 22 disposals running out of the backline for the Frankston Dolphins last year and the transition to the big time seems no big stretch for the kid. One of the better trade down targets this week, can be used in your defence or in the guts. Watch the teams on Thursday.
A big rap for young Luke – a great kid and has displayed great character this season. Was the victim of an unprovoked nightclub attack during the preseason which derailed his preseason. No doubt tested the character of the young man. What warms the heart of this old veteran of the fantasy footy caper is seeing young men rise against adversity and come out the other end more equipped as a man. Good luck Lukey. Believe that Luke is a better player than Baguley – but feel Brown’s job security is not as sound, although word is that Sam Shaw will miss which may increase Brown’s chances this week. Consider – but leaning towards Baguley at this stage. Watch the teams kids.
- Sam Fisher was bloody awful last week with a paltry Supercoach 25. I haven’t given up on you though Chips. At just $380,700 with a high breakeven of 121 I will be watching you this week like a bloody HAWK mate, especially with Melbourne in week 1 and GWS in week 3 of the finals.
- I assume you all have GODDARD and DELEDIO – if you don’t for Christ’s sake lock em in
- Johnson, Suckling, Broughton, Duffield – NOT HAPPY. If you have em just hold onto them and wait for the form to turn
- SAM SHAW will be OUT this week with an eye injury. Judd has been ruled out as a suspect in the case. Bodes well for another week for Lukey Brown.
THIS WEEKS MIDFIELDERS
Special of the Week:Nick Dal Santo $484,900 | Avg 102 | breakeven 116 Next 3: SYD, WBD, COL Finals opponents: MEL, GEE, GWS, CAR
Fair suck of the slips cordon, this is a bloody good price for Nicky Dal. Some may question picking him up before a clash with Sydney but he averages 102 against the Swannies and will be expecting him to lift this week. Is working on his inside work every week and I expect him to come home very strongly. Melbourne for the crucial first finals clash and GWS in week 3. Just too much value here to ignore my friends.Sam Mitchell – Hawthorn $590,300 | Avg 115 | breakeven 95 Next 3: COL, ESS, GEE Finals Opponents: PTA, GCS, SYD, WCE
One of the pricier options to have been gifted a berth in the Cattle Market but truly believe that pound for pound is amongst the best trade in options of the week. Lists for the big games which should see him perform well over the next few weeks – but loves to really slut it up against the also runs. Should be prolific against Port Adelaide Power and Gold Coast in the first few weeks of the finals. Last 6 scores? 158, 108, 129, 124, 116, 133. Hard not to register significant trouser activity at this opportunity.Scott Thompson – Adelaide $551,300 | Avg 118 | breakeven 77 Next 3: WCE, GEE, ESS Finals opponents: FRE, BL, MEL, GCS
118, 143, 100, 102, 126 in his last 5 and has been magnificent for the Croweaters. It gets better – he averages 114 against the Eagles and plays them this week, then 110 and 140 respectively against Geelong and Essensdon. Dream Finals run especially in the last 2 weeks. Buy.Bernie Vince – Adelaide $436,200 | Avg 84 | breakeven -9 Next 3: WCE, GEE, ESS Finals opponents: FRE, BL, MEL, GCS
Cut loose against the Power and Giants over the last 2 with 124 and 152 perceptively. Sure – opposition was not exactly red hot but is just the medicine that a confidence player such as Bernard needs to kick him into late season gear. Love Adelaide players this season due to the form of the team but also their cherry ripe finals run. Could be a real finals specialist here and a point of difference for those coaches looking for that edge. High risk here – but fair possibility of significant reward. Respect for the man was solidified when news trickled through in preseason that he was caught sculling beer in his local cricket club with pants down. Impressed.
Showed some good signs as well as an exceptionally maintained buoyant mane obviously washed very recently before the game. Watch the teams here – prefer Baguley or Brown before him but certainly one to keep an eye on over the coming weeks. Job security not fantastic.
- I’d prefer to wait a week before considering MARC MURPHY. Should cop plenty of attention without Steggles Judd in the fold, and may also have come up sore after his first game back. High break even so his price will hold or drop.
- BRYCE GIBBS. His fantasy football potential is dead to me folks. Unless he forcibly dislodges his finger soon I would not consider bringing him in. Hold him though if you have him already. Commiserations.
THIS WEEKS RUCKS
Special of the week:Big Ben McEvoy – The Might Of The St Kilda Football Club $525,000 | Avg 104 | breakeven 69 Next 3: SYD, WBD, COL Finals opponents: MEL, GEE, GWS, CAR
The number 9 pick in the 2007 draft has come of age and this old bastard is happy as a pig in filth. The boy from Dederang-Mt Beauty has worked his way into fine form after returning from injury with 145, 108 and 130 over his last 3. Lovely run home and would not be surprised at all if he is the highest averaging ruckman for the remainder of the season.Sam Jacobs – Adelaide $534,100 | Avg 102 | breakeven 43 Next 3: WCE, GEE, ESS Finals opponents: FRE, BL, MEL, GCS
A real revelation for the Crows this season. Wary that his last 2 have been against poor opposition (GWS and Port) and that teams will be putting some serious homework into him now. Nice finals run however and one of the best in the business at the minute.
Has been solid enough in his first 2 but job security not flash. Reasonable trade down option if you were planning on ruck scull doggery this week otherwise pass.
THIS WEEKS FORWARDS
Specials of the weekTravis Cloke – Collingwood $369,200 | Avg 82 | breakeven 105 Next 3: HAW, GWS, STK Finals opponents: SYD, NTH, WCE, ESS
Yes folks. Travis Cloke. I will walk the streets of the greater Franskton area wearing Higgo’s mothers bloomers over my head if he does not prove his worth for the remainder of the season. Champion Fantasy Footballers identify low points in a players form cycle and go BANG. Grab him this week… he’ll have GWS the week after to solidate his form and happy days for the rest of the season.Ryan O’Keefe – Sydney (also MID) $526,700 | Avg 96 | breakeven 90 Next 3: STK, GCS, CAR Finals: COL, WBD, HAW, GEE
The Sydney team in my opinion are the best player managers in the business, and the timing of the ageing Ryan O’Keefe’s fitness schedule this season has been exceptional. I advised Horse Longmuire while surfing in Bondi together during the offseason to put Ryan on ice early doors this season and the results are really bearing fruit now into the end of the season with a climaxing O’Keefe. Revelling in the reduced attention with Goodes back in town and a real quality selection. Still not too late at this price – but I’d go Goodes before him if you don’t have either.Jordan Lewis – Hawthorn (also MID) $479,400 | Avg 99 | breakeven 59 Next 3: COL, ESS, GEE Finals Opponents: PTA, GCS, SYD, WCE
Has averaged 112 since his return in round 14 and looks a real option in your forward line. Port and GCS in first 2 weeks of the finals. Yes here. Upon consideration I’d almost go him before O’Keefe looking at his finals gig.Adam Goodes – Syd (also MID) $457,900 | Avg 94 | breakeven 57 Next 3: STK, GCS, CAR Finals: COL, WBD, HAW, GEE
Buy if you don’t have him.
Super impressive in his 110 over the weekend and seems to be on Ross the Boss’ good side. Coming off scores of 110 v Melbourne and 139 v Western Bulldogs. Licking his chops at the prospect of GWS and Port over the next 2 weeks. Melbourne in the last week of finals – consider.. a penny may well have dropped here.