I have resisted the temptation to tweak The Machine given its recent run of poor game modelling. By adjusting my formula with a Supercoach Team Average factor I have noticed that the last few weeks would have yielded more favorable outcomes.
However, I owe it to The Machine to see this through. It is still only slightly down on average game errors and still slightly up in terms of profit. I ask you all to be patient and of course, get ready for The Machine’s beautiful offspring to be launched Round 1, 2013.
Table 1 – Last Weeks Summary;
|Round 14||Winner||Margin||Machine Error||Sportsbet Error|
|Carlton V Hawks||Hawks||50||40||26.5|
|C’Wood V Freo||C’Wood||29||2||9.5|
|Adel. V Tigers||Adelaide||19||23||2.5|
|WCE V G.Coast||WCE||126||64||56.5|
|Sydney V GWS||Sydney||94||42||24.5|
|Ess. V Doggies||Essend.||84||46||54.5|
|Geelong V Port||Geelong||38||15||11.5|
|Brisbane V Demons||Brisbane||61||49||42.5|
|Saints V North||North||33||73||67|
Table 2 – The Machine’s Weekly Record;
|Ave. Game Error||Line Bet Record|
|The Machine||Sporstbet||No. Bets||Wins||Profit/Loss|
And now for the all important predictions for Round 15;
|Round 15||Machine Winner||Machine Margin||Sportsbet Line||Difference||Machine’s Bet||Stake|
|C’Wood V Carlton||C’Wood||47||29.5||17.5||Back PIES at the line||$5|
|North V WCE||WCE||31||15.5||15.5||Back WCE at the line||$5|
|Melb. V Tigers||Tigers||52||34.5||17.5||Back TIGERS at the line||$5|
|Sydney V Brisbane||Sydney||25||31.5||6.5||No bet|
|St.Kilda V Essend.||Essendon||14||20.5||6.5||No bet|
|Port. V Adelaide||Adelaide||22||25.5||3.5||No bet||$5|
|Hawks V GWS||Hawks||68||90.5||22.5||Back GWS at the line||$5|
|G.Coast V Geelong||Geelong||69||56.5||12.5||Back CATS at the line||$5|
|Freo. V Doggies||Freo.||34||32.5||1.5||No bet|
This week will challenge The Machine as my initial feel is that most of Sportsbet’s lines are well set. To make things interesting for you, the reader of this post, I am proposing a side-bet;
If The Machine gets beaten again this week, I will release some of my spreadsheets on this post that help me formulate these margins!
This will be fun.
Yours in numeric faith,