The Machine took a serious beating in Round 13. So bad was the beating that it is now getting done by the overall Sportsbet line by 0.68 points per game.
Will it respond to its beating like North did last week? The beauty of this betting system is that, unlike North, it does not have feelings. It plays the game each week in precisely the same robotic manner – a manner pre-determined by my Supercoach team value comparison formula.
Some Round 13 output statistics;
|Round 13||Winner||Margin||Machine Error||Sportsbet Error|
|Syd. V Geelong||Sydney||6||16||2.5|
|Dogs V Brisbane||Brisbane||58||79||77.5|
|C’Wood V WCE||C’wood||3||15||11.5|
|Freo V Ess.||Essendon||24||36||19.5|
|Melb. V GWS||Melbourne||78||70||55.5|
|North V Adel.||North||32||70||52.5|
|Average Game Error||47.7||36.5|
And the overall 7 Week summary table;
|Ave. Game Error||Line Bet Record|
|The Machine||Sporstbet||No. Bets||Wins||Profit/Loss|
While I am still profiting from The Machine overall, my real interest lies in the line predicting accuracy of the model. So can The Machine respond more positively this week? Or will Sportsbet deliver another fatal blow.
Here is its Round 14 forecasting;
|Round 14||Machine Winner||Machine Margin||Sportsbet Line||Difference||Machine’s Bet||Stake|
|Carlton V Hawks||Hawks||10||23.5||13.5||Back BLUES at the line||$5|
|C’Wood V Freo||C’Wood||31||38.5||7.5||No bet|
|Adel. V Tigers||Tigers||4||Ade(16.5)||20.5||Back TIGERS at the line||$5|
|WCE V G.Coast||WCE||62||69.5||7.5||No bet|
|Sydney V GWS||Sydney||52||67.5||15.5||Back GWS at the line||$5|
|Ess. V Doggies||Essendon||38||29.5||8.5||No bet|
|Geelong V Port||Geelong||23||49.5||26.5||Back PORT at the line||$5|
|Brisbane V Demons||Brisbane||12||18.5||6.5||No bet|
|Saints V North||Saints||34||18.5||15.5||Back SAINTS at the line||$5|
If I was to bring emotion into my analysis of The Machine’s output this week I would may say;
“Not bloody Port again!” or “Has Crouching been fiddling with this! Not sure about a Richmond win in Adelaide.” and maybe even, “Didn’t GWS drop their bundle last week? Surely Sydney will destroy this line?’
All of these statements are based on my instinctive feel. I think I would rather trust in an analytical process – The Machine. And if at season’s end it is beaten by Sportsbet, I will be spending my summer break with my one and only true love, EXCEL, building a better model(Lies! I have already started).
Yours in numeric faith,