The Machine took a serious beating in Round 13. So bad was the beating that it is now getting done by the overall Sportsbet line by 0.68 points per game.
Will it respond to its beating like North did last week? The beauty of this betting system is that, unlike North, it does not have feelings. It plays the game each week in precisely the same robotic manner – a manner pre-determined by my Supercoach team value comparison formula.
Some Round 13 output statistics;
| Round 13 | Winner | Margin | Machine Error | Sportsbet Error |
| Syd. V Geelong | Sydney | 6 | 16 | 2.5 |
| Dogs V Brisbane | Brisbane | 58 | 79 | 77.5 |
| C’Wood V WCE | C’wood | 3 | 15 | 11.5 |
| Freo V Ess. | Essendon | 24 | 36 | 19.5 |
| Melb. V GWS | Melbourne | 78 | 70 | 55.5 |
| North V Adel. | North | 32 | 70 | 52.5 |
| Average Game Error | 47.7 | 36.5 |
And the overall 7 Week summary table;
| Ave. Game Error | Line Bet Record | ||||
| The Machine | Sporstbet | No. Bets | Wins | Profit/Loss | |
| Week1 | 41 | 38.39 | 5 | 1 | -$15.40 |
| Week2 | 27.44 | 31.17 | 4 | 3 | +$8.80 |
| Week3 | 19.11 | 25.78 | 6 | 6 | +$27.60 |
| Week4 | 34.22 | 43.67 | 5 | 5 | +$23.00 |
| Week5 | 21.78 | 15 | 4 | 1 | -$10.40 |
| Week6 | 19.4 | 24.9 | 3 | 2 | +$4.20 |
| Week7 | 47.7 | 36.5 | 4 | 1 | -$10.40 |
| Ave. Error | 30.09 | 30.77 | 31 | 19 | +$27.40 |
While I am still profiting from The Machine overall, my real interest lies in the line predicting accuracy of the model. So can The Machine respond more positively this week? Or will Sportsbet deliver another fatal blow.
Here is its Round 14 forecasting;
| Round 14 | Machine Winner | Machine Margin | Sportsbet Line | Difference | Machine’s Bet | Stake |
| Carlton V Hawks | Hawks | 10 | 23.5 | 13.5 | Back BLUES at the line | $5 |
| C’Wood V Freo | C’Wood | 31 | 38.5 | 7.5 | No bet | |
| Adel. V Tigers | Tigers | 4 | Ade(16.5) | 20.5 | Back TIGERS at the line | $5 |
| WCE V G.Coast | WCE | 62 | 69.5 | 7.5 | No bet | |
| Sydney V GWS | Sydney | 52 | 67.5 | 15.5 | Back GWS at the line | $5 |
| Ess. V Doggies | Essendon | 38 | 29.5 | 8.5 | No bet | |
| Geelong V Port | Geelong | 23 | 49.5 | 26.5 | Back PORT at the line | $5 |
| Brisbane V Demons | Brisbane | 12 | 18.5 | 6.5 | No bet | |
| Saints V North | Saints | 34 | 18.5 | 15.5 | Back SAINTS at the line | $5 |
If I was to bring emotion into my analysis of The Machine’s output this week I would may say;
“Not bloody Port again!” or “Has Crouching been fiddling with this! Not sure about a Richmond win in Adelaide.” and maybe even, “Didn’t GWS drop their bundle last week? Surely Sydney will destroy this line?’
All of these statements are based on my instinctive feel. I think I would rather trust in an analytical process – The Machine. And if at season’s end it is beaten by Sportsbet, I will be spending my summer break with my one and only true love, EXCEL, building a better model(Lies! I have already started).
Yours in numeric faith,
Peter Higginbotham
5 Comments
The Peanut · 29/06/2012 at 09:47
Gone a bit quiet in here Higgo.
Was it Jock that once said, "ye of little faith."
I'm going again champ, crazy, but I figure I'm still up a few hundred, and it does make the games fun/tense.
Go Machine!
Jon Bon Jovi · 29/06/2012 at 21:35
There is only one of those bets I can go into with confidence and its the saints at the line bet… very nervous with the other ones!
Daz · 02/07/2012 at 09:51
Higgo,
I think The Machine is broken! 🙁 if I've checked correctly, Sportsbet has you covered in every game this round. The Machine seems to give a serious boost to weaker teams, especially GWS – they've been a bet against the line the last few weeks, if I'm not mistaken, and they've screwed the pooch on each occasion! Is there a tweak you could make to reflect this?
I'm not a Machine basher, I've followed closely and was stoked when it scored me $260 from a $5 multi back in week 3 or 4… But for the last 4 weeks, The Machine has dropped the ball big time and I'm losing faith in Mathematics! Do you have an theories on what's gone wrong lately?
Shanen · 05/07/2012 at 00:31
1 out of 5 this week.
I'm also a huge follower of the machine… haven't been sucked into the multi's though – as well advised from Higgo…
But this week really does make it easy to draw back to the fact that punting is the fools game and we can never out predict the agency – given their lines are drawn from the money…
Definitely not bashing the machine. Just a useless comment really… – but keep this segment going, and give us some assurance the machine is using all the right variables! Thanks Higoo!
Cedric · 01/05/2013 at 02:44
Wonderful site. A lot of useful information here. I’m sending it to several pals ans additionally sharing in delicious. And of course, thank you for your sweat!
Comments are closed.