For those that have joined the experiment late, I have developed a formula for predicting game outcomes and margins by using team’s playing 22 Supercoach value, adjusted with just three other factors; a “break-evens” form factor, a home-team advantage(if statistically significant) and a ground size factor.
The fun is two-fold. Each week I place small $5 line bets that offer me enjoyment in the short-term, while the long-term real fun lies in matching my model, referred to as “The Machine“, against Sportsbet’s line predicting model.
Summary of Week 6;
|Round 12||Winner||Margin||Machine Error||Sportsbet Error|
|Crows V St. Kilda||Crows||4||2||11.5|
|GWS V Richmond||Richmond||12||11||46.5|
|Gold Coast V North||North||7||17||30.5|
|Hawks V Brisbane||Hawks||65||22||14.5|
|Doggies V Port||Doggies||38||45||21.5|
|Average Game Error||19.4||24.9|
Here is the summary of all lines and bets to date;
|Ave. Game Error||Line Bet Record|
|The Machine||Sporstbet||No. Bets||Wins||Profit/Loss|
So, the two important facts that I must highlight are;
1. The Machine line is on average, 2.66 points closer to actual game margins than the Sportsbet calculation.
2. After placing 27 $5 line bets over 6 weeks, I have made a profit of $37.80.
Here is The Machine‘s output and bets for Round 13;
|Round 13||Machine Winner||Machine Margin||Sportsbet Line||Difference||Machine’s Bet||Stake|
|Sydney V Geelong||Geelong||10||Syd(8.5)||18.5||Back CATS at the line||$5|
|Dogs V Brisbane||Dogs||21||19.5||1.5||No bet|
|C’Wood V WCE||C’Wood||18||14.5||3.5||No bet|
|Freo V Essendon||Freo||12||Ess(4.5)||16.5||Back FREO at the line||$5|
|Melb. V GWS||Melbourne||8||22.5||14.5||Back GWS at the line||$5|
|North V Adelaide||Adelaide||38||20.5||17.5||Back CROWS at the line||$5|
As per-usual, the machine has predicted a few upsets. Looking back through The Machine’s logs, it has predicted 6 Sportsbet underdogs thus far and got 4 of them correct. In fact, the 2 losing uderdog predictions have both been Port selections. Interesting.
Enjoy this, the final bye round, and I look forward following these lines with my calculated $5 bet this weekend.