In Round 11, The Machine was soundly beaten – both at the line and in terms of winning bets. But remember folks, we are only interested in the long-term expected outcome. In this regard, The Machineis still on top.
24 bets, 16 winners (66.66% strike rate)
Line Error, The Machine up by a slight 2.09 point per game.
And now for this week’s number crunching:
| Rd. 12 | Machine Winner | Machine Margin | Sportsbet Line | Difference | Machine’s Bet | Stake |
| Crows V St. Kilda | Crows | 6 | 15.5 | 9.5 | No bet | |
| GWS V Richmond | Richmond | 23 | 58.5 | 35.5 | Back GWS at the line | $5 |
| Gold Coast V North | North | 24 | 37.5 | 13.5 | Back GCoast at the line | $5 |
| Hawks V Brisbane | Hawks | 43 | 50.5 | 7.5 | No bet | |
| Doggies V Port Adel. | Port Adel. | 7 | (Dogs) 16.5 | 23.5 | Back PORT at the line | $5 |
Again, The Machine has gone for Port to win against the odds.
My money has been placed and while I will undoubtedly be getting excited over close line games, I wont be getting dissapointed in a bad result. The fun in this is in “the ultimate challenge” – The Machine V Sportsbet. And even if Sportsbet is the winner at the end of the season, the fun will begin again when I pull apart The Machine and try and improve it.
This type of controlled betting is fun. Uncontrolled emotion betting is not!
Yours unashamedly in love with Mathematics,
Peter Higginbotham
6 Comments
Owen · 16/06/2012 at 02:50
Out of interest Higgo, what was the machines output for the Eagles and Blues game?
Higgo · 16/06/2012 at 04:04
Eagles by 38 pts.
Roman · 16/06/2012 at 03:11
Higgo–how stiff can you be with all those Eagle behinds last night.
big fella · 16/06/2012 at 13:13
nice adelaide prediction moit
The Peanut · 17/06/2012 at 22:19
Here we go again Higgo. Will be sweating on a Port win. If they win, I owe you another 10 beers. Thanks mate, love your work.
Fitzy · 17/06/2012 at 22:33
I got greedy and took a multi using all the margins from Higgo, however I took those useless good for nothing tigers by 20 to 39pts rather than under 39.5pts…all for the sake of an extra $1.20 in the multi…grr
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