In Round 11, The Machine was soundly beaten – both at the line and in terms of winning bets. But remember folks, we are only interested in the long-term expected outcome. In this regard, The Machineis still on top.

 24 bets, 16 winners (66.66% strike rate)

Line Error, The Machine up by a slight 2.09 point per game.

And now for this week’s number crunching:

Rd. 12 Machine Winner  Machine Margin   Sportsbet Line   Difference  Machine’s Bet Stake
             
Crows V    St. Kilda Crows 6 15.5 9.5 No bet  
GWS V Richmond Richmond 23 58.5 35.5 Back GWS at the line $5
Gold Coast V North North 24 37.5 13.5 Back GCoast at the line $5
Hawks V Brisbane Hawks 43 50.5 7.5 No bet  
Doggies V Port Adel. Port Adel. 7 (Dogs) 16.5 23.5 Back PORT at the line $5

Again, The Machine has gone for Port to win against the odds.

My money has been placed and while I will undoubtedly be getting excited over close line games, I wont be getting dissapointed in a bad result. The fun in this is in “the ultimate challenge” – The Machine V Sportsbet. And even if Sportsbet is the winner at the end of the season, the fun will begin again when I pull apart The Machine and try and improve it.

This type of controlled betting is fun. Uncontrolled emotion betting is not!

Yours unashamedly in love with Mathematics,

Peter Higginbotham

 


6 Comments

Owen · 16/06/2012 at 02:50

Out of interest Higgo, what was the machines output for the Eagles and Blues game?

    Higgo · 16/06/2012 at 04:04

    Eagles by 38 pts.

Roman · 16/06/2012 at 03:11

Higgo–how stiff can you be with all those Eagle behinds last night.

big fella · 16/06/2012 at 13:13

nice adelaide prediction moit

The Peanut · 17/06/2012 at 22:19

Here we go again Higgo. Will be sweating on a Port win. If they win, I owe you another 10 beers. Thanks mate, love your work.

Fitzy · 17/06/2012 at 22:33

I got greedy and took a multi using all the margins from Higgo, however I took those useless good for nothing tigers by 20 to 39pts rather than under 39.5pts…all for the sake of an extra $1.20 in the multi…grr

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