In Round 11, The Machine was soundly beaten – both at the line and in terms of winning bets. But remember folks, we are only interested in the long-term expected outcome. In this regard, The Machineis still on top.
24 bets, 16 winners (66.66% strike rate)
Line Error, The Machine up by a slight 2.09 point per game.
And now for this week’s number crunching:
|Rd. 12||Machine Winner||Machine Margin||Sportsbet Line||Difference||Machine’s Bet||Stake|
|Crows V St. Kilda||Crows||6||15.5||9.5||No bet|
|GWS V Richmond||Richmond||23||58.5||35.5||Back GWS at the line||$5|
|Gold Coast V North||North||24||37.5||13.5||Back GCoast at the line||$5|
|Hawks V Brisbane||Hawks||43||50.5||7.5||No bet|
|Doggies V Port Adel.||Port Adel.||7||(Dogs) 16.5||23.5||Back PORT at the line||$5|
Again, The Machine has gone for Port to win against the odds.
My money has been placed and while I will undoubtedly be getting excited over close line games, I wont be getting dissapointed in a bad result. The fun in this is in “the ultimate challenge” – The Machine V Sportsbet. And even if Sportsbet is the winner at the end of the season, the fun will begin again when I pull apart The Machine and try and improve it.
This type of controlled betting is fun. Uncontrolled emotion betting is not!
Yours unashamedly in love with Mathematics,