Higgo’s Punting machine – Week 5
Another good week for The Machine.
After 4 weeks and 20 bets, the data is starting to point in favor of The Machine line with 15 bets getting up – a 75% strike rate. I have put on $100 worth of bets and turned a profit of $44.
What I find most interesting is that The Machine line is clearly beating the Sportsbet predition(by 4.3 points per game). While this does not sound significant, it can give us a little leverage against the line and swing the balance in our favor.
And here are last week’s results;
The Machine has done its thing for Round 11 and formulated a few very interesting results;
| Rd. 11 | Formulated Winner | Formulated Margin | Sportsbet Line | Difference | Higgo’s Bet | Stake |
| Geelong V Carlton | Geelong | 38 | 14.5 | 23.5 | Back CATS at the line | $5 |
| Richmond V Freo. | Richmond | 24 | 30.5 | 6.5 | No bet | |
| G.Coast V Saints | Saints | 29 | 43.5 | 14.5 | Back GCoast at the line | $5 |
| Essendon V Sydney | Sydney | 12 | (Ess)10.5 | 22.5 | Back SYDNEY at the line | $5 |
| Port V Hawks | Port | 4 | (Hawks)26.5 | 30.5 | Back PORT at the line | $5 |
| Melb. V C’wood | C’wood | 52 | 46.5 | 5.5 | No bet |
Sydney to beat Essendon? Port to beat Hawthorn?
I must have faith in The Machine.
Looking at the Port game, The Machine has favored Port mainly due to Hawthorn’s poor Break Even factor. The only Hawks with break-evens below their current average are Buddy, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Whitecross and The Shoe Maker(Port have 15 players). This three week rolling form factor, linked with a slight home ground advantage, has formulated Port winning by less than a kick.
For those Multi-punters out there, putting CATS line …. into …. GCOAST line ….. into … SYDNEY WIN …. into PORT WIN offers odds of around 35 – 1. A return of $175 for your $5. But Port couldn’t win could they?
Go well and let logic rule your decision making.
Yours analytically,
Peter Higginbotham.
6 Comments
Stoney · 08/06/2012 at 09:49
Good stuff higgo interesting there with port but could pay off 🙂
Benn · 08/06/2012 at 09:51
Higgo – Your football smarts have granted me the gift of turning a a single red back into 500 hundred smackaroos over the last two weeks… I tip my hat to you sir.. This week however I'm not feeling THAT confident in the machine.. I don't like the Sydney bet and the Port one to me seems a bit iffy… Nevertheless I would be a fool not to stick some form of currency on this, so I shall put down a 10'er, hoping to turn this into a greenback! May the force be with us all!
Dorge · 08/06/2012 at 10:00
I like it Higgo. Time to add a few of these to this weeks multis.
Not sure about Sydney though, with Mags and Parko out
Merlin · 09/06/2012 at 02:24
think you're machine's gonna fail you this week bud
stickyboi · 10/06/2012 at 02:44
Didn't like the port option, so slipped Freo at the line instead..
Should be 2/2.
K.Simpson for most disposals was nice at $8 too 🙂 🙂
Benny.. · 10/06/2012 at 08:32
Spewin u can't predict injuries… Traded HMac for Sandi this week.
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