Higgo’s Punting Machine Week 4
While last week was a good week for The Machine, I must start by putting it into context.
Tipping 6 out of 6 by my rough calculations is equally as likely as tipping 2 out of 6. It would be foolish to take the results of last week as fuel to “load up” this week – mug punters use this same logic when betting on red in roulette given that the last four spins resulted in yellow – illogical!
There is still not enough data to conclude that The Machine is a better line margin predictor that the Sportsbet’s model. Time will tell.
Here is a summary of last week’s results;
|Rd. 9||Winner||Winning Margin||SC Punting Machine||Points off Margain||Sportsbet Line||Points off Margain|
|Game 3||Port||48||Port Adelaide||34||14||Port Adelaide||12.5||35.5|
|Game 4||St, Kilda||28||St. Kilda||21||7||Sydney||2.5||30.5|
|Game 6||Essendon||66||Essendon||42||Essendon||no line|
|Ave. Game Error||21.5||Ave. Game Error||29|
Here is a summary of The Machine against Sportsbet over the first 3 Weeks;
|Ave. Line Error||Line Bet Record|
|The Machine||Sports Bet||No. Bets||Wins||Profit/Loss|
So after three weeks, 15 bets have been placed with 10 successful outcomes. Which is dollar terms equates to $75 worth of bets that have returned $96 dollars – a net profit of $21.
While this doesn’t sound great, The Machine is in front and Mother and I have gained immense pleasure from many very close line games – last Friday’s game was no exception.
On inspection, Round 10 presents some very tough games. Here is The Machine’s weekly output;
|Formulated Winner||Formulated Margin||Sportsbet Line||Difference||Higgo’s Bet||Stake|
|Saints V Tigers||Tigers||23||0||23||Back Richmond to win (no line)||$5|
|Geelong V GWS||Geelong||66||79.5||13.5||Back GWS at the line||$5|
|Hawks V North||Hawks||34||25.5||8.5||No bet|
|Freo V Crows||Crows||25||9.5||15.5||Back Crows at the line||$5|
|Essendon V Melbourne||Essendon||39||54.5||15.5||Back Melbourne at the line||$5|
|Port V Carlton||Port||13||Carlton(19.5)||32.5||Back Port at the line||$5|
|Brisbane V WCE||West Coast||27||28.5||1.5||No bet|
|Sydney V Bulldogs||Sydney||18||23.5||5.5||No bet|
|C’wood V Gold Coast||Collingwood||67||68.5||1.5||No bet|
Interesting …. it looks like Mother and I will be supporting GWS and Melbourne this weekend.
Port Adelaide has come up as the best bet for the round, even with Yarran’s inclusion, Port’s SC team value is almost $280,000 higher after break-even adjustments. The Machine also gave Port a slight home ground advantage factor in this game to come up with the final result of the home team by 13.
Mother and I are both pleased with the fact that The Machine has granted us a Friday night bet …. our favorite game of the week.
Enjoy and please follow these tips at your own peril!
(ps.. Jock insists I remind our community to check this weeks crudely named Cattle Market for all the Supercoach bargains of the week)