Higgo’s Punting Machine Week 4
While last week was a good week for The Machine, I must start by putting it into context.
Tipping 6 out of 6 by my rough calculations is equally as likely as tipping 2 out of 6. It would be foolish to take the results of last week as fuel to “load up” this week – mug punters use this same logic when betting on red in roulette given that the last four spins resulted in yellow – illogical!
There is still not enough data to conclude that The Machine is a better line margin predictor that the Sportsbet’s model. Time will tell.
Here is a summary of last week’s results;
| Rd. 9 | Winner | Winning Margin | SC Punting Machine | Points off Margain | Sportsbet Line | Points off Margain | ||
| Game 1 | Geelong | 20 | Geelong | 12 | 8 | Geelong | 29.5 | 9.5 |
| Game 2 | Richmond | 62 | Hawthorn | 7 | 69 | Hawthorn | 21.5 | 83.5 |
| Game 3 | Port | 48 | Port Adelaide | 34 | 14 | Port Adelaide | 12.5 | 35.5 |
| Game 4 | St, Kilda | 28 | St. Kilda | 21 | 7 | Sydney | 2.5 | 30.5 |
| Game 5 | Collingwood | 26 | Collingwood | 7 | 19 | Adelaide | 13.5 | 29.5 |
| Game 6 | Essendon | 66 | Essendon | 42 | Essendon | no line | ||
| Game 7 | North | 16 | North | 27 | 11 | North | 23.5 | 7.5 |
| Game 8 | Carlton | 58 | Carlton | 67 | 9 | Carlton | 50.5 | 7.5 |
| Game 9 | WCE | 48 | WCE | 13 | 35 | WCE | 19.5 | 28.5 |
| Total | 172 | Total | 232 | |||||
| Ave. Game Error | 21.5 | Ave. Game Error | 29 | |||||
Here is a summary of The Machine against Sportsbet over the first 3 Weeks;
| Ave. Line Error | Line Bet Record | ||||
| The Machine | Sports Bet | No. Bets | Wins | Profit/Loss | |
| Week 1 | 41 | 38.39 | 5 | 1 | -$15.40 |
| Week 2 | 27.44 | 31.17 | 4 | 3 | $8.80 |
| Week 3 | 21.5 | 29 | 6 | 6 | $27.60 |
| Av.Error | 29.98 | 32.85 | Total Profit/Loss | $21.00 | |
So after three weeks, 15 bets have been placed with 10 successful outcomes. Which is dollar terms equates to $75 worth of bets that have returned $96 dollars – a net profit of $21.
While this doesn’t sound great, The Machine is in front and Mother and I have gained immense pleasure from many very close line games – last Friday’s game was no exception.
On inspection, Round 10 presents some very tough games. Here is The Machine’s weekly output;
| Formulated Winner | Formulated Margin | Sportsbet Line | Difference | Higgo’s Bet | Stake | |
| Saints V Tigers | Tigers | 23 | 0 | 23 | Back Richmond to win (no line) | $5 |
| Geelong V GWS | Geelong | 66 | 79.5 | 13.5 | Back GWS at the line | $5 |
| Hawks V North | Hawks | 34 | 25.5 | 8.5 | No bet | |
| Freo V Crows | Crows | 25 | 9.5 | 15.5 | Back Crows at the line | $5 |
| Essendon V Melbourne | Essendon | 39 | 54.5 | 15.5 | Back Melbourne at the line | $5 |
| Port V Carlton | Port | 13 | Carlton(19.5) | 32.5 | Back Port at the line | $5 |
| Brisbane V WCE | West Coast | 27 | 28.5 | 1.5 | No bet | |
| Sydney V Bulldogs | Sydney | 18 | 23.5 | 5.5 | No bet | |
| C’wood V Gold Coast | Collingwood | 67 | 68.5 | 1.5 | No bet |
Interesting …. it looks like Mother and I will be supporting GWS and Melbourne this weekend.
Port Adelaide has come up as the best bet for the round, even with Yarran’s inclusion, Port’s SC team value is almost $280,000 higher after break-even adjustments. The Machine also gave Port a slight home ground advantage factor in this game to come up with the final result of the home team by 13.
Mother and I are both pleased with the fact that The Machine has granted us a Friday night bet …. our favorite game of the week.
Enjoy and please follow these tips at your own peril!
Regards,
Peter Higginbotham
(ps.. Jock insists I remind our community to check this weeks crudely named Cattle Market for all the Supercoach bargains of the week)
20 Comments
Tim · 01/06/2012 at 10:37
Shouldn't you be dividing by 8 games rather than 9? You're essentially giving yourself a 0 on the GWS game.
Higgo · 01/06/2012 at 19:18
Dear Tim,
Good pick-up. Adjustment made.
Regards,
Peter Higginbotham
MugPunta · 02/06/2012 at 00:28
Sorry Higgo I am going against your advice and loading up.
Put em all in a multi paying 28-1.
Hoping my $10 become $280!!!
MJ · 02/06/2012 at 01:32
Good work Higgo,
great advise regarding loading up this week. Well done all those that put a multi on last week but guys please don't jump on board thinking that you will get those returns every week. Higgo's system is a bit of fun and it has been designed for the single bet to possibly get returns over the long term …
Saying that I am still going to use your numbers for my "cert" bet as I did last week. As I said a cert in my books is 5 goals and then I will give myself a buffer of two goals and a point so 43 is my magic number
Start tonight with Richmond +32.5pts at $1.23 .. As the machine has them winning by 23pts this gives me a difference of 55pts safely over my 43pt rule
Will have a look at the rest tonight if Richmond don't manage to lose by 33pts as I will be rolling it over into tomorrow. Very interesting that the machine is going for Port .. this has me worried but will stick with the plan, the blues have been worse than poor over the last three weeks and if your machine runs through I suspect the blues will be looking for a new coach by seasons end
MJ · 02/06/2012 at 22:30
Geelong v GWS, Machine: Geelong 66, Betfair Handcap: GWS +104, Difference: 38, 43 – bet odds 1.02
Hawks v North, Machine: Hawks 34, Betfair Handcap: North +55, Difference: 21, <43 – no bet
Hawks 4.5pts, Difference: 38pts, <43 – no bet
Freo v Crow, Machine: Crows 25, Betfair Handcap: Freo +40.5, Difference: 15, 43 – bet odds 1.18 (wow this is close, might actually get nervous watching this one)
Bombers v Dees, Machine: Bombers 39, Betfair Handcap: Dees +85, Difference: 46, > 43 – bet odds 1.17
Port v Blues, Machine: Port 13, Betfair Handcap: Port +49, Difference: 62, > 43 – bet odds 1.19
As the last two games are on at the same time I will only be able to go with one bet .. as port offer greater value and larger spread i'll be backing them
so to summarise
Tigers +32.5pts at 1.23 (completed)
Geelong over 15.5pts at 1.02
Crows +19.5pts at 1.18
Port +49.5pts at 1.19
rolling each bet will give me odds of 1.76
nervous about the crows and port now :/
the falcon · 02/06/2012 at 04:19
i am in the same boat as mugpunta $20 on all your selections in a multi,let the good times roll.
Roman · 03/06/2012 at 06:16
Who doubted The Machine? Not I..Put $5 on each and $5 on a multi…3 from 3 thus far. Higgo. I could kiss you!(Samantha)
disco Stu · 03/06/2012 at 06:36
Holy cash flow…. Go dees!This is good Higgo. I too have strong feelings toward you.
Stickydocker · 03/06/2012 at 08:43
Higgo u bloody legend!!
Did a 3, a 4 a 5 multi and looks like they'll come in!!!
Cha-ching cobber!
Crumpet · 03/06/2012 at 09:20
I love you Peter!!
Tommy · 03/06/2012 at 09:20
BANG!
Cheers for the multi Higgo.
FrankZappa · 03/06/2012 at 09:23
My mum is single HIGGO. I owe you one bro. Help yourself.
Fitzy · 03/06/2012 at 19:22
I took a multi – Tigers to win, Port to win, Adel, Melb and GWS at the line.
Higgo you have made me a very happy camper
PS don't tell anyone about this…LOL
Roman · 03/06/2012 at 23:31
Samantha here again dear man. I'm all a flush. The boy next door said the $5 I gave him to bet for me returned $133.18. You gave me a multi you clever pet! We must meet.
Benn · 03/06/2012 at 23:58
Higgo I owe you a big kiss.. Another $250 in my back pocket thanks to that multi! Everyone get around higgo!
Jon Jon · 04/06/2012 at 23:54
Hats off to you Higgo…
Choppa · 06/06/2012 at 22:30
cant follow this punting machines results table at all, makes zero sense and im a smart man, needs more info or more explaining before i get my cash out. love to know more and try it higgo, so hit me with ya best shot mate.
Higgo · 07/06/2012 at 02:47
Dear Choppa,
This system all relies on your knowledge of "the line" concept. My formula produces a winner and a margin. I then compare this to Sportsbet's winner and margin. If the difference is greater than 12 points, I place a simple $5 line bet.
Does this make sense? Better not to bet if unsure.
Regards,
Peter Higginbotham
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