Well, a disastrous first week with only one of the five line bets getting up!
Starting with $100, I am already down to $84.60. While it was unfortunate that the week offered a few form swings, I am confident of turning things around. I must take emotion out of it and trust in long-run probability. At first you don’t succeed, try, try again – or fail. In case of the later, at least I will know my formula is ineffective.
For those new to the page, I am using a formula for predicting game margins that simply compares team’s total playing Supercoach values. This is adjusted with a “form factor” which is calculated using players Break-Evens. The only other variables I compute are interstate travel factors, a home team advantage(if present) and a ground size factor.
Here is a summary of last week’s outcomes;
|Rd. 7||Winner||Winning Margin||SC Punting Machine||Points off Margain||Sportsbet Line||Points off Margain|
|Game 1||Hawthorn||66||Hawthorn 65||1||Hawks 48.5||17.5|
|Game 2||Adelaide||50||Geelong10||60||Cats 7.5||57.5|
|Game 3||GWS||27||Gold Coast 38||65||Gold Coast 22.5||59.5|
|Game 4||Richmond||29||Richmond 3||26||0||29|
|Game 5||Collingwood||58||Collingwood 15||43||Collingwood 27.5||30.5|
|Game 6||Essendon||61||Essendon 7||54||0||61|
|Game 7||Dogs||18||North 33||56||North 15.5||33.5|
|Game 8||Fremantle||40||Freo 21||19||Freo 33.5||6.5|
|Game 9||St.Kilda||24||Carlton 21||45||Carlton 26.5||50.5|
|Ave. Game Error||41||Ave. Game Error||38.39|
One pleasing factor is that my “line machine” predictions was only 2.61 points worse than Sportsbets lines per game.
This week The Machine has thrown up some interesting lines. My rules stipulate that I can only bet if my line differs by more than 2 goals(all winning lines pay $1.92).
|Formulated Winner||Formulated Margin||Sportsbet Line||Difference||Higgo’s Bet||Stake|
|Collingwood V Geelong||Geelong||12||5.5 (Collingwood)||17.5||Back Geelong at the line||$5|
|Port Adelaide V North||North M.||21||15.5||5.5||No bet|
|Hawks V Fremantle||Hawks||52||29.5||22.5||Back Hawks at the line||$5|
|Sydney V Melbourne||Sydney||51||41.5||9.5||No bet|
|Essendon V Richmond||Essendon||24||12.5||11.5||No bet|
|W. Bulldogs V Gold Coast||Bulldogs||41||33.5||7.5||No bet|
|Brisbane Lions V GWS||Brisbane||27||30.5||3.5||No bet|
|Carlton V Adelaide||Adelaide||4||16.5(Carlton)||20.5||Back Adelaide at the line||$5|
|WCEagles V St.Kilda||WCE||38||17.5||20.5||Back WCE at the line||$5|
Interesting to note that The Machine has predicted two Sportsbet under-dogs; Geelong and Adelaide. This can be explained by Geelong’s big “ins” adding to the team Supercoach value(Bartel, Scarlet & Stokes in particular). Adelaide’s form last week makes for a big break-even adjustment, while Carlton’s break-evens decrease their value. Given the straight out win offers better value than the line, I am extremely tempted to take them for straight out wins BUT I MUST STICK TO THE FORMULA(special thanks to Shanen Ma for reminding me of this).
If all 4 best get up this week, I will turn a 2 week net profit of …. wait for it ….. $3!
While Mother disagrees with The Machine on the Hawks line, she is happy to back the other three – we will both be enjoying the added level of interest that these small and calculated bets bring.