While building The Higginator earlier this year, an idea so brilliant and obvious hit me that I was forced into action.
I CAN USE EACH TEAM’S WEEKLY SUPERCOACH VALUE AS A MEANS OF PUTTING A NUMERIC VALUE ON THEIR STRENGTH!
This simple realisation got my spreadsheets spinning. I considered other key game factors, fiddled, tested …. and finally I have a formula that I am confident enough to test in front of The Jock Reynolds Community.
My formula uses the sum of each team’s Playing 22 Supercoach Price (which is adjusted with breakeven factors), a Home Ground Advantage factor, an Interstate Travel factor and a Ground Size factor.
Just four key inputs sounds too simplistic, but after its testing phase, this formula has proven most accurate over the first 6 rounds.
My formula will give me a predicted winner and a margin for each game. With these I then check the line margin that is being offered and if my prediction differs by over 2 goals, a simple $5 line bet is placed.
|Formulated Winner||Formulated Margin||Sportsbet Line||Diff.||Higgo’s Bet||Stake|
|1||Melbourne V Hawthorn||Hawthorn||65||48.5||16.5||Back Hawks at the line||$5|
|2||Adelaide V Geelong||Geelong||10||7.5||2.5||No bet|
|3||GWS V Gold Coast||Gold Coast||38||22.5||15.5||Back Gold coast at the line||$5|
|4||Richmond V Sydney||Richmond||3||no line||No bet|
|5||Brisbane V Collingwood||Collingwood||15||27.5||-12.5||Back Brisbane at the line||$5|
|6||Essendon V WCE||WCE||7||no line||No bet|
|7||North V Western Dogs||North Melbourne||33||15.5||17.5||Back North at the line||$5|
|8||Fremantle V Port||Fremantle||21||33.5||-12.5||Back Port at the line||$5|
|9||St.Kilda V Carlton||Carlton||21||26.5||-5.5||No bet|
The number 1 rule to successful punting is sticking to an initial strategy. Here is mine;
1. Starting with $100 and game over for 2012 when this runs out.
2. I must stick to simple $5 line bets.
3. Regardless of what I believe, I must trust the formula and place bets accordingly.
My expected returns are low(all line bets pay $1.92). In fact, I will only turn a Round 7 profit if 3 or more of my 5 bets get up! BUT my expected losses are also low so I am hoping that my $100 will see me out for the season.
Like watching a game with a keen eye on your Supercoach players, this simple line option offers me an added level of interest and has served me well thus far in season 2012.
I look forward to keeping you updated weekly on my progress.