While building The Higginator earlier this year, an idea so brilliant and obvious hit me that I was forced into action.

I CAN USE EACH TEAM’S WEEKLY SUPERCOACH VALUE AS A MEANS OF PUTTING A NUMERIC VALUE ON THEIR STRENGTH!

This simple realisation got my spreadsheets spinning. I considered other key game factors, fiddled, tested …. and finally I have a formula that I am confident enough to test in front of The Jock Reynolds Community.

My formula uses the sum of each team’s Playing 22 Supercoach Price (which is adjusted with breakeven factors), a Home Ground Advantage factor, an Interstate Travel factor and a Ground Size factor.

Just four key inputs sounds too simplistic, but after its testing phase, this formula has proven most accurate over the first 6 rounds.

My formula will give me a predicted winner and a margin for each game. With these I then check the line margin that is being offered and if my prediction differs by over 2 goals, a simple $5 line bet is placed.

  Formulated Winner Formulated Margin Sportsbet Line  Diff. Higgo’s Bet Stake
1 Melbourne V Hawthorn Hawthorn 65 48.5 16.5 Back Hawks at the line $5
2 Adelaide V Geelong Geelong 10 7.5 2.5 No bet  
3 GWS V Gold Coast Gold Coast 38 22.5 15.5 Back Gold coast at the line $5
4 Richmond V Sydney Richmond 3 no line   No bet  
5 Brisbane V Collingwood Collingwood 15 27.5 -12.5 Back Brisbane at the line $5
6 Essendon V WCE WCE 7 no line   No bet  
7 North V Western Dogs North Melbourne 33 15.5 17.5 Back North at the line $5
8 Fremantle V Port Fremantle 21 33.5 -12.5 Back Port at the line $5
9 St.Kilda V Carlton Carlton 21 26.5 -5.5 No bet  

The number 1 rule to successful punting is sticking to an initial strategy. Here is mine;

1. Starting with $100 and game over for 2012 when this runs out.

2. I must stick to simple $5 line bets.

3. Regardless of what I believe, I must trust the formula and place bets accordingly.

 

My expected returns are low(all line bets pay $1.92). In fact, I will only turn a Round 7 profit if 3 or more of my 5 bets get up! BUT my expected losses are also low so I am hoping that my $100 will see me out for the season.

Like watching a game with a keen eye on your Supercoach players, this simple line option offers me an added level of interest and has served me well thus far in season 2012.

I look forward to keeping you updated weekly on my progress.

Regards,

Peter Higginbotham


16 Comments

Mark · 12/05/2012 at 03:42

Top shelf Higgo.

Three or more of these get up, and I'm penciling you in for three votes this week, no matter what you say on Monday night!

BB · 12/05/2012 at 04:12

Id steer clear of the Melbourne-Hawthorn bet- I reckon its gonna be a 45 point margin.

J-Mo · 12/05/2012 at 04:19

Genius!

I'm in love · 12/05/2012 at 05:28

I'M TRYING TO QUIT BETTING! loljks now I have no chance

The Wanderer · 12/05/2012 at 06:26

yeah, I'll stick to fantasy footy, thanks Higgo 🙂

Razzle · 12/05/2012 at 06:35

did i just read brisbane over the pies…..okay…

    JohnnoB · 12/05/2012 at 07:41

    Nope. He means Brisbane to lose by less than 28 points ..or win. Not a bad bet I reckon.

Keffa · 12/05/2012 at 12:19

Terrible Higgo. You've predicted a 65 point margin in the Hawks/Demons game and the margin was in fact 66. Hopeless!

Such Is Life · 12/05/2012 at 12:23

Well done Higgo. Just wondering how you're adding up the prices each week. Surely it's not done manually because that must take forever?!

    Senior Female Crumpe · 12/05/2012 at 23:41

    I am sure Higgo has his spreadsheets doing all of the "heavy lifting".

    I decided to follow you Higgo – Last night's game was fun! You keep this up and we may have to go out on a date!

      Such Is Life · 13/05/2012 at 09:49

      Yeah, since found out a way he may do it. I don't think you can really apply this formula to GWS because the majority of their players are still WAY underpriced, so I think you would yield more accurate results by removing their games from the equation.

Keffa · 13/05/2012 at 10:30

1 out of 3 @ $1.92 Higgo, looks like you're holidaying in Echuca next Summer!

    Tony · 13/05/2012 at 19:48

    Echuca – I don't think he'd enough petrol to get out of his own driveway!!!

peter power · 13/05/2012 at 23:44

I do not think many people will follow Higgo's forecasts after this weekend?

Keffa · 15/05/2012 at 01:32

Ouch. 1 in 5. Maybe the system works…… in reverse!?

Jon Jon · 15/05/2012 at 03:59

Like the idea, but on the basis of this week maybe you need to increase the factor for interstate travel and for break-evens.

Apply the required changes for this week to the previous weeks and see if it still works out ok.

Comments are closed.