Higgo’s Supercoach Punting Machine

While building The Higginator earlier this year, an idea so brilliant and obvious hit me that I was forced into action.

I CAN USE EACH TEAM’S WEEKLY SUPERCOACH VALUE AS A MEANS OF PUTTING A NUMERIC VALUE ON THEIR STRENGTH!

This simple realisation got my spreadsheets spinning. I considered other key game factors, fiddled, tested …. and finally I have a formula that I am confident enough to test in front of The Jock Reynolds Community.

My formula uses the sum of each team’s Playing 22 Supercoach Price (which is adjusted with breakeven factors), a Home Ground Advantage factor, an Interstate Travel factor and a Ground Size factor.

Just four key inputs sounds too simplistic, but after its testing phase, this formula has proven most accurate over the first 6 rounds.

My formula will give me a predicted winner and a margin for each game. With these I then check the line margin that is being offered and if my prediction differs by over 2 goals, a simple $5 line bet is placed.

The number 1 rule to successful punting is sticking to an initial strategy. Here is mine;

1. Starting with $100 and game over for 2012 when this runs out.

2. I must stick to simple $5 line bets.

3. Regardless of what I believe, I must trust the formula and place bets accordingly.

My expected returns are low(all line bets pay $1.92). In fact, I will only turn a Round 7 profit if 3 or more of my 5 bets get up! BUT my expected losses are also low so I am hoping that my $100 will see me out for the season.

Like watching a game with a keen eye on your Supercoach players, this simple line option offers me an added level of interest and has served me well thus far in season 2012.

I look forward to keeping you updated weekly on my progress.

Regards,

Peter Higginbotham