While building The Higginator earlier this year, an idea so brilliant and obvious hit me that I was forced into action.
I CAN USE EACH TEAM’S WEEKLY SUPERCOACH VALUE AS A MEANS OF PUTTING A NUMERIC VALUE ON THEIR STRENGTH!
This simple realisation got my spreadsheets spinning. I considered other key game factors, fiddled, tested …. and finally I have a formula that I am confident enough to test in front of The Jock Reynolds Community.
My formula uses the sum of each team’s Playing 22 Supercoach Price (which is adjusted with breakeven factors), a Home Ground Advantage factor, an Interstate Travel factor and a Ground Size factor.
Just four key inputs sounds too simplistic, but after its testing phase, this formula has proven most accurate over the first 6 rounds.
My formula will give me a predicted winner and a margin for each game. With these I then check the line margin that is being offered and if my prediction differs by over 2 goals, a simple $5 line bet is placed.
| Formulated Winner | Formulated Margin | Sportsbet Line | Diff. | Higgo’s Bet | Stake | ||
| 1 | Melbourne V Hawthorn | Hawthorn | 65 | 48.5 | 16.5 | Back Hawks at the line | $5 |
| 2 | Adelaide V Geelong | Geelong | 10 | 7.5 | 2.5 | No bet | |
| 3 | GWS V Gold Coast | Gold Coast | 38 | 22.5 | 15.5 | Back Gold coast at the line | $5 |
| 4 | Richmond V Sydney | Richmond | 3 | no line | No bet | ||
| 5 | Brisbane V Collingwood | Collingwood | 15 | 27.5 | -12.5 | Back Brisbane at the line | $5 |
| 6 | Essendon V WCE | WCE | 7 | no line | No bet | ||
| 7 | North V Western Dogs | North Melbourne | 33 | 15.5 | 17.5 | Back North at the line | $5 |
| 8 | Fremantle V Port | Fremantle | 21 | 33.5 | -12.5 | Back Port at the line | $5 |
| 9 | St.Kilda V Carlton | Carlton | 21 | 26.5 | -5.5 | No bet | |
The number 1 rule to successful punting is sticking to an initial strategy. Here is mine;
1. Starting with $100 and game over for 2012 when this runs out.
2. I must stick to simple $5 line bets.
3. Regardless of what I believe, I must trust the formula and place bets accordingly.
My expected returns are low(all line bets pay $1.92). In fact, I will only turn a Round 7 profit if 3 or more of my 5 bets get up! BUT my expected losses are also low so I am hoping that my $100 will see me out for the season.
Like watching a game with a keen eye on your Supercoach players, this simple line option offers me an added level of interest and has served me well thus far in season 2012.
I look forward to keeping you updated weekly on my progress.
Regards,
Peter Higginbotham
16 Comments
Mark · 12/05/2012 at 03:42
Top shelf Higgo.
Three or more of these get up, and I'm penciling you in for three votes this week, no matter what you say on Monday night!
BB · 12/05/2012 at 04:12
Id steer clear of the Melbourne-Hawthorn bet- I reckon its gonna be a 45 point margin.
J-Mo · 12/05/2012 at 04:19
Genius!
I'm in love · 12/05/2012 at 05:28
I'M TRYING TO QUIT BETTING! loljks now I have no chance
The Wanderer · 12/05/2012 at 06:26
yeah, I'll stick to fantasy footy, thanks Higgo 🙂
Razzle · 12/05/2012 at 06:35
did i just read brisbane over the pies…..okay…
JohnnoB · 12/05/2012 at 07:41
Nope. He means Brisbane to lose by less than 28 points ..or win. Not a bad bet I reckon.
Keffa · 12/05/2012 at 12:19
Terrible Higgo. You've predicted a 65 point margin in the Hawks/Demons game and the margin was in fact 66. Hopeless!
Such Is Life · 12/05/2012 at 12:23
Well done Higgo. Just wondering how you're adding up the prices each week. Surely it's not done manually because that must take forever?!
Senior Female Crumpe · 12/05/2012 at 23:41
I am sure Higgo has his spreadsheets doing all of the "heavy lifting".
I decided to follow you Higgo – Last night's game was fun! You keep this up and we may have to go out on a date!
Such Is Life · 13/05/2012 at 09:49
Yeah, since found out a way he may do it. I don't think you can really apply this formula to GWS because the majority of their players are still WAY underpriced, so I think you would yield more accurate results by removing their games from the equation.
Keffa · 13/05/2012 at 10:30
1 out of 3 @ $1.92 Higgo, looks like you're holidaying in Echuca next Summer!
Tony · 13/05/2012 at 19:48
Echuca – I don't think he'd enough petrol to get out of his own driveway!!!
peter power · 13/05/2012 at 23:44
I do not think many people will follow Higgo's forecasts after this weekend?
Keffa · 15/05/2012 at 01:32
Ouch. 1 in 5. Maybe the system works…… in reverse!?
Jon Jon · 15/05/2012 at 03:59
Like the idea, but on the basis of this week maybe you need to increase the factor for interstate travel and for break-evens.
Apply the required changes for this week to the previous weeks and see if it still works out ok.
Comments are closed.