Trading for your SuperCoach Life!
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Dear analytical devotees,
The title to this post may sound dramatic, but the importance of this trade window can not be understated. As discussed in our latest podcast, ALL coaches should be seriously considering using both trades this week for two reasons;
1. To Jump on Cash Cows
2. To harden your team for the upcoming Round 1 League battle.
A great joy of mine is to find out the big WHY and HOW questions. Why is it that I am still a virgin? Why does fecal matter have such a distinctive taste? …. just a few I am currently working on.
One great WHY and HOW question that I confidently solved is relevant to you; HOW and WHY do Supercoach Players prices change from week to week?
Using some simple mathematical modelling based on power regressions, I have come up with an excellent tool for forecasting changing Supercoach Player Values. While my model is based on 2011 fluctuations, I expect it to be very close again this year and I look forward to testing it against the true price changes that will eventuate after the next lock-out.
I will offer you two lists; Cash Cows & Spuds
The Cash Cows lists is very important to you now. You simply must jump on as many money makers as possible as you will use these later in the season to trade in more Premiums. The two coloured columns offer a value gain given a maintenance of the current average, while the red offers the value gain given a lower than current average game in Round 3.
Now the table of Cash Cows may need to be considered in conjunction with this next table – Pre-Round 3 Spuds. While trading in Premiums is not advised, tough times called for tough measures. Trading down a Premium to a Cow frees up enough cash to make important structural changes to your team ….. anyway, the two coloured columns again offer a decrease in value given the current average is maintained, while the red column anticipates an improved score output in Round 3 – a more likely outcome.
A few small words of advice to help your way with the big trades this week …
1. Remember Brian Lake before you think of ditching Greg Broughton.
2. Think ahead! What players are you hoping to turn cow cash into?
3. Cows usually become fat enough to trade between rounds 6 – 10.
4. Cows and bye rounds are not worth your worry but cashing in cows to Premiums needs some bye round thinking.
5. Which teams have good draws in the next 4-6 weeks? This will help you choose fast fattening cows …… ADELAIDE, ESSENDON, GEELONG & DOGGIES ……. maybe.
6. Have a look at this article from Crouching – it shows you how last year’s winner used trading to his advantage.
More research is required from me and you!
Trade well, trade strong – take emotion out and bring analysis in.
Yours still crumpetless,