First and foremost, I must pay tribute to the great minds at Champion Data and The Herald Sun as the following statistical exploration stands on the shoulders of these giants!
The raw data I used was accessed from;
Firstly, this data is THE MOST IMPORTANT tool for gaining leverage against the Supercoach 2012 player prices. While not the only statistic, players’ pre-season form is always the “top dog” when finding bargain players.
While many of the other great AFL Fantasy websites have sorted this data, with particular focus on Price Per Minute, I felt it crucial to scale these prices before doing so. Why scale? Simply because of the limited draw and the fact that points against a weaker team easily become over inflated.
In an attempt to try and explain how this all works, I will focus on the NAB Cup Champs; Adelaide.
In NAB 2, Adelaide played a team(Brisbane) that was WEAKER than the average team for that round of games.
This was determined by averaging the calculation shown here for each NAB 2 team.
By completing this calculation for each Brisbane player and then finding the average, this gave me a solid statistic to measure NAB 2 team strengths.
Given Brisbane’s NAB 2 team strength factor against ADELAIDE was 0.95, all ADELAIDE players NAB 2 Supercoach scores were scaled down by multiplying them by 0.95.
In NAB 3, all Adelaide players were scaled down by multiplying by 0.81 as Collingwood’s NAB 2 Team was statistically very weak – lots of rookies played. I hope you get it!
Now for the all important SCALED SORTED TABLES ……
Top 20 POINTS PER MINUTE
Top 20 DEFENDERS – POINTS PER MINUTE
Top 20 MIDS – POINTS PER MINUTE
Top 20 RUCKS – POINTS PER MINUTE
Top 20 FORWARDS – POINTS PER MINUTE
Top 20 DUAL POSITION PLAYERS – POINTS PER MINUTE
Top 20 ROOKIES – POINTS PER MINUTE
Please consider these scores in light of other key factors such as;
– Injury history
– Coaching/Positional changes
– Players NOT listed; Dylan Sheil & Sam Gibson come to mind.
– Your overall team balance! Having “swing sets” is very important this year.
Enjoy and I hope this gives you greater confidence when signing off on your 2012 squad.