With every second that the clock ticks closer to the Round 1 lockout, my urge to play with numbers increases. While I know Champion Data will be releasing NAB Cup stats tomorrow (Wednesday 21st March), I just couldn’t help but fiddle with whatever data I could lay my hands on.

Key decisions relating to Rookie selections need to be made with clear analytical confidence. Drawing on numeric wisdom can offer us this confidence.

I used NAB Cup data and devised a weighting formula that factored  in;

  1. Dual Position Status – A key consideration when trading and dealing with the MONSTER bye rounds.
  2. The number of NAB Cup games played and whether or not the rookie played in NAB 5 (treated as a dress rehearsal by many clubs).
  3. A cost per Dream Team Point factor and an overall cost input.

The final Ranking generated was normalised to make the highest ranking player equal to 100.

While numbers don’t lie and numbers don’t have an opinion, the way that they are generated can be biased. These numbers don’t include a few important considerations such as % actual  game time, effectiveness of disposal and changes in coaching structures – all important game factors.

However well informed you are take these lists as further food for thought on your quest to locking in those all important rookies into your squads. Use this in conjunction with Jock’s latest rookie cheat sheet of course.

TABLE 1 – THE TOP ROOKIES OVERALL

TABLE 2 –  Top 10 DEFENDER ROOKIES

TABLE 3 – Top 10 MIDFIELD ROOKIES

TABLE 4 –  Top 10 RUCK ROOKIES

TABLE 5 –  Top 10 FORWARD ROOKIES
Doing statistics reminds me very much of painting mother’s house. A lot of tedious work needs to go into the preparation – data entry is akin to sanding. But then, when a formula is built and tested and you hit that button and let the data speak …… every second you slaved is worthwhile.
These statistics talk to me! They have not only consolidated some thoughts I had on a few rookies but they have highlighted a few that I had missed.
I am not going to name names as that is your job.
Stay tuned for Part 2 when I get my hands on some NAB Supercoach scores!
Kind regards,
Peter Higginbotham

63 Comments

Alex · 21/03/2012 at 09:39

Jock, you have gone above and beyond for us lad. Absolutely brilliant, you are acquiring godlike status in my world. Is there a church I can worship you in on a sunday, or a thursday night when teams are released. I am new to your site but I think ive been on it every night for the past 3 weeks. Cheat sheets, brilliant! The team builder is genius. Your podcasts make me laugh, crouching tiger is a funny little bugger and this table of Rookies is the cherry on a pretty tasty supercoach gateau. Cheers. Alex the coach of the BoltonCrows.

    Jock · 21/03/2012 at 09:42

    Good stuff Alex! We are absolutely rapt that you're all getting value out of this.. chuffed

      Alex · 21/03/2012 at 09:49

      It was my mates 30th birthday on saturday, didnt get him much of a prezzie but I did give him the link to this great site. Best present Ive given anyone for ages. If he beats me this year in our league ill probably think it was a bad idea. Should have just given him a st kilda mug or a coles voucher.

The Big Fella · 21/03/2012 at 09:41

Top Work Higgo! This is the kind of write up I'd like to get into in the last week before lockout. Got anything coming up for Premiums v. Fixture?

    Higgo's · 21/03/2012 at 10:16

    Dear TheBigFella,

    A. Yes. I have been taking note of your astute posts ….. Waiting for some SC Nab scores to release an all important Draw relevant analysis. Hoping to have this out Thursday night.

    B. Does the "Big" refer to size or intellect?? You strike me as a well informed punter.

    Regards,

    Peter Higginbotham

Jock · 21/03/2012 at 09:42

Bloody unreal Higgo! So rapt to have you crankin this site out for us mate. Come a fair way since our Hungry Jacks 7pm Tuesday sessions eh mate!

    Slippery Pete · 21/03/2012 at 10:02

    Yep, keep crankin' em out Higgo!

Jan · 21/03/2012 at 09:52

Jock, will Zorko play Round1-3? Not many whispers around the traps!

    Jock · 21/03/2012 at 23:07

    Round 1 a long shot mate – not much word from Lion land, could be more a rounds 3-5 prospect if I had to guess mate

Mark · 21/03/2012 at 10:14

Can I get your Opinion On this Jock

DEF: B. Deledio, G. Broughton, N. Malceski, B. Lake , M. Clarke, T. Bugg, B. Ellis (T. Mohr, S. Morris)

MID: G. Ablett, D. Swan, M. Boyd, J. Watson, S. Coniglio, S.Clifton (C. Smith, J. Magner)

RUC: S. Mumford, J. Redden (J. Giles, O. Stephenson)

FWD: L. Franklin, N. Fyfe, D. Martin, R. Gray, S. Sidebottom, P. Dangerfield, J. Porplyzia (D. Smith, J. Cameron)

11k left.

I’ve Stacked up on Forwards, because i believe the rookies in the forward line are the hardest to pick.

Im sure Coniglio and Clifton will be regular starters, so i put them on the Ground.

I still see C. Smith as being in the vest for much of the season so i might trade him out. This years Mitch Wallis. But not too many other options to fill his place.

And the Backline is known for getting the least amount of points, so i’ve gone for more rookies in the backline. Hope to trade them out to strengthen that backline eventually.

    cabba · 21/03/2012 at 21:54

    I have a similar backline, will be interested to see if it is dangerous excluding Goddard, Scotland and Shaw..

bruce · 21/03/2012 at 11:45

Awesome Jockster.

From one Reynolds to another. Love your stuff.

DamenS · 21/03/2012 at 12:08

Surely during the preseason Time on Ground NOT being taken into account in these stats (with many players having played 3 half games etc.) renders the statistics useless. What is the point in providing statistics which you know have such a fatal flaw in the first place. Would you say to a crowd, "here's a meal I made – enjoy. It's poisonous though so don't actually EAT it". Someone like Tomlinson has played has played half games (except for the game against Richmond I believe) – so his "55dt point average" over a full game should be significantly higher. There IS a highly pertinent reason why the Fantasy Freako or Dr Dreamteam stats show the points PER 100 minutes played !!

    JoffaC · 21/03/2012 at 16:27

    Breast or bottle DamenS?

    Like your passion but you are spoiling it for those of us with some smarts.

    Thanks Higgo – you deserve a bit of crumpet for this.

    Falchoon · 21/03/2012 at 23:23

    If he has like you say, played only half games, why would you assume he's going to play full games in the regular season?

chels · 21/03/2012 at 18:24

thought provoking gain Higgo – always enjoy your analysis.

Nine posts before some juvenile twerp wanted his team rated instead of thinking – at some stage the "gimmes" will need to grow up and stand on their own feet; lmfao

Spifflicator · 21/03/2012 at 18:49

Fantastic stuff again Higgo! I have really enjoyed all your work so far. Those parabolic curves at the GP must have inspired you!

Brenno · 21/03/2012 at 20:06

Jock,

I opted to downgrade on Franklin and got Petrie. I think Petrie will have a massive yea with a easy draw but CAN YOU WIN WITHOUT BUDDY???????????

    Jacob Cecil · 21/03/2012 at 20:31

    No

    Jock · 21/03/2012 at 23:09

    Gday there Brenno! Would be a brave man to head into season 2012 without the Buddweiser.. would advise against not having him in your side but who knows, could be a masterstroke

    Trav · 22/03/2012 at 06:36

    I've done the same thing. Got to risk it to get the biscuit

NeedAnEdge · 21/03/2012 at 20:07

When is the cut off for rookie promotions on to the senior lists?

My recollection is that Couch hasn't been promoted to date.

Of course Magner is the one missing off these lists as he was absent from Nab 5 – and no need to tell this audience that he has been promoted by the Dees.

Great site and podcast by the way…best in class.

    Higgo · 21/03/2012 at 21:13

    Dear NeedAnEdge,

    Magner, Sheil, Tomlinson, Gibson …. all solid picks that did not make the lists due to the Rd. 5 equation factor.

    Stay tuned for my next article before finalising your team.

    Kind regards,

    Peter Higginbotham

      NeedAnEdge · 22/03/2012 at 00:54

      Agreed.

      Also keeping in mind trying to avoid an over indulgence in relation to GWS players.

Jacob Cecil · 21/03/2012 at 20:27

Loving it higgo! Great math skills! Just curious on Sam Gibson from the Kangas? A dud or injured?

Jesse · 22/03/2012 at 01:03

Took your adive on board and did some changes to my team. Any advice?

Def

Goddard

Scotland

Deledio

Heppell

Hargrave

B ELLIS

S Frost

(Bugg)

(S Morris)

Mid

Ablett

Murphy

Watson

M BOYD

S Clifton

A Miles

(T LEDGER)

(J Magner)

Ruck

lEUENBURGER

GILES

(B LONGER)

(J Redden)

Forward

Franklin

Nathan Fyfe

Hurley

Dangerfield

D MARTIN

D SMITH

J CAMERON

(B SMEDTS)

(J COUCH)

    Jesse · 22/03/2012 at 01:43

    I also have 53k to spare now

      Jon Jon · 22/03/2012 at 03:35

      Not a bad effort.

      chels · 22/03/2012 at 06:12

      so what? Don't you get it that this is a thread for those who think?

Emre · 22/03/2012 at 01:20

Are we going to see version 2 of each of your teams Jock?

Octopig · 22/03/2012 at 02:12

i once was blind but now i can see

you sit above the gods

cheers team

Philzsay · 22/03/2012 at 02:27

Interesting, some of the likely rookies are there.

Another factor I would have added would have been the number of Best 22 players available for round 1 of the players Club not playing in the respective Nab Cup match. But of course that would be subjective and not the point of the exercise.

The article does lock in Devon Smith for mine, and maybe give Kennedy a bit more thought.

Jon Jon · 22/03/2012 at 03:33

Top analysis Higgo – you have redeemed yourself from the SC scoring system fiasco 😀

Jon Jon · 22/03/2012 at 03:38

No love for Clifton in the analysis?

    Jon Jon · 22/03/2012 at 03:38

    BTW, I understand that he didn't make the list, I am just surprised, that's all.

    Where did he finish out of the mids?

Barney · 22/03/2012 at 07:13

Hi anybody want to join 'Bound For Glory' sc league 563803

JE · 22/03/2012 at 07:50

Below is taken from some (ahem) "other" fantasy site, created by someone nowhere near as legendary as Higgo! (Based on DT stats ONLY)

_______________________

Player: S.Clifton

Pos: Mid

Price: $121,800

DT Pts Per 100 min: 72

NAB 1 19

NAB 2 45

NAB 3 82

NAB 4 21

$ Per Pt: $1,699

Comp Rank: 61

JE · 22/03/2012 at 08:05

Looks like Masten is out for about the next 3-4 round with a broken jaw, according to Herald Sun Website:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/supercoach-news/c

Wonder if that will have fantasy coaches scrambling to bring in Koby Stevens?

SEFC · 22/03/2012 at 09:46

HI guys………… join supercoach champions league. league code is 956572

cheers

SEFC · 22/03/2012 at 09:54

Final spot in my back line up for grabs. LAKE or DEMPSEY?? $290,000 in the bank.

    Adam · 22/03/2012 at 20:07

    Lake

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