Did you hear about the constipated mathematician?
He worked it out with a pencil.
While I may not be constipated at the moment, I have been trying to move a few substantial issues from my subconscious. One such issue is the much anticipated result of the annual Carlton V Richmond slug fest. I have been looking at this game with an eye on the result, an eye on individuals Supercoach scores and, if I had a third eye, an eye on the all important 3300 Supercoach point scoring rule.
The Supercoach scoring system is far more complex, descriptive and interesting when compared to Dream Team scores. While players are credited basic possession points for acts during the game, the value of these acts are dependent on when and where they take place. On top of this, in any game of football, only 3300 points (give or take a few points for rounding errors) will be awarded across both teams. This system rewards match winning efforts and is normalized to make the average player score on the ground 75 – Statistically, a player scoring 150 has done the job of two.
With this 3300 rule in mind, winning teams are more likely to snatch the greater share of the 3300. While calculating the exact formula is impossible, modeling quarter by quarter statistics can give close projections. Burst players, the game turners like Judd and Rioli can cash in with 100+ scores with low possession games if their efforts helped the team to a win. A player like Dustin Martin in a team like Richmond seems a good fit for this model. Could the Tigers improved backine, under new Defensive Analyst – Ross Smith, make Richmond players a more attractive Supercoach option for you in 2012?
Here are some of my preliminary Carlton V Richmond scratchings based on Round 1, 2011 data.
Lessons to learn from Scratchings …..
- While a number of players from these two teams are attractive options to Supercoaches, please consider them in light of the shared Round 13 bye.
- While Carlton has been statistically dominant in recent years, Richmond has made some important trades that may help bridge this gap. Ivan Maric will prove a greater contest for Carlton’s Rucks, the new inclusions down back (Ellis & Morris) linked with the further development of Grimes, Batchelor and Rance may free up the likes of Newman and Deledio to have a greater impact in the middle and forward.
- The development of Martin and Cotchin, linked with the hardness of Tuck and possibly Newman in the middle may enable Richmond to go a bit further to matching Carlton’s superstar mids.
- If you believe that Richmond is a chance (I still have Carlton winning by 8 points), then expect BIG points from Cotchin, Deledio, Martin, Riewoldt and Newman.
Of course, looking at one game in isolation is foolish – Richmond have a very difficult early draw. However, given the 3300 rule, if you are predicting a break out year for the Tigers, like me, then there is every chance that they will have more than a few value for money picks.
One more consideration ……. The Big Boys Fresh Legs phenomenon.
Teams such as Carlton, Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn, teams that are likely to cement an early top 4 position, will most likely start to rest players. I predict this to be far more of an issue to Supercoaches in 2012. Each club now is driven more and more by their sports scientists, with player rotaotions and weeks off becoming “the norm”. Why would you play your guns when you are guaranteed a top 4 position anyway?
So in summary,
- Considering how teams will present and match-up in 2012 is important.
- Considering a team’s draw in conjunction with the 3300 rule will also be of enormous benefit to you when selecting your squad.
- When selecting from “the big boys”, consider also the increased prevalence of the fresh leg phenomenon.
Yours in statistical heaven,