Some may be surprised to learn that I am yet to sit down and seriously map out my 2012 Supercoach team. Of course I have been gathering information. Of course I am weighing up certain strategies. Of course I am trying to find the right Supercoach rookies. A few loose ends need to be considered before I begin in earnest.

One such consideration is “How will teams play in 2012?” Understanding how our game is changing enables you a greater  chance of picking an effective squad.

As I alluded to in this weeks podcast, a coach must understand how the Supercoach 2012 Scoring system will change;

It is important to note that the following three scoring statistics have changed from 2011;

  1. Clanger Kicks in 2011 resulted in a 4 point deduction, this year it is -8 points
  2. Clanger Handballs in 2011 resulted in a 4 point deduction, this year it is -6 points
  3. Free Kick Against in 2011 resulted in a 4 point deduction, this year it is -6 point

These scoring rules will have a negative impact on all scores – of course, more so on those players who are poor with disposal and who tend to give away free kicks.

After analysing the top 50 Supercoach players for 2011 and sorting them based on Clangers Per Game, some interesting insights can be gained;

Players whose scoring output will be least affected by scoring changes;

Players whose scoring output will most likely be affected by point system changes;

 

So a big tick for the top 10, however, some serious questions need to be asked when considering a selection from the bottom 10.

While Thompson, Mitchell, Selwood and Boyd will raise a few eyebrows, Franklin is extremely interesting. I would expect him to be the first forward selected for most teams. The pre-season talk of midfield time and an even bigger engine … I think we can mount a fair case as to why you shouldn’t pick him.

Franklin will be most affected by the new point scoring system. Not only will clangers steal points from his output, but the Frees Against penalties will also prove costly. Over the past five seasons Franklin has consistently ranked in the top few players in terms of frees-against, averaging 2.26 frees-against per game – equating to a 2012 weekly point loss of 13.56.

Last year’s winner, Jay To, won because he didn’t select Goddard. Could Franklin be the Goddard of 2012?

Now for some game trend research …..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of the three game basics – kicks, marks, handballs, interesting changes can be identified over the past decade.

Line A represents the first significant game shift. In 2005 the AFL introduced the “Chopping of Arms” free that resulted in a rise in marks. To balance this trend, in 2007 the AFL introduced the “hands in the back” rule which made key forwards less potent, defenders more so – marks and kicks decreased, handballs increased.

Line B represents the next big game shift. Flooding from Roos and Lyon started a trend in 2005 and 2006, which gave rise to zones, rolling zones and Clarko’s Cluster – all requiring quick “keepings off” handballing skills. In 2010, the game changed as more coaches adopted long kicking (greater than 50m) to break through these zones.

While Line A represents bad news for the forwards, Line B offers them some good news. Long kicking through zones means a return to the possibility of the forward being delivered a ball in a one-on-one competition.

How else has our game changed?

 

 

 

Tackles and Hitouts are increasing – supporting my thoughts that the most reliable Premium Locks can be found in the midfield and in the ruck.

Disposals may be on the slide. Is this a direct result of the AFL’s new sub rule? This may be a factor, however, again, it is more likely a result of the long kicking through zones. But what would happen if we went to a 2 – 2 sub rule? I think you could forecast this one.

Now, back to where I started on the Supercoach Point Scoring rules  …. Who is the ideal player for your team?

Someone who kicks more than handballs, is effective in their disposal, doesn’t give away free kicks, tackles and can kick goals. While this may sound obvious, it is well worth interrogating each of your squad members based on these five key point scoring factors.

There is no doubt that Fantasy Football has turned punters into serious football analysts. We are now closely looking at players from clubs we don’t support and looking at how teams “structure up”, it makes every team and every game infinitely more interesting. Fantasy Footy allows footy tragics with a tragic lack of footballing ability, like me,  to chase a flag.

In your flag chasing wisdom, where do you think the game will head this year? Which players do you think fit the mould?

Regards,

Peter Higginbotham


69 Comments

Hayden · 08/03/2012 at 01:52

Is this the same scoring system that was used in 2010?

Wellsy's Warrio · 08/03/2012 at 02:06

This is the best article on this website yet. Welldone Higgo. I see this years winner taking clangers, efficiency and frees against into consideration when selecting their initial team. I know I will be taking this strategy.

MJ · 08/03/2012 at 02:19

Higgo,

Have been dying to see this article since i got word of it in your Podcast Sunday night. I think it is fair to say this is the best info I have seen since Supercoach got up and running again this year. Superb stuff.

I had J. Selwood, Franklin and Fyfe all locked in and was seriously looking at Boyd too but now I have some serious thinking to do. Was very surprised not to see boyds name in the top supercoach players over the last wknd ( http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/supercoach-… ) but now it might make a bit more sense !!

Higgo can I ask you were can you get the efficiency stats or average clankers stats so I can have a look at how the rest my team shapes up. Would be interested to see some stats on

Swan, Murphy, Priddis, Goddard, Broughton, J Watson, Shaw, Sandilands and a few of my sneaky midpricers for good measure.

P.S Looking forward to your first real draft team, without smoke, mirrors and young red herring :p hope to see it soon 😀

    Chillimaster · 08/03/2012 at 04:11

    +1

    I felt that selwood was at a discount based on the injury round and his corresponding low score, now i'm not so sure.

    Very impressive stuff Higgo.

    Higgo · 08/03/2012 at 23:51

    Dear MJ,

    Firstly, thank you for your feedback across the website – it is great that we are attracting a sophisticated type to the forums.

    In response to your quieries, I will be posting up;

    1. Raw data spreadsheet

    2. Further explorations

    Given the name of the game is finding the best point-per-dollar players, this "clanger" research gives all coaches a better than average chances at getting it right this year.

    I am working on a formula that ranks all players based on a number of game factors (the new scoring system will be factored in) to try and highlight the best point-per-dollar prospects.

    Stay tuned,

    Peter Higginbotham

      MJ · 09/03/2012 at 00:23

      Higgo,

      Don't be thanking me, your the one giving away all that knowledge and insight, which is just gold. Look forward to this raw data sheet and even more so for the players ranking 😀

      On a side note any chance you guys will be setting up some jock reynolds public leagues so some of us guys on the forum can pit our wits against eachother and maybe even yourself, Jock and crouching ??

Roman · 08/03/2012 at 02:32

Fascinating Higgo. My rough cals would see Franklin average score for 2011, based on the new penalties, drop from 110.8 to 92.8. McEvoy's drop would be from 101.2 to 97.6 and yet he is 50K cheaper. Can a leopard change its spots??????????????

The Big Fella · 08/03/2012 at 03:15

Great Read Guys!

Don't think too many should look at this as confusing.

Keeping it simple, you want to load up on guys who's stats are dominated by the highest scoring ones, and shy away from those who have stats 'o plenty in the heartache column. A simple logic I have always adhered to. Having said that though, don't read this and pull the trigger straight away. At the end of the day, Sammy Mitchell will be going nowhere. He stays.

And once again Higgo, brilliant work – God forbid you actually put up something like this, incorporating your last piece of work at Premium Locks, and incorporating somehow a teams fixture. I reckon that would be like a "Back to the Future – Sports Almanac" type document.

Best SC site by far.

SupACoach · 08/03/2012 at 03:37

Wow. Fantastic article. Back to the drawing board on my team!!!

Thanks Peter

Mick · 08/03/2012 at 04:49

Hmmmmm nice thoughts great info but not sure if the full impact as described will be felt? My thought is in Supercoach they will average out a bit given the total points to be awarded each team each round and can also be mitigated by the other 35 stat areas that are points are relevant. But any deduction is one to be wary, thanks for the insights.

    Keffa · 08/03/2012 at 10:09

    35 stat areas? You mean 57?

Stuart · 08/03/2012 at 04:55

Great Higgo

Any chance of listing the top 50 for us to access it would be great.

Comment above re buddys score drop. A drop yes is right,but not to that extent

Ave was 110.8, with 4.11 clangers and kick hall ratio of 1.62

So roughly in clangers terms 2.51 kicks to 1.6 balls

With kicks -4 more penaltyand hball -2 more penalty

That's about -13.2 reducing buddy to 97.6

Mcevoy goes from 101.2 to about 98.4

So same answer, mcevoy does look more appealing than buddy under this rule

    Tracey-Lee · 08/03/2012 at 11:47

    Also do not forget where and when this comes into play, if Buddy gives away a FA or a HB/K clanger in dying seconds of the game or just before half time to put the other team in front. Massive losses.

Frank · 08/03/2012 at 05:07

What about the effect of the sub rule? Each match 2 players have less opportunity to score pts. I mean, it's hard to score fantasy points sitting on the bench for 3 quarters. So other players get those points. In SC, that's generally the most influential ones – premiums. I reckon this could negate the scoring changes for players like Buddy and Selwood who do their best work when the whips are cracking. So, will the best players continue to get better?

    Keffa · 08/03/2012 at 10:11

    A great point but the sub rule was in place last year also…… so last year's data can be used to consider and compare what might happen this year with the new scoring system

TJ · 08/03/2012 at 05:40

Hey Higgo,

Thanks for that!

Just wondering whether there is a place to get everyone's stats of there clangers and all that (the first picture you put up)…

Thanks again

Trent · 08/03/2012 at 06:14

Please help me out, Backs – Goddard, Scarlett, Taylor, Duigan, Grimes, B.Ellis, Bugg, Mohr and S.Morris. Midfielders – Ablett, Judd, Fyfe, Shuey, Hill, Wingard, Magner and Neale. Rucks – Naitanui, Mclintosh, Stephensen and Giles. Forwards – Johnson, Hawkins, Pavlich, Gray, Howe, Saad, Hall, Butcher and Cooyou. What do you think? Any advice would be greatly appreciated!

cooky · 08/03/2012 at 06:31

Nice work can anybody please have a look at my side any comments will be appreciated

DEF – GODDARD, HEATH SHAW, HEPPEL, LAKE, HARGRAVE, BUGG, DARLY, LUKE BROWN AND BAGUELY

MID –

ABLETT, MARC MURPHY, PRIDDIS, ZIEBELL, HAYES, EBERT,SAM REID, SAM GIBSON

RUCK – LEUNBURGER, MCINTOSH, GILES,STEPHENSON

FORWARD – FRANKLIN, MARTIN, J. RIEWOLDT,DANGERFIELD, ROHAN, PORPLYZIA,SMEDTS,COOYOO, HALL

I KNOW I AM RELYING ON MY ROOKIES TO DO WELL IN THE BACKLINE

Dan · 08/03/2012 at 07:47

Backs – Goddard, Deledio, Shaw, Hargrave, Clarke, Ellis, Smedts (Morris, Bugg)

Mids – Ablett, Murphy, Boyd, Rockliff, Mastin, Coniglio (Neale, Magner)

Rucks – Kruezer, Mcintosh ( Redden, Stephanson)

Forwards – Franklin, Fyfe, Martin, Zahakarakis, Butcher, Porplezia, Smith ( Cameron, Hall)

Give me info on my team!!

Jason · 08/03/2012 at 07:56

Great article – With Franklin been clanger prone he is likely to suffer allot with the new scoring system HOWEVER if he moves into the mid field and obtains more possessions isn't he likely to more than cancel the clangers?

For me the jury is still out and a bit more research needs to be done.

    Keffa · 08/03/2012 at 10:13

    Yeah Jase, I agree. Higgo needs to do some more research. Get cracking Higgo. And then share it with us for free when you're finished.

      cooky · 09/03/2012 at 07:55

      if you were to take out buddy who would you put in (already have martin, riewoldt, dangerfield)

Jason Thwaites via F · 08/03/2012 at 08:13

Great article – With Franklin been clanger prone he is likely to suffer allot with the new scoring system HOWEVER if he moves into the mid field and obtains more possessions isn’t he likely to more than cancel the clangers?
For me the jury is still out and a bit more research needs to be done.

Simon · 08/03/2012 at 09:27

Best info i have read yet. It would be good if you could update the list with the impact on each persons 2011 average and then rank them.

Tracey-Lee · 08/03/2012 at 11:07

Good stuff uncy Higgo. Was waiting for it 🙂

    Tracey-Lee · 08/03/2012 at 11:44

    Yeah and Franklin

    D 401

    DE 68%

    Clg 93

    GA 22

    and a FA of 53

    doesnt look to good for him aye.

    Thompson isn't any surprise either with a

    D 673

    DE 68%

    Clg 101

    GA 22

Tracey-Lee O'Br · 08/03/2012 at 11:43

Coach Clarke is set to put him in mid for around 5 mins per quarter don't think this will result in less frees againt

Tracey-Lee O'Br · 08/03/2012 at 18:19

Hey Higgo, I am trying to put the link to this on my page to give credit to you but I keep getting a database error??

    James · 08/03/2012 at 19:02

    Hi Tracey – seems all good now

      Tracey-Lee · 08/03/2012 at 19:58

      Yup all good now James 🙂

      Sorry for the spam posts everyone 🙁

        Jock · 08/03/2012 at 20:00

        Don't apologise mate – its tops to have you on the site Tracey-Lee.

        BB · 09/03/2012 at 07:59

        At least the system doesn't actually think you are spam 😛

Tracey-Lee O'Br · 08/03/2012 at 19:54

Nevermind its working now 🙂

Ivan · 08/03/2012 at 22:43

Are they the only points to change ?? I thought u only got 6 points for a goal last yr ? Also was surprised lose ball n hard ball gets same points wasn't contested possession more ??

Hairy · 08/03/2012 at 23:03

Hi Jock, Higgo, and Master Crouching

I hope you don't mind, but Higgo inspired me to love stats.

I have backed up all of the 2011 player stats for the AFL in a MS Excel file.

The link is a free file host site.

http://www.freespace.com.au/filehosting/369430

If you disapprove please remove this post.

Regards,

Hairy

    MJ · 09/03/2012 at 09:08

    Hairy, that's scary how much time you must have put in for that spreadsheet – great work mate, have it downloaded and saved away – now back to picking a team 🙂

      Hairy · 09/03/2012 at 21:32

      I was able to use the in conjunction with the SC scores last year to determine what each players score in 2011 would have been with the new scoring rules.

Carlos · 09/03/2012 at 04:56

Hey guys can you please rate my team

DEF: B. Goddard, H. Shaw, G. Birchall, J. Carlisle, B. Lake, B. Smedts, B. Wilkes (J. Townsend, L. Brown)

MID: G. Ablett jnr, M. Murphy, N. Fyfe, B. Deledio, D. Martin, D. Shiel (L. Neale, J. Magner)

RUC: M. Leuenberger, H. McIntosh (J. Giles, O. Stephenson)

FWD: L. Franklin, S. Johnson, M. Pavlich, P. Dangerfield, A. Tomlinson, J. Cameron, A. Hall (A. Treloar, T. Couch)

CASH LEFT: $18,000

Jason McMahon via Fa · 09/03/2012 at 06:53

You've lost ya marbles !"Higgo"… take a rest chase some crumpet

Jason McMahon via Fa · 09/03/2012 at 06:58

do one on how the offensive scoring system has changed just to confuse the Dust outa everyone , like a center clearance uncontested is the same as contested now ,, put that in ya Priddis & smoke it lol !. thanks btw good work 🙂

Jason McMahon via Fa · 09/03/2012 at 07:02

this rule effects every one like the bloke that ya'll pick instead goes commando & gives away an extra few frees in few weeks trying bust open a zone ,,, Absurd buddy this buddy that …

Jacob Cecil via Face · 09/03/2012 at 07:16

Great work higgo! Keep up the awesome work! F.Y.I , keep up the improvement on your jokes, some of them are rippas!

chels · 09/03/2012 at 07:45

thought provoking Higgo. I wonder if we shouldn't think where the lost points are going to go – the total points per game remains the same (3300?); so some should gain the lost points. So don't the average points become contingent on this impact and your top ten (or so) should gain some redistributed points?

BTW, why does every thread disintegrate into a please rate my team thread? Cannot readers concentrate long enough on a thread to consider what is offered without mindlessly seeking feedback about their team? They miss the point that it is close to ridiculous to suggest anybody's team is finalised already.

    The Big Fella · 09/03/2012 at 08:13

    Infact, a permanent "Rate My Team" thread would not only handle this mostly, but would again be interesting reading. Seeing some sides from evolve over the course of the NAB Cup could give outside the box SuperCoachers a leg up I reckon!

    MJ · 09/03/2012 at 09:04

    Chels if there was a like buttom beside your comment i would have clicked it 😀

chels · 09/03/2012 at 20:06

thanks The Big Fella and MJ, good to know the frustration is not mine alone. I think at DTTalk they at around 5000 comments on the rmt threads – i suspect there are a lot of multi posts constantly seeking attention.

Yep, i reckon a separate rmt thread would work well

Jon Jon · 09/03/2012 at 20:37

THIS IS WRONG!

From my research, the points system has not changed at all from 2011 – for proof just look at the history of the Supercoach page on wikipedia, and compare the scoring tables in 2011, to 2012.

BEWARE OF DODGY INFORMATION ON THIS SITE…

Jon Jon · 09/03/2012 at 20:40

Note, as well as this article from 2011…

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2011/

Jon Jon · 09/03/2012 at 20:41

Correct me if I am wrong Higgo, but before we all go changing our teams based on the scoring changes you have advised, we need to see proof that the changes you have told us are true…

STUART · 09/03/2012 at 22:15

Jon Jon,

I'd check your facts (from more than Wikipedia) for 2011 before shooting off at the mouth like that and shooting down Higgo and Jock.

I'd love to be proven wrong, however my reseach supports the Higgo analysis.

2011 Points (although not all):

Effective Kick 4 Points

Inffective Kick 0 Points

Clanger -4 Points

Long Kick to adv. 7 Points

Backwards Kick 1 Point

Uncontested mark from teammate 2 Points

Uncontested mark from opposition 4 Points

Contested mark from teammate 6 Points

Contested mark from opposition 8 Points

Mark on lead 5 Points

Tackle 4 Points

Free Kick against -4 Points

Changes:

Clanger Kick -8 Points (-4 last year)

Clanger Handball -6 Points (-4 last year)

Free Kick Against -6 Points (-4 last year)

Jock, Higgo, Anyone else, Do you agree??

    Jon Jon · 09/03/2012 at 22:40

    Dear STUART,

    What source do you base your research from?

    If you can show a site or a verifiable source that proves those figures and I will hold my hands up and apologise.

    Your last post didn't show any sources though, just your opinion.

    In the meantime, I refer you to both the 2011 article from the Geelong Advertiser, and my point regarding the historical editions of Wikipedia -that support my point.

    After searching high and low on google, these two places were the only I could find that actually detailed last year's points scoring system, and neither agree to Higgo's article.

      MJ · 09/03/2012 at 23:52

      Interesting .. it does say that the clanger kick was -8 last year and the clanger handball was -6 .. scratching the old head now I am :/

DC · 09/03/2012 at 22:45

Despite reports to the contrary #supercoach scoring is unchanged from 2011 Source: Al Paton – Twitter (Herald Sun Super Footy)

STUART · 09/03/2012 at 23:17

ok ,so does this mean that I am wrong, all this Higgo analysis is wrong and last year was -8 and not -4 for clanger kick (despite 2011 rules stating otherwise)

Jon Jon,

Very happy to be wrong, just want the facts.

FYI- My numbers on the clangers came from the 2011 Supercoach Site: In Help- Point Scoring Section.

So it seems that we have been misinformed last year or this year..

I am plain confused now.

Any thoughts from others.?

    Jon Jon · 09/03/2012 at 23:39

    No worries mate – I probably was a bit OTT with saying that this information is dodgy, but I was a bit p!ssed off because I did a whole heap of analysis, only to find out that the basis for that analysis was probably wrong in the first place!

    Either way, I don't think I will be picking Buddy regardless!!!

Smelly Pete · 10/03/2012 at 05:22

Taken from Supercoach Website today (Friday 9 March)

Effective kick 4 Points

Ineffective kick 0 Points

Clanger kick -4 Points

Effective Handball 1.5 Points

Ineffective handball 0 Points

Handball clanger -4 Points

Handball receive 1.5 Point

Hardball get 4.5 Points

Loose-ball get 4.5 Points

Goal 8 Points

Behind 1 Point

Mark uncontested (maintain possession) 2 Points

Mark contested (maintain possession) 6 Points

Mark uncontested (from opposition) 4 Points

Mark contested (from opposition) 8 Points

Tackles 4 Points

Free kick for 4 Points

Free kick against -4 Points

Hitout to Advantage 3 Points

The Evil Rabbit · 10/03/2012 at 05:50

I'd like to offer a possible THEORY on what's happened here.

Last year, frees against, and clangers were all worth -4. This was a LATE CHANGE to the scoring system, so the Geelong Advertiser article from Jon Jon was accurate on the 1st of Feb 2011.

This change was somewhere mid-march.
http://tooserious.net/changes-to-the-supercoach-f

To add to the confusion, I think the Supercoach site accidentally posted 2010's scoring system initially. (Possibly where Higgo got his info?) They seem to have fixed the issue now, as correct values are displayed (Thanks Smelly Pete above).

I think there has been NO CHANGE to the scoring system. It was -4 this year, and it will be this year.

Thoughts on this theory?

The Evil Rabbit · 10/03/2012 at 05:51

Typo:

It was -4 *LAST year

The Big Fella · 10/03/2012 at 06:30

Well you'd think that with all the SC "Gold" Subscriptions and $2.95 Apps that have been downloaded that are chocka block full of ads, they might be able to pay some fruit loop to update the website correctly.

Still – Love the effort that Higgo puts into his research.

Smelly Pete · 10/03/2012 at 11:33

As Richie Benaud would say, "Top shot for nought".

Slippery Pete · 10/03/2012 at 12:09

Ah dear, what a balls up!

Definitely not Higgo's fault.

BTW, 'people' who hijack threads like these with their rate my team rants are selfish noobs who should be hung.

Having said that, can you guys please give me some feedback about my rucks……. ha ha, Jokes!

Slippery Pete · 10/03/2012 at 12:21

Guys can I please have some feedback about this team?

Def: Kelvin Moore, Nathan Brown, Hal Hunter, Josh Tynan, Mark Whiley, Tim Mohr, Lee Spurr (Sam Frost/Tom Gillies)

Mids: Ben Speight, Ben Sinclair, Matthew Shaw, Aaron Mullett, Josh Cowan, Nathan Gordon (Lin Jong/Wawrick Andreoli)

Rucks: Jack Fitzpatrick, Ryan Bathie (Sam Grimley/Jared Redden)

Forwards: Scott Gumbleton, Terry Milera, Jai Sheahan, Blake Bray, Anton Hamp, Rohan Kerr, Jed Lamb (Kelvin Lawrence/Viv Mitchie)

I have $6.78 million remaining….

I've been working on it for ages so would appreciate any feedback. Tear it to shreds lads!

luke · 10/03/2012 at 21:18

Love the team slippery Pete!!! A Mullet would have to be the standout there… Haha

Even though you may have been mislead with scoring system Higgo, i appreciate the ground work you're puting in…

Any chance you can post some DT averages or more stats from NAB cup? Mainly interested in the rookies. Cheers

Brenno · 10/03/2012 at 21:19

Hi all…

Please rate my team and I dont mind honesty.

Backs: Goddard H Shaw Birchall Broughton Hargrave Ellis S Shaw Darley Yagmoor

Mids: Ablett Swan Murphy Neale J Mcdonald Magner Pfeiffer Gibson

Rucks: Mumford Kruezer Giles Redden

Forwards: Franklin Fyfe Martin Sylvia Zarharakis Porp D Smith Smetds Newton.

What do you think?

Higgo · 10/03/2012 at 22:46

Dear All,

Firstly, I feel deeply apologetic for misleading all with what I thought to be a key statistical leverage point for the 2012 SC season. My research was based on data drawn from the SC website so I felt confident in its accuracy – obviously, this was an incorrect assumption.

Fear not – my excel spreadsheets have been corrected and I feel that my next article will be more than make up for this "clanger" of an article.

P.Higginbotham = -4 points

Regards,

Peter Higginbotham

    We were all fooled · 10/03/2012 at 23:57

    Don't worry Higgo, you weren't the only one to be mislead. There's a few of us who poured a bit of time into analyzing the impacts of the 'new' changes, only to find out nothing had in fact changed.

Josh · 10/03/2012 at 22:47

What is the exact definition for a clanger kick or handball

    We were all fooled · 10/03/2012 at 23:59

    A blatant turnover I think. Check out the CD website. I believe it was Ted Hopkins who coined the phrase. I'd like to know if a clanger under pressure is treated the same way as a no pressure clanger. I doubt it.

Comments are closed.