Supercoach 2012 – Premium Lock Considerations
Here is some more GOLD fresh from the study of Maths and Stats man Peter “Higgo” Higginbotham;
While we would all consider a player’s average point score to be vital, in my opinion, the standard deviation is just as important.
A standard deviation gives us an accurate measure of consistency – the smaller the value, the more predictable a player’s output. Picking players with low standard deviations gives me greater confidence in predicting my teams expected weekly score.
As you can see, Priddis, Murphy and Deledio are standouts. They played every game in 2011, each with averages above 100 and each with low standard deviations that tell us that they are highly consistent scorers around their averages. Pendlebury must also be considered given his huge average, but do we need to consider price in our decision also?
Of course! The name of the game is getting the best value for money isn’t it? But when it comes to premium locks, I tend to forget about the spend. I want a player that I can “set and forget”. But buying slightly cheaper premium locks will free up cash for a slightly more predictable mid-pricer …..
Let’s assume now that our player outputs through 2011 were normally distributed (or bell shaped). If this was the case then we have 84% likelihood that a player will score greater than their average less one standard deviation – what I have called the LOCK VALUE.
Very interesting! On inspection at this stage I will be locking Priddis, Murphy, Deledio, Scotland and picking a few more from lower in the table. Sheils looks like a safe, yet potentially unique pick and Boak, Suckling and Kerr appear to be great value locks.
While my analysis continues (with factors such as age, team and injury considerations), I will stop the article here.
The point that must be emphasised is that success in Supercoach does not come from luck, but from careful squad selection based on in-depth numerical analysis. Adherence to the mathematics behind the game gives you just the edge you may need to crack into the top 1000 this season.
Isn’t maths fun!