By resident Stats and Maths legend Peter ‘Higgo’ Higginbotham…
Jock’s Locks, the Premium must have players in Supercoach 2012 have been spruiked all over town. It is time now to reveal what I believe to be the make-or-break component of your Supercoach team; The Mid-Pricers (players priced between $200,000 and $500,000)
In this article I hope to predict which mid-priced players may be worth taking a calculated punt on in season 2012. Last year we saw the emergence of players such as Luenburger, Fyfe and Goldstein, but how could one predict this year’s break-out players. A more important initial question may be this; Why would a coach go for a mid-pricer when there are so many potential gun rookies to pick from this year?
The answer is simple – you get what you pay for. What I want is a player in my original squad that can average over 85 and will be in my side for the finals. It is very rare for a rookie to fit these criteria. Rookies are cash making tools used to trade in more reliable and higher point scorers over the course of the season. Too many rookies in your squad will force your hand into using too many of your trades, too early in the season. The cash made from trading in a well performed rookie often goes straight into converting your sub 85 point mid-pricers to premiums.
A well balanced team should aim to hit the 10:10:10 ratio, or the 10 cubed theory as I introduced in podcast 2 – that is 10 rookies/10 mid-pricers/10 Premiums. This can easily be checked using my Team analysis tool – The Higginator, and this strategy gives your team a good chance of having 15 Round 1 players that will be there during the finals time. The other half of your squad will be used strategically to trade up, trade down and to cover injuries, hopefully ending up with a full squad of 30 reliable, 85+ point scorers.
So forget about saving money in your trade kitty, spend up big to ensure you have the best team you can get, a team with as many potential guns that will be there at the end.
Here is my list of mid-pricers that I will be keeping a very close eye on over the NAB Cup …. And remember, I don’t guess, as a mathematician I draw conclusions based on careful observation, statistical analysis and insight.
True defenders generally are low point scorers so try to avoid jumping on perceived bargains such as Kelvin Moore. I expect most backlines to go for the Rookie-Gun structure this year. However, here are a few to keep an eye on;
- LAKE, Brian $286,900 Very much dependent on NAB Cup form.
- CONNORS, Daniel $269,200 At this price he is a “must pick” if he can make the 22. Prior to injury and a Sydney brawl, Connors point scoring ability had him at keeper status.
- TUOHY, Zach $259,100 Irish experiment about to commence third season. Has already shown enough. Expect further improvement and a regular spot in Carlton’s line-up.
- DEA, Matthew $230,400 May have a new role as running half-back. Cotchin talked him up as a pre-season flyer.
Plenty of potential bargains that I have culled down to just 8. At the top of my list I am placing “the swingers” (dual position players). If you are going to take a risk on a mid-pricer, it is best to minimize this risk with a swinger.
- MONFRIES, Angus (FWD) $451,500 Has bulked up and is working at a higher level this year.
- DANGERFIELD, Patrick (FWD)$435,400 Has worked hard on his endurance ….. ready to take it to the next level.
- DIDAK, Alan (FWD) $336,100 Played injured in 2011, about to turn 29. There is still some point scoring magic left in those legs.
- BARLOW, Michael $453,600 Barlow or Hayes?
- HAYES, Lenny $422,000
- BASTINAC, Ryan $377,200 Third season breakout expected.
- LUCAS, Kane $223,900 Can he crack into the Blues midfield? Expect many more games in 2012.
Expect many to go for 1 premium, 3 rookie structure this year. But there is one worth a punt;
- MCINTOSH, Hamish $364,300
- RIEWOLDT, Jack $441,600 Not Nick, Jack. Better value and hopefully will play without injury this year.
- BROWN, Jonathan $397,900 Definitely in. May cost you a trade if injury strikes, but I expect him to be a big point scorer early in the season.
- FASOLO, Alexander $348,900 Super efficient point scorer ready to go another level.
- MORTON, Mitch $302,400 Expect him to be a big part of Sydney’s new forward structure –SCG suits his game.
- BATE, Matthew $294,300 Having an excellent pre-season.
- ROHAN, Gary $293,500 Ready for breakout, nice little plug from Inside Football and Mike Pike.
- PORPLYZIA, Jason $229,600 Pre-season flyer, at this price will be in a lot of teams.
While it is too early to worry too much about your final squad, now is the time to start taking note of any players who may have good reason to play above there starting price. Hopefully, like me you will keep adding to your player data bases so come Round 1 lockout you can select a squad that minimises risk and maximises your chances for Supercoach success.
Please add any further insights that you may have as it will help me with the data gathering process.