Rookie Price Projections: Supercoach Investment 101

Filed in Supercoach 2018, Supercoach rookies, Talking Strategy by on 13/03/2018 • views: 30553

Rookies may be some of the most important selections you can make to start your Supercoach year. Picking good ones can be the difference between quick upgrades to premium performing players and languishing with under-performing players because you don’t have enough cash to afford to buy the best of the best.

There’s a lot of different strategies that go into picking rookies, some like to buy the most expensive ones possible, the idea being the higher the draft pick, the better the player and thusly the better their point scoring  and/or cash generation potential.

Rookies are always difficult because you have to play the limited hands you’re given, we’ve got a small crop of guys who play every year, even smaller is the crop of rookie priced players who will play from Round 1!

The #1 purpose for rookies is generating cash. The longer you have a rookie in your side, the longer you’re going with under-performing scores compared to what a premium player can provide.

What we’re looking for is the old “more bang for your buck” options, we want to pick players who can generate the most cash possible, but how do we do that?

The obvious answer is find a rookie who can score the most points, price be damned, and they’ll be the best choice for making money. But is that the case? For example, let’s take a look at two backline options for us last year in the #1 pick Andrew McGrath and the #40 pick in Tom Stewart and see how they performed, both in points scored and cash generated over their first 10 games of AFL football.

So we can see despite McGrath performing better on field, Stewart has actually generated a higher profit based on his lower starting price, with Stewarts return on his investment more than twice as high as McGraths.

The advantage McGrath has given us on field is on average an extra 15 points on field, but this becomes irrelevant if the player is left on the bench. The “Downgrade $” is if we then sold them for a regular rookie priced player priced at $123,900, which McGrath comes ahead in, but only because of the higher initial investment.

The above is also a “best case” scenario of picking an ultra premium rookie because McGrath scored very well in Supercoach for a first year player. But what happens if someone like McGrath scored along similar lines as Tom Stewart, or even worse than he did? Well, we have an example of that from last year with Hugh McCluggage.

So with McCluggage, we’ve been provided with neither usable scores thanks to his average of 50 SCPoints, nor have we been given much of a return on our initially high investment, with a profit of just $57K to show after 10 games of football. He’s essentially been a waste of a pick. We can also then go look at what happens if we still picked a poor scoring rookie, but one at the lower end of the price scale, like Will Hayward for example?

As you can see, we’ve still almost doubled the profit we would have made from McCluggage, while over tripling our ROI, with Haywards ROI on an average of 50 SCPoints still higher than McGrath’s on an average of 75 SCPoints.

So as we can see, the safety is in picking cheaper rookies, even if they fail to set the world on fire, an average of 50 SCPoints over 10 weeks will still generate you a higher return on your investment than the more expensive options.

If you had of bought both McGrath and McCluggage last year, your initial outlay would have been $414,600, while a Stewart/Hayward combo would cost you $239,100, a difference of $175,500. Your profit from Stewart/Hayward would net you $289,500, while McGrath and McCluggage gains you $213,500.

In the “best case” scenario on premium rookies last year, you would have grabbed the #1 and #2 picks for your starting squad in Andrew McGrath and Tim Taranto, where pairing them together against the Stewart/Hayward combo gets you.

Again, even with two top performing ultra premium rookies, their ROI is still woefully short of the cheaper pair, while you’re pulling an extra $180,000 out of your starting squad to grab the more expensive options for just an extra $27,700 profit and an average of 35 points per game (if you started them).

And in another “what if”, if you replace an underperforming Hayward with a cheaper rookie who scored very well in Sam Powell-Pepper? The results tip even further ahead for the cheaper options.

We’ve now actually eclipsed the more expensive option in profits by $53,700, while spending $166,500 less to start with, and we’ve almost doubling the ROI with the cheaper option.

Now, even with all this it doesn’t mean you should automatically exclude all the expensive options because as we said before, you have to play the rookies you’re given, but we need to understand the risks that come with selecting higher priced options, ones that are less prevalent with cheaper selections, who will still generate money for you, even if the scores aren’t there.

This isn’t to say you should completely ignore the Paddy Dow’s of the world, someone like Andrew McGrath was a good selection last year, but it’s good to think of the overall picture and know that downgrading  from an ultra premium rookie selection in order to boost your cash reserves to improve to premium players elsewhere won’t mean you need to necessarily risk your sides ability to both generate cash and score points.

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Comments (191)

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  1. Derek says:

    Nice write BVC.

    I might have said this a few times already, there are only two types of (starting) players;

    1) Keepers
    2) money makers

    We need to aim for $13mil at the byes.

    I much prefer the Money Makers to make their money faster, and the cheapies do that very well.

    I do like the ROI calculation, love it.

    Where it gets tricky is that little gap between our keepers and the safety of the Bench. Usually around D4-6, M6-8, F5-6. The players who you want to do a bit of both, score and make money.

    If these guys happen to be Simpkin, Pickett, Menapoo, Berry types, your season might be over before it starts.

    Even worse, if one or more of your keepers miss games early on, and behold your bench players are needed. Doubly important to pick reliable keepers ahead of any with doubt.

    I think we need 6-7 onfield rookies to start this year and when all that is over we need at least another 6-7 upgrades as the season goes.

    Nice article Barron.

    • BarronVonCrow says:

      "Where it gets tricky is that little gap between our keepers and the safety of the Bench. Usually around D4-6, M6-8, F5-6. The players who you want to do a bit of both, score and make money."

      Exactly right, Derek, which is part of why I wrote this, since I saw so many teams going in with 3-4 high priced rookies in the midfield and maybe even 1 or 2 in the backline with the expectation that they'd automatically be the best options. Guys like McCluggage on the high scale and SPP and Witherden on the lower end showed us that's not true. At the very least, if you picked a Jy Simpkin or a Menapoo over a McCluggage you'll still earn some cash out of the deal.

      It's very hard to have any sort of set rules cause as we said, you gotta play what's in front of you. Based on pre-season form I'd have no issues selecting Brayshaw for example, but if shy away from LDU.

      Thanks for reading and thanks for the feedback, Derek.

      • Derek says:

        Every year there is at least one obvious cheap rookie. This year I thought it would be Higgins and Ahern, early on I thought it was the forward line where the rookies would be.

        • INPieman says:

          Of all the clubs Higgins could land at it had to be the one bloated with small pressure forwards. Ahern coming off consecutive ACL's needs some VFL matches. Blessing is disguise. I don't want to watch Norf games. They will suck

        • Josh says:

          Amazing how the landscape can change. Like you I thought fwd line was where money could be Made.

          Pre JLT I had d.smith at F2 and Shaw at D5! Now after watching the pre season games and considering who is likely to get a round 1 berth I now have Savage at D3 and Petraca at F4.

          Hectic season with a lack of DP players and an awkward mix of aging premos and, not quite there yet/is this their year, young fellas. Never made so many and such drastic changes to my team pre round 1, gonna be a interesting ride…

  2. Sana says:

    Wow! Thanking you Mr von Crow! Food for thought…

    • BarronVonCrow says:

      Thanks for reading, Sana. Hope you got something out of it.

      • Sana says:

        Yeah mate, you’ve convinced me to settle down on those higher priced rookies. Though the number of cheapies named will dictate in the end

  3. IntelDesign says:

    How about some making mad ca$h leagues?

    It's dead quiet.

    Any feelers out there?

  4. INPieman says:

    Nice work BVC. The only rookie I saw that absolutely justified his elevated price tag was Andrew Brayshaw. Huge tank, gets the pill & uses it well. Lock! As for the rest Naughton perhaps. Might be worth paying a little extra for a kid they will want early games into. And Coffield if we don't get the cheapies we are hoping for. Cam Rayner has not made an appearance in my team. Can't believe so many picked him. The evidence of his last beep test has been burnt & buried. He's going to sit in the forward pocket. And for 200k no thanks. You'll make a lot more out of Fritch & Ryan if they stay on the park

    • The Ranger says:

      I have Coffield, Naughton and Stephenson at the moment Pieman.
      Coffield and Stephenson as much for their DPP status.
      Gotta be flexible in those first couple of rounds so that when the inevitable cheap rookie that you hadn't even bloody considered pops up you can swap things around to get them in.

  5. Lekdog says:

    You bloody smart

  6. ado says:

    thoughts on david lloyd from GWS, and tom Bell from Brisbane? Both cheap-ish forwards who both scored well in JLT. cheers

    • ado says:

      daniel lloyd***

    • Tyruddanaut says:

      Yeah, I’ve been looking at Lloyd purely because of his JLT score. As for Bell, his elevated price is not justifiable and the money should go somewhere else, like Uber premiums in the midfield and mid-level rookies (130-200k)

    • CalebCripps922 says:

      I currently have Tom Bell at F4 looked good in JLT and for me has replaced Christensen just not sold on the forward rookie options to have on field

  7. Russel says:

    Gday mate, really liking the looks of tom bell, i havent seen much about lloyd but I think Tom bell will be an excellent pick up, very cheap

    • Carl says:

      For a rookie he’s not cheap at all? He won’t be a premo fwd as you’ll likely trade him out at some point during the year.

  8. Wade says:

    Points are points though. No good playing someone on the field if they are lucky to average 50 even if the ROI is higher

    • BarronVonCrow says:

      Absolutely, that's just an example of a worse case scenario and how a 50 from someone priced 117K will still give you something that a 200K rookie wont.

      • Duffer says:

        Worse case scenario is losing their spot in the team. Looking at this years rookies the gamble seems less about how much they score and more if they will stay in the team.

        50 average is only good if they're allowed to keep playing!

        • The Ranger says:

          Spot on Duffer. I can see donuts in the fwd line at this rate….not one rookie is guaranteed a spot at the moment.

  9. Wood says:

    Ok so it's no secret that where we are all at Is confident with Def and Mid rookies available but finding it difficult to fill up to 5 Fwd rookie spots with no clear standouts so far. What's everyone else thinking of going with ?

    • INPieman says:

      Anyone that starts with 5 forward rookies will be in a world of pain. 3 maximum. Probably 2 is better. But it stuffs structure

      • Wood says:

        Sorry. Should have made it clear. Have 4 premium forwards sorted so won't have 5 Fwd rookies starting on the ground. I I meant 2 on the field and 3 on the bench. So a total of 5 spots to fill.

        • INPieman says:

          Only 8 spots in the forward line. So 4 premos would mean 4 rookies to fill. All good Wood. Some show hosts have struggled with counting how many players are on each line

          • Wood says:

            Christ !!! looking more and more stupid with each comment so far. How hard is it to count to 8. So I have Buddy – Heeney – Greene – Dev Smith and am just struggling with the remaining 4 spots

            • INPieman says:

              Fritsch Ryan & Fogarty maybe. It's not flash

              • midpricemadness says:

                why not make fwd line more of an upgrade line and do petracca, jack, robinson, Christensen, deledio if can get on park…etc instead of rookies? rob jack lids can all do tons, Christ petrac could aswell..

                • Wood says:

                  That's as high risk as it gets. Could be curtains by round 5 if they don't work. I'm leaning to the forwards as the line to stack with premos more and more now.

              • TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

                Hoping fogarty gets a go rd 1. Only on field rookie.
                Fritsch and crowden on bench.
                Whereas naughton, doodee, murray in def with finalyson and murphy on bench.

            • Finnius says:

              Stephenson?

              • Wood says:

                Can play. Job security the big question mark with him though in a pies side having a lot midfield depth.

    • Russty_ says:

      I'm aiming for none onfield in the forward line, or maybe 1.

      • Wood says:

        Could be the way to go… very little stand outs in the pre season for the forward bargain department

    • Marty says:

      Starting with one forward rookie only

  10. Carl says:

    Great article BVC. Very thought provoking indeed. Nownof you can ask a few coaches to pick some of these cheaper rookies that would be greatly appreciated 🙂

  11. Tim says:

    Thoughts on going with Nic Nat? Theres just no really good R2 imo, yes theres grundy, jacobs, krezuer but no standouts like Gawn. Ryder is great but that bye is a killer is gunna cost you a donut! So was thinking Nic nat could be a good risk to get to Ryder

    • Derek says:

      The round 10 bye will keep everyone away from a Ryder, will make him a good POD. Worry about it in 9 weeks.

    • Steeeve says:

      I'll consider him if he's named. Doesn't need much of the ball to score. Expecting him to average 80-odd to start the year but will save a trade.

      Main reason being I don't like any of the other ruck options outside of Maxy boy either

    • Josh says:

      Agree with Derek re Ryder, if your going for overall rank. If the big spend in the ruck suits your structure then provided he stays fit will play the same amount of games as any other ruckman and is imo much less of a risk then likes of Nic Nat. The byes this year are going to be tough for everyone where they seemed to pile the less fantasy relevant teams into round 12 and the most into round 14, going to be very hard to field 18 good scorers. Having Ryder for r13 and r14 will put you in good stead so will being able to save the trade or trades you would need to get him in after round 10.

    • Northerner says:

      No talk for Goldy. I think good chance he’s solo. 80 on weekend for first half before handing over to Pruess. May be pod shark move.

      Currently have Nank in my team as he looked fit, fast and hungry – and he has an awesome midfield group to shark his ruckwork. But Goldy is emerging as nice pod move. Rucks will be season defining agiain.

    • CalebCripps922 says:

      I'm just worried about Nic Nat not getting on the park say he's a late out one game then your in strife so i've gone with Nank looks great in JLT and is solo ruck

  12. Steeeve says:

    Great article. Has me reallllly re-thinking my M7 M8 combo of A Brayshaw and W Brodie.

    I could use the extra cash too…

    Come on cheap rookies, please be named!!!

    • Derek says:

      rookies get more opportunity in weaker teams

      Forward rookies, ie Simpkin in the week teams not a good idea, probably stay away from Christensen, raynor, Ryan, venables

  13. Phildev says:

    Great write up Barron. I always enjoy a good maths lesson.

  14. Graeme says:

    With the round 1 rolling lock out should you stack your side with west coast and Sydney rookies and replace them during the round once team sheets are finalised?

  15. Tyruddanaut says:

    I may have been dropped on the head as a baby, but that shouldn’t have made me dumb enough to consider Mason Cox, should it. Oh wait, I was dropped twice maybe that’s why.

    Mason Cox for R3? Thoughts?

    • INPieman says:

      R3 that's madness. Maybe a F5-6 with a DPP donut man to swing & cover a dodgy ruck like Lycett or Simpson. That's probably the only way you can make a case for him. Can't see him making much money

      • Derek says:

        His job security is pretty solid.

        He had a monster score in JLT playing against a rookie, but this year it shouldn’t be discounted. $300k is not a bad price. But no.

    • SCdonkey says:

      So tempted of sliding him in at F6 and have Ryder at R2. Like what Derek he has a solid JS, Buckley is looking to play him more this season.

      • Patch says:

        Buckley will play him every game, but can see him dropping three weeks of 60s. At 200k I'd lock him in, 250k I'd think about but at over 300k… no thanks.

        He had a 145 but he was playing on a rookie some 20cm shorter than him… BUT if it works for your structure go for it – if I shut down every POD I saw everyone would have my side and my side's awful.

        • SCdonkey says:

          Was just a thought, could work in my structure if have I Ryder at R2 having Cox at F6 until Round 10 to cover for Ryder, I'm not expecting him belt out 80-100 points every game. Purely for bye and lack of rookies with JS up forward. Agree if he was 200K i wouldn't even be thinking about it, he'll be locked in for sure.

          Having him at F6 and constantly getting that 60+ points until round 10 means you're saving a whole lot of trade as to having rookies with poor JS which you will trade out not once maybe twice heck may even have to do 3 times.

  16. AdoM says:

    Great article! Backs up my thoughts that you could only go with 2 maybe 3 top priced rookies between $150k and $200k. Brayshaw, Brodie, naughton or coffield would be the only ones I'd go near depending on the lineups. Bloody hell it's a tough year to get your structure right.

    • David says:

      Completely agree that those are the four expensive rookies that are a valid choice. Personally I want as few of them as possible. Only have Brodie right now

  17. The Ranger says:

    Love ya work Barron, A very timely article.

  18. rickthegenius says:

    Gday Community! Im looking to go into leagues that have any spots available as im currently only in one. I finished top 700 2 years ago and top 1000 last year. Cheers.

    • Donald Drumpf says:

      G’day Genius. Got 2 &50 leagues if ur interested. Codes are 874007 & 426722. Cheers mate.

      • Donald Drumpf says:

        Thats $50 leagues! 💵

        • rickthegenius says:

          Gday Donald, I didn’t see your second message in my email when I joined your leagues. I was unaware that it was a 50$ entry. Please remove me. Cheers.

        • rickthegenius says:

          Actually mate, i’ve changed my mind, however i’m only willing to participate in one of the leagues. Vheers

      • Cramit says:

        hi Donald Im keen to join one of the leagues

  19. Post_MaSloane says:

    What did we do to deserve you Mr von Crow?

  20. Tyruddanaut says:

    Hey Baz, how does the potential price work, because last time I checked a 44 avg doesn't put you up to 500,000

    • Barron Von Crow says:

      Potential price is based on a players SC average and how many points per minute they scored from the JLT expanded out to playing a full game time of 80% ToG because a lot of rookies may only get 20%-60% on ground during these games because of the extended benches. Someone like Lachie Murphy for example only averaged 61% ToG during the series, but we know with a 4 man interchange and rotation limits he'd likely play 75%-80% of a game if he's selected.

  21. Leigh says:

    Might be a dumb question boys but can you please enlighten me as to what an ROI is?

    • Defying_Madness says:

      Return on investment

    • INPieman says:

      To ideally get a value of 14 million for your team you follow this rule…..

      Return on Investment (ROI) is the ratio between the net profit and cost of investment resulting from an investment of some resource. A high ROI means the investment's gains compare favorably to its cost. As a performance measure, ROI is used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment or to compare the efficiencies of several different investments. In purely economic terms, it is one way of relating profits to capital invested.

      And that is the first commandment of SC that must be followed. Or your stuffed

      • Leigh says:

        Thanks boys! I got to $13.5m last season after making the choice to steer clear of the high priced rooks. Always good to gain a little extra knowledge and have a way of calculating!

    • Tyruddanaut says:

      Simply
      Profit + Cost of Investment
      ———-—————————- X 100
      Cost of investment

  22. Defying_Madness says:

    Am I crazy for considering Cyril Rioli? Hawks have said he is on track for round 1 which is good news. His price is very low when you compare it to some of his averages over the last few years. The risk is obviously his injury history however if he stays fit he should be a good option to make cash and hold a decent average around 85-90. If I was to pick one of these forwards around the 300k mark due to the lack of rookies he is one I would look at ahead of Christensen and Bell.

    Thoughts community?

    • INPieman says:

      When Mason Cox & Cyril look like good Fwd line options it's a weird year of SC up front

      • Derek says:

        did someone mention Cyril?

        I started him last year when he was $500k.

    • Shake_n_Bake_ says:

      Rioli to play a practice match in the vfl this weekend. So all goes well will play rd 1.

    • Tyruddanaut says:

      Oh dear, what is the world coming to….? Only joking, but steer so far clear that if you turn back you can’t see it anymore and you might pass it if you drive by again so it’s a risk if you change your mind.

    • Patch says:

      Absolutely not mate. If any year is the year to start Cyril it's this one.

      Him being underdone with that injury history my only concern

    • Finnius says:

      If he was 50k less he would be a lock, but at 312k for me there is just not quite enough upside. Will make 80-90k and not much more, however I guess that is enough to turn into a fallen premo… ROI isn't that high however, and he will throw in the odd 26 just to make everything that little too complicated.

    • TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

      Cyril v bunga for f5 at the moment if i dont start danger.

      • Defying_Madness says:

        I was looking for a cheap player at D2 such as Marchbank or Mills, but the answer might be just to move Sicily to D2 and bring in Rioli at F5 then use the cash to bolster up other lines.

  23. MAcboi says:

    Thoughts in Dane rampe lads
    Very talented player and feel without his broken arm hindering him he could get up to 90+
    bit of food for thought

  24. Carl says:

    Spreadsheet doesn’t appear on safari? But when I look on the link via twitter it works…I just can’t scroll enough sideways.

  25. Hank_SC says:

    Excuse my ignorance but who is Stephenson?
    Team? Position? Price? Mature age?

  26. Petergenx says:

    Whatever happened to the cheat sheets? Are they now gone for good?

    • walter says:

      yeh i prefer the old fashioned cheat sheets too (a lot easier to read than this one)

    • Spencer says:

      Hope they do one soon, i have nfi on these rookies this year

  27. Sam_01 says:

    I think the backline is where the money can be made fellas
    Going to run Naughton, Murray, finlayson, toedee on field because fwd rookies are god awful. Allows me to run heeny, McLean, Smith, Sicily, bell, fristch up front have the Sicily keefe swing option open aswell between the lines

    • Finnius says:

      Same. My reasoning is that I back my Finlayson + Sicily at f5 to average more than savage + Liam Ryan…

  28. Rack Jiewoldt says:

    Great write up and monetary ROI is very important. Having said that, I think we Supercoaches need to be wary of just choosing rookies based on monetary ROI. We still need to a return on points we still need to win our league games. so if "A" is going to bring you 14 points more each week than "B" but also brings you less profit, you have to choose what is worth more.

    • Dutchy says:

      I think it’s more about what that extra money you save with the cheaper rookie gets you point wise

  29. BadgerHoney7 says:

    Money in bank: $153,100

    DEF: Laird, Hibberd, Sicily, Coffield, Doedee, Murray – Finlayson, Mihocek

    Questioning – Coffield at the moment, waying up between him and Naughton, feeling if I go with Coffield it would be a slight POD seeming that everyone is going with Naughton. I can fit in Naughton with money in bank but I'll just wait and see.

    MID: Martin, Mitchell, Fyfe, Bont, Cripps, Coniglio, JOM, Brayshaw – Banfield, T.Kelly, Holman

    Questioning: Obviously got no Danger at the moment and can easily bring him in for Bont but I feel if I wait until he goes down in price it will be worth the wait – plus I believe Bont will be scoring respectable scores so he can be a place holder. Will Brodie is questionable to be put in team as I think he'll get big minutes in the midfield and could score big scores. JOM is my biggest risk and I'm not getting rid of him really trust him to go well this year and first quarter against Carlton shows his potentional and for someone at his price, you take a ave. 90-95 but I will be wanting more.

    RUCK: Gawn, Nic Nat – Cameron

    Questioning: Nic Nat, if hes named Round 1 I'll go with him, if not, he'll be gone, Lycett is a liability and only scored 50 odd and got pounded by Sandy on the weekend so hes not the one in my opinion. Gawn lock obviously.

    FWD: Heeney, Billings, Smith, T.Bell, Fogarty, Ryan – Fritsch, Garlett

    Questioning: Heeney probably at the moment is my biggest worry, just need him to generate scores and will be in an out a lot of times in these next 9 days before Round 1, if the Fog plays Round 1, I'll probably go with but can easily swap him for a FWD rookies, don't really know if I want to start Ryan at the moment, just feel like he can dodgy with the 30s-40s regularly, just need more trustworthy FWD rookies.

    Feedback greatly appreciated.

    • David C says:

      Naughton at 21.6% ownership, Coffield at 21.3%. I wouldn't say everyone is going with Naughton.

      • paul says:

        I am sticking with Lycett going on his form in 2016 he can play and scored well with Nic Nat in the team. He is fit and with every game under his belt I feel he is only going to get better as he has not played much footy in a year.If he can average 80 odd then he will jump to 400,000 that's all i want.

    • Lazza says:

      Gee your DPP situation is dire … consider moving one of Coffield or Finlayson to the middle. Keep Naughton.. Dump JOM and upgrade Sicily to a premo. Maybe add O’Connor (DEF/MID) if picked.

    • Derek says:

      Don’t worry about Heeney, he is flying.

      Remember last year he had glandular fever, no pre season and still knocked out 100+ average.

  30. youngdumbnbroke says:

    so can i trade players in and out of my team (who have yet to play their rd1 game) and it doesnt use up any of my 30 trades?

    • walter says:

      unlimited champ until rnd1, because if that were the case i would be -1,568 trades

      • Petergenx says:

        2077 for me… faark!

      • youngdumbnbroke says:

        hahaha but what after rd1 has started? can u still change players on the weekend without using up trades before rd1 is complete?

  31. youngdumbnbroke says:

    **after rd1 has started

  32. paul says:

    I can't remember we do have unlimited trades until lockout last game round one. This will help if danger is taken out last minute . I will take Mitch Duncan as his last 10 games last year he averaged 122 and he has had a fantastic pre season. Also i will be holding the cash.The trick will be when to bring back Danger as he will probably be eased back thus dropping in price .

    • INPieman says:

      Nice plan. Can do that with any of Gary Duncan or Jelwood

    • SW Roosters XXX says:

      Nothing wrong with that plan – but is it really worth wasting a trade????

      Also some Syd mids such as Parker & Kennedy (Sydney play last game on the Sunday) you could consider along with the Geelong trio of Ablett, Duncan & Selwood

      Don't think there is any trick to when to bring back Danger in though – as soon as he is available get him in….

      You are overthinking it stating he will be eased back in… he is either fit or he isn't… if he is playing there is little doubt he will be playing his normal role… Not sure how you can be eased back in after a low grade hammy…

      Reality is, if Danger misses round 1 he will be playing Rd 2 so is it worth wasting a trade for one week of missed scores….
      If the rookie you play on field gets an 80 and Duncan, Ablett, Parker, Kennedy, Selwood who whoever you choose as a placeholder for Danger gets a 120 you are only 40 pts better off…

      What is a trade worth??? Certainly trades are gold come the back end of the year…..

      Personally I think you just pick Danger from the start – if he misses Rd 1 use him to help you loophole a couple of rookie scores to help get max points out of your on filed rook and enjoy getting him back in Rd 2 – trade saved and also the benefit of having No 1 SC player in your squad come Round 2 at a much lower ownership than would have been the case if he played Round 1.

      • Defying_Madness says:

        There are a few problems with starting him if he misses though. First of all what if he missed the second game? At that point you are really behind if you are playing for rank. Secondly relying on a rookie to score 80 isn't something I am comfortable in doing, especially when you already have 2 or 3 rookies on field which are probably your higher scoring ones. That 80 you mentioned is more realistically a 60. Personally if he misses I will just switch him to a Geelong midfielder and bring him back whenever he plays.

        • SW Roosters XXX says:

          Madness
          I was just using round figures of 80 and 120.. Just as the rookie that fills in for Danger might not snag 80 it is also possible that the place holding premo used for Danger will not score 120 – he might only get 90…. These are the intangibles that are hard to predict….

          All I am saying is that leaving Danger out is basically saying that you are prepared to burn a trade to get him back in – the question is how many points have you gained for the trade you will inevitably burn…. Could be that you play Duncan for Danger – Duncan gets 95 and you have Holman on the bench and he lays 13 tackles and gets 75 in that case you have gained 20 points for the sake of burning a trade to get Danger back in….

          What if the week you want to get Danger back in there are other injuries you need to deal with?

          Given he has been diagnosed with a low grade hammy be surprised if Danger isn't playing RD 2 – I personally think he is a massive chance to be there Round 1….

      • paul says:

        Good point utilization of trades are the key factor.

        • paul says:

          However I will be bringing in someone to replace him if he is a last minute out. There are three games on sunday and I feel the best options will be either Whitfield or Duncan as i already have Parker. Probably I will go with Duncan if need be.

      • Russty_ says:

        Good point Rooster, It's probably not worth burning a trade on cause let's face it, 99.999% of us end up playing for Leagues anyway, and they don't start till round 3…so what's a few points lost when they can be made up during the year.
        I was toying with the idea of Danger for Gaz and Gaz to Danger but I don't think I'll bother now 🙂
        Cheers mate.

  33. Nigel says:

    Thoughts on Howe as a POD? Was pretty good last year and seriously considering him at D3 this year.
    cheers

  34. Jordan says:

    Best risk to take in defence out of

    Shaw, marchbank, Weitering, boner and Dougal Howard?

    Don’t want jake Lloyd

    • Russty_ says:

      I think Bonner is a gun but not sure about his job security, Marchbank could have a good year too.The safest bet would probably be Shaw, without Zac williams there.

    • Steeeve says:

      Shaw is a lock for mine

    • Derek says:

      I think Mills will get more midfield time and push 90+ average

  35. Will says:

    Brilliant article that shows you should try your best to pick the cheap ones to maximise overall ROI. However, you still have to pick the blokes you can see scoring decently when others show very little and have little job security, you need to get that balance. I've seen sides with all 123k rookies get completely destroyed in the early weeks of the season mostly due to being dropped. For me Brodie, Brayshaw and Naughton are must have guys at 150k+ but they will be all I'm touching. However, if someone like Murphy is named I think you have to pick him over Coffield, especially when both have similar JS.

    • Will says:

      players being dropped**

    • INPieman says:

      I think the 3 overpriced rookies you've named are the ones worth considering. I'll stand with correctives for the rest. I'll keep some cash incase 1 or 2 demand inclusion

  36. Jordan says:

    What’s up with Dayne Beams? Is he injured? At 550k he’s a bit of a a steal. If u take away his game last year we he was knocked out in the first quarter and scored 12, he would of averaged 109.2 in is first year back from an extended recovery. With Rockliff’s departure I can only see beams’ score improving and I thing he could be amongst the top 10 midfielders this year

    What are your thoughts?

    • John says:

      His father passed away two weeks ago after a long battle with cancer. He should be playing round 1.

  37. Will says:

    Sicily or Petracca?

  38. BlueBaggerJosh says:

    DEF: Laird, Hibberd, Weitering, Naughton, Murray, Doedee, (Finlayson, Keefe)

    MID: Danger, Dusty, Titch, Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Brayshaw, Banfield (Kelly, Barry, Holman)

    RUC: Kreuzer, Gawn (Cameron)

    FWD: Heeney, Walters, Petracca, Sicily, Fritsch, Garlett (Ryan, Brown for loophole)
    Thoughts? ( have $46,000 left)

    • Derek says:

      I don’t hate the Weitering selection, but he just doesn’t have the game to have a high ceiling. 70’s and 80’s at best means he won’t be top 20 defender and will make $80k max

      • BlueBaggerJosh says:

        What do you think about someone like mills?

      • jvm says:

        Weitering 75 av in first year… last year he was experimented with in forward half, that didnt work, this season he will settle in defence. He is highly skilled and will be the blues preferred option kicking out of defence. Very high ceiling.

  39. Fourbells says:

    Hi need feedback on
    Cripps and Coniglio or Whitfield and Liberatore

    • BlueBaggerJosh says:

      Don't think you can go wrong either way mate, personally I'd go option 1

  40. The Ranger says:

    Ha ha ha…only just noticed Cam O'Shea's potential price Barron….think I'll jump on now!

  41. Takenforaride says:

    Did anybody else get sucked onto the heraldsun subscription scam? They promised 8-months of foxtelnow along with better analysis tools online readership etc for $41 pmonth. Foxtel itself is 44 so great deal I thought and signed up.
    3-Days later HS send me an email to advise that my 8-months of foxtelnow ends on April 3rd. How is that legal?

    • guest says:

      seriously take your complaint to
      https://www.tio.com.au/making-a-complaint

      thats your best chance for sure

      • belly button fluff says:

        Yes do as Guest says definitely. I've used the ombudsman a few times for various things. For example I tried to get telstra to fix my numbers and account details for my business account for over a year. Rang the ombudsman. Telstra are straight back to me suck-holing and offering me a free months from my bills. I also used them to complain about the AFL app that went to 7" screen last year, got a refund for that too. GL!

    • guest says:

      seriously take your complaint to
      https://www.tio.com.au/making-a-complaint

  42. Guest says:

    https://www.tio.com.au/making-a-complaint

    take your complaint there re Fox and HS

  43. The G-Train says:

    Anyone keen on Jack Martin? Tossing up between him and Petracca. Martin definitely has more potential than petracca, but the fact he is so inconsistent and throws some real duds in there is a concern. I just keep thinking with Gablett gone and Martin being 22 now it might be time for more midfield time. Thoughts?

    • belly button fluff says:

      Very Possible G-Train but for a tiny bit more you could get Cogs. If it did pay off you would be set apart from the rest.

  44. Matty says:

    Would anyone be Keen to join a draft league hopefully drafting tonight?

  45. Hawks says:

    Appreciate peoples thoughts on Hurley, Hibberd & Laird.

    I am looking to include 2 into my defensive line.

    Torn between which 2 are likely to provide the best output.

    Thanks

  46. Dean says:

    Havent been spending as much time on SC this year as I have been to busy.

    I noticed no one has selected or talked about Robbie Gray and as a Forward I rate him F1 or F2 at worst, however I must be missing something, is he injured? Gray isn't showing up as injured or subject to fitness test on SC?

    Good luck all.

  47. Pete says:

    Here is my team, I understand quite a few people will have their doubts about having Cyril Rioli & Christensen in the forward line but I'm willing to take the risk on Rioli this season providing he plays in Round 1
    I just don't have the confidence in selecting more then the two benched rookies in the forward line even though their very well could be other rookies playing Round 1 I just don't think their job security is worth the risk.
    If Rioli can stay sound and play 10 games before the byes and average 80+, prior to last season he averaged 90+ for 7 consecutive seasons and at $317k I think he is worth the risk especially with limited rookies in the forward line.

    Anyway here is my team, rookies obviously subject to change depending who's selected come round 1

    Hurley, Laird, Hibberd, Doedee, Murray, Finlayson (Murphy, Garthwaite)
    Danger, Titch, Oliver, Fyfe, JPK, Armitage, Banfield, Barry (Garlett, Kelly, Holman)
    Gawn, Lycett (Lavender)
    Heeney, Billings, Wallis, Smith, Rioli, Christensen (Fritsch, Ryan)

    Hurley, Laird, Hibberd, Doedee, Murray, Finlayson (Murphy, Garthwaite)
    Danger, Titch, Oliver, Fyfe, JPK, Armitage, Banfield, Barry (Garlett, Kelly, Holman)
    Gawn, Lycett (Cameron)
    Heeney, Billings, Wallis, Smith, Rioli, Christensen (Fritsch, Ryan)

    Let me know what you all think, good or bad.

  48. Homer says:

    No rookie cheat sheets make homer go something something

  49. Rick says:

    Love the stats to back the thinking.
    Wondering what the % of games played looks like for the high end rookies (selected round 1) v the value rookies (selected round 1). I suspect the equation comes back to higher priced rookie players once job security cones into it.

  50. Soothsayer says:

    What is going on with Hugh Goddard at the saints? Any news on him?

  51. Heg says:

    G'day, could I please have some thoughts on my team:

    $17.9k in the bank

    Def: Laird, Hibberd, Rance, Mills, Naughton, O'Shea (Keefe, Mihocek)
    Mid: Danger, Dusty, Titch, Fyfe, Cripps, Andrew Brayshaw, Banfield, Kelly (Garlett, Barry, Holman)
    Ruck: Gawn, Naitanui (Balta)
    Fwd: Heeney, Billings, Smith, Sicily, English, Fritsch (Giles-Langdon, Ryan)

    Any advice would be greatly appreciated, TIA

  52. thecheesemister says:

    hmu with league codes

  53. Jimbob says:

    Thoughts on Ben Taberner… looked impressive in the JLT series. Add him as an F4?