DANGERFIELD vs MARTIN vs MITCHELL

Filed in Geelong 2018, Hawthorn 2018, Midfielders, Premiums, Richmond 2018, Supercoach, Supercoach 2018 by on 20/02/2018 • views: 6784

Hey Community. Kev here. Lek, Patch, BvC – those are the guys that stood up and kept the Jock Reynolds train rumbling for another season.

Patch just roped me in because, umm, err…. he needed someone to get the coffee? Someone to get him his pre-podcast danish? (he won’t go on without his danish). Whatever the reason, I’m still learning the ropes, and what do you do to the the guy that’s still learning the ropes? You haze him horribly and give him the jobs that are impossible to find the answer to. What in God’s Jock’s green earth do I do?


(I’m joking. I’ll do my best)

 Danger v Dusty v Titch… where do I start? I could just reel off a bunch of stats and accolades these guys have received over the past 12 months, but that would be too easy and also very boring. Why shouldn’t you start with these guys? For the sake of an argument, going in with all three is not something I’d advise. All three will set you back just over $2m of your starting salary cap. 20% on three players. Yes, it will be difficult to trade these guys in, but it’s also going to leave things tight elsewhere.

Why shouldn’t you pick Dangerfield?

2017 Stats:

Average: 136.2 from 21 games

Ceiling: 15 times scored 130+

High score: 196

2018 price: 749,800

The argument for not starting Danger is his price is just way too high. Which is fair enough. Even the most one-eyed Geelong supporter will admit that 750k is just not sustainable. So just how far will he drop? I took his 3-game average from his first 8 opponents in 2018: Melbourne, Hawthorn, West Coast, St. Kilda, Port Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, and Collingwood, and crunched the numbers.

As you can see, it’s a straight slope down to the Swans in round 6, following that game you can possibly pick him up for around 675k before he faces the Giants in round 7, a team that he has a 3-game average of 161 against. With all things being correct and equal, he’ll have scored 738 points at an average of 123 following round 6.

There also the teeny tiny issue of some bald-headed Jesus type figure rejoining the Cats this year. This bald-headed Jesus – BHJ if you will – averaged 13.7 contested possessions a game last year. 9th overall. (Danger averaged 17.9 – 1st, Jelwood 13.6 – 10th). I can only straight up guess what this means for Danger. If he ends up spending more time forward then in the two H&A games that Fanfooty lists him as a starting forward he took 21 marks, kicked 8.8, averaged 29 touches and managed a SuperCoach average of 153.

The takeaway: Scroll back up a bit. Yeah, he’s gonna drop. It’s best you just deal with it and accept the fact that he’s not just your everyday premium. He’s a rolled gold uber premium that has averaged 130+ in consecutive years. He’s going to be a cracking VC/C option and when he goes bloody bananas, he scored above 130 FIFTEEN times in 2017, you don’t want to miss out. Are you willing to forego this just to save yourself 75k?

Why shouldn’t you pick Dusty?

 2017 Stats:

Average: 119.5 from 22 games

Ceiling: 8 times scored 130+

High score: 166

2018 price: 656,800

There’s some rumblings that Dusty is a poor starter. Especially against Carlton. After a 51 in 2015 and an 86 in 2016, he torched them in 2017 with a 33 possession/4 goal game that was worthy of a 159.

2017 was the first season Dusty averaged over 108, so simply going back and looking at how he starts the year won’t tell the whole story. In the table below, the left-hand column is his first 8 games from 2017. On the right is his 3-game average for his first eight opponents for this year

 

First 8 games – 2017 3-game average v first 8 opponents – 2018
R1 159 122
R2 118 106.3
R3 155 116
R4 54 98
R5 92 86
R6 93 125
R7 87 122.6
R8 105 120.3
Average – 107.8 Average – 112

Now let’s look at two things:

  • If he repeated his 2017 start priced at 656k, what would his price be at the end of round 8? (blue line)
  • With his 656k starting price and 3-game averages against his first 8 opponents, how will his price look after round 8? (green line)

He started 2017 at a price of 588k, almost 70k less than his 2018 stating price. His steep drop off line is expected as he only averaged 107 in this time. The green line is the much more interesting one I think. Even with sub 100 3-game averages in round 4 and 5, his price won’t take a massive hit. He’ll be priced at just under 600k at the end of round 8 (594k).

The takeaway: Again, I’m only working with averages here so please don’t take this as permission to come at me with knives and pitchforks if it doesn’t work out exactly like this. If the green line is close to being correct then he’s decreased in price 62k and averaging 112.

Why shouldn’t you pick Tom Mitchell?

 2017 Stats:

Average: 118.8 from 22 games

Ceiling: 5 times scored 130+

High score: 161

2018 price: 653,500

 

They say to never look a gift horse in the mouth. I think… I dunno, I don’t know animals. In this clumsy metaphor the horse is the Horse himself, John Longmuir, and the gift is Tom Mitchell. Tom was prancing about in the NEAFL gathering touches like he’d brought his own footy. Horse questioned the value of his gift. His gift was ultimately shipped off to the Hawks. The Gift went bloody off his chain and averaged just under 36 touches a game.

What immediately stands out for me is despite the fact he’s getting serious leather poisoning week-in, week-out, he only recorded 5 games above 130. As such, the knock on him is that he just isn’t damaging enough. Almost 22 of those 36 are handballs. His “metres gained” sits at 308m per match. This is not that great. Dusty was 482m and Danger 441m for this stat last year.

What I’ve done for Tom is the same what I did for Dusty. I took his first 8 scores from 2017 and used them at his 2018 starting price of 653k to see what happens (blue line). The green line shows his 3-game average from his first 8 opponents in 2018.

*Note: Hawks play Sydney in round 8, so there is only two games of data. I took the average of these to be his third game.

Titch had a huge finish to the year (126.5 in his final 4, 124.5 in final 8) as such, his 653k starting price is just a little bit too big for his boots. If you want to gamble on an early season shocker (he scored 85 against Geelong in round 4, 2017. Hawks play them in round 2 this year) you may be able to snaffle him early for under 600k.

Simply comparing his green line with Dusty’s doesn’t tell the full story. With an average of 95, his round 7 clash with Essendon seems to be his bogey team. However, he has only played them three times in his career, one of which was his first game of senior footy. He came on as the sub and had 18 touches in a little over a half of footy.

 

The takeaway: I don’t think it really matters if coaches see Tom as being damaging or not, he’s allowed to prance about and pick up his 35 touches a game so he’s going to get points for it. He’s just so darn consistent in being able to jump out 100+ scores. While he may not have the ceiling of Danger or Dusty, being able to grab him at a significant price drop will be hard to do

Ughhhh, I don’t want to read all that. What’s the answer?

Danger looks like an absolute must play for mine. The annals of SuperCoach are littered with cases of players ruining their jocks with skid marks before, but for Dangerfield to even be remotely affordable he’s going to have to ruin multiple pairs. This guy just doesn’t do consecutive bad weeks. He’s a pretty rooster too, he cares too much about his jocks to ruin multiple pairs like that.

Dusty or Titch? There’s not a whole lot between them. It’s the ceiling of Dusty v the consistency of Titch. If you’re playing the bye rounds this year then Tom’s round 12 bye will be very useful. The round 14 bye is filled to the brim the premium round 14 midfield talent (Crouch, Sloane, Fyfe, Danger, Gaz, Dusty, the Sydney boys) so if you find yourself to be absolutely decimated that week then taking Titch over Dusty is something I’d look into.

If you’re going for overall or taking a #yolo approach to the byes this year, then locking in all three from the start gives you some serious fire power right from the get go.

Best of luck, Community. There’s no right or wrong answer here, go with your gut feel and whatever it is you decide absolutely own that. If I had all the answers I’d be able to do that dolla dolla bills thing but I get anxiety over my tap and go card working when I’m at the shops.

Follow Kev on Twitter

 

Comments (69)

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  1. Eric_the_Red says:

    You're a legend Kev. Thanks mate. I'm personally going with danger Mitchell and Kelly as M1-3 but a part of me is yearning for Dusty too. Decisions.

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      Cheers, Eric. Nothing wrong with that. I thought Kelly might take a hit from no Mumford any more but his clearance numbers are sort of low anyway. Yet to look into him but I will

  2. hedski says:

    Thanks Kev, I'm only running Danger from these three atm, because he is Danger.
    Dusty should (fingers crossed) drop a bit and I hope (fingers crossed) to turn JOM into Titch.

    • Eric_the_Red says:

      Who have you got at M2 and 3 hedski?

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      Danger has been a lock since day 1. Hasn’t moved from M1. Only thing I question there hedski it’ll take something drastic for both Dusty and Titch to spend a significant length of time under 600k.

      It’s difficult to get these super pricey guys in

  3. Liam says:

    Midfield is currently as follows.

    Dusty, Gaz, Fyfe, Pendles, Parker, Rocky, JOM, LDU (Barry,Fogarty,Kelly)

    I know danger is missing, but at this stage I don’t think he is worth 750k and personally see him averaging 125-130 (still huge). The aim is to trade JOM to Danger around round 10 for about 150-200k.

    Is anyone else as crazy as me or am I the only one ?

    Cheers

    • DacZawson says:

      The craziest thing in that midfield set up is that you only have 1 on-field rookie. Of course this will all depend on round 1 line-ups and performances in the JLT but it looks as though the midfield has the greatest spread of decent rookies that you'd wanna take advantage of.

    • Liam says:

      I’ve only got two rookies in defence and forward so fairly happy with the spread of rookies currently. But as you said it depends on what rookies get named so can easily take out one of Parker and Rocky to make room for another rookie.

    • Defying_Madness says:

      I am aiming on going JOM to Danger as well. Out of the 3 I only have Mitchell currently. A risk I know, but one I would take at the present. I could always end up chickening out before the season starts as well.

    • Patch says:

      I did it last year and it really hurt, especially as I got two of my picks in JPK and Priddis wrong. They wore me down all season, and the loss of cash generation meant I couldn't upgrade them or change them.

      I'd be cautious going in with six premos and JOM – even if Jaeger isn't going to be there by season's end

  4. Krups says:

    Danger Ablett Zorko for me.
    Going against the grain.

    • Saundo says:

      Yeah me too

    • Liam says:

      Love the Gaz pick in my team as well.

      • Krups says:

        Reckon he will go off early

        • paul says:

          Well when he gets his 150s which is 300 i will be thinking of you guys,

          • paul says:

            Danger/Tom/Kelly/M,couch,Fyfe,parker.Brayshaw,LDU.There are some good defenders this year that i feel will step up allowing me more money in the midfield. Lard, Loyd, Hanley,saad.o'shea,Doedee.

  5. Finnius123 says:

    Going with Danger and Titch – Dusty more likely to drop at some stage. Also not backing him to be quite as good as he was last year.

  6. Derek says:

    pay the price!

    • Mr.Brightside says:

      You going with all 3 Derek ?

      • Derek says:

        at this stage i'll be starting Danger, Dusty, Kelly, MCrouch, Fyfe,

        • Defying_Madness says:

          No Cripps is interesting. What are your thoughts on him Derek?

          • Derek says:

            every now and then he jumps into my team when i need cash. so he is my option of the cheaper premium if i need one.

        • joe444 says:

          You're dangerously close to stuffed in round 14, then. Four of those five not playing.

    • redgumwon says:

      Derek The Draft league code is 450692. Hope to see your there shortly

  7. Rick Grimes says:

    Got all three in at the moment. Running a pure GnR.

  8. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    Nice one Kev.
    That $100k saved from starting dusty over danger is very handy. You can go a barry to brodie. Tmac to hurley. Just depends how u put it to your advantage.
    At the moment im rolling with Danger, Titch and Kelly.
    Funny but amazingly dusty could be a pod!
    Not much between the best of the best. Throw in Fyfe is life as well.
    Will be the other lines which will sort us out that and picking the right middie.

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      Cheers, Trig. Loved the “not much between the best of best” line. Absolutely right. They’ve all got amazing stats so a bit of personal choice comes into it

  9. Tyruddanaut says:

    Only going with Danger this year, Kelly, Xorko and Merritt other Uber premiums

  10. Dogs says:

    Starting all 3. Running strong with the kids with Cripps at M6 . Of course it’s all subject to change due to rookie svsilabilities on each line .

  11. Pieman says:

    Here's an idea Kev, compare everybody priced over 500k with more than 3-years experience the same way you have these blokes.
    Guess what you'll find out mate?
    Yep this is a worthless article.

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      Cheers for the feedback, Pie. Think you’ve sort of missed the point mate. It was not my intention to prove these guys are good players. No shit. They are the top 3 highest priced this year for a reason.

      Judging by the comments, it has created discussion. Which at the end of the day is what we want.

    • Stephen Parker says:

      Whooaaah! Bit harsh Pieman. I liked it and thought Jeb did well. How bout you provide an article and show him how its done?

  12. Lachy says:

    Not sure why so many are picking up Gaz. He'll be rested every 4 weeks you watch.

    • Krups says:

      Because he is happy and loving gtown. He will go off his bloody chops

      • Truthful says:

        That'll be like history repeating because Gaz senior went off his chops but he just waited until retirement

  13. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    Hey gang.
    Rather fittingly the " Titch to Scratch" league is now open.

    Only proviso you have to have Tom Mitchell in your team

    League code: 631081

    To quote the crouching one:
    Welcome.

  14. Steeeve says:

    Please let there be a good assortment of forward and defensive rookies. Would love to go cheap in those lines and load my mids.

  15. Kyle says:

    Looking like danger and titch for me. Surrounded by a few PODS in neale zerrett and the bont.

    Dusty is just too inconsistent for mine. Has the massive ceiling but his low scores hurt. Most likely of the 3 to drop early on imo

  16. The Ranger says:

    Thanks Kev.
    I'll be starting Danger and Titch and aiming for Dusty after the byes.

  17. INPieman says:

    Great stuff Kev. I have Danger & Titch ATM. Danger won't be moving. We will see how the rookie crop pans out

  18. BrownlowBoy says:

    Danger first picked and Titch also firmly cemented. Neither will be leaving my side.

    • hedski says:

      Hey BB, good to see Patch's Potatoes have jumped in your league, hopefully Lek, Barron and Kev jump in too, should be fun 👍

      • hedski says:

        My bad Kev is already in.

        • gator59 says:

          jump in the league below thanks hedski.. oceans 14

          • hedski says:

            Sry mate only have 2 leagues spare, they are for cashies, in lotsa leagues with you so plenty of challenges thru the season 👍

      • Lekdog says:

        Please remind me of the league code and I'll jump in!

        • gator59 says:

          jump in the league below to Lek .. cheers

        • hedski says:

          Brownlow Boys league Lek, I hope he doesn't mind me whacking it up here! (Its on another thread anyway)

        • hedski says:

          Sweet your in, I deleted the code from my comment, I'll leave it up to BB to invite anyone else.

  19. gator59 says:

    Calling on LEK, PATCH, BARON AND THE GREAT MESSIAH JOCK,, To join a new league called OCEANS 14.. Would be great if you could all make your way in please..Code ….262945… Invites only this is a PRIVATE LEAGUE

  20. HaRRy says:

    Is starting with Danger Mitchell Kelly Fyfe Beams LDU Dow & Brodie crazy?
    is having 3 inflated rookies worth a crack? i think there is serious cash to be made from them as they will all play from round 1 and score reasonably… or i could change one to a JOM or coniglio ? hmmmmm would love some feedback guys

    • dontblushbaby says:

      I have the same first 4 but JOM instead of Beams then,LDU,T.Kelly,Worpel,Holman,Garlett at this stage ,nothing concrete like everyone else

    • TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

      Wait and see what happens with some cheaper options in JLT

  21. tommymac19 says:

    just take all three

  22. Springroll says:

    Any thoughts on who is the better pick between Kelly and Oliver? Both similar price, leaning more towards Oliver at the moment.
    Same with Coniglio and Blakely?

  23. paul says:

    Jock any thoughts on the R2 this year looking at Simpson or Lycett with maybe getting Nic nat after he settles or Rider after the byes.These guys Simpson and Lycett are fit and will make money.W/C will not rush back nic nat if Lycett is doing well and he may do as his 2016 figures in the ruck with nic nat were really good. Simpson looks good bit i am thinking Lobb is more likely to be ready for round one.I can't wait to see how Lycett goes in this JLT game.

  24. @wheels_1987 says:

    My advice is "if you think they will finish as a top 8 MID for the year or top 6 in DEF or FWD then LOCK THEM IN"

    Price means nothing if your saving your trades

    Barring injury all 3 will be top 8 MIDS for the year so just slot them in

  25. Locked and Loaded says:

    Danger, Dusty, Titch, Zorko and Fyfe for me… jumping out the blocks fast is so important and I can’t picture myself getting all these guys at their lowest price (if they even get there) also mids are you’re engine room carry your team I want ceiling and consistency and you’ll find you don’t have to sacrifice elsewhere too much can still stick to your structure by selecting all three #YOLO