The JR Academy – Week 13

JR-Academy-Web-Post-Image

THE ACADEMY – WEEK 13

This week’s Academy and Graduate game will feature RICHMOND V ST.KILDA

Before getting to the JR Draftstars, I would like to highlight three significant promotions for your consideration;

1. The FREE PLAY JR Academy Competition with $100 in prizes on offer. Enter here

2. The $2 JR Graduate Competition offering a vast overlay(explained below). Enter here

3. A $50,000 DRAFTSTARS Sunday Competition for those ready to pit their skill and cunning against the wider Draftstars community. Enter here


 The Academy Ladder after 12 gamesAcadLad-AUG-24

ENTER THIS WEEK’S JOCK REYNOLDS DRAFTSTARS ACADEMY CONTEST HERE


The Graduates LadderGradLaddAUG-24

WEEK 7 Graduate Prize Pool Explained

Last week saw another attractive JR Graduate competition prize pool. While 160 entrants each paid an entrance fee of $2 (160x $2 = $320), the prize pool was a staggering $700! This meant that there was an additional prize “overlay” of $380.

When the odds of a successful outcome are stacked heavily in your favour it’s time to play!

Calculating the expected return on last week’s JR Graduate Competition;

When considering any wager one must weigh up the odds and expected return or most likely outcome to result from the bet. Below I have detailed some simplistic mathematics relating to last week’s contest.

Expected Return = Probability of Winning x Average Win Return – Probability of Losing x Amount of Loss

Probability of Winning = 0.53 (85 people collected a prize out of the 160 entrants … 85/160)

Average Win Return = $8.24 (Prizes scaled down from 1st – $105 to 85th – $2.10 … $700/85 = $8.24)

Probability of Losing = 1 – Pr(win) = 1 – 0.53 = 0.47

Amount of Loss = $2

Expected Return = 0.53 x $8.24- 0.47 x $2

= $3.42

In last week’s contest, your expected return on your $2 investment was $3.42….. SIGNIFICANT!!

ENTER THE ‘JOCK REYNOLDS GRADUATES’ CONTEST HERE – $2 BUY-IN


And now to this week’s game – RICHMOND v ST.KILDA

MCG, Sunday, August 27, 3.20pm AEST

A fascinating game for a number of reasons;

– Richmond are in red-hot form however, last time these two teams met St.Kilda dominated in all aspects.

– Richmond need to win and win well with the possibility of a double chance and first home final still alive. If Geelong win and Richmond’s percentage elevates they can finish 2nd on the AFL ladder. If they loose, The Tigers will be in another sudden-death finals situation.

– The Nick Riewoldt factor can’t be ignored. The Saints will not only go in confident given the outcome the last time these two met but they will certainly be putting it all on the line for the retiring superstar.

Key Game Notes

  • Average team Draftstars Pts/Game; RICHMOND – 1548 (16th ranked), ST.KILDA 1660 (5 th ranked)
  • Last time they met (MCG Rd.8);
    • Draftstars Pts. – ST.KILDA 1827, RICHMOND 1358
    • Seb Ross(151 Pts.), Jack Steven(115) and Montagna(102) all had over 30 possessions.
    • Neither team chose to tag an opposition player.
    • Nankervis 18 hitouts(73 pts) V Longer 39 Hitouts(100 pts)
    • Rance(48 pts) on Riewoldt(112 pts) and Astbury(85 pts) on Bruce(81 pts)
  • The Saints also beat The Tigers in R22, 2016 – St Kilda 7.13 (55) d Richmond 6.10 (46) …. interestingly, this is the last time The Saints recorded a win at The MCG.
  • The Saints rank 5th for uncontested possessions(256/game) while the Tigers rank 18th(219/game).

In a similar scenario to last week’s FREO v RIC game, I feel we should be considering Richmond as the game winners here. The interesting consideration is that Richmond have consistently won games with fewer possessions than their opponent.

Players such as Jack Steven and Seb Ross, both coming off high possession games, will most probably be given freedom with The Tigers once again backing in their own midfield guns.

The Ruck selection appears a choice in two with Longer presenting as a $1,000 cheaper option to Nankervis. Given Longer’s dominance last time they met, this may prove a sound starting point in team selection.

Let’s now consider the Fantasy Insider game point projections;


 

Fantasy Insider Game Forecasts

NameTeamPositionPriceProjectionSDFloorCeiling$/Pt.
Dustin MartinRICFWD16100109.123.4785.62156.05147.57
Jack BillingsSTKFWD1445094.723.8470.85142.39152.58
Dion PrestiaRICMID139508225.3656.63132.72170.12
Jack SteeleSTKFWD1380089.120.0469.05129.18154.88
Bachar HouliRICDEF1375096.723.1473.56142.98142.19
Sebastian RossSTKMID1375097.223.3573.84143.91141.46
Shaun GriggRICMID137009120.370.69131.6150.54
Luke DunstanSTKMID1360082.420.7361.66123.87165.04
Jack StevenSTKMID1340089.224.6964.5138.58150.22
Toby NankervisRICRK1275090.42268.39134.41141.03
Shane SavageSTKDEF1270078.620.4258.17119.44161.57
Kane LambertRICMID1265083.625.5158.08134.62151.31
Trent CotchinRICMID1260087.823.4964.3134.79143.5
Blake AcresSTKMID1240074.524.3250.17123.15166.44
Jack NewnesSTKMID124008819.668.39127.2140.9
Brandon EllisRICMID1235084.522.3462.15129.18146.15
Nick RiewoldtSTKFWD1230087.928.7759.12145.45139.93
Koby StevensSTKMID1225086.322.3863.91131.07141.94
Jacob TownsendRICMID1185066.428.2738.12122.95178.46
Billy LongerSTKRK1170074.321.1453.15116.59157.46
Dylan RobertonSTKDEF1150083.122.9360.16128.97138.38
Tim MembreySTKFWD1120071.920.1851.71112.26155.77
Nick VlastuinRICDEF106007217.2554.74106.5147.22
Jack SinclairSTKFWD1060073.919.754.19113.3143.43
Jade GreshamSTKMID1040062.612.8349.7688.26166.13
Maverick WellerSTKFWD1040068.215.8952.399.98152.49
Jack RiewoldtRICFWD1010071.819.4752.32110.74140.66
Alex RanceRICDEF985069.618.7850.81107.16141.52
Jack GrahamRICMID975080.7080.780.7120.81
Shane EdwardsRICFWD935060.618.1342.4696.86154.29
Jarryn GearySTKDEF935062.315.2147.0892.73150.08
David AstburyRICDEF925067.417.8449.55103.09137.24
Josh BruceSTKFWD920066.220.6145.58107.43138.97
Jake CarlisleSTKDEF905062.320.6941.6103.68145.26
Kamdyn McIntoshRICMID900061.717.3944.396.49145.86
Nathan BroadRICDEF895061.512.8848.6187.27145.52
Sam GilbertSTKDEF870063.419.4743.92102.35137.22
Jimmy WebsterSTKDEF850065.319.0246.27103.34130.16
Daniel RioliRICFWD845054.315.9738.3286.25155.61
Daniel ButlerRICFWD765053.718.0835.6189.87142.45
Jason CastagnaRICDEF740052.323.7328.5699.77141.49
Dylan GrimesRICDEF725051.215.8835.3182.97141.6
Oleg MarkovRICFWD675049.125.5223.57100.14137.47
Nathan J. BrownSTKDEF640019.712.057.6443.8324.87

What a significant resource! Thanks again to Darryl and his team at Fantasy Insider for allowing The JR Community to access this resource. For those wanting to examine forecasts for other games this week, click the link below.

In exciting news, Darryl and the team are opening up the lineup cruncher for FREE USE to all and sundry.. I highly recommend you leverage this opportunity to your benefit.

BIG NEWS: Fantasy Insider are allowing FREE USE of the lineup cruncher – use the best tool in the business here


 Lineups for RIC v STK;

Team Peter_Higgo v Fantasy Insider

weekly-lineupSTK-v-RIC

I am daring to start without Nick Riewoldt – without any key forwards in fact. I feel this will be a low scoring affair with much of the game being played off Richmond’s half-back line … the Tiger mosquito fleet continually being swatted by the Saint defence.

Roberton, Stevens and Newnes are key link players and I am going with the statistics and forecasting a Richmond win in a game in which St.Kilda out-possess.

Cotchin, coming off a 53 last week seems far too cheap to ignore.

It is interesting to note that the Fantasy Insider machine learning tool and its LineUp cruncher has selected 6 of the 9 players from St.Kilda. The only Tigers it has selected are Graham, Markov and Nankervis. The warning symbol next to Graham and Markov indicate that the forecasts are based on minimal input data so may be unreliable. I would like to add a third warning next to Nankervis. I feel his game last week, scoring 140 points in a rampant Tiger team, may be weighing too heavily into his forecast.


 So Before I hand over to you in the comments, please take the time to complete this pre-lockout selection pole.

It is hoped that this tool will provide you with who The JR Community feel are “locks” for this contest. It may also affirm a player you like as a nice POD!

Which of the following top end players (pick up to FIVE) will make your starting lineup?

View Results

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ENTER THE ‘JOCK REYNOLDS GRADUATES’ CONTEST HERE – $2 BUY-IN

ENTER THIS WEEK’S ACADEMY CONTEST HERE

 

Kind regards,

Peter J Higginbotham

BIG NEWS: Fantasy Insider are allowing FREE USE of the lineup cruncher – use the best tool in the business here

DFS_post_cruncher-(1)

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Comments (44)

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  1. Stirlsy says:

    These 2 teams met 7 weeks ago, under da roof, thinking it will be a bit different at the G this time.
    Iv already picked 2 teams 1 with the Dustyman and 1 without, looking at the 2 the one without looks better but ill be playing around with it over the next couple of days.
    Nank looks the better ruck option to me, Longer just doesn't get enough of it and rarely kicks the pill and that's about all I dont like about yr team Higgo, in saying that iv got bloody Longer sitting in the ruck ATM although for the extra grand i think ill find to play the big TANK if he is alone again.
    Thoughts Community …

  2. Stirlsy says:

    Ok Higgo it time to correct you on a few things in your write up.
    Last time these 2 teams met was round 16 not round 8 and the game was at Docklands not MCG the roof was closed so it was a Sainters home game.
    This game is at the G and to me using one of your fav words that's ( SIGNIFICANT ) everything else seems to be correct.

    Even tho the Saints beat the Tigs last year at the G and as Higgo has pointed out there last win at the venue was that game almost 12months ago, the Tigers are a much better unit now.
    They also play much better at the G then the Saints its the Tigs by 4 goals plus in my books.

  3. Stirlsy says:

    Get into em Trigga
    might have a crack at the 2 buck mini tonight myself.

    • TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

      Looking to fill my last mid spot on Sunday.
      Bennell is cheap at $9k
      Didnt see the game last week but seemed to fly out of the blocks early then faded badly.
      Worth.a shot?

      • Stirlsy says:

        nope look back at last weeks post, i said he wouldn't score 50pts and ill take bets on it.
        I was looking pretty silly saying that by qtr time he had 2 goals and 32 pts but then look what he ended up on 41 and the bookie would of cleaned up.
        Trigga the guy can play but its been 2 years away from the big stuff, talk ovwer here of getting him ready for next year to play mid time he went into 2 centre bounces last week that i saw, expect 4 to 6 this week but he will still be on managed time same as last week.
        Again this week big PASS.

  4. Stirlsy says:

    Defying go you good thing

    • Defying_Madness says:

      Cheers mate, hopefully I can hold on and the Hawkies win. Thought process behind selecting Roughy was that the Dogs lack a key defender and it's paying off so far.

      • Stirlsy says:

        Hard luck buddy, thought you had it but they kept kicking it to McLean, still a nice collect.
        I had a shocker worst game iv had.

  5. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    Beat barry last night gave me $2 so joining the graduates.
    Also best finish so far in this new format finishing just outside top 10 in the free comp.
    So slowly working it out and progressing.

    • hedski says:

      Yeah I beat Bazza, I'm having a dip at the $30k super Saturday comp and the big 965.
      The free comps are good for practice (only the ones where you can win cash), I like the free turbo comps too.

      • Stirlsy says:

        Nice work you 2 might of beaten him too if 2 I picked had been playing lol picked early and didn't revisit it.
        Defying finished 2nd in the $2 mini last nite unlucky lost by 3pts after being in front most of nite.

      • TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

        Im having a red hot go this weekend.
        Im in the $30k as well.
        965 couldnt see how you could put in a team that could score that much so pass for me

        • hedski says:

          Yeah its tough, only costs a buck tho. The big 990 went off last week, 2 teams got $17k each.

          • Stirlsy says:

            Dyfying last nite was around the 930 mark not far off it.
            No funds to play in the bigger games, ill potter around in the 2 buck contests pie game about to pick team with 20 mins to go so i dont over think it.
            And just put a team in the sat 2 buck one as well.
            Good luck guys.

        • Stirlsy says:

          Plus a guy in one of my contests went over the 990 last week as well Trigga and didn't have it in the 990 contest.
          Think i saw him still kicking himself down the street this morning 1 dollar extra could of been 10k but agree hard to win.
          I haven't been over 900 yet close a few times so haven't played it either.

  6. hedski says:

    Smashing 3 different teams into the graduates contest this week, will be fun to see how they go.
    In the $2 mini and big 965 too, pretty hard to get that one from the one game (ESS v freo).
    Good luck everyone today.

    • Stirlsy says:

      Iv ended up doing same Hedski, after checking on my teams I had Dusty in a team Grads so instead of changing i just left it and put the Academy team in Graduates with one change, so now iv got 3 in it.
      That'll do me for the day.

  7. Stirlsy says:

    Its a fickle game this Draftstars caper was sitting 22nd last nite 32 from leader in port game @ 3QT you would be thinking at least ill win a prize, like id been around the mark most of nite around 40 off lead. But nooooo they just stopped and we slipped out of the money to finish 104th FICKLE at its best.
    Onwards and upwards we march into the JR contests today, going to play 2 teams in Graduates picked 1 on weds and 1 5 mins ago both will be Dusty free. And the last roll of the dice in Academy as i will of played to many payed games by the time this rolls around next year, this team has Dusty in it but looks weaker then the other 2 without him. see what happens there.

    I'd like to thank Higgo for all his time and effort he has put into this form of the game and look forward to meeting up here again next season for some more joy and frustration.
    Good luck to all who play today Community and have a safe off season.

    • TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

      Yeah fickle sometimes you look on the money then they just dont get the ball in the end.

      Tossed up between buddy and heeney yesterday in the $30k of course went heeney at the same price. If chose buddy would have finished around 25.

      Went bellchambers today in.the $50k as as cheap ruck and walla cheap defender looking good so far..

  8. Defying_Madness says:

    Well Hooker as a late over screwed up my $2 mini. Nailed my other selections also… still sitting top 100

  9. Stirlsy says:

    Racing in the last JR special

    • Stirlsy says:

      4 Teams entered and 3 of em have been to the top, gota like that, 3rd, 21st, and 36th in Graduates 54th Academy slipped a bit there.
      Lek in top ten woohoo
      Where u go Hedski you started well and Kev was around the mark, my 2 that have been to the top in Grads swapped positions that qtr.

      • hedski says:

        Had two payouts in the grads, 20th and 23rd plus got a few bucks back in the $2 mini, mid 20s in the academy I think. Not a bad weekend. My third team in the grads came in around 120th.

  10. Defying_Madness says:

    Just looked back at my previous contests and apparently I came second on Friday nights beat Barry contest. Was so close to $5000

  11. SC_Kev7 says:

    Had a horrid fade out in graduates. Grand total of 7 points from my forward line combo of Castagna and Rioli in the second half…

    Congrats to gator!

  12. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    I thought i had figured this out with a middie team the way to go but the good old GnR team in the academy nearly got the chockies. Does help when a "g" is dusty.
    Middie without dusty in the grads just average.

  13. Stirlsy says:

    Playing tonite its mummy and the crows team see how that works.

  14. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    Playing in the mini on Sat night finished out of the money just at full time 60 pts a piece.

    However as there was 2 extra 5 mins qtrs my players were in everything and ended up in the money. Only $4 but $4 more than i had at the end of the game b4 time on.

    Was a nice surprise/bonus.

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