The JR Academy – Week 12

Filed in DFS, Draftstars by on August 17, 2017 • views: 1509

JR-Academy-Web-Post-Image

THE ACADEMY – WEEK 12

This week’s Academy and Graduate game will feature  FREMANTLE V RICHMOND. 

Before getting to the JR Draftstars, I would like to highlight three significant promotions for your consideration;

1. The FREE PLAY JR Academy Competition with $100 in prizes on offer.

2. The $2 JR Graduate Competition offering a vast overlay(explained below)

3. A first-time Draftstars sign-up offer for those yet to join (Jock will be emailing the details of this shortly to those eligible).


 The Academy Ladder after 11 gamesAcadLad-AUG-17

ENTER THIS WEEK’S JOCK REYNOLDS DRAFTSTARS ACADEMY CONTEST HERE


The Graduates LadderGradLaddAUG-17

WEEK 7 Graduate Prize Pool Explained

Last week saw a significant boost to the JR Graduate competition prize pool. While 146 entrants each paid an entrance fee of $2 (146 x $2 = $292), the prize pool was a staggering $650! This meant that there was an additional prize “overlay” of $358.

When the odds of a successful outcome are stacked heavily in your favour it’s time to play!

Calculating the expected return on last week’s JR Graduate Competition;

When considering any wager one must weigh up the odds and expected return or most likely outcome to result from the bet. Below I have detailed some simplistic mathematics relating to last week’s contest.

Expected Return = Probability of Winning x Average Win Return – Probability of Losing x Amount of Loss

Probability of Winning = 0.58 (85 people collected a prize out of the 146 entrants … 85/146)

Average Win Return = $7.56 (Prizes scaled down from 1st – $97.50 to 85th – $1.30 … $650/85 = $7.56)

Probability of Losing = 1 – Pr(win) = 1 – 0.58 = 0.42

Amount of Loss = $2

Expected Return = 0.58 x $7.56 – 0.42 x $2

= $3.54

In last week’s contest, your expected return on your $2 investment was $3.54 ….. SIGNIFICANT!!

ENTER THE ‘JOCK REYNOLDS GRADUATES’ CONTEST HERE – $2 BUY-IN


And now to this week’s game – FREMANTLE v RICHMOND

Domain Stadium, Sunday, August 20, 4.40pm AEST

With both teams coming off disappointing losses and some tantalising sideshows – the return of Harley Bennell, Martin V Fyfe, Richmond’s forward line, Fremantle’s ruck division, the Lachie Neale midfield void ….. this game will be an intriguing affair.

Game Notes

  • Average team Draftstars Pts/Game; FREMANTLE- 1544 (16th ranked), RICMOND 1530 (18 th ranked)
  • Last time they met (MCG Rd.8);
    • Draftstars Pts. – FREMANTLE 1745, RICMOND 1441
    • Possessions – FREMANTLE 402, RICMOND 360
    • Cothchin(94 Pts.) tagged by Blakely(97 points)
    • Walters had 38 possessions(137 pts)
    • Bradley Hill had 25 kicks and 11 marks(123 pts)
    • Rance(73 pts) on McCarthy(63 pts) and Astbury(66 pts) on Kersten(98 pts)
  • Richmond have won four of their past five games at Domain Stadium.
  • Both teams have similar scoring ranks; Fremantle average 73 pts/game(ranked 18th), Richmond 86 pts/game(13th)
  • While both teams are ranked very closely in disposals, clearances, tackles and stoppages, Richmond’s defence outranks Fremantle’s significantly; Fremantle concede 95 pts/game(15th) Richmond concede 78 points/game(2nd)
  • EXPECTED TEAM CHANGES FROM LAST TIME THEY MET
    • Notable INS: Richmond will add Prestia and Vlaustin, Fremantle will add Harley Bennell and Stephen Hill
    • Notable OUTS: Richmond will be without Caddy, Fremantle will be without Walters, Blakely, Neale and Sandilands.

While it seems hard to mount a case for the out of form and depleted Fremantle side, I feel that they will be competitive in their last home game for the 2017 AFL season.

While I am not prepared to risk a $10,000 spend on Harley Bennell, young Fremantle defenders such as Weller, Ryan and Hughes are of interest to me in this contest as I do forecast another high inside 50m count from the Tigers. I am anticipating the return of Sheridan who, at this stage, I have placed in my team – this of course is subject to change once final teams are announced.

Value hunting will also be an important consideration as I see Martin, Cotchin and Prestia potentially getting the better of Fremantle’s tired and depleted midfield most probably consisting of Fyfe, Mundy and the Hill brothers. Whispers do surround the possible inclusion of the rookie mid, Jack Graham for the Tigers. If he plays he will be hard to pass up on.

Let’s now consider the Fantasy Insider game point projections;


 

Fantasy Insider Game Forecasts

NameTeamPositionPriceProjectionSDFloorCeiling$/Pt.
Dustin MartinRICFWD15900117.623.5294.07164.64135.2
Nat FyfeFREMID1575097.118.9878.11135.07162.2
Lachie NealeFREMID1410095.827.4868.31150.76147.18
Dion PrestiaRICMID1380087.725.7961.9139.29157.35
Trent CotchinRICMID1375010023.1876.82146.36137.5
Bachar HouliRICDEF1305099.522.7776.72145.04131.15
Luke RyanFREDEF1275078.536.6741.82151.84162.42
Shaun GriggRICMID125509319.0773.92131.14134.94
Stephen HillFREMID1240080.121.4658.63123.02154.8
Brandon EllisRICMID122509022.467.59134.81136.11
Josh CaddyRICMID1225092.722.0670.64136.82132.14
Sean DarcyFRERK1220081.51368.49107.51149.69
David MundyFREMID1205076.922.3154.58121.52156.69
Bradley HillFREMID1205087.228.5458.65144.28138.18
Kane LambertRICMID113508925.2963.7139.59127.52
Toby NankervisRICRK1080084.418.3266.07121.05127.96
Lachlan WellerFREDEF105007118.8652.13108.73147.88
Michael JohnsonFREDEF1035066.520.346.19107.1155.63
Jack RiewoldtRICFWD1020084.119.4964.6123.09121.28
Alex RanceRICDEF102007318.8854.11110.76139.72
Nick VlastuinRICDEF1015074.417.0957.3108.58136.42
Darcy TuckerFREMID1005067.222.0945.1111.39149.55
Shane EdwardsRICFWD1005066.618.2148.38103.03150.9
Danyle PearceFREMID940071.219.9551.24111.11132.02
Daniel RioliRICFWD935062.716.1846.5195.07149.12
David AstburyRICDEF935071.317.9753.32107.24131.13
Nick SubanFREMID930057.920.4137.4898.72160.62
Kamdyn McIntoshRICMID925066.717.5949.1101.88138.68
Ethan HughesFREDEF920066.620.9245.67108.45138.13
Cameron SutcliffeFREDEF895066.217.0349.16100.26135.19
Cam McCarthyFREFWD875058.419.139.2996.6149.82
Nathan BroadRICDEF860063.112.8750.2288.85136.29
Matt TabernerFREFWD840059.122.5436.55104.19142.13
Shane KerstenFREFWD820049.724.5225.1798.74164.98
Hayden BallantyneFREFWD810052.920.0632.8393.03153.11
Jason CastagnaRICDEF800063.323.6239.67110.55126.38
Griffin LogueFREDEF765050.816.4834.3183.76150.59
Ivan SoldoRICRK750066.612.0154.5890.62112.61
Corey EllisRICMID740054.117.4236.6788.95136.78
Brennan CoxFREDEF730050.315.3934.981.08145.12
Joel HamlingFREDEF700052.318.2634.0388.83133.84
Daniel ButlerRICFWD700059.218.0341.1695.26118.24
Joshua Deluca-CardilloFREMID690045.7045.745.7150.98
Dylan GrimesRICDEF640053.215.8837.3184.96120.3

What a significant resource! Thanks again to Darryl and his team at Fantasy Insider for allowing The JR Community to access this resource. For those wanting to examine forecasts for other games this week, click the link below.

In exciting news, Darryl and the team are opening up the lineup cruncher for FREE USE to all and sundry.. I highly recommend you leverage this opportunity to your benefit.

BIG NEWS: Fantasy Insider are allowing FREE USE of the lineup cruncher – use the best tool in the business here


 Lineups for FRE v RIC;

Team Peter_Higgo v Fantasy Insider

weekly-lineupFRE-v-RIC

As discussed earlier, my team is based on the selection of Sheridan and non-selection of young Jack Graham – this team is very likely to change!

It is interesting to note that the Fantasy Insider machine learning tool and its LineUp cruncher has landed on a stacked Tiger team. I feel it may not be quite so one-sided so I am more than happy to have 5 of my 9 players from Fremantle. This may prove just the point of difference that my team will need to win!


 So Before I hand over to you in the comments, please take the time to complete this pre-lockout selection pole.

It is hoped that this tool will provide you with who The JR Community feel are “locks” for this contest. It may also affirm a player you like as a nice POD!

Which of the following top end players (choose up to FIVE) will make your starting lineup?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

 

DraftStars Feature Contest

 

ENTER THE ‘JOCK REYNOLDS GRADUATES’ CONTEST HERE – $2 BUY-IN

ENTER THIS WEEK’S ACADEMY CONTEST HERE

 

Kind regards,

Peter J Higginbotham

BIG NEWS: Fantasy Insider are allowing FREE USE of the lineup cruncher – use the best tool in the business here

DFS_post_cruncher-(1)

Tags: ,

Comments (48)

Trackback URL | Comments RSS Feed

  1. Stirlsy says:

    Congrats again Higgo on your stunning victory. And on shooting to the top of Graduates Ladder.
    Interesting contest this one, you would think Dusty comes to town this week, and the weather might play a part as well yet another front coming through Perth but its looking like late Saturday at this stage but something to think about.
    As is the norm ill revisit this after teams are final.
    Yr getting the hang of this Jock heard you say picking or looking at rucks first in your podcast, a few of regs talked about this very early on when this started up and that's where i look first also.

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      Thank you Stirlsy.

      The Ruck choices are limited for this contest; Darcy($12,200), Nankervis($10,800) and Soldo($7,500). While I have selected Soldo in my team above, I find it hard to see him hitting even as much as 60 pts. I have little confidence in Nankervis also and as such I am seriously considering a re-jig to make room for Darcy. Stephen Hill may become Jack Graham.

      • Stirlsy says:

        Yep tuesday i had Darcy in but Soldo is now it, agree his only good for 60 and if he doesn't get to 40 45 at HT yr in trouble with him as tigs bench him a fair bit in 2nd half but they couldn't do that last week because they were a rotation down.
        Just finished telling Patch if Graham is in ill be pulling it apart a bit.

  2. SC_Kev7 says:

    I like B. Hill here. Averaging 96 at home. Before last week had one score under 92 in his past 8.

  3. TheGameSC says:

    Prestia is the man.

  4. Patch says:

    Having a very hard look at Mundy this week. With Neale out he's going to have to collect more of the ball and none of their ins are filling me with confidence that we'll see them getting significant midfield minutes. Could blow up in my face though, as he's had a putrid year.

  5. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    Has anyone ever scored over 990?

    I see there's a comp beat target score of 990 and win.

    Surely they r having a lend.

    Would need every player to play out of their skins to even go close to that.

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      Yes! A score of 1001 landed team robmannus $34k …. http://blog.draftstars.com.au/news/afl/perth-punt

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      It has gone off 2 or 3 times from memory, Trigga, and yeah, you need everything to go right. A popular way to go about it is stacking as much as you can and then maybe a cheapie or two from other games to make it work

      $1 outlay for 30k this week. I'll be having a dip

    • BarronVonCrow says:

      Tried it on the NRL yesterday. It was a spectacular fail, one that should be put in the record books.

      Of course I know exactly jack and shit about NRL, so that's a good excuse.

    • Stirlsy says:

      It's sort of like going to one of them fountains and throwing money into it Trigga, plenty do it but get nothing for it.
      Big Bucks but it don't interest me at all.

  6. BarronVonCrow says:

    Jumping back on board DraftStars this week.

    Current lineup of

    Jack Riewoldt
    Matt Taberner
    Trent Cotchin
    Nat Fyfe
    Kamdyn McIntosh
    Shane Edwards
    Brennan Cox
    Brandon Ellis
    Sean Darcy

  7. Rick Grimes says:

    Anyone interested in Bennell at $10k?

    • Defying_Madness says:

      I am tossing up between Bennell and Reiwoldt

      • Stirlsy says:

        Not in the slightessssss bit interested in him wont get over 50 and ill take bets on it.
        Played 3 qtrs 3 weeks ago had 5 disposals for the game and 3 of them were in one bit of play 2hb and a kick.
        Then a week off due to a peel bye then last week 12 disposals with 2 over the top goals
        They wont push him, so expect him to line up on a HFF with no mid time.
        Pass for me

    • TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

      Yeah im gonna give him a go.
      I think draftstars is a middie game.
      Three times i have gone GnR and my gun failed to fire or the tne rookie just plain sucked.
      So think middies is the way to go unless the gun is a lock like kruez was against a weaker ruck.

      So that's the plan this week see how that goes

  8. Defying_Madness says:

    Soldo has been dropped. Forces us to pick Nank or Darcy. What do the community think?

  9. Tyruddanaut says:

    It's my first week playing this game and I think that I have hit a winning team, of course every team has and that's why they put it in, but the cheapness of some players is too hard to pass, so I have gone with a bit of Midpriced-Madness
    J Reiwoldt
    Dan Butler
    Stephen Hill
    Bradley Hill
    T Cotchin
    H Bennell
    B Houli
    A Rance
    T Nankkervis

  10. hedski says:

    Had Shiels in my "big 990" team and now he's a late out, shits me that you can't edit it. Bugger.

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      Ditto, hedski. I'm going garbage anyway but it's something they need to address

      • hedski says:

        Yeah had a shocker, needed 300+ from him!
        Playing you in losers prelim, first to go woo league, pretty tight but I think your melb boys will get you up.

        • SC_Kev7 says:

          Leave it up to me to have a deadset horrible Sunday, hedski! Been happening all year.

          How's the lineup looking for today's contest? Wasn't interested in Bennell at all start of the week but I've tinkered too much and I'm warming to him

      • Stirlsy says:

        LATE OUTS Think the only thing they could do is money back, but that stuffs prize pools and im pretty sure it would be covered in rules that I haven't bothered to read!
        Anyone else read them?
        Or you get the player that comes in as yr replacement but that might push you through the cap but doing yr money cold isn't right either is it covered in rules? Anyone know?

        • SC_Kev7 says:

          A rolling lockout should be easy enough to implement. Not spewing about it over a $1 contest, but I wouldn't be too impressed at copping a late out in the $15 ones

  11. hedski says:

    My "big 990" lineup.

    Lambert
    J. Riewoldt
    Oliver
    B. Hill
    Neal-Bullen
    Graham
    Hibbo
    Vlaustin
    Pederson.

    Has to be better than yesterdays effort.

  12. Stirlsy says:

    Settled on a team after the ruck change ups after team selections, going with 5 Tigs and 4 Dorks see how they go.

    Good Luck to those playing in the Community contests today.

  13. hedski says:

    Nice, I expected a bit more from Neal Bullen.

  14. Stirlsy says:

    Big first QTR from Kev has him on 990 pace.

    • Stirlsy says:

      Intriguing contest in Graduates tighter then Crouchings abs nothing in it at the halfway mark 30pts cover the top 25 will one of them win? Or can someone like a Higgo or God help me Stirlsy come out of the pack.

  15. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    Nice win in the academy Kev.
    Not too far shy of the magical 990.
    Gr8 work mate.

  16. hedski says:

    Onya Jack.

  17. Stirlsy says:

    Nice effort Hedski 5th the heavy tigs team was the way to go.

  18. Stirlsy says:

    I ended up playing in the $2 mini today, winners score 993

    1st
    0
    MikeMagic993.00
    FWDJack Riewoldt
    RICH @ FRE
    (F)
    61.00
    FWDDustin Martin
    RICH @ FRE
    (F)
    124.00
    MIDShaun Grigg
    RICH @ FRE
    (F)
    153.00
    MIDBrandon Ellis
    RICH @ FRE
    (F)
    108.00
    MIDKane Lambert
    RICH @ FRE
    (F)
    108.00
    MIDJacob Townsend
    RICH @ FRE
    (F)
    107.00
    DEFBachar Houli
    RICH @ FRE
    (F)
    128.00
    DEFDylan Grimes
    RICH @ FRE
    (F)
    64.00
    RKToby Nankervis
    RICH @ FRE
    (F)
    140.00

    • Stirlsy says:

      So it can be done the 990 this isn't my team but the winners i wonder if he put it in the 990.

      • hedski says:

        Other winners name was jayk123, he also had the team that came 3rd with 989! 1 more point and he would have got 2 bites! Another $4k, sure he's happy wit $17k tho.
        Can't see that team name in top 50 (mikemagic)

  19. Stirlsy says:

    Nice going Hedski, ….2 in the same week over 990 unreal