NRL Supercoach Round 23 – LET THE STALKING BEGIN!

Filed in NRL Fantasy 2017, NRL Supercoach, NRL Supercoach 2017 by on August 9, 2017 • views: 1356

CowboyRound23

The Head to Head Finals have arrived and it’s time to play games with our opponents.

I can’t stress how important it is to keep the integrity of your side while messing with your opponent. I’ve seen many coaches forgetting to either change their VC/C choices or even to rotate their reserves back to their original preferences. It’s always fun to play mind games but just don’t let it backfire on you!

Many of us are in multiple head to head finals and playing mind games isn’t as easy. My only advice is to check both yours and your opponent’s teams multiple times throughout each round; and ALWAYS check the rolling lockout timer!  

Overall players are in a different boat but the principal remains the same. Don’t do anything foolish when stalking other teams and always go with your gut when making your decisions.

POD Trades (Under 10% Ownership)

There’s nothing wrong with trading in a player you plan to use on just one or two occasions, but only if you’re primarily playing for H2H glory and you have a few trades up your sleeve. We first need to identify the defensively weak opponents but also the players that are capable of piling on the points.

The Warriors, Titans, Tigers, Knights, Rabbitohs and even the Sea Eagles are currently leaking plenty of points when playing quality teams. Keep an eye on the teams who will be playing these defensively weak sides.

  • Solid PODs are normally found among the backs but if you’re looking for a consistent forward then Aaron Woods ($465.1k FRF) could be an option. He’s been scoring quite well over the past ten weeks and has an impressive five round average of 77 PPG. In fact he’s one of just four FRFs averaging over 70 PPG in the past five weeks. Keep him in mind if you’re looking for a change in your forwards.
  • Mitchell Moses ($389.1k FE) is one of the better PODs on offer this week. Well, he was a much better pick up weeks ago but he still comes with plenty of scoring potential and a reasonable price tag. Not only has he averaged 76.8 PPG over the past five weeks but he also has a very favourable draw; playing the Knights, Titans and Rabbitohs before season’s end. Try to get him in this week because he comes with a Break Even of -36 and is expected to increase in value by over $50k.
  • Matthew Wright ($347.1k CTW) is a high risk option but is looks to be in great form. Manly have a very favourable draw approaching; playing the Tigers, Bulldogs and Warriors over the next week three weeks. Wright has scored four tries in his past three matches and we’re assuming he’ll hold the goal kicking duties through to season’s end. Take the punt if you’re looking for a CTW with extremely low ownership. He’s averaging 70.3 PPG over the past three weeks and should continue to produce good scores.

Captain/Vice-Captain Choices

We’ve got plenty of Vice-Captain options to choose from due to the high number of strong favourites. Those of us with AE nightmares may need to take a gamble by throwing the big C on one of these players. We’re all looking to get ahead somehow and this how we should do it.

We also need to keep in mind that our Head to Head opponents may be basing their VC and C options off who we choose. If we decide to take the gamble early in the round, we’re simply giving our opponents more options to choose from.

  • Cameron Smith, Paul Gallen and Nathan Brown are once again the safety choices and even Simon Mannering should be considered now that he’s returned to lock. Two of these options play on Friday, one on Saturday and one on Sunday so there’s no shortage of worthy Vice-Captains to choose from.
  • The SuperCoach Community have been throwing around Cody Walker’s name as a viable VC option against the Bulldogs. Walker had a solid game last week and scored a respectable 74 points against the Dragons, but something is telling me that throwing the VC on him this week is a bad idea. There are plenty of better options available this round. The Bulldogs may be in poor form but they’re also known to put in a decent defensive effort from time to time. This could spell disaster for the already inconsistent Walker.
  • Semi Radradra/Corey Norman/Mitchell Moses are playing against the Knights on Friday night and should be considered for your VC. Don’t be discouraged by the lack of points the Knights’ have let though against their past two opponents (Dragons and Warriors). The Eels are a much better side than these two and are capable of tearing the Newcastle defence apart. In fact, the last time the Knights played against teams worthy of the finals were in rounds 19 (Broncos) and 20 (Roosters). They managed to concede 62 points during those two weeks so we can’t rule out a dominating performance from the Eels this week.
  • Gareth Widdop and the Dragons have been a little inconsistent lately but they’ll be up against a team that let through over 50 points last weekend. Even the Tigers managed to score 26 points against the Titans in the week prior so I think Widdop will be one of the more popular VC choices for round 22. Those of us with AE nightmares could even consider putting Widdop as our captain as we’d have to expect high involvement and plenty of points from conversions against the defensively weak side.
  • Billy Slater is always a solid Vice-Captain choice but we should we wary of his opponent this week. We were all a bit shocked witnessing Manly put 36 points on the Roosters last round. The Roosters normally put up a strong fight and it’s rare for a team of their calibre to leak significant points in back to back weeks. They also welcome back Jake Friend and Boyd Cordner so we should expect the Chooks to be well prepared when they play the Storm on Saturday evening.
  • Jordan Rapana has a lousy five round average of 47.6 PPG but he repaid the faithful with a 72 point effort against the Sharks last week. Would it be reckless to throw the VC on Rapana after one solid performance? Absolutely not! The Warriors are seriously struggling through this stage of the season and Rapana should be able to cross the line at least once. There’s no need for concern that he’s playing on Sunday, you could always throw the captaincy on Tom Trbojevic who’ll be up against the Tigers in the following match.
  • Tom Trbojevic is a great Captain choice for round 23. He’s producing a five round average of 88.6 PPG and he’s up against one of the most defensively weak teams in the comp. Keep in mind that he scored 131 points when he last played the Tigers and that was just four weeks ago in round 19. Tommy Turbo will be one of the most captained players for round 23.

 

Top 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and are named in the starting side this week)

Kodi Nikorima ($271.9k HOK/FE): -39

Mitchell Moses ($389.1k FE): -36

Nathaniel Roache ($254k HOK/FLB): -36

Brock Lamb ($283.5k FE/HB): -33

Damien Cook ($264.8k HOK): -33

Bottom 5 Break Evens

(Must have played 2 games and are named in the starting side this week)

Simon Mannering ($512.5k 2RF): 133

Nathan Cleary ($527k HB): 132

Gareth Widdop ($464.3k FE/HB): 131

Wade Graham ($414k 2RF): 118

Aidan Sezer ($351.3k HB): 113

Team List Tuesday

Dane Gagai has been moved to fullback for the injured Nathan Ross

Ben Hunt is named at hooker (but may come from the bench again)

James Segeyaro has returned to the bench

Tohu Harris and Cameron Munster won’t play this week

Matt Moylan and Dean Whare are again named among the reserves

Coen Hess will start in the second row

Issac Luke will play from the bench

Predictions

Semi Radradra to crack 70 points

Tom Trbojevic to crack 90 points

Cody Walker will fail to crack 60 points

 

That’s it for this week,  feel free to leave your comments below, or

Twitter : @CKings_Cowboy

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Comments (20)

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  1. FEARTHEBEARD says:

    Need some advise lads.

    Playing finals against 1 of my best mates for over two decades.

    Very competitive the pair of us lol.

    I am tossing up trading out Moylan for DCE (which he has) as a counter.

    OR

    Do I ditch Tohu Harris for Semi against the Knights?

    • Coach_Cowboy says:

      That's a tough choice mate because Moylan seems to be closer to returning than Harris although I think DCE will score better through til the end of the season. DCE should score better this weekend too. Do you think the rest of your team will outscore his? If so, do the Moylan > DCE trade IMO.

      • FEARTHEBEARD says:

        Thanks Cowboy.

        This is current set up (my teams on left):

        Ryan James – James Roberts
        Rapana – Curtis Scott
        BJ Leuilia – D Edwards
        D Walker – RTS (have RTS benched him)

        Thats if I take DCE.

        My current squad is

        Smith
        Gallen, Fifita, R James
        Trbo, Mannering, Taumalolo, De Belin, SBurgess
        Widdop
        D Walker, Moylan (if I don't swap to DCE via moving Widdop down)
        Rapana, BJ Leuila, Crichton, T Trbo. (Got Harris & Scott & Brown on bench here) could ditch Harris for Semi.
        Tedesco, RTS.

        Thoughts?

        • Coach_Cowboy says:

          BJ/Rapana Vs Warriros and James should easily outscore Scott V Roosters, Edwards V Cows and Roberts V Sharks. D Walker should also score well against the Tigers and I can't see RTS doing that well against the Raiders who seems to finally be pulling their finger out. I don't think any trades are necessary but you could always do one as a precaution.

          • FEARTHEBEARD says:

            Thanks Cowboy.

            So with that said.

            DCE for Moylan?

            Semi for Tohu?

            None of the above and hope Moylan plays?

  2. Jason says:

    Can't believe we are seriously talking about Moses! I bought him for the byes when he joined Parra (although I wouldn't have admitted it at the time due to fear of be ridiculed lol) and have had him as a NPR since then. Missed both his 100+ scores. Playing him for sure this week, hope his form continues. Great read!

    • Coach_Cowboy says:

      Yeah he's surprised me too mate. He's showing no signs of slowing down either!

      Thanks heaps Jason!

  3. Coach_Cowboy says:

    I completely forgot to post my regular spiel about my rank in this article. Jumped 29 spots to 306th which surprised me as I have no hooker haha.

  4. Sam says:

    Do I waste my last 3 trades trying to get Cleary and slater or try get Moses jdb and save a trade

    • Coach_Cowboy says:

      Tough choice. Moses' run home is gold and I reckon he'll score plenty. Slater is fairly reliable though and Cleary seems to be semi-reliable I guess. I'd actually go the Moses/JDB option and hold a trade just in case mate.

  5. geoff says:

    Tohu-Rapana locked in, however really tempted to burn my last trade and go Munster to Jurbo as well. Playing both OA and h2h makes it tough but I'd say I'm mostly for going for that key ring.
    Worth noting that Jurbo has the Tigers warriors panthers and another average team for memory. Smells like big scores so do I pull the trigger?

    • Coach_Cowboy says:

      Bulldogs are the other team Manly are playing so nice and easy. Yeah he could go ballistic and Munster has been average but we know what he's capable of. I don't think it's a right or wrong move mate. If Jurbo doesn't get at least one attacking stat per game he could continue his 50-60 point scores. Tough choice! I'd save the trade but go with your gut Geoff.

  6. Westy says:

    Nice work Coach.

    1214 points this week. Up almost 900 places to about 4300.
    Not really into h2h but despite having done relatively well through the year on a points basis – came 11th, 8th and 9th in my 3 leagues.

  7. Chubby McChubby says:

    Love your work Cowboy. Have 5 trades left. Thinking c.walker to slater. Still have Gutho as reserve fe. Thinking either Gutho to keary or moses. have Milf on ground. Or swinging d.walker from ctw to fe reserve and picking up a ctw for Gutho. Have Crichton, semi, rapana, Edwards, tofu and nuff in ctw

    • Chubby McChubby says:

      Or could swing Turbo from fb to ctw and upgrade Edwards or c.walker to billy

    • Coach_Cowboy says:

      Cheers Chubby.
      I REALLY like Moses for the run home due to his draw and recent form. I'd go Gutho to Moses this week. if you can get Billy next week (because you have plenty of trades) for Walker I'd do that too

  8. Coach_Cowboy says:

    Is that possible? As in, can you free up some cash to do that for next week (Calker to Billy)?