The JR Academy – Week 8

Filed in DFS, Draftstars by on 20/07/2017 • views: 4165

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The Academy – Week 8

Greetings to all once again for another exciting week of Daily Fantasy combat.

This week’s Academy and Graduate game will be played out over the COLLINGWOOD v WEST COAST game – a contest that has me excited to say the least … but more of this after the JR Ladders.

 The Academy Ladder AcadLad-JULY-20

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS FULL LADDER(only includes players who have competed each week)

A big week from our good friend, Sven (team sveneris)! He has opened up a 60 point lead and based on average contest rank is fast emerging as our resident DFS expert. It would be wonderful, once again, to hear from our Sweedish marvel in the comments below – I for one will be scanning this post at frequent intervals waiting in joyful hope for his weekly tips.

Special mention also to The_GameSC who is rocketting up the charts.

Can Defying peg Sven back this week? Will STIRLSY redeem himself? Will team Peter_Higgo claw himself back onto the boards?!!

ENTER THIS WEEK’S JOCK REYNOLDS DRAFTSTARS ACADEMY CONTEST HERE

The Graduates LadderGradLaddJULY-20

Given that the Graduates Ladder is based purely on ROI(return on investment), it comes as no surprise that first time successful players appear quickly at the top of the charts. Congratulations to team carear and I encourage this player to strive to maintain this most prestigious of JR Graduate positions.

Congratulations also to the those legends of The Academy whose skills have successfully been applied in the $2 pay-to-play environment, having them appear on both ladders.

ENTER THE ‘JOCK REYNOLDS GRADUATES’ CONTEST HERE – $2 BUY-IN

 

And now to this week’s game – COLLINGWOOD v WESTCOAST – SUNDAY, 3.20pm, Etihad Stadium

I have made the decision to take a slightly different tact in my pre-game preparations.

This week, game based data will be supplied solely by the good folk at Fantasy Insider. I do concede that their forecasting tools are superior to mine and using these will afford me the time to delve deeper into the all-important game day match-ups and potential peculiarities.

It has become abundantly clear to me thus far in my DFS explorations that data alone forms but one layer of the team line-up formation process. Data that is carefully blended with game specific insights such as match-ups, venue, history and additional “human motivational factors” all come together in a wonderful strategic pre-game symphony.

Fantasy Insider Game Forecasts
NameTeamPositionPriceProjectionSDFloorCeiling$/Pt.
Steele SidebottomCOLMID15550111.121.5389.56154.17139.96
Andrew GaffWCEMID14800104.920.4484.45145.79141.08
Taylor AdamsCOLMID14800108.923.9584.94156.81135.9
Adam TreloarCOLMID14150108.519.3889.11147.26130.41
Brodie GrundyCOLRK13800114.224.1190.08162.43120.84
Matt PriddisWCEMID1335094.519.4875.01133.46141.26
Luke ShueyWCEMID133509918.7380.26136.47134.84
Jack CrispCOLMID1330088.518.4870.01125.46150.28
Elliot YeoWCEFWD1295093.127.2165.88147.53139.09
Josh ThomasCOLMID1260078.127.6750.42133.44161.33
Sam MitchellWCEMID123008716.2370.76119.46141.37
Jack ReddenWCEMID1215074.818.3856.41111.56162.43
Jeremy HoweCOLDEF1210088.221.5666.63131.33137.18
Alex FasoloCOLFWD1135076.520.6755.82117.84148.36
Jamie ElliottCOLFWD113008120.7260.27122.45139.5
Josh J. KennedyWCEFWD1130081.928.7753.12139.45137.97
Will Hoskin-ElliottCOLFWD1125084.417.9266.47120.24133.29
Jordan de GoeyCOLMID1110078.418.859.59116.01141.58
Dom SheedWCEMID1110081.823.7958129.38135.69
Liam DugganWCEMID1100066.820.2846.51107.36164.67
Jamie CrippsWCEFWD1100072.522.3550.14117.21151.72
Daniel WellsCOLMID10800867.878.19101.61125.58
Mark LeCrasWCEFWD1075075.823.1352.66122.07141.82
Chris MastenWCEMID1060077.422.1155.28121.63136.95
Jeremy McGovernWCEDEF1055072.918.8254.07110.55144.71
Brayden MaynardCOLDEF1055073.821.2252.57116.25142.95
Jack DarlingWCEFWD1050070.417.5752.82105.54149.14
Ben ReidCOLDEF1050074.819.0155.78112.82140.37
Shannon HurnWCEDEF1000071.221.8249.37114.84140.44
Tom LangdonCOLDEF1000074.518.4556.04111.4134.22
Matt ScharenbergCOLDEF99506814.0153.9896.03146.32
Nathan VardyWCERK980063.617.1346.4697.87154.08
Lewis JettaWCEMID970063.418.0645.3399.53152.99
Scott LycettWCEFWD930073.524.5148.98122.52126.53
Mark HutchingsWCEMID90006423.7240.27111.45140.62
Brad SheppardWCEDEF890058.414.0344.3686.46152.39
Tom BarrassWCEDEF860055.215.2839.9185.77155.79
Jarryd BlairCOLFWD845062.516.6245.8795.74135.2
Darcy MooreCOLFWD845063.419.843.59103.01133.28
Lynden DunnCOLDEF830058.512.1546.3482.81141.88
Travis VarcoeCOLFWD830065.716.9648.7399.63126.33
Tyson GoldsackCOLDEF795054.115.1638.9384.43146.95
Will SchofieldWCEDEF640041.914.9426.9571.79152.74

What a significant resource! Thanks again to Darryl and his team at Fantasy Insider for allowing The JR Academy to access this resource. For those wanting to examine forecasts for other games this week, click the link below – you may want to make use of the free trial that is currently available;

www.fantasyinsider.com.au 

My Game Specific Considerations

This promises to be an extremely interesting contest for a number of reasons;

1. Pendlebury Is Not Playing

Who is likely to step in and play more midfield time? Will Adams come up from defence or perhaps Sidebottom will come off his wing. Could it be the inclusion of Greenwood that fills the Pendlebury void?

The answer to this key question will have a great influence on not one but potentially a number of players and their point output.

2. BOTH Collingwood and West Coast are recognised tagging teams

Greenwood should return this week and if so, the most likely outcome for him will be to tag. This year Greenwood has put a hard tag on Selwood, Shiel, Hibberd and Merrett. In other games he has rotated through the midfield, completing tagging jobs at various stages within the game as required. Interestingly, the one week where Greenwood was released, against Fremantle, he scored 111 Draftstars points.

There are many unknowns and challenges to be considered if Greenwood is named that will have a direct result on player point forecasts.

While Hutchings’ role is less-complicated, who he will tag is an unknown. Will it be Treloar, who has been targeted at stages this year, or will it be Sidebottom? WestCoast may even decide to use Hutchings in a forward defensive tagging role on Howe, as teams have done this year quite successfully.

Correctly forecasting the role of Greenwood and Hutchings are key game considerations this week.

3. The game is being played at Etihad Stadium

Etihad is undoubtedly a “fast track”. The firm surface and predictable conditions, in my opinion, favour fast athletic running types. High team possession, quick play and high marking tallies are suited and as such certain players may be better suited to this ground – I must run some data on this!

Given the above, Etihad also seems to make the potential of a game “blow out” result more likely. In a remarkable season in terms of the closeness of game results, Etihad has delivered four 10+ goal margins and 13 5+ goal game winning margins. Do you forecast a one-sided affair or a close battle?

While West Coast are currently match favourites at $1.65, I feel that Collingwood will give a good showing on Sunday.

4. WestCoast are playing away from home

WestCoast’s inability to win away, or more specifically, in Melbourne, was given a solid run via media channels earlier this season. Is this still a factor?

While there may be data to support this claim in games at the MCG, this season The Eagles have played three games at Etihad for two wins (Rd.1 NTH, Rd.15 WBD) and one loss (Rd. 9 ESS).

Insufficient data to weigh into line-up reasoning.

Team Lineups for COL v WCE – Team Peter_Higgo v Fantasy Insider;

COLvWCE-Lineups

Away we go!

I am backing in Collingwood to perform well enough to produce a close game with Treloar to be the highest on-field point accumulator. Am I concerned about Hutchings? Yes.

How do you expect this contest play out?

It would be wonderful to discuss the game in detail in the comments below – STIRLSY, sveneris, Defying, The_GameSC, garysknobs, hedski ….. The Community needs your input!

 

ENTER THIS WEEK’S ACADEMY CONTEST HERE

 

ENTER THE ‘JOCK REYNOLDS GRADUATES’ CONTEST HERE – $2 BUY-IN

I am very much enjoying this interesting and highly tactical new form of Fantasy Football – I hope that you are too!

Kind regards,

Peter J Higginbotham

 Fantasy Insider have a two week free trial on the go at the minute, they also have a SuperCoach ‘who should I pick’ tool which may arouse you.. jump on over and give our great supporters a try!

DFS_post_cruncher-(1)

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Comments (37)

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  1. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    Thanks higgo.
    Any chance of posting the full ladder so we can see where us non superstars but lads that love to have a crack each week are positioned?

    My take this week is a middy flavour as not sure who will step up for pendles and who will get the tag.

    JJK and Yeo up fwd, gotta give hurn a run after last week and Sammy Mitchell and De goey in the guts.

    go well.

    .
    .

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      I have just included a link below the Academy Ladder. Enjoy!

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      Agree on De Goey, Trig. Another one to potentially benefit from Pendles absence.

      Cheapies look fairly thin this week, especially in the mids. Wells' price is injury affected and almost a lock for me.

      Not expecting young Jackson Nelson to blow the roof off the joint, but his 3 game form jumps to 62 when you take out his 17 he scored against Geelong when he hurt his hammy. For 7k he's a good value pick

      • Stirlsy says:

        I had Wells in a $2 mini game last week Kev, was flying in first half 62 then took a leave of absence scoring 16pts in 2nd half he played about 65% of game time, and im a bit worried about the hard ground with his calf but ill probably risk him on his first half last week.

        • SC_Kev7 says:

          Cheers for the insight on Wells, Stirlsy. He's head to head with Duggan atm. Duggan had a cracking game last week, though his floor scares me off

          • hedski says:

            I'm warming to DeGoey over Wells, can't trust his legs not to fall apart.

            • Stirlsy says:

              The hard ground scares me a little hedski but if he turns up he will ton up in this game ill risk him i think ATM

          • Stirlsy says:

            Duggan away avg is that brown stain stuff Jock is always on about, looked at him but passing, was the same last week a few here were big on Fisher i moved hell and high water to get him out of my teams.

  2. sveneris says:

    Higgo,
    thanks for the the positive feedback, I'm not 100% sure how I come to be at the top of the leader board in the Academy, but I do know as Sir Isaac Newton said in 1675: "If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants" , and yourself, Jock and Crouching (who was possibly already standing on 2 Rum cans) are those Giants on whose shoulders I have stood and who have allowed us all to look beyond the horizon into this new Draft Stars Frontier!
    Now, down to business,obviously waiting for final selections, but for now I reckon Grundy – lock, De Goey – lock, WHE – lock, Wells lock(ish), could disappoint…
    As with all formats it will be at the PODs where the game is won or lost.
    Thursday Night…3rd best night of the week- bring it on!
    regards
    Sven

  3. Stirlsy says:

    ARE frog droppings iv done a hedski edit the post and it went missing long bloody sa it was too.

  4. LEKD0G says:

    Love it Higgo!

  5. hedski says:

    Stringer killed us last round Higgo (scored equal with you) had Byrne as well which hurt.
    I'm with Trigga locking JJK and Yeo in my fwds, was thinking of stacking in WC favour but I've relented a bit and have included Wells with a few other pies ATM. Grundy vs Vardy is my dilemma so far, I want Grundy but Vards may snag a couple to boost his scoring, will be an interesting round.
    Congrats Sven and Defying you're killing it.
    Ha ha Stirlsy bloody frustrating when you type a big post then lose it and can't remember it all, cheers lads looking forward to this weeks challenge.

    • Stirlsy says:

      Well it went something like whats below…. Be careful stacking eagles mate its an away game for them and even tho its under the roof a ground they play ok at, if you look through eagle player avgs in Melbourne almost every player is lower avg.

      • hedski says:

        I think the eagles will be out to secure their top 8 spot Stirlsy so might be worth the risk.

  6. Stirlsy says:

    Last week I learnt something, never play 2 teams in 2 separate contests of the same game. Academy team score 688 v Graduates 761.
    At HT it didn't look to bad Acads 125th and the Grads were in top 5 and going nicely, the Agads lost 1 to inj and they started slipping through the rankings and finished for the day.
    The Grads moved to 2nd 20 pts off the lead mid way in the 3rd term and i was hopeful of a win or top 3 finish but hope didn't last long as the team decided that was enough for the day and went MIA for the rest of the game and i slipped back to finish a very avg 18th.
    Redeam myself you say Higgo, true right numbers man ill be after some redemption this Sunday.

    I also branched out into the pros circuit last week playing a $2 all round mini game finishing 34th and pocketing $4.55c making a huge profit of 55cents for the Day (Lolly shop here i come) ill be playing the same type of game this week as well.
    Learnt a little playing with the pros, as looking at there team lineups in this format you could see a bit of a pattern in the way teams are picked, ill keep this to myself and test it out b4 passing it along.
    I'll wait for teams to be final b4 discussing this weeks game, but agree with Sven, Grundy is a lock for me already.

  7. ThruffaThescrote says:

    GAJ – out, Goldstein OUT… L Ryan OUT….

  8. jockreynolds says:

    Sam Mitchell will be rested on Sunday lads – how's that going to impact the situation in the guts.. Higgo – I'm getting a feeling in the guts about Priddis with this news mate? What do you reckon lads?

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      Actually my "gut feel" is Redden based on this news.

      I have updated my lineup above given that Masten was not named. Yeo's 100th is also of great significance.

      I'm feeling much better with this new lineup and feel it will be quite unique.

      • Stirlsy says:

        There are a few players with milestones in this game Higgo, Yeo 100th JJK 200th and Shuey's 150th all good picks
        Unlike you Higgo im far from happy with my line up it looks very avg but i said that about the game i came 7th in, maybe its just the Pies who are very avg….

    • Stirlsy says:

      Was bypassing Mitch Jock had him in the $2 mini I played last week he had 1 great qtr and looked avg
      Still waiting for final trim to be done before commenting on this game.
      I think the whole round games would be ideal for you Jock and Higgo gives you a lot of flexibility picking from the lot instead of the 1 game.

  9. Stirlsy says:

    $2 All games mini Team.

    FWD- D.Robinson
    FWD- B.Dale
    MID-A.Neal-Bullen
    MID- J.Macrae
    MID- M.Bontempelli
    MID- Z.Merrett
    BAC- C.Glass
    Bac- D.Roberton
    Ruc- M.Daw

    • Stirlsy says:

      I kick off this game today and all players play today so ill be the sitting duck on Sunday, ill give you my score at end of nite games and position.

    • Stirlsy says:

      The Team finished up last nite and sits in 9th place, was around 50pts shy of what i was hoping for…
      Now its sit and watch how many pass me it pays down to 70th but im predicted to be out side that about 80th to 90th so will need bad luck to others to snare a prize.
      Higgo has 2 teams in this contest his sailing along out the back somewhere but should come home well today, I let him fill you in on his form.

  10. BoganJuniors says:

    Thanks Higgo for all your advice here
    Loving the draft stars format and as a very longstanding NSW member of the JR community glad to be able to take part in the graduates league.
    I think wih Mitchell out, the midfeild numbers for the Pridoris and the Shu will be up.

  11. Stirlsy says:

    OK iv settled on my lineup, still think it looks avg.
    Now I know i said i wouldn't play diff teams in same contest but im doing it but just 1 player diff a backman cos i was in between 2.
    I see this game as being pretty even pies are shit and eagles are missing something even in there home games they look very avg and we all know what there like away from home ….. yep shit…… so now we have a battle of the shits….. thinking it will be pretty even all day with the pies winning the game just, so iv picked the team based off of that..
    running a 5 pie 4 eagle setup and swap that around with the swapped backman 5 eagle 4 pie in other game. No Stacking for me.
    Grundy in the Ruck looks a must should ton up in this and Vardy is to risky even tho you can beef yr mids up if you take Vardy its not for me. Split mids 2 of each team and ill run with Wells 2nd game up 62 in first half last week to hard to ignore.
    Good Luck Community may your FANTASY come true.

  12. BrownlowBoy says:

    It says my account has been closed? Why would this be? I cannot login to Draftstars.

    • Stirlsy says:

      Send Jock or Higgo a msg

    • Defying_Madness says:

      My account was closed the other day also, draftstars require verification of your identity but once you send that your account should be back up and running. Just send their support team an email and they should help you out

  13. Defying_Madness says:

    Damn the graduates contest is full. I'll be sure to enter early next time

  14. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    Getting better inside top 50 this week.
    Varcoe injured
    He was going alright at that point
    I have an uncanny knack in this comp of picking a guy who gets injured during the game lol

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      You and me both, Trig! I had Moore (who was awful anyway, but still). Gaff completely locked down didn't help either. My contest was over pretty early

      Pies v Crows next week. Tex/Lynch should have a field day after JJK bullied his way around the Collingwood defence

  15. Stirlsy says:

    NO REDEMPTION HERE!

    Academy 44th score 780
    Graduates 14th score 753
    $2 All round mini 77th score 708
    Money 0000000000000000 for the week.
    No Fantasy joy here, the 6foot long legged blonde survives another week.