The JR Academy – Week 6

Filed in DFS, Draftstars by on 06/07/2017 • views: 3277

 

JockAcademy

The Academy – Week 6

Welcome to the sixth week of our communities beautiful journey into the arousing new world of daily fantasy footy folks!

As discussed with LekDog in the podcast this week, Higgo is presenting at the Institute for Advanced Statistical Theorems and Genius in Fantasy Footy (ASTAGIFF) Conference in Mildura this week so this is your old uncle Jock here to lead you to the promised lands of Daily Fantasy Mastery.

Straight off the bat – let’s have a quick squiz at a pictorial representation of the contest that forms the focus of our learning journey this week. Jump into the free contest, but especially smash an entry into the $2 contest extremely quickly if you’re keen, it’s limited to only 44 spots and she’s already half full:

Carlton v Melbourne Draftstars Contest

ENTER THE ACADEMY CONTEST HERE

1st – $100, 2nd – $50, 3rd – $30, 4th – 35th – $10

READY TO GRADUATE? ENTER THE $2 BUY-IN CONTEST HERE

The $2 graduates contest is open to all states folks

Now, what I’m about to say might surprise most you. You see.. I’m not real crash hot when it comes to numbers.

As hard as that might be to believe, it’s true. Higgo’s had the finger puppets out a few times to teach me a numerical trick or two, but I can’t stand here before you today and offer you much in the way of in-depth DOM analytical numbery.

But folks, the deeper and more vigorously I thrust myself into the world of Fantasy Footy – the more I’m coming to the realisation that that isn’t such a bad thing..

What we’re learning about Daily Fantasy Footy:

The discussion in the comments selection below has been bloody interesting.

I want to give you a few examples of some of our communities insights that have hit a chord with me;

“..well to be honest its a movable feast, a smorgasbord if you like… for entree some Contrarian Chicken skewers, (skewed) , then I had for mains, Mid priced Meatloaf with a side order of poached Guns and Rookies, and for dessert “stacked Pancakes. Nothing is more important though than Gut Feel and after feasting on good rankings I am satiated and fortunately won some coin to purchase a refreshing breverage.”Sveneris

“Avoid looking at a players average pts in isolation. Be sure to look deeper into performance across the year – often there can be 1 standout game that inflates a players average making them appear better value than they really are or 1 dud game that brings an average down and on face value makes them look an unattractive option” WinnrzRGrinnrz

“Not much to my strategy Higgo, minimal research and like Sven plenty of gut feel” Hedski

Let’s keep this discussing going below folks. Alone we can be strong. Together we can be downright bloody unbeatable.

So what’s become clear me at this stage of my journey?
  1. There is NO single universal strategy that you can apply to every contest
  2. Fantasy footy knowledge DOES count for a hell of a lot
  3. GUT FEEL does come into play
  4. Using the best TOOLS (and/or Higgo’s numerical insights) helps a hell of a lot – especially when you overlay your own knowledge and gut feel over what the tools provide for you
My selection process:

I like to start with the big pricks in the ruck. Seems more often than not that this selection is where a contest can be won and lost. I want to nail the best goliath.

This week? Very bloody interesting.

The rucks

Initially I’m aroused at the thought that Max Gawn appears a bit underpriced.

I’m also putting myself in the shoes of the majority of folk entering this contest.. will most pick Gawn given he’s a bloody beast and appears the value option? If that’s the case am I better of busting out a bit of contrarian strategy (learn more about the contrarian strategy here) and select the more expensive Kreuzer? He’s been a wrecking ball of late and based on recent form he could do anything..

What does the keeper of the best suite of Daily Fantasy tools reckon is my next thought construct.

Fantasy Insider’s player score projections blow my head off. Higgo took me though how it works with his finger puppets – my current understanding is that Fantasy Insider’s lineup crunchers use projections generated by machine learning to build a distribution of player performances in a range of metrics and then a Carlo/Monte Chain approach to simulating each match thousands of times. Yep. That’s how it all works folks.

Anyway – stuff me – Matthew Kreuzer is projected by Fantasy Insider to score more heavily this round than any other player in the entire competition across all bloody games. LOCK.

Kreauxer

Time for some gut feel.

You may have heard me discussing this week’s Academy contest with LekDog in the podcast this week. LekDog loves his Blues. And LekDog likes the look of the emerging Charlie Curnow. He had a season-high 22 touches of the seed and 97 Draftstars points last week. Form has been building. Good enough for me Lek.

So how’s my lineup looking?

Picks

A bit sparse. A bit sparse.

I’ll have the butcher’s paper out over the coming days to leverage my extensive fantasy footballing knowledge towards identifying some more value here.. but for the time being I’m heading over to Fantasy Insider to let their formidable machine learning lineup cruncher fill in my lineup.

Lineup

 

Don’t mind the look of that.

Cripps has been growing back into the ball gathering pill slurry we know and love. Even Daisy bloody Thomas looked half decent last week.

The other thing that gives me a bit of trouser stimulation is how heavily the bastard’s stacked with Carlton players. Team stacking is when you play devil’s avacado and fly in the face of what the odds are suggesting. Melbourne will be favourites, so for many – picking more Melbourne players makes sense. By saying “stuff that” and going against the odds, if Carlton get up I’ll be competing against less in the contest.

Still some tweaking to be made but happy to work off this as a base to construct the team that will win the big one on Sunday.

The ladder – DEFYING takes his Academy throne

Apologies folks – without Higgo’s number crunching abilities this old fool doesn’t have the “mad skills” to provide an updated Academy ladder – this will be updated next week.. what I can tell you is..

  • TheTeletub will slip down the ladder after his 755 in last Sunday’s contest (203rd)
  • Sveneris continues to impress – however, his 812 (51st) is likely to see him just maintain his 2nd position
  • Stirlsy – solid without blowing the roof off the joint last week mate – 769th (157th) may see you lose a few places old son
  • Hedski continues to build – 810 (57th) will see him rise further up the standings
  • The big mover.. Defying – shared the win on Sunday with Paule on 882 points and now sits proudly atop the leaderboard

The ladder

Enough from this old bloke – what strategies are working for YOU?

 

ENTER THE ACADEMY CONTEST HERE

1st – $100, 2nd – $50, 3rd – $30, 4th – 35th – $10

READY TO GRADUATE? ENTER THE $2 BUY-IN CONTEST HERE

The $2 graduates contest is open to all states folks

 

 Fantasy Insider have a two week free trial on the go at the minute, they also have a SuperCoach ‘who should I pick’ tool which may arouse you.. jump on over and give our great supporters a try!

DFS_post_cruncher-(1)

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Comments (43)

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  1. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    geez Jock you are really extending yourself these days.
    J – Jocks
    O – Operational
    C – Calculating
    K – Knowledge
    S – System

    cant beliive the insider did not pick the Doc?
    what is he now around the 4th best player in the comp?
    surely that translate into draftstars.
    For my team – lock the doc.
    To afford him I have gone big Max over Kruez.
    Gut feel or statistical analysis or based on performance – just gotta lock the doc.

    • jockreynolds says:

      Cheers Triggo – been one hell of a year mate! $16,500 is a crapload of coin but you're right, it's a substantial set of testicles that don't go with him based on current form.

  2. hedski says:

    Your a legend Jock, hope to sneak up a few rungs with that score, maybe top 5, interestingly I entered the same team in the Graduates league and came 7th, have only had a quick peek at this weeks game so will come back to it after teams finalised Friday night. Cheers.

    • Stirlsy says:

      I'm heading out of top 5, have my spot Hedski

      • hedski says:

        Na reckon you still got me by a dozen Stirlsy, this week I'll grab ya!!

        • jockreynolds says:

          Cheers Hedo great performance mate – would love to sneak a peak at your lineup this week if you're game. What's the go this week you reckon – midpriced.. GnR.. stacking.. I have a real feeling in the guts about Carlton in this one

          • hedski says:

            Gday Jock, still fiddling with my side, have an even spread ATM (4 blues and 5 demons).
            I think Joel Smith is a risk we should run even tho he's only played 10 minutes of footy.
            Have the big Kreuz in but may want to swap to Max if I need that extra couple of grand.
            Going biggish in the guts with Cripps, Oliver, Petracca and maybe Vince, not too sure on Bernie yet tho. Mid range defence looks the goods in Jones and O.Mac, can't afford your Doch types. Bit of a smokey in Wright up fwd. Cheers mate.

  3. SC_Kev7 says:

    "the deeper and more vigorously I thrust myself into the world of Fantasy Footy" bloody hell. Anyone else a little bit warm after reading that?!

    Bit of ghost town up forward, don't mind Hannan for a touch over 9k. Hitting the 14-18 possession mark most weeks recently, add a few sausage rolls and he's good for a 70+

    Jones partnering Doch in defence gives me a reason not to roll my eyes every time he goes near it.

  4. Stirlsy says:

    Lol Jock … Yes Defying is going ok at this Fantasy stuff and Hedski has looked good in the last couple of weeks.
    A quick recap on last week, I played 2 completely different squads in the 2 games, A guns and rookies and a mid priced team with the G&R team coming out on top 813 to the mid pricer 769.
    Ran into trouble only having 8 in each team due to nutsack having his nose splattered all over his face, he wouldn't even of been in team but the late out of Stratton forced me to throw things around in the midpriced team (3 changes) and just the one change in G&R.
    I had a call up for help last week, (wont be doing this again) and guided a female no less into 17th spot in the Academy blowing my mind at how her team that was 20pts in front of me at 3QT could come home so well again with 8 players (I msg her at work Sunday to make a change Stat for the Sack if she had the dosh, didn't know if she got msg till game started, the main thing I told her to do was make sure you have Titch in team….(pitty I didn't follow my own advise.

    • jockreynolds says:

      Stirlsy. Look – the fairer sex are wondeful, please don't get me wrong. But my experience has lead to be conditioned to the fact that in some situations they can completely STUFF your fantasy season. No offence to any females. Just my experience. Miss you Narelle.

  5. Stirlsy says:

    Week 6 Dees v Blues
    I agree Jock 75% plus will head for Gawn, at this stage ill be going with them as i don't see much scoring diff between them ill take the cheap option here, looks a tough week to me with the cheap options being the key at first glance if you get them right you should be in this for a long way.
    Playing both games again but this week ill play the same in both Acads & Graduates.
    Good Luck to all that play in the Community.

    • TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

      Killing it stirls keep it up
      I can't quite get the 9 right.
      Usually get 8 but it that last player be them a premo, rookie or a mid just make the wrong call on that 9th player.
      Always sees me finish about 60 points off the winner but hey its something different

      • Stirlsy says:

        I'm trying, yes its a bit hit and miss, but im enjoying it Trigga
        Look at a few pages for scoring info fanfooty isn't bad as you can not only look back at game and player scores but also qtr by qtr scoring from past games.
        Just a bit more info but to much info isn't always best way, im more gut feel then anything else… throw everything in and look at it but gut rules for me.

  6. Stirlsy says:

    QUESTION TO ALL

    Has anyone looked at the payed games to see if our scoring stacks up?
    I think you can watch over games while there running.

    • hedski says:

      I play the freebies to hone my skills (do no good at them), having a dip at the "big 990 target" each week (do no good). There are some players out there.

      • Stirlsy says:

        Other….. ok so can u look at games that running that your not in? do you know Hedski?

        • hedski says:

          I wouldn't think so without being 100%, lets try tomorrow night

          • Stirlsy says:

            Pretty sure as iv been in lobby on way to games iv seen the word ( watch) yep ill have to have alook

            • Stirlsy says:

              So you can watch the tournament game, I couldn't find a way to watch other money games

      • SC_Kev7 says:

        Cracked the 900 mark in the 990 contest last week! So much has to go right to get close. Prize money is just short of 34k this week. Arousing

        • hedski says:

          I've had 3 goes at it Kev, all mid 700's, cracking 900 is huge well done.

        • jockreynolds says:

          Bloody hell Kev! Good work mate

          • Stirlsy says:

            Think ill have a crack at the $3 tourny game next week, should be good enough to get to 2nd day (FIGJAM) and i like the idea of using all games, although picking a team might be a headache.

  7. SuperBJ says:

    Its predicted to be a wet weekend so do we look at the players who have a high kick to handball ratio and have are known to be tackle machines?

  8. Rick Grimes says:

    Great work Jock. I had a modicum of success last week, finished 64th. I'm still trying to figure it out but one thing I've noticed is that picking the right premos is especially crucial in this game. In SC you can generally correlate price with performance, but not as much with this one. I think gut call is highly important as opposed to what they've done in past weeks.

    • jockreynolds says:

      64th is nothing to sneeze at Ricko great stuff mate!!! Good point on Premos. I know both Lek and Patch are spewing they went in with Pendles last week – cost em both a finish up near the pointy end. I'm yet to crack the code in this thing mate but as I said, there's absolutely a mixture of historical stats v opposition / grounds, general fantasy footy nous and gut feel.

  9. dpwoodford @ FI says:

    A quick word on Kreuzer with today's update. Because the layabouts in the front offices don't like to announce their teams until Thursday, we don't finalise our projections until Friday morning — normally the changes are pretty small. In this case, ol' Humphrey got a bit of a boost in the first draft because Rucks scored well vs Melbourne when they were Gawn-less, which we corrected for in today's update. We still like him as a play this week, and he's still one of the top ranked Rucks, but no longer the top ranked player on the slate!

  10. jockreynolds says:

    Only three spots left in the Graduates contest lads

    • Stirlsy says:

      I'm in there fighting for a fantasy to come true!!!!

      • hedski says:

        Looks like I should have stuck to my original lineup, swapped Kreuz out for Pederson, d'oh..got rid of Vince, d'oh.

        • Stirlsy says:

          Had vince sitting in team from Thurs flicked him last nite.

          • hedski says:

            Quick recount of my original team vs the team I entered.
            Original team as above -54 points.
            Still went shit tho.

  11. TRIGGA_HAPPY says:

    Three words
    Lock the Doc!

    Not bad 74th with cripps Mia since 2nd qtr

    What coulda been …

    • Stirlsy says:

      Lots in that boat TRIGGA not me and i finished just in front of you 71st and 8th in the Graduates a couple of off picks this week again.
      I didn't think there would be such a wide diff between Kruz and Gawn.

      • hedski says:

        Done me by 90 Stirlsy, looks like a big drop for me this week.

        • Stirlsy says:

          Yes i saw you back there with a few of others lol, never really in it myself sat 100 to 130 all day came home ok in Academy and was in top 10 all day in Graduates without ever looking like i was going to win it…

          Bring on next week.