The JR Academy – Week 4

Filed in DFS, Draftstars, Supercoach by on 22/06/2017 • views: 2828

JR-Academy-Web-Post-Image

 

The Academy – Week 4

1.     The Academy Community Ladder & Teams after Week 3 

This will be updated weekly, only showing the cumulative point score of the Top 20 place holders. All will be tracked so long term performance can be monitored. We hope to have another JR Community Competition up and running next week for those who are excluded.

Community members who prove successful in their Draftstars gamesmanship are encouraged to contribute their strategic wisdoms within this post – don’t be shy, The Academy needs your input!

WEEK-3---Ladder-and-teams

Download ENTIRE JR Academy Ladder HERE (excel file)

ENTER THIS WEEK’S JOCK REYNOLDS DRAFTSTARS ACADEMY CONTEST HERE

Congratulations to this week’s winner – “oldmanrunner”.

The theme of last week was using contrarian selections to position your team with a winning chance. Oldmanrunner’s team was contrarian in that he selected none of the three most heavily selected players; Neal-Bullen (57.7% ownership), Oliver (56.8%) and Dahlhaus (47.2%).

Interesting note – how can one predict ownership trends prior to lockout? I would appreciate any input in regard to this puzzling question in the comments below.

Another key learning can be gleaned by examining this week’s optimal team – a team that beat our weekly champ by 91 points! If we went into the game with the assumption that Melbourne would dominate the contest we may be inclined to stack our team to suit the scenario. Melbourne did dominate the contest thus making Melbourne forwards and Bulldog defenders excellent selections.

Below I have linked a fine article written by the Katie Prowd, co-founder of www.fantasyinsider.com.au and a highly successful DFS player. This article explores, among other strategies, the theme of team stacking;

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE TEAM STACKING DFS STRATEGY

Congratulations also to our current Top 20 Academy performers. I am chuffed to be currently sitting at a rank of 14!

We are continuing to learn and, as hypothesised in Week 1, our skills and cunning are beginning to become more finely tuned.

2.     Interrogation of the Player Score Projection Tool – “DOM”

Using www.fantasyinsider.com.au as a comparison, my forecasting tool was successful this week. DOM held it’s own against the DFS industry forecasting standard!

WEEK-3---Dom-v-FI-wrap-up

For further information and to sign up for a free trial of Fantasy Insider’s forecasting tools visit www.fantasyinsider.com.au

3.     Analysis of the Performance of Team Peter_Higgo

I am extremely chuffed to report that team “Peter_Higgo” performed admirably, ranking 18th and earning $10 (I treated Mother to a packet of iced vo-vos).

Each week I have performed better than the week prior; Week 1 – Top 48%, Week 2 – Top 25%, Week 3 – Top 4%.

I will continue to sharpen my strategy and DFS confidence and head into Week 4 with great enthusiasm – this is an extremely entertaining and strategic form of Fantasy Football!

4.     Week 4 DOM Player Projection for Sunday’s Free Academy Game – RIC v CAR

For numeric input detail relating to DOM (Draftstars Optimisation Machine), please visit The Week 1 JR Academy post.

PlayerPOSLong Run Av. (SD)2017 Av. (SD)Last 3 Av. (SD)Av. V Opp.ForecastCeilingPrice$/Pt.
B GibbsMid102.62 (26)117.75 (29.61)149 (43.14)94109.84175.817750161.59
S DochertyDef94.17 (23.94)121.25 (22.38)140.67 (9.71)106.33119.17150.9216850141.39
D MartinMid104.77 (23.75)115.33 (29.92)132.33 (32.01)92.3114.21162.7616750146.65
M KreuzerRuc83.28 (24.69)108.27 (24.86)131 (18.52)91.62105.23143.815750149.67
T CotchinMid97.81 (22.25)104.75 (19.64)120.67 (24.42)89.14105.51143.0815500146.9
M MurphyMid95.95 (29.38)113.33 (17.31)99.33 (8.08)96102.69133.7214650142.66
K SimpsonDef/Mid94.3 (23.43)100.5 (29.65)100 (33.72)98.7199.25148.4414400145.08
B EllisFwd93.44 (22.35)78.83 (22.79)109.67 (14.57)8993.53127.3714250152.35
B HouliRuc/Fwd85.88 (23.21)88.25 (24.82)122 (7.55)73.8395.51127.0114150148.15
P CrippsMid91.66 (24.22)101 (19.14)92.33 (16.77)72.8391.39125.4713900152.09
S GriggMid88.94 (18.85)94.58 (16.42)89 (8.54)75.488.44113.2713250149.81
E CurnowMid89.41 (23.66)91 (21.25)86 (27.62)8287.88128.9813150149.63
D PrestiaMid93.89 (22.69)79.4 (25.04)96 (37.03)10392.49140.5312900139.47
J RiewoldtFwd78.74 (19.44)84.42 (14.1)93 (10.54)81.5785.78110.7612300143.39
J CaddyMid/Fwd81.05 (25.46)74.91 (16.93)84.33 (11.24)7880.08110.4612050150.47
T NankervisRuc/Fwd70.3 (26.01)87.82 (17.25)76.33 (3.51)8380.4106.911650144.9
K LambertFwd67.26 (24.74)76.27 (23.4)84.33 (26.5)6875.73118.0211500151.85
M WrightFwd75.24 (21.54)75.17 (17.47)81.67 (18.56)80.578.69111.3211450145.5
C MarchbankDef63.79 (23.62)78.17 (8.54)79.67 (12.7)7876.2101.6210550138.45
D ThomasMid72.98 (23.52)72.22 (17.06)84 (0)57.573.4696.4510550143.61
A RanceDef71.24 (19.19)64.67 (16.73)74.33 (19.86)85.473.52105.1310300140.09
D AstburyDef59.16 (17.85)62.67 (18.12)75.33 (18.15)7067.7398.3910150149.85
K McintoshDef65.69 (21.28)66.09 (15.3)75.67 (17.04)78.7571.91102.310100140.45
R ConcaDef/Mid72.84 (20.71)68.5 (21.49)7571.1795.089800137.69
B BoekhorstMid50.7 (20.06)77 (0)77 (0)52.567.34101.449700144.04
D CuninghamMid64 (15.42)70.75 (18.14)77.33 (15.28)57.7285.399650167.18
S LloydFwd61.55 (19.86)63.6 (14.21)68.67 (13.65)73.567.1994.229450140.64
S EdwardsMid/Fwd66.92 (21.09)63.57 (11.21)61 (8.54)61.8363.6286.769200144.6
J LambFwd54.96 (22.06)68 (16.97)68 (16.97)54.563.1994.929100144.01
L CasboultFwd58.69 (18.89)63.83 (12.35)65.33 (5.86)59.462.8683.898850140.78
J SilvagniFwd58.58 (20.18)62.36 (23.49)60.33 (17.04)6461.8296.228700140.73
L JonesFwd49.03 (20.78)64.5 (10.61)64.5 (10.61)4962.4582.68500136.1
J ShortDef58.85 (16.08)56.82 (16.36)53 (7.21)7660.4182.888400139.04
C MenadueMid48.38 (21.76)53.5 (10.31)58.67 (8.02)72.562.3281.048350133.98
C CurnowFwd51.61 (21.88)55.17 (25.8)66.33 (21.59)5758.6797.928350142.32
D RioliFwd51 (14.39)53.75 (12.14)53 (10.82)42.551.2272.388350163.02
J CastagnaDef/Fwd57.81 (25.8)58.18 (23.97)46.5 (0.71)9462.2690.878150130.9
J WeiteringDef/Fwd55.84 (19.67)53.25 (14.69)50.33 (13.32)5954.5481.568150149.43
D GrimesDef44.92 (17.99)47.83 (17.57)62.33 (23.12)42.2850.9984.248150159.83
L PlowmanDef51.16 (17.75)61.08 (15.1)52 (2)3752.0571.87900151.77
D ButlerFwd54 (15.3)54 (15.3)41.5 (30.41)7254.3588.927500137.99
T WilliamsonDef53 (16.07)53 (16.07)38.33 (13.8)38.564.526950180.51
S BoltonMid/Fwd45 (8.52)45 (8.52)47.67 (8.14)45.7851.576650145.25
Z FisherMid46.13 (9.76)46.13 (9.76)41.67 (2.89)42.4248.766400150.87
S RoweDef45.08 (18.12)36.67 (21.22)37.241.3763.666400154.7
H MacreadieDef37.83 (7.83)37.83 (7.83)32 (0)3536.0149.336400177.72

5.     Comparison of RIC v CAR  predictive scores as delivered by DOM against an established forecasting model
Using forecasts as supplied by www.fantasyinsider.com.au, DOM performance data will be routinely checked against Fantasy Insider’s forecasting model and adjusted post-round as required.

PlayerDOM's ForecastF.I's ForecastDifference
Sum Totals3034.083260.396.58
A Rance73.5271.551.96
B Boekhorst67.3450.5116.83
B Ellis93.5386.846.69
B Gibbs109.84102.677.16
B Houli95.5192.043.47
C Curnow58.6750.777.89
C Marchbank76.273.782.41
C Menadue62.3260.481.84
D Astbury67.7363.544.18
D Butler54.3553.650.7
D Cuningham57.7262.37-4.65
D Grimes50.9949.081.9
D Martin114.21121.9-7.69
D Prestia92.4983.099.39
D Rioli51.2259.53-8.31
D Thomas73.4676.15-2.69
E Curnow87.8889.97-2.09
H Macreadie36.0138.06-2.05
J Caddy80.0881.53-1.45
J Castagna62.2659.382.87
J Lamb63.1951.9811.21
J Riewoldt85.7888.2-2.42
J Short60.4161.88-1.47
J Silvagni61.8252.828.99
J Weitering54.5451.792.74
K Lambert75.7376.02-0.29
K Mcintosh71.9169.991.91
K Simpson99.2589.979.27
L Casboult62.8651.2411.61
L Jones62.4546.0816.37
L Plowman52.0551.520.52
M Kreuzer105.2390.9114.31
M Murphy102.6999.822.87
M Wright78.6975.053.63
P Cripps91.3995.31-3.92
R Conca71.1767.683.48
S Bolton45.7843.572.2
S Docherty119.17106.0713.09
S Edwards63.6269.4-5.78
S Grigg88.4498.59-10.15
S Lloyd67.1969.4-2.21
S Rowe41.3741.040.32
T Cotchin105.51105.350.15
T Nankervis80.485.21-4.81
T Williamson38.550.6-12.1
Z Fisher42.4243.79-1.37

6.     Apply DOM forecasts and key selection strategies to finalise a weekly contest lineup for Sunday’s FREE Academy Game – RIC v CAR.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Given that each week this post will be uploaded PRIOR to final team selections, potential updates will be re-posted following the release of squads. 

And so to this week’s all important line-ups.

I am forecasting a solid Richmond performance as is reflected in my selections. I am also adding in a key point of difference in my Ruck selection. Given Kreuzer’s elevated price with what would seem perhaps a minimal point gain as compared to Nankervis, I am forecasting that my Ruck selection will add the uniqueness required to possibly elevate my rankings above the pack.

This is a classic Boom-Bust squad – precisely the type of team I now consider imperative in these DFS contests.

DOM-v-FI-lineups-WEEK4

 

I will leave the JR Academy Community to discuss the pros and cons of the above lineups and in particular the newly unpacked technique of team stacking.

Consider it, challenge it, and by all means BEAT TEAM PETER_HIGGO IN THIS SUNDAY’S ACADEMY CONTEST! 

ENTER THIS WEEK’S CONTEST HERE

I wish you well for Week 4 and look forward to continuing to share in my explorations over the coming weeks.

Kind regards,

Peter J Higginbotham

 

 Fantasy Insider have a two week free trial on the go at the minute, they also have a SuperCoach ‘who should I pick’ tool which may arouse you.. jump on over and give our great supporters a try!

DFS_post_cruncher-(1)

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Comments (16)

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  1. big Sexy says:

    Your old Mum, and Cath must be proud, Peter. Excellent analysis.

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      If I am successful this week I may pluck up the courage to invite Cathy over for an Iced Vovo.

  2. Brandon says:

    Higgo and myself tied in 14th overall! Good stuff mate!

  3. SC_Kev7 says:

    Wouldn't be surprised if Nank's ownership is higher than Kreuzer. Not enough middle range options in the mids to justify his 15k price tag.

    My low SD lineup last week worked a treat. Was sitting 3rd at 3/4 time only to be derailed by injuries to Jones and Watts. Finished 25th for my second $10 win after a 4th placed finish in week one.

    I don't see that strategy working again this week. Some serious high scoring players taking the field. Only 1 10k option available in the mids (Daisy). A guns n rookies strategy may suit better this week

  4. Stirlsy says:

    Higgo Jumps into the top 20 Go you good thing….
    THx for the hit up on the podcast fellas,
    Jock I think you misunderstood me last week the prices i gave were what my team last week was based on, I have no problem taking a guy at 16k as I did with Pendles in week 1
    Golly still 5th overall after the team hit troubled waters last week with Jong going down and Melksham getting a tagging role.
    This week I had a quick look and put a team in after listening to the Podcast at first glance it looks a hard week with the premo guys high price looking daunting, Kruz looks like he will control the ruck but at 15750 a big ask or Nank 11650 and save big questions.
    Will the Tigs try and stop the Blueboys from setting up down back with Doc and Simmo
    Last week I gave T.Mac as a good POD 10.44% owned and he pumped out 108 … This week looks abit harder to find but im going to have a go at a Blue who has been a little quite of late, sorry no names but he can play FWD and Back so that's a fair hint..
    Goodluck to all in Community on Sunday and remember think Fantasy scores in DRAFTSTARS.

    • SC_Kev7 says:

      The 4,100 saved by going Nank over Kruze is the difference between a Graham/Lambert combo and a Grigg/Cripps combo (for example). Nank far better for SC than fantasy but he's no slouch either. Would rather invest in midfield bulls

      • Patch says:

        I'd almost consider Kruez a midfield bull over the past 4 weeks, so I think I'm going with him. Will be missing Gibbs and Doch simply because I think the Tigers will put a lot of work into them, giving Simmo and Smurph and chance to get off the chain

        • Stirlsy says:

          I think the Blues will try and keep there backs set up with the plus 1 no matter what….. but it might not be the Doc doing it this week, leaning towards the big Kruez at this stage myself, but we will wait to see what the tigs do at selection tonite.

  5. Stirlsy says:

    Re ownership %
    I don't think you can see ownership before game starts, well i haven't come across it and that's the way it should be.

    • discojim says:

      Yep – If you could see this then the game changes. I recall guys in the states who worked for one of the big companies using ownership percentages in their game to play on another platform. It worked but they got busted.

  6. Top4Tiger says:

    Adding to the ruck selection discussion for Sunday;

    I played a $2 comp. last night and there was a similar ruck decision to be made.
    There were only two options. Jacobs – $14,450 and McEvoy – $12,400.
    – Ownership percentages; Jacobs 38% and McEvoy 62%
    – Final scores; Jacobs 90 and McEvoy 75
    – $ per point; Jacobs $160.5 and McEvoy $165.3

    So Jacobs was the better selection, but only just!

    I'm with Higgo in that I think Nankervis will be a popular selection based on price and I think Kruezer will offer better value, just as Jacobs did last night.

    • P_J_Higgo says:

      A fine contribution. Thank you Top4Tiger.

      As I type vague selection rumours circle in relation to Nankervis not being named. If Ivan Maric comes in, the Ruck selection quandary will indeed be great!

  7. Bucks says:

    Sitting 21st but not a dime to show for it !

    This will be a very interesting week with so many pricey guns. I feel lots of variety in team selections.

  8. Markbell says:

    Great work here i like it,
    Keep it up the work