Zac Williams: A Risk v Reward Analysis

Filed in Community Series, Supercoach, Supercoach 2017 by on January 20, 2017 • views: 4044

Zac Williams Supercoach Risk v RewardG’day community.

Look, lets be honest here, every fantasy coach worth his or her salt can identify a rolled-gold SuperCoach premium. Head on over Jock’s excellent analysis on blokes we’re keen on early in the season and you’ll see that the Dangerfield’s, Pendlebury’s, and Docherty’s of the world are all in a lot of teams. All 3 had excellent seasons and as such, are some of the more expensive options heading into 2017.

As much as we try to cram as many of these guys as we can into our starting 22 within the 10mil salary cap, hunting for value is just as important. Whether it’s identifying a breakout player, giving your team a point of difference (POD) or a lack of rookies, players in the 300-500k range can be just as important for success.

Players in that price range are there for a reason. They are notorious for following up a 100 with a 60 and you end up being stuck with them, convincing yourself that their next big score is just around the corner. An example for you, it took me until round 14, yes FOURTEEN, to trade out Jeremy McGovern last year. He started 2016 at 429k, my “stepping stone” defender, had lost 15k from his starting price by the time I got rid of him and I had 6 scores each above and below 80 to show for it. Research is VITAL.

First cab off the rank for Risk v Reward is Zac Williams. He was in 11% of preseason teams. Should you pick him?

Zac Williams key numbers

2017 Price:   $480,100
2017 Position:   DEF
Bye Round:  13
 Games 100+ in 2016:        4
90-99:    5
80-89:    5
Under 80:    6

 PODCAST: JOCK, HIGGO & CROUCHING PICKING APART EVERY AFL LIST FOR SUPERCOACH 2017 GOLD HERE

Zac Williams Stat Attack (includes finals)

Zac Williams SuperCoach Stats

An increase in clangers was the only blight for Zac Williams in 2016 when compared to his 2015 campaign. However, importantly, his disposal efficiency didn’t suffer because of it. There’s nothing hugely surprising about these numbers, you don’t increase your SC average by 18 points without smashing out some career high stats. An increase by almost 2 in I50’s is a positive sign that he is gaining confidence to push higher up the field.

Will his role change?

Nah. Fellow backman Nathan Wilson struggled with groin issues throughout the year and had relatively major surgery on both his hips. He hasn’t been ruled out for round one as far as I know, but is expected to make a delayed start. With the Giants flush for talent in seemingly every position, he may be forced to find match fitness via the NEAFL.

Is there room for Zac Williams alongside Heath Shaw in your team?

Heath Shaw struggled post bye in 2016. He started to gather attention in the form of a forward tag, limiting his ability for a free pass out of the backline. However, this didn’t translate into greater output from Zac Williams. Zac had his own struggles post bye, failing to ton up at all. His last month of the season was particularly poor with scores of 84, 68, 79, and 55 along with finals contributions of 65 and 56 taking the gloss off what was a great year.

You can feel safe selecting both to start the year. The Dogs showed that rebounding defenders can exist in the same team and be a success (before they all fell over)

Zac Williams pre/post bye analysis with finals

Zac Williams after the bye

Risk v Reward-0-Meter

Where does Zachy boy fall on the patented JR Risk or Reward – O – Meter that definitely isn’t a dreamtime™ stock photo I found on Google?

Zac Williams Risk and Reward

I’m not saying he is a lock or a must have, but there’s not a lot risk associated with Zac Williams in 2017. He is someone you can be comfortable in selecting.

Till next time – Kev

Get amongst the comments or hit me up on Twitter (@SC_Kev7) if there’s a player you would like to see get the risk v reward treatment. If the concept is popular enough I’d love to write a few more.

Tags: , , ,

Comments (40)

Trackback URL | Comments RSS Feed

  1. Nick Wealands says:

    Great stuff Kev, can see this bloke possibly being a top 10 defender in 2017 and a great selection, I did an article on Pittard a week back and I'd take Williams in a heartbeat over him after reading this report
    Awesome stuff!!!!

  2. Kevan says:

    Terrific write up Kev. I firmly believe Zac will be in the top ten defenders come end of the season. He reads the game very well. Heater has been teaching him everything he knows and the man listens.

  3. I N Pieman says:

    I'd like to hear from Patch on this one! I really like the look of this bloke but I'm far from decided one way or another. It's not like we are struggling for good defence options. Love it Kev. Keep them coming

    • Kev says:

      Patch's work is now gospel for my side! ZW far from a lock, INP, but a nice option if you're looking to save a bit of coin. Don't see him moving backwards

      • I N Pieman says:

        I don't see him going backwards either Kev. The Giants have so much talent it's absurd. The only thing that can stop them standing on the dais is injuries. ZW in the mix for sure

  4. Nibbles says:

    Reckon this guy could do a KK. Similar numbers before burning a lot of people last year.
    On a side note, when you traded McGovern he went on to average 95 for the rest of the year, and was only 0.3 worse than Williams for the year. I think this bloke is far from a lock and the risk is more than very low!

    • Mac says:

      KK had something wrong with him for the whole year. I can't tell you what exactly but that is why he missed round 1 and a game later on in the season.

      • Kev says:

        I would have never kept Gov anyway, Nibbles. He didn't have a history of being a high scorer but at 429k I thought he was good enough to push out an extra 5-10ppg. He hadn't by the time I got rid of him and became a waste of a trade.

        ZW far from a lock but a "safe" <500k choice

  5. Seeker says:

    Fantastic stuff Kev. To sum up I suppose:
    Risk: he plateaus or even goes backwards on his 2016 average (he's certainly not injury prone).
    Reward: possible top 8 defender for $480k if he can increase in average by about 10%
    He's my biggest temptation under $500k (not including Roughie, Beams or Sandilands) He's not quite in just yet because of Patch's mid-pricer article and Zac's drop off in scores post bye last year

    • Kev says:

      Patch's article was a game changer! That second half of the year was definitely a concern. Usually I'm pretty big on guys who finish the year strong

  6. OldOcker says:

    I will applaud anyone that has an opinion, that is part of the greatness of this website.
    Unfortunately he cannot make my team being valued at $480,100 and an average of 88.3.
    His finishing price last year was $393,000 and is already priced for his expected improvement. This is of course just my opinion.
    Well done for making the effort KEV I know Throttle will hate you for writing about his boy.

    • I N Pieman says:

      Throts had Zac WIlliams in his team all of last preseason. I speak to him every day. He was MASSIVE on him. When he didn't play round 1 he swapped him for Wilson. He was desperately unlucky. I'm sure he will voice his opinion on this when he wakes up!

    • Kev says:

      Cheers, Ock. He would have set you back 500k in round 17, was averaging 93.6. Lost a fair chunk of cash last month a bit. He's shown he can lift his average above 90 so I see it as more getting back to the level he was at rather than an expected improvement. Remember he's a young bloke, coming into his 5th season now.

      There are points there if he steps up with the absence of Wilson and the spotlight on Heater

      • OldOcker says:

        You make a fair point Kev but I think total points scored over a season starts to be a more statistical point for me this year.
        He is very capable of becoming a very relevant defender and as you suggest he is young and was given a fair go last year.
        His first 3 years were more like an apprenticeship, not having played more than 12 games per year previously, he only missed the 2 games at the start last year.
        If he can lift his consistency and remain injury free then he is a fair option in defense but I could not bring myself to put faith in him with one full year of AFL. (I want to see the consistency first at his price)
        He will be mid 22's at the start of this season and has developed well but I think he might need another year.
        However that is only one Old Farts opinion.

  7. The Goods says:

    This is irrelevant to the article but would somebody be able to tell me when SuperCoach opens for people without gold?

    • Kev says:

      Can't be too far away, surely! Before the end of the month I reckon. No concrete info, just a hunch

    • OldOcker says:

      I am trying to find out officially for everybody as this question has been asked many times.
      BEST SOLUTION ATM is go to the header at the top of this page and download "The Higginator" if you have not already done so.

      Cheers.

    • Dukes says:

      Last yr it opened on the 28th of jan. So sometime around then i suspect

  8. TRIGGER HAPPY says:

    Kev talk about a smoldering mess.

    A Red hot article but Patch's article comes out last night (fantastic piece) and pours cold water on the fire by the bucket loads.

    Funny was thinking about Williams but not anymore.

    Loved the meter but no longer taking the risk.

    • OldOcker says:

      As great as Patch's article is, he does also state that past winners like John and C Money had 2 mid-priced players in their team.
      I will guarantee that Patch will end up with 2 in his team at least mainly due to the fact that Guns & Rookies should ALWAYS be the main structure of everyone's team. The fact is that $10 mil is still the maximum spend when rookie prices have gone through the roof over the last few years.
      We need to field 22 players every week and preferably have bench cover as well.

      CHALLENGE for all is to make a complete team of rookies and then start replacing them with GUNS and see what you have left and how many rookies will play round one?
      This is an interesting exercise I am going through at the moment.
      GUNS are easy to find but the rookies to fill the rest of the team control us in some way and it may be necessary to field 2 of these demons even though I do not think Zac is one of the right ones for me.

      • TRIGGER HAPPY says:

        Yep cash only will stretch so far.
        Did a revamp today. Took out beams, Bob Murphy and swallow.
        Now team is 12 keepers, 2 discounted stars and 1 middy (sir issac just see him keep pushing his scores up)
        15 rooks.
        Just looks better.
        Of course will know more when rooks play pre season and who is mamed rd 1 but happy now for the time

  9. throttlefinger says:

    Ahhhhhh, my man ZacAttack. As Pieman said he was my D4 all last preseason. Went Wilson as a consolation and never recovered. Here's another pro for ZW…Champion Data love him. You know the sorts, get 1-2 points just being near the ball. Points seem to creep up with no explanation. He's one of the charmed few. That said he didn't end up in the top 20 def and I doubt he'll crack top 10 this season. And he's at a keeper price. So unless he comes out preseason looking like he's gained another gear or upped his payments to CD, he's a pass for me. Fantastic article Kev.

    • OldOcker says:

      I knew you would appear buddy,
      Champion data love Ablett too are you considering him this year.
      Never mind this is a Zac thread and I do not wish any disrespect to KEV by mentioning such stupidity.
      Zac is no doubt going to be a very good footballer eventually but I feel he needs to get that consistency going first, I truly hope he does it for your lads this year but too risky for mine at that price there are better risks.

      PS: He never paid CD, he just missed a few Ablett tackles.

      • throttlefinger says:

        Haha. Probably true on that. Gazza is undisputed lovechild of CD.

        And I was incorrect. Zac landed 19th for SC average. Still don't think he cracks top 10. Next season more likely.

        • OldOcker says:

          I will give you for the 1 point difference that is not the issue, but the fact is i think he does need another year to prove consistency before being selected especially at that price and it sounds like you agree.

          I would like to give KEV some suggestions on RISK V REWARD but there are too many.
          We must at least start at a lower price to have a chance of gaining cash for upgrades.

          Kev how about."Jayden Hunt" now classed as defender for Melbourne who is having a great pre season. Tom McDonald says he will be a big improver this year and this kid is all class. Represented Melb in the GF Sprint too so he is fast. He has put on where it counts and will be a rebounding defender. Started his career as a fwd and kicked 3 goals in 2016, Now classed as defender only. Roosy loves this kid and has ability plus but a very awkward price after first season since recruited in 2014. He missed the first 3 games and ave 59.6 from 19 games $324,400 (Awkward price but watch he is class) Roosy has gone but don't worry he should play every game.

  10. Derek says:

    Goldy R2 and Rookie F4 (gun and rookie)

    Or

    Sandi and Ryder (2x Midpricers)

    • OldOcker says:

      Too early Derek, Lets wait for the magnificent Jock Magazine to read about that this year.
      I went 2 set and forget rucks for the last 3 years (and it worked) and will probably do the same this year with the amount of Rookies that should be available to make cash in the FWD line.

  11. wombatsfc says:

    Zac and Heater have a similar symbiotic relationship to that of Docherty and Simpson. Don't be suprised if Zac's 2017 is similar to Docherty's 2016 in that he surpasses a legend due to the support of that legend. If they follow the blue 2 trend both Heater and Zac will increase their ave by 10+ in 2017.
    Note 2016 was the first time in his career that K Simpson ave over 100 in SC, this is relevant as it shows that two defenders in the same team can increase their aves significantly without significant improvement in team performance.

    • Derek says:

      What do you think about GWS being a good team and Carlton not a good team. ie for time in Carltons defence than GWS defence!

      • wombatsfc says:

        Didn't make any difference last year Derek and I don't see any reason why this season would be different

        • Derek says:

          I would prefer to have defenders that play for a weak team. They should see more of the footy.

          GWS had a much better second part of last year and look at Shaw and Williams scores! Poor.

          • AMAC says:

            Agree 100% with Wombatsfc. Exact reason I picked Doc and JJ last year and same reasn i will pick Zach this year. Derek, the old adage, defenders in a weak team should see more of the pill is simply not true. Look how many 100+ supercoach scorers Essendon and Brisbane had in their backlines. ie none. Have a look at this
            2016 – Sam Docherty
            Age Rnd 1 – 22 years 4 months
            Games Rnd 1 – 48
            Supercoach ave score previous year – 88
            Is considered a gun
            Plays with a gun in Simpson

            2017 – Zack Williams
            Age Rnd 1 – 22 years 5 months
            Games Rnd 1 – 53
            Supercoach ave previous year – 88
            Widely considered to be a gun and
            Plays with a gun named Shaw

            Now this guarantees nothing of course but I would have to see something shocking for him to not line up in my side come round 1.

            • Derek says:

              Thats my point. Carlton poor team therefore have two defenders who score really well.

              GWS formally a poor team. Improved during season hence Shaw and Williams scores dropped.

              • Derek says:

                Zac Dawson looking better and better!

              • AMAC says:

                Ok Derek I see your point. Hey! cherry pick all you like….. and back it up with opinion.

                Derek said "I would prefer to have defenders that play for a weak team. They should see more of the footy."

                Only 1 of the bottom four teams managed to have a top 20 defender in 2016. That guy was a triple premiership player from Geelong. So yeah, go with your strategy Derek. Good luck.

  12. The Bont says:

    In the end Kev we could all say that there is a risk and we could all say he could breakout . The fact is we can only use the stats to make an educated guess . I agree we have to take one or two gambles on these mid priced players , however I'd rather save the money through the guts with a (if fit ) Beamer or forward with Bennell (again if fit ) . That's my play but that's not to say Williams won't go big , you've presented him very well and is one that will sit in my calculations until round one , I have heater currently but all can change in an instant . Cheers for the article mate

  13. Steeeve says:

    Based on that article about only selecting players in the 3-400K range if they have previously averaged a ton (or close), you'd be better off taking Hartlett.
    Not saying you should, but history shows its a safer punt. Consider that before starting Williams.

  14. Stirlsy says:

    Picked him out last season as one to look closely at this year, wasn't real hard as a lot have him in early.
    What i found last year was he starts really well in games but was dropping off late quite badly in last qtrs like sitting in mid 80s at 3qtr time but failing to get over the ton and his last month was shocking as you pointed out Kev.
    I'v put it down to age and with another preseason under him he could easily be better at running games out and going over 100 more often.
    Firmly in the mix to start in my team.