Kade Simpson Supercoach 2017

Filed in Community Series, Supercoach, Supercoach 2017 by on January 7, 2017 • views: 3615

Kade Simpson Supercoach 2017Age is just a number baby

by LekDog

The two biggest question marks over Kade Simpson this year are his age (not for the first time) and his price; at 33 when the season begins can we justify spending $578,700 on the defender?

Let me try and sell him to you.

SECURED YOUR 2017 JOCK REYNOLDS MAGAZINE YET? TIME IS SHORT – GET ON!

2017 Price:   $578,700
2017 Position:   DEF
Games last season:   22
Average last season:   106.3
100+ games last season:   15 (7 scores of 122+)
Sub 80 games last season:   0
Price range last season:   $483K – $557K
Missed games last season: 
  • 0
Significant history: 
  • Lowest season average since 2006 was 85.1
  • Averaged at least 92.7 in 9 of his last 10 seasons
  • Standard deviation of 14.8 in 2016
  • Ranked 2nd for Supercoach defenders in 2016
  • Has only missed 5 games since 2006

Jock Reynolds Supercoach Magazine 2017

SELECTION PURPOSE

If you’re picking Simpson it’s because you are willing to pay a premium for 22 games of quality football and Supercoach scoring. Simpson is the real Mr. Standard Deviation of 14.8, lower than Corey Enright or Patch’s man Zach Merrett (sorry Patch).

Simpson is a unicorn in the fantasy world because he doesn’t score from contested possessions (in fact he relies almost entirely on uncontested possessions) something that we would normally want to avoid in a Supercoach selection.

However his uncontested game is good enough to warrant a selection despite his age and price. Simpson averaged 20.4 uncontested possessions per game in 2016 with en effective disposal rate of 22.4 and a disposal efficiency of 82.4%. What do all of these fancy terms mean? Simpson gets a lot of the ball on his own, has a lot of time to use it and 82 times out of 100 will hit a teammate with his disposal.

The beauty of Simpson’s Supercoach prowess lies in the fact that he doesn’t rely on contested possessions. If he was a midfielder who didn’t grab the contested ball we wouldn’t look at him twice but so good is Simpson’s ability to read the play we can give him two, three…hell even four looks this preseason.

Simpson has built a game on being in the right place at the right time. He isn’t pacey and he doesn’t fight one-on-one for the ball (just 5.7 contested possessions per game in 2016) but he can read the play better than most and more often than not will find himself alone with the football with plenty of time to hit up a teammate by foot.

The beauty of Kade Simpson is that whilst he can be damaging, he isn’t dangerous enough to be targeted by the opposition forward line. In my opinion if there is to be a tag deployed on a Carlton defender (not likely in 2017 as Carlton still aren’t a contender) it would be done so to negate the effectiveness of Sam Docherty, leaving Simpson free to roam the backline once again. Simpson plays a very statistically friendly game-style which translates into Supercoach and Coach Kings points very nicely.

PODCAST: YOU. MUST. CATCH UP ON THE WEEKLY TEAM-BY-TEAM SUPERCOACH ANALYSIS SERIES. JOCK, HIGGO & CROUCHING ON FIRE

RISK FACTOR

I don’t think we need to go into his age too much, in my opinion nothing is different from last season. Look at Simpson, Matthew Boyd, Corey Enright, James Kelly and Shaun Burgoyne, all old and all top ten defenders in 2016.

Price is the other major factor to consider and admitadely $580K is an absolute premium in a world of affordable defenders but that extra $80K (compared to a Bernie Vince) locks in 22 games of 100+ scores.

With the trade of Zach Tuohy to the Geelong Football Club comes the only other real question mark over Kade Simpson. With one less ball carrier out of defence does the pressure to gather more contested ball fall to Kade Simpson? Does this mean that Kade Simpson will have to man up on a more talented forward than he did in 2016? Or does it simply mean that Simpson will have more opportunities to show of his left foot?

To answer these questions I can only speculate. I do not think Zach Tuohy’s absence will negatively affect Kade Simpson’s Supercoach performance in 2017. A Dylan Buckley/Billie Smedts/Dale Thomas type player in will fill Tuohy’s role for the most part, although I can see aspects of that role being filled by Simpson himself, specifically inside-50’s.

Simpson averaged 2.4 inside-50’s per game in 2016 to Zach Tuohy’s 2.9 per game, as our best player by foot I expect Simpson to push forward in Tuohy’s absence and push his own inside-50’s average to around 3 per game. This modest jump might just be the key ingredient to Simpson keeping his average above 100 for the 2017 season.

EXTRA NOTES

It is also important to note that since the arrival of Brendan Bolton to Princes Park, the three key ball handlers out of Carlton’s defence in Simpson, Docherty and Tuohy all increased their Supercoach output. This, in my humble opinion, is due to a new system in which the focus is on defence and effective usage of the ball. Tuohy increased his Supercoach average from 79.3 to 81.5 in Bolton’s first year, Docherty jumped from 87.7 to an impressive (and defensive leading) 108.7 points per game and Simpson was able to move his average from 92.7 to a career high 106.4 points per game. This is not a fluke, in my opinion it is the result of a new mindset, a mindset that speaks well to Simpson’s viability in 2017.

THE GOOD

  • Consistent
  • Averaged 106.3 last year
  • Averaged at least 92.7 in 9 of the last 10 years
  • Elite by foot
  • Major part of Carlton’s structure

THE BAD

  • Age
  • Price
  • Global warming may reduce the amount of times he wears long sleeves in 2017

THE VERDICT

Simpson will drop in price…but I don’t think that’s a reason not to select him.

Look at his history, he’s a champion and there is no reason why he won’t be the second ranked Supercoach defender again in 2017.

His ball usage, role, consistency and durability all point to another season of scoring 2,200+ Supercoach points.

You have to outlay a lot of cash at the start of the year but I think Simpson will be well and truly worth it. Others will be looking at my man Sam Docherty but I think it’s viable to have both given the glut of cheap defenders we have available to us.

YES – Big price for big scores

What’s your call on the Kade Simpson?

Lekdog

We all know him. We all love him. Tweet with him: @LekBlog

BROWSE OUR DAILY PLAYER REVIEWS HERE

Jock Reynolds Coach KingsThis article has been penned as part of the Jock Reynolds Community Series, where anyone from within our proud community can have their say in front of their peers. These men and women have displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

Kade Simpson Community Poll:

Where are you at with Kade Simpson in 2017?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

 

Tags: , , ,

Comments (48)

Trackback URL | Comments RSS Feed

  1. The Bont says:

    Wasnt really in my equation until today Lek . I agee with the fact tuohys exit wont have
    A negative impact on kade , the question is can he back it up? Or does he slip back into the
    90s?

    • LEKD0G says:

      I think with Bolton's focus on defence Simmo should average 100+ again, maybe a little less than last season but it's hard to say.
      I hadn't considered him until this write up but he didn't drop below 80 once in 2016, that's crazy

      • The Bont says:

        Yeah jumped onto footywire before and saw the same thing , if he averages 100 + and plays 22 you've got a win I reckon . The other one for me in this basket is joey , but would have a much bigger standard deviation . But in a saints outfit that's always improving (could) be relevant

  2. Krups says:

    Locked in along with Doc

  3. I N Pieman says:

    Awesome write up Lek. Another bloke who his age doesn't bother me. Consistent as buggery. Can't see him falling off a cliff. Just as matter of a decision between a starter or upgrade target. I also wonder if Docherty will get more attention. Could find some more defence forwards standing next to him. I'm much more likely to start simmo over doch

    • LEKD0G says:

      Yeah he will drop in price but it's really a question of whether you want those early scores locked away or not.
      Agree re Doc, think he could see a by more attention this year

  4. Timmy Tomahawk says:

    Good write up Lek, personallyI think JJ, Laird, Rance are much better prices to start with though Brother. You can strike on Shaw/Simpson/Docherty when the time is right during the season… It all adds up that $10 Million Cap. Not a Moneyball play to start with him, no matter how rigid the Bro-mance… Special mention to Mrs Simpsons son Kade's slip on flippers in that image – they are a late 90's special with the bottle opener on the sole… Haha!

    • LEKD0G says:

      Kade SImpson has the added bonus of being from my area so I love him even more. Agree that the moneyball move is to not start with him but we do need maximum premos at every position and at this early stage all of my teams have had cash left over due to cheap midfielders and forwards. It's just a matter of whether you want the early tons or can make do until he drops midseason.
      Really like JJ and Laird, Rance too inconsistent for me.

  5. Adam says:

    Just about my number 1 lock. Simpson epitomises durability and consistency as well as continually reaching the top echelon of SuperCoach defenders and price and age shouldn't be a hinderence as him form will not waver significantly. After locking away Simpson the only problem is finding other defensive premiums to join him, Murphy and Hartlett with Shaw, Montagna, Laird all vying for spots from D4 to even D6.

    • LEKD0G says:

      Yeah throw Bernie Vince in just for the sake of discussion and we've got some options. I consider Simpson a safe pick and in defence that's what I like.

  6. Rosco says:

    $578K on a 33 year old defender? I love Simmo and have had him in SC for years on end but that is a lot of coin for a guy that is nearing the end. I can see some "general soreness" weeks off while Bolton gets some game time into the kids. Watch and see for me.

    • LEKD0G says:

      Don't mind the hesitance, I do not think Bolton will rest him though especially with Tuohy gone.

  7. Kev says:

    Umming and ahhing on Simmo so far. That low standard deviation won't see his price plummet. Loved the extra notes, the positive influence Bolton has had on those 3 blokes has been significant.

    Great review, Lek

    • I N Pieman says:

      Same Kev. One thing is for certain but I'm much more likely to cough up over 500 for defenders over the forward options

      • LEKD0G says:

        Agree Pieman, this year the forward line will shape the season and there's noone to risk big cash on up that end. Simpson is overpriced but we know what we're getting.

        • I N Pieman says:

          The forward line & rucks will be the make or break Lek. Defence & mid options are plentiful

          • LEKD0G says:

            Rucks is another massive one, go big or try and save a dollar or two? The risktaker in me says go cheap but I bet i don't

    • LEKD0G says:

      Thanks for reading the article mate, i was umming and ahing but I'm feeling good about him

    • Moustachio says:

      Well, if he has a repeat of 2015 his price will drop 100k (and stay there since his standard deviation is so low).

      He is in consideration for mine, but not a lock as he *will* be had for cheaper (don't forget starting prices are inflated about 6%, he is priced to average >110).

  8. derek says:

    last year i stayed away from both Docherty and Simpson. i still have sleepless nights.

    i won't get both, leaning towards Docherty at the moment

    • LEKD0G says:

      Yeah I went Simpson over Doch at the start (desspite my team reveal saying the opposite) happy with either at this stage

  9. throttlefinger says:

    Stellar write up Lek. Been waffling at paying that much for a def, especially after taking a hit on Shaw last season. But you've made some excellent points why Simmo won't leave us scorched. Could be the next Mr. SD. Highly considering him, as we need some teeth in our back line as we watch the top players in the forward line emerge. Well done, my friend!

    • LEKD0G says:

      I never considered paying that much until I was researching him. One year under 90 in a decade, 5 missed games in a decade, absolute gun.

      Agree re: tooth length, defence is where the old shine

      • throttlefinger says:

        Evidence is clearly on his side in terms of selection. Not as sure on Docherty. Think the Double S Express may be the way to go: Simmo/Shaw.

  10. Luskin Star says:

    Great analysis as usual Lek but its a no from me. My golden rule (at least for this week) is to not start with anyone over 30 unless they are haevily discounted. One year they will plummet in scoring and i dont want to be stuck with them when they do. Prefer him as an upgrade once i am comfortable that this is not the year.

    • LEKD0G says:

      Not a bad rule, mine is normally no one over $500k in defence but due to a lack of forward options I may break that rule in 2017

      • I N Pieman says:

        I disagree with that theory Luskin. Your ruling yourself out. I can see many valuable commodities that are over 30 years old & over 500k. But it's an opinion business & only one person will be right at the end of the season. Genuine midfielders based on work load worry me over 30 years old. Not so much in other positions

        • LEKD0G says:

          Pie I agree with the workload on midfielders, that's a position where I try to steer clear of older blokes. It'ss also a possition that clubs are investing a lot of youth into, less likely to change up a Simpson or Deldio (up forward) role, but will be happy to move out a Boyd or Mitchell to make room for the up and comers.

          • I N Pieman says:

            I had Matt Boyd last year at 33. He was awesome. And didn't Roo score 190 in the last round & he's about 50

            • Luskin Star says:

              Yes they all had stellar seasons but there will be a year when age catches up. I think there are enough younger players that have not yet hit their peak but have already shown that they are capable of premium output regularly to not take the risk with the older guys. Happy to start doc, adams and hurley as my premo backs

  11. Gaveday says:

    Super consistent – but I'd go docherty over Simpson. Nice write up – nothing to argue with in it, but I can't go 2 Blues premo defenders at rd1.

  12. KingBlue14 says:

    I was on a crusade last year to convince people to have Simmo and Doc in their starting line up, with both in the 400k range to begin with, I don't think I convinced one person and they ended up forking out premium prices for them both mid year.

    I told people about Simmos solid points average over the years, the fact he was running PB's in the pre season last year and that he would rather cut off a finger than put in a bad performance for the Club, with a young list there will be plenty of players wanting to take over from Tuohy as well as maybe some older guys looking for a new angle within the team, and with the likes of Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman, White, Ciaran Byrne, A.Silvagni and Ciaran Sheehan there is no need for Simmo to play any different to how he did in 2016 with Tuohy gone, so he will be free to play that intercept marking, sweeping role he is so good at.

    Kade Simpson is finally getting the respect he deserves in SuperCoach and I can only hope this continues on into the real world as he is one of the most underrated players in the competition, he is easily the most courages player in the entire League, and it's none of this Joel Selwood ducking crap that everyone seems to call courages for some reason, his listed weight is 76kg and he genuinely goes back with the flight of the ball instinctively with his eyes locked on the pill, will stand in front of anyone steaming towards him and he is always the first one to attack out of defence even when the game is on the line. Don't be fooled by his lack of contested possessions, if Bolts gave Simmo the nod he would be like a rabid dog after the ball but how it stands at the moment he is more valuable with his clean disposals and having a bit more time to instruct a young backline.

    Words haven't been created yet for how much respect and love I have for this guy

  13. wombatsfc says:

    Well done Lek you've fully exposed a modern defensive enigma, unquestionably the best there has ever been at what he does yet almost unheralded by non-carlton supporters.
    In his first 3-games he didn't get a single disposal in fact in his first 2 years he only managed12 possessions in total from 6 games. Then came his 3rd year (2005) where he ave 83 in the last 7 games including a 49 and 24 to finish the season!

    He's built like like the house of little pig number 2 but played 152 games in a row from round 15 2005, despite breaking a wrist and 3 ribs during the period. He has so much courage he has to leave half of it at home everyday because it can't all fit in his scrawny little body.
    As you mentioned Touhy leaving will benefit Simmo, he will have more freedom to move forward and kick a few goals and Marchbank and Buckley will cover the bulk of Touhys role in 2017
    Anybody planning to have Simmo in SC this year should start with him because any cash you save by waiting for a price drop will be far less than the value of the trade you use to get him.

    • LEKD0G says:

      Solid points Wombat, he has been a great story for the Carlton footy club and I think these final chapters may be his best. Agree with the point you make about selecting him now and not later, hard to get across that sometimes points are more important than value selections. Wouldn't you rather lock in 1000 points in the first 10 rounds by selecting Simpson at $580K with the risk that he loses some cash, if you select say a Hibberd instead you may only have locked in 800 points.

  14. TRIGGER HAPPY says:

    You beauty lek. Simmo just gets the job done each week and just keeps churning out gr8 SC scores.
    Due to my bye structure can't start both Simmo and doc but may go the pod in Simmo.
    With Touhy gone void will be filled by marchbank and the intercept steal of macreadie who should both get early games.

  15. frogger says:

    Doc and Simmo both had really low SDs last year (think Docherty 4th lowest SD of defs in top 100 scorers / 12th all positions relative to average) and even though it shouldn't matter in picking your side, Simpson just seems like a top bloke. And is very durable.

    It might be false economy not to start him as his price is not likely to fluctuate enough to make it worthwhile.

    The only thing is that he outperformed his usual 95 average by 10 pts last year, seems possible he'll revert to somewhere in between. The impulse is to convince yourself you might be able to find better value somewhere if you pull the right rein.

  16. Steeeve says:

    Won't be taking Doc or Kade into my starting side at this stage. Both absolutely maxed out on price you'd reckon.