Jamie Elliott Supercoach 2017

Filed in Community Series, Supercoach, Supercoach 2017 by on January 2, 2017 • views: 4506

Jamie Elliott AFL Fantasy 2017Goal savy and prone to ink, he’s got potential written all over him.

by Gaveday

One of the many players who’ve recently lost a season through injury Jaimie Elliott returns to the pies as an under priced small forward that will appeal to many of the carrying bush faithful and the bargain hunting SuperCoach. Despite having a card table for a spine you can bet he’ll make you money if he plays – but is that enough to pick him for round 1?

The biggest thing I like about this pint sized man is he’s strong overhead. In fact he took mark of the year in 2013. He’s almost more of a target forward than a crumber – but he can do that too. He’s kicked bags of 5 and was Collingwood leading goal kicker in 2015 (35) .

At only 24 years of age he has had his moments but failed to find consistency for us SuperCoaches. And that’s the tale of the small forward, when they’re off – they are off. But at under 300k – he is on community – and just like that old Toyota ad – “please consider” is the least you should do….

SECURED YOUR 2017 JOCK REYNOLDS MAGAZINE YET? TIME IS SHORT – GET ON!

2017 Price: $291,700
2017 Position: FWD
Games last season: 0 (20 in 2015)
Average last season: na (77 in 2015)
100+ games last season: na (4 in 2015)
Sub 80 games last season: na (10 in 2015)
Price range last season: na ($451K – $310K in 2015)
Missed games last season:
  • all of them, missed the season with a back injury
Significant history:
  • first player to dethrone Travesty Cloke of the Coventry medal in 5 years
  • is expected to be in full training by straya day
  • inked up to the hilt

It’s a big year for Buckley’s Brigade, no finals will surely see “naffan” sacked. So the return of Elliott will be music to Buck’s ears and be a real boost for the pies. With the likes of Han Fasolo and Tim Broomhead they’ve got handy small forwards that should provide real threat on the deck inside 50. But expect him to start if fit, he’ll nudge out any of those blokes for a spot on the park. My main concern with Elliott however is simply that goals don’t guarantee SuperCoach relevance. In 2015 he kicked 5 against North (SC 125) and also against the Suns (SC 87) but as you can see only one of those scores is note worthy. So what’s the difference?

Forward pressure. That means tackling and getting stoppages inside the arc while doing some clearance work. An area the pies will need to lift if they’re to make finals, and subsequently so will Elliott. So look for early form from the pies as an indicator as to his SuperCoach prospects. If they look flimsy as a club he may not be worth the punt.

SELECTION PURPOSE

An expensive cow that may blossom into a keeper. You can go into rd1 with him as a fwd 5/6 with an eye to an upgrade around the byes. Is just a question of how much money will he make you? Or how much you, will find acceptable. This ones a long range forecast – so have a target profit margin – He’ll break 400k for shiz, and likely peak at over 450k. And that’s when you’d go bang.

Jock Reynolds Supercoach Magazine 2017

THE GOOD

  • More than just a small forward crumber, strong overhead
  • Is only 24, best ahead of him
  • Will increase in value

THE BAD

  • Starting price is in the danger zone
  • Potentially has a spine made of paper mache
  • Plays for Nathan Buckley
  • Plays for Nathan Buckley
  • Plays for Nathan Buckley

THE VERDICT

I’m in on this one community, well almost, it’s between him and Hoskin-Elliott, who is predicted to be priced at around 200k, as my F6/7. This will depend greatly on my other lines, budget wise, but I’d prefer to have Jaimie over Will. He’s a more likely points scoring type and I’ll be eyeing to upgrade him mid season in the hope his price will be upwards of 450k.

Godspeed.

YES

Gaveday

Chew the fat with the Gave-man on Twitter. A great character: @gaveday

Jock Reynolds Coach KingsThis article has been penned as part of the Jock Reynolds Community Series, where anyone from within our proud community can have their say in front of their peers. These men and women have displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

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Comments (50)

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  1. Gaveday says:

    Maybe Mickyb – if Will starts on the wing – but I'm just not sure where he fits in at the Lexus centre. I get the feeling he'll be in and out of the team. Elliott will play the season if fit.

    • I N Pieman says:

      Will Hoskin Elliott is a trap. He's priced to AV 41 & has a career SuperCoach AV of 51. Unless he has some sort of amazing new role he's not worth it. His past AV will have had some sub affected games. But don't expect him to make you a quick 200k & make an easy jump to a premium. I'll need to be seriously convinced in the preseason & can't see it happening. There will be better cheaper rookies

  2. I N Pieman says:

    Tough selection this one. Cracking player to watch in full flight. Both my kids favourite player. But this is a ruthless business where favourites are cast aside. I was hoping he come in closer to 200k. Probably a little too pricey for me with Josh Thomas somehow coming back at 193 with DPP. If Thomas is best 22 I'll be very keen. Elliott's awkward price & injury history can't be overlooked. Very unlikely to make my team. Definitely a good case for him & you've nailed all the reasons Gaveday. Great job

    • Timmy Tomahawk says:

      Out of interest Pieman, yr thoughts on the other banished one in Keefe in the backline?

      • Gaveday says:

        Cheers pieman. I think Elliott nudges out Thomas because he's strong overhead. But nothing is guaranteed.
        And Tim Keefe is a lock with Sharenberg for me. Take em both!

      • I N Pieman says:

        Gday timmy. Lachie keefe, right. First of all he's tall & he can defend. So he's a walk up start for round 1. Could AV about 60. So if your happy to have a bloke slow burn up to 300 then that's probably what will happen. For me, I'll only pick him if there's no better options. I've got a few ahead of him but time will tell if they line up round 1. He's an in case of emergency for me at this stage. I'm also hearing they might throw him forward

        • Kev says:

          Bucks also looking at him to play on the wing, in the ruck, and will rotate him as the clubs waterboy

          • I N Pieman says:

            Hope Bucks doesn't read that Kev. He'll have that Intel front & centre of his note pad! Bloody genius that man Bucks

            • Gaveday says:

              The last time Keefe went forward was after being towelled by Jenkins, and he just made himself a potatoe that can move ends.

              I bloody hope he doesn't get forward.

  3. The Bont says:

    291 k , hasn't played in a year , back surgery , plays for Nathan Buckley .. A lot of crosses for me . Ol Tom Boyd same price but a lot more upside plus dpp , that being said I won't pick either but just a comparison . Forward line isn't one to experiment with this year for mine , three guns , three rookies . He could prove me wrong gave .. But I just keep reading 'he plays for Nathan Buckley ' , sends a shudder down the spine

    • Gaveday says:

      I know, I know. But I'm convinced he'll play and reach 450k. It's risky. But for me the forward rookie options aren't plentiful in my book. I'm def having Cam McCarthy. Outside of that I'm dubious on the options available.

      • The Bont says:

        Aaron black . Pickett from Carlton , Brett eddy from port , smith from Melbourne all good options , all 137k or under / n

        • Gaveday says:

          None of those are guaranteed a full season – I could maybe take one, but I'm not covncinced. As it stands Eddy is my bench warmer F8. But I'm waiting for a rookie pick to emerge. They usually do.

          • The Bont says:

            Brett eddy is ready made and mature age leading goal kicker in the sanfl , t smith centre half forward of the year in the vfl , eddy will slot straight into j shulzs spot and t smith I'm hoping does the same with Dawes spot . Pickett a former number four draft pick should get a run early and could cement a spot … Aaron blacks an unsure option but as you said someone else will rear their head

            • Gaveday says:

              Wasn't Butcher the last version of ports Eddy?? All promise – "ready made" – did FA! Tread carefully Bont.

      • Timmy Tomahawk says:

        Have a look at most of the score that Cam McArthy served up in 2015 – http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pu-fremantle-d… #Rubbish – He might have kicked a few sausage rolls, but obviously does not do much of anything else points scoring related…

        • Gaveday says:

          He was 20 at the time, in a team with more awesome young key forwards than they can possibly field. Wait for my article! You'll be converted I'm sure.

  4. Kev says:

    Don't share your optimism on this one, Gaveday. I had a look at his numbers from 2015, 5 scores between 30-60. Ouch!

    Probably will get back up to 450k region, but it will be a slow burn.

    • Gaveday says:

      Young and sub affected. He'll make you the coin – I promise

      *not a guarantee

      • jockreynolds says:

        If I was sure he'd get up to $450K I'd take him – biggest worry is the injury and limited preseason. I reckon I'll let him slide Gave – really enjoy your stuff mate

  5. Adam says:

    Strongly considering Elliot but he is vying with Bennell for the F1 spot.

  6. MJS says:

    Unless a forward can potentially hit 90+ then there's no point starting them unless they're a rookie. I don't see him hitting 80, so at 291k it's a big no.

    • Gaveday says:

      I'm copping a bit of stick – well not really, but I understand the aversion but I'll remind everyone he did hit the 450k in his last full season.

      • MJS says:

        He was always going to be a hard sell at that price. As mentioned already you can pick up Tom Boyd at the same price.

        For me personally, for what he is come R1 I'd either go that bit extra to look at Bennell/Christensen (which I've done on paper) or go low and look at Luggage/Bowes/Black

  7. Danners says:

    Nice work Gaveday! Seen him floating around, looks a good option. Not sure about what he can average though

  8. Freddy Frog says:

    Anyone know when supercoach opens?

  9. Derek says:

    i've had a look at my draft 2017 team this morning, and there have been some strange happenings, i may have been drinking over NY, supercoaching in my sleep or my Son has my login and messing with my team, but I now have 8 Mid-price players in my strictly Guns & Rookies team! Madness.

    Watson, Beams, M, Murphy, B Murphy, Sandi, Wingard, Ryder & Heeney.

    before i delete and start again, what are people's thoughts on these Mid-price Fallen premiums (except Heeney)?

    • Derek says:

      add Roughie to that list

      • The Bont says:

        Gday derek ,
        A lot of them rely on fitness and pre season for me , beams is probably top of the pile of must haves but also with his shoulders and knee probably along with sandi and bob holds the most risk , I would be blown away if any of them play a full season or even half for that matter , but all are capable of premium output so it's a risk perhaps worth taking , but perhaps just on one of those three , otherwise your going to burn a lot of trades . Smurf is capable of big scores so has good value if his body holds up .
        Wingard relies a lot on ports success and I don't see them improving this year , he's got all the talent in the world but hard to see him getting many big bags or making a huge impact , year after year port say they are going to give him mid time which would be great for his scores , but I think they rely on him to heavily to drag him out of he forward line. Ryder's a must have if you're going with sandi , and I think we're all hoping roughie can get back to his best but will be a close watch over preseason .

        • Derek says:

          Thanks Bont.

          I started the pre-season saying that i wasn't going to pick any player with Injury doubts. I started with B Crouch last year and stuffed my season up.

          That puts a line through Beams, Murphy x2, Sandi, JOM, Swallow, Ablett, Scharenberg, delidio, Bennell

          Although sandi and Beams do offer great value i doubt i'll be risking them, maybe.

          I'm keeping watson and Roughie for now, not injured last year and both will be huge stories for 2017.

      • Keenbutclueless says:

        I saw that Roughie is on light training and they were aiming around May.
        Watson I think is the easiest to delete. Not quite a stepping stone, not quite a premium. Tooth length, time out of the game, possible forward role given the emergence of Zerrett and Parish.
        Beams says he is managing a knee, so maybe won't be a keeper. Brisbane has good early draw so might be a stepping stone.
        Murphy also might be a stepping stone because of his early draw.
        If you are looking for stepping stones, consider D Swallow and S Selwood instead. Do the sums on the potential cash generation and you may lean towards them instead.
        Wingard is like so many of the forward options – real stab in the dark. Gut feel is that there will be a lot of options rise and fall during the year. Think it's going to be a mess there all year.
        Sandi I like. Good early draw, even with Gawn and Goldy. No third man up benefits him. Reckon he will average 100 and can upgrade later. Also note that the other two Freo ruck men are injured, so he is less likely to get rested early
        Picking Sandi probably strengthens the argument for picking Ryder as cover. Lack of forward line options also helps. I am seeing them as a bit of a pair at this stage.
        I think the lack of must pick rookies until they emerge preseason pushes us towards these mid priced options at this time of year. We just need to let them go as the rookies emerge. Not always easy when they sit in our team for these few months leading in.

        • Derek says:

          thanks. I reckon you are right on Watson. put a line through him.

          Roughie could be a mid-season option, line through him as well.

          I like your thoughts on sandi. At $308k he is just great value

          • Derek says:

            Cleaned out all the mid-pricers with Injury concerns and come up with this as my first serious pre-season team.

            DEF: Docherty, Shaw, Adams, McGrath, Ryan, Rookie (Rookie x2)

            MIDS: Dangerfield, Pendlebury, JPK, Bont, Fyfe, Heppell, SPP, Rookie (Rookie x3)

            RUC: Gawn, Sandi (rookie)

            FWD: Dahlhaus, Macrae, Wingard, Heeney, Rookie, Rookie (Rookie x2)

            I belive that both Wingard and Heeney can be in the top 8 forwards

    • Luskin Star says:

      If they are fit Beams and Sandi are genuine keepers. The rest are now genuine mid pricers.

    • Moustachio says:

      Two categories there: cows and keepers. IMO you can't keep Jobe or Murphies or Sandi all season, they are just money makers. I think only Sandi makes enough cash to justify the trade.

      Beams, Wingard, Ryder and Heeney all have top potential for their position so potential keepers.

  10. Derek says:

    Great write Gaveday, plenty to think about.

    Elliott is in the "just a bit too expensive" category for me.

    I would even look at Riley Knight, Kieran Lovell, Cam McCarthy all around $200k before Elliott.

    • I N Pieman says:

      Agree with the just a bit too expensive conclusion. Exactly where I sit. Great player to watch but

  11. LEKD0G says:

    I think I'll avoid him, dangerously close to a midpricer when we have a lot of GCS rookies to look at. I do like the value he provides though but he's a risk I won't take.
    Great write-ups all preseason mate!

  12. wombatsfc says:

    I hope Elliott gets back to his best coz he's great to watch but I doubt that he'll match his previous best this year even if his back is 100% fixed. A back is a big part of a persons being and anyone who has had major problems in that area takes a while to recover psychologically. I tried a forward line setup with Jamie and suddenly the room filled with smoke.

  13. frogger says:

    Thought it might be interesting to have a quick look at Elliott's viability as a stepping stone using historical data:

    Projecting from 2017 starting price using 2014 score data:
    Avg thru Max Price (rd 9): 93 // Avg thru Jump-Off (rd 12): 90 // Max of Avg (rd 7): 99
    Max Price: 490k // Increase vs starting price at max: 198k // Increase thru Jump-Off (rd 12): 165k // Increase thru Max of Avg (d 7): 152k

    Projecting from 2017 starting price using 2015 score data:
    Avg thru Max Price (rd 13): 79 // Avg thru jump-off (rd 12): 82 // Max of Avg (rd 10): 86
    Max Price: 439k // Increase vs starting price at max: 148k // Increase thru jump-off (rd 12): 137k // Increase thru Max of Avg (rd 10): 97k

    Use as stepping stone to generate ~150k if he gets off to a good start as he did in 2014/2015 is possible, e.g. thru Coll rd 13 bye.
    But that's optimistic: LTI, pies' hot start 2014/2015 reproducible? etc. There look to be better options in / above / below his price range.

    Anyway, thought I'd try to contribute for once instead of just passively consuming others' work. Cheers.

    • Gaveday says:

      Yes it's optimistic, I'll concede that, the pies have a tough run early and he's no lock for rd 1. But i firmly believe he can rise to 450k. LTI's can be a big risk – but once Elliott is named he's going in my side – hopefully by rd1. If not, I'll trade him in after he's played 2.