Tom J Lynch Supercoach 2017

Filed in Community Series, Supercoach, Supercoach 2017 by on December 11, 2016 • views: 3895

Tom Lynch Supercoach 2017Year of the KPF – Do we even have a choice?

by Kev

What a bloody year this has been. Terror attacks, Zika, Brexit, police shootings, Syria, Trump, record-hot temperatures, the losses of Alan Rickman, Prince and David Bowie, the boffins at Supercoach HQ absolutely DECIMATING our forward line for 2017.

There was already whisperings that the top 3 averaging forwards in 2016 – Zerrett, Zorko, Dusty – would be losing their DPP status. We’d get past that, Supercoach is always about strategy, but the reality of it really hit hard when the full list hit on a Friday afternoon. Barlow, Greene, Hall, Wells, Joey – all stripped off DPP status. Of the top 10 averaging forwards last year, only key forwards Saint Nick (4th), JJK (8th) still stand, along with Luke Dahlhaus (9th)

tom-lynch

We’ve been thrown a ragtag bunch of new DPP’s and to be honest, none of them excite me in the slightest. It’s time to break the golden rule of Supercoach: Don’t pick key position forwards. Arise Sir Thomas J Lynch!

THE HIGGINATOR 2017 IS HERE! THE MOST SOPHISTICATED FREE SUPERCOACH TEAM BUILDER IN THE NATION.

2017 Price: $507,200
2017 Position: FWD
Games last season: 22
Average last season: 93.2
100+ games last season: 9
Sub 80 games last season: 7
Price range last season:  $376k – $529k
Missed games last season:
  • none
Significant history:
  • Averaged 2.82 contested marks per game (ranked #1 in the AFL)
  • Averaged 3.45 marks inside 50 per game (ranked #2 in the AFL)
  • Equal 3rd goals per game (3)
  • SC average points has gone from 83.2 – 89 – 93.2 past 3 seasons

Jock Reynolds Supercoach Magazine 2017

RISK FACTOR

There’s always an element of risk picking a KPF. Scroll back up and look at games the amount over 100, and again at games under 80. While you’re there check out his price range. It’s enough to to make you want to tear your bloody hair out.

Rather than stick to the rollercoaster scoring that KPF’s are known for, he just goes straight up missing (impressive for a bloke standing 199cm) He delivered us some absolute garbage in the middle of the year, dishing up a 37 and a 42 in a run of 4 games where he averaged just 55.8. Take those out and his average jumps to 98.6. His durability is a plus, only missing two games in 3 years.

SELECTION PURPOSE

You won’t be making a lot of coin out of Tom, at 505k you’ll be putting your plums on the line picking him as a premium keeper. You’d also be hoping that he can get rid of those stain on the underpants scores and his bad games become 80’s.

Natural progression should see this happen. He took on greater responsibly in 2016, Becoming a co-captain alongside Steven May and the now-departed Dion Prestia. Alongside May and 2m

Peter Wright, the Suns forward line – on paper at least – looks threatening.

THE GOOD

  • Rarely leaves the field – 96.3% time on the ground in 2016
  • Target for the Suns. Kicked at least a goal every match and 3 or more 12 times
  • Finished the year strong. Averaged 99.6 with only 1 under 80 game post bye (10 games)

THE BAD

  • Tackle adverse – needs to put on more forward pressure
  • Can (and probably will) lead you to a rage trade on Monday morning
  • High midfield turnover at the Suns in 2017. Will he get decent delivery?
  • The Captaincy.. could be good, could be bad?

THE VERDICT

I changed my mind a few times doing this writeup. It was difficult to fault his numbers. When you consider a contested grab (6 points) + kick (4 points) + goal (8 points) is 18 points. Times that by 3 sausage rolls a game he’s hitting 54 points by doing what the stats says he’s done in 2016. He doesn’t have to do a whole lot more to get into the 80’s and a day out will push is score further north.

However, this game isn’t just about stats. Part of me refuses to let go of the “No KPF’s” unwritten rule that the Father of Fantasy has instilled in us. 2017 is the year to roll with the punches, Tom has a decent ceiling and with stuff all else you should…

CONSIDER

Kev

He’s on bloody fire this preseason! Chat with the great man below.

Jock Reynolds Coach KingsThis article has been penned as part of the Jock Reynolds Community Series, where anyone from within our proud community can have their say in front of their peers. These men and women have displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

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Comments (26)

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  1. jockreynolds says:

    "We’ve been thrown a ragtag bunch of new DPP’s and to be honest, none of them excite me in the slightest. It’s time to break the golden rule of Supercoach: Don’t pick key position forwards. Arise Sir Thomas J Lynch!"
    Kev, Community Series, December 11, 2016.

    Bloody brilliant write up Kev! Absolute top shelf. It is a brave new world we've been presented with up FWD this season. I'll be looking to use my FWD line to stockpile rookies as much as is practically possible.. I'm down as 'unlikely' for tommy j.

    • Kev says:

      Cheers, Jock. Keep flip-flopping on him myself. Plenty of high priced rookies up forward sure, now it's a mental game for these guys. Can they step to the rigours of AFL? Going top 10 in the draft doesn't always lead to success (Tambling…)

      Wary of rookie stockpiling blowing up in my face

  2. Adam says:

    Lynch will be one of my first upgrade targets but a no for starting squad as I'm currently considering starting with no premiums in the forward line.
    Current line up is:
    Def: Docherty, Simpson, Johannisen, Hartlett, Murphy, Scharenberg, Newman, Vicker-Wills,
    Mids: Dangerfield, Pendlebury, Kennedy, Selwood, Gray, Bontempelli, Fyfe, Brodie, Myers, Powell-Pepper, Graham
    Rucks: Goldstein, Sandilands, Strnadica
    Fwds: McCarthy, McCluggage, Bowes, Florent, Black, Pickett, Rioli, Eddy

    • I N Pieman says:

      Now that's what I call a robust midfield!!!! Looking through this side Adam I'd suggest you know a fair bit about the rookies

    • Kev says:

      That's a hell of a structure, Adam! Who are your upgrade targets up front or will you wait to see which forwards come to the party?

      • Adam says:

        Upgrade targets up forward are L Dahlhaus, N Riewoldt, T Lynch, J Macrae, B Deledio, I Heeney.

        • Odie says:

          Considering his starting price, Heeney isn't a great upgrade target. If you believe he'll be a top 10 forward then he should be in your starting team.

          Some food for thought.

    • Kevan says:

      Love the structure Adam. Played with Mr Higgo's spread sheet and put in a must have in the forward line, plus changed some of the premos and put in a breakout player in defence.
      Current line up is:
      Def: Docherty, Adams, Williams, Murphy, Marchbank, Scharenberg / 123/123 rookies.
      Mids: Dangerfield, Ablett, Parker, J, Selwood, Treloar, Bontemplelli, Fyfe, Brodie / Powell-Pepper, Myers, 123.
      Rucks; Goldstein, Sandilands, Strnadica.
      Fwds: Ryder, McCluggage, Bowes, Florent, Black, Pickett / 123/123 rookies
      $13400 left with projected round score of 2040pts

  3. I N Pieman says:

    Stella review Kev. I think the only key forward id pay over 500 for is buddy. Lynchs variance in price throughout the season means he's likely to bottom out at some point & perhaps that's the time to strike with this beast. The early bye for GC further complicates. Like jock I'm planning a rookie assault up front. There will be some good ones with DPP

    • Kev says:

      Good point, Pie. Probably not capable of those bananas 150+ games that Buddy can pull out, but don't see him dropping into the 300's either. If he's mid/low 400's after his bye with a low standard deviation I'd like him as a POD

      • I N Pieman says:

        As Higgo pointed out they have a nice run home. If there in the hunt for the top 8 he could be a good option to jump on

    • TRIGGER HAPPY says:

      Ahh buddy may not be the lock everyone thinks…

      Have done an article on him which i hope will at a minimum give everyone some food for thought..

      Stay tuned

  4. Patch says:

    Love this Kev – I had him the back half of last season and he delivered in spades. With Gold Coast's draw he is looking very probable – but as we still have months to go I'm not calling anyone a lock at this stage.

    Beautiful write up here mate.

    • Kev says:

      Had him as well Patch, bit of Hail Mary move after the byes and was very impressed. Few kinks in his game but I think in years to come he'll be a very relevant option

  5. jockreynolds says:

    The Higginator has landed lads!!

  6. MoustachioSC says:

    The GCS midfield could bat reasonably deep next year… GAJ, Barlow, Hall and Touk Touk all fit would lead to a lot more opportunities for Lynch next year. If you factor in natural improvement it would be hard to see him not being a top forward.

    If those walking injury risks look like having a strong pre-season / NAB (GAJ especially), I will be
    a) Locking GAJ
    b) Locking Lynch

    • Luskin Star says:

      My thinking is the same as yours.

    • TRIGGER HAPPY says:

      Interesting,

      GC have the early bye most other teams thinking going without GC boys

      Interesting.

      • Moustachio says:

        Yeah structure wise you would have to give high consideration to starting GCS and PTA to get you through byes since its not hard to cover 2 teams being out (assuming you don't go crazy and fill half your team from them).

        Locks for mine so far look like Hartlett, Ryder, Swallow, Bowes, SPP, Eddy. And then GAJ and Lynch if GCS looking strong.

        Hmmm a bit to cover actually! More than a quarter of my team would be out in that bye… Hoping GCS does not have a stellar NAB, then I can wait to upgrade to GAJ/Lynch if their season comes together before byes. And if not then Robbie Gray will probs have hit some cheap price point to snap up instead.

  7. Danners says:

    Nice work Kev! Could look a nice option, I have Gunston in my team at the moment, could change to Lynch though

  8. MOC says:

    cheers for the write up kev! If gold coast are at full strength r1, he will be firmly in my calculations as f2 with buddy the other kpp im considering

  9. BarronVonCrow says:

    I'm digging him, fellas. Without Zorko and Martin i'm feeling kinda lukewarm on the Macrae and Caddy replacements, so I've been rubber necking every time I cruise past Lynch's name in the Higginator.

  10. fatboyfat7 says:

    As it stands he's in my team. He'll get better service this year and is taking on responsibility at the club. They have a great draw and with the lack of forward options around, he's in my starting team. The early bye too will be advantageous come R11-R13. If I didn't start him I'd only be looking to trade him in post R9 to cover this period anyway so may as well save a trade and go with him…

  11. shareware says:

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