Gary Ablett Supercoach 2017

Filed in Community Series, Supercoach, Supercoach 2017 by on November 24, 2016 • views: 3948

Gary Ablett supercoach 2017

The man. The myth. The shoulder.

by BBQ’s Treloar

 “Only one who devotes himself to a cause with his whole strength and soul can be a true master. For this reason, mastery demands all of a person” – Albert Einstein

We need to think long and hard when considering who we know as ‘The Little Master’ this year. GAJ has undoubtedly been the greatest fantasy footballer ever to have graced this wonderful game of ours. It feels unnatural and almost disrespectful to speak ill of this great man.

But, our community deserves a balanced view. We cannot let our love for this great cloud our Supercoach judgement.

GAJ has only managed a total of 20 games in the last two seasons. To put that into a bit of perspective, the man we all consider injury ridden, Daniel Wells, has played the same amount of games as GAJ over that period.

News from a close source at Gold Coast is that GAJ is close to a full recovery and should resume training early in the pre-season. Also strong word that GAJ passes on the captaincy.

2017 Price: $620,600
2017 Position: MID
Games in 2016: 14
Average in 2016: 114.1
100+ games in 2016: 10
Sub 80 games in 2016: 1
Price range in 2016: $541K – $636K
Missed games last season:
  • 8 total
  • Concussion 1 week round 9
  • Shoulder last 7 rounds of the season
Significant history:
  • Averages 131 in first 5 rounds since 2007.
  • In injury years 2014 – 2016 averages 124 first 5 rounds (note: 2015 was only 2 rounds)

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RISK FACTOR

Obviously, the shoulder. GAJ has had a different surgery to the last time he stuffed it. The doc’s will make sure he takes all the time he needs to get better for early in pre-season, but he will have to take the meds this time around.

Is he still motivated to reach the top again? He delayed his start to the preseason with an ‘extended honeymoon’ on the back of requesting a trade to Geelong before the trade period. Is he still fair dinkum?

Another risk is that we see GAJ have more forward time next year.

May not get his full price discount. Has happened before.

SELECTION PURPOSE

Keeper. Elite player at a huge discount.

THE GOOD

  • It’s GAJ
  • Should be back early in pre-season. This means we will see him in the pre-season games.
  • Average in first 5 rounds is ridiculous.
  • Free role, no captaincy.

THE BAD

  • The shoulder.
  • Will be tagged.
  • Has been provided no injury discount as was expected.

THE VERDICT

YES – must take him at any price point. That’s right, I’m going with GAJ at any price. We are talking about the greatest ever fantasy footballer to have lived. I don’t give a stuff about his shoulder. Worst case, I’m banking on his first 5 rounds giving him a nice price rise, anything after that is a bonus. GAJ himself is worth the risk for 1 trade.

YES – predicted 2017 average first 5 rounds (124.7 – 135.4)
YES – predicted 2017 average (124.2 – 132.3)
YES – predicted 2017 games (17-20)

Nick “BBQ’s Treloar” Z

Chew the fat with Nick in the comments below, or over on twitter: @N_Zvezdak

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Jock Reynolds Coach KingsThis article has been penned as part of the Jock Reynolds Community Series, where anyone from within our proud community can have their say in front of their peers. These men and women have displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

Gary Ablett Community Poll:

Where are you at with Gary Ablett in 2017?

View Results

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Comments (53)

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  1. Mac says:

    This will all come down to how well he performs in the NAB challenge and if he has an uninterrupted pre season after he returns. We all know what he is capable of, but we must not forget that he is not going to be the same Gary Ablett of old. I'm unsure he can return to his best, but I bloody hope he does. One of the greatest players I've ever seen play and I hope he proves all the critics wrong and torches the competition next year.

  2. I N Pieman says:

    Dear Gary. I will never forget all the joyous memories we had. But it's over Gary. It's not you Gary, It's me. Well, actually it is you. You just don't give it to me the way you used to. And the truth is Gary I've met someone else. He's plays for your old mob & wears number 35. I can't have you back Gary. Until I shit my pants about 5 minutes before round 1 & I stuff you I my team

  3. @N_Zvezdak says:

    Thanks Mac. Confident he will play Rd1 at this stage. If he lines up, he is in my team. I'll back the great man to smack out a solid first 5 rounds. The price point will be a factor for many, but I'll back myself in and take him at any price he is released at.

  4. Kev says:

    Oh Gary. The head says no but the heart says yes. I'm not emotionally ready yet to make such a call. Under 500k almost forces my hand, hell even under 550k I'd slot him in. We all know what he can do when he's on song.

    The write up was in good hands, BBQ. I probably would have turned it into a serenade.

    • jockreynolds says:

      His starting price is a massive factor – $493K is based on a 20% discount – if they don't discount him he'll be around $616K. Crucial.

      • Kev says:

        616k makes things hard (not the same thing as a 493k Gary Ablett)

        10% discount has him 554k.

        Gives us a cheap Gary, fellas! You've already stuffed us around with this shithouse bye business next year

        • @N_Zvezdak says:

          Thanks Kev, appreciate the feedback.

          Sometimes we have to go with the gut feel. If he is in Rd1, I'm backing Gary at any price lads. The higher he is, the greater the POD.

  5. Nick Wealands says:

    This is the player you could Shark Move!
    Will probably play 7-8 of the opening rounds and then get injured for some god forsaken reason.
    Move him on for a whole lotta dosh and plenty of early points in the bag
    Great write up BBQ

    • @N_Zvezdak says:

      Thanks Nick, That's the idea mate. Hopefully he can push on after a BIG first 5 rounds. Let's see how it goes.

    • Crowls says:

      This is most viable option for those starting GAJ. Speaking as someone who got two fyfe sub 60 scores last year I am not risking it this year. 616k is a lot of money to end up with a trade, lost cash and low points at the start of the season. Additionally GAJ would normally be a C option (as was fyfe last year) adds to your points loss when it all goes tits up.

  6. Hot Shame says:

    Everything needs to go perfect for him for me to consider him, from pre season to nab form. Which will be hard, as he isnt renowned for his commitment to either. Has too much against him atm to even consider him, let alone lock him in. Age, serious injuries to overcome, speculation where he will be in 2018. The Suns may as well start planning life without Ablett, like we should.. A step slower, a touch less class, 1 thought on playing with Danger an Jelwood in 2018. If the Suns dont look like playing finals, he could kaibosh his season in last few rounds to ensure an injury free ride to his beloved Cats. Too many questions, and we wont have the answers untill well into 2017 i feel..

    • @N_Zvezdak says:

      Thanks mate, I dare say many will have a similar view to what you have just suggested. Don't write him off yet though.

      • Crowls says:

        GAJ will score 40+ goals if he stays on the ground. Will pump out a couple of 150+ games to remind us of his glory days and sublime skills. BUT for those of us with weak hearts we will be on edge for each minute he is on the ground. Too much of a health risk for us blokes with dodgy tickers

  7. TRIGGER HAPPY says:

    There r danger signs everywhere for gaz (pun)
    I think the time has come for the new king to take the throne. He is just so much more durable reminds me of the Garry of old.
    Durability will be at the forefront of my team next year.
    Gaz at 600 Def not gaz at 500? Tempting but probably no.
    Will put in one of these injured premos just don't think it will be gaz.
    To quote forrest: must be hard being a king. Thanks for the ride bald jesus. It has been a pleasure.
    .
    Now watch me scramble next year when everyone rise takes the punt :)

  8. Danners says:

    Great stuff BBQ! Unfortunately like Pieman, I can't trust him no more. I feel its the end of the road for Gary

  9. BarronVonCrow says:

    Don't think I'll touch him. Don't particularly trust him, not showing up to the start of pre-season shows you how dedicated he is to the Suns. He's tired of losing, wants to be back in Victoria.

    If he's super cheap I may go for him, but I'll probably move him on as soon as I can.

  10. Big G says:

    I think it is obvious he will play less in the guts next year, but is a safe bet (more than any other player) to average 100-105 wherever he plays

    • @N_Zvezdak says:

      Interesting call. At 100-105 if named in the mids you probably wouldn't take him. I'm going with a big first 5 rounds.

  11. Timmy Tek says:

    Few articles out today that have started to prick the arousal level of the 'Flog-o-meter' on old Gaz… Have we been so blinded by brilliance all this time to not notice that perhaps GAJ, as hard as this is to write – could be a total and massive tosser!? Geez. The son of God really believes his press it seems. If ever there was a time to get back to pre-season training and lead the way – it is now. This prima donna styled floggery does not bode well for us who are flirting with the idea of slotting him in the midfield from the outset. Dear Gary – you never go full-retard, please do not go full-flog. It will be too hard to witness…

    • @N_Zvezdak says:

      From another perspective, missing so much footy has got to be pretty tough on him, especially after being so consistent. An interesting move not being back day one like a Captain should be…. but he might just not be the captain next year either.

    • jockreynolds says:

      Timmy! Wonderful to see you in here mate. I must admit to having allowed myself similar feelings yesterday. I issued myself with 120 lashes with the cat-o-nine-tails out the backyard for impure thoughts. I have awoken this morning feeling cleansed.. but slightly concerned. Back bloody hurts as well.

  12. Thommo says:

    I just don't think he's worth the punt. The new breed, aka bont and crippa, are way in front. I agree durability is the key, just can't see him holding up for the season. It's a no from me.

    • I N Pieman says:

      Cripps has suffered a back injury & will miss the next 3 months. That's most of the preseason. The red pen just got put to use

      • TRIGGER HAPPY says:

        Blues better pick up Brodie to replace him

      • Keenbutclueless says:

        He was a near certainty for my side. But like you, now with a blotchy line through him. With Ablett, looking at the byes, my early strategy is to bring in Port or Gold Coast premiums after their early bye. Robbie Gray, and potentially GAJ. Reading this, people are expecting his best work early, so goes against that strategy. Might be a deciding factor for a no from me

        • I N Pieman says:

          The POD Keen will be picking Port & GC players with the view that most won't, due to the early bye

          • @N_Zvezdak says:

            Go with your gut Keen, usually the best outcome. Back yourself in mate and stuff the 'norm'.

            Thanks for the update on cornboy.

  13. wombatsfc says:

    Thanks Nick that's an ablettesque review, you could have padded it out with irrelevant fluff but you didn't.
    Gaz for 500k I'll have 3 of him, Gaz for 600k I might watch his first 2 and see what roles Barlow, Lyons and Hanley get

  14. Harry H says:

    It's sad that the golden rule of supercoach 'Pick GAJ at all costs, set and forget captain' days are over. But whilst we shouldn't be, we're all still intrigued by what the great man can pull out. Right now he's a no. In February he's a no. Pumps out 1 good pre season score we get twitchy. Pumps out 3 in a row we all jump on the bandwagon to fall on our knees and plead for forgiveness for doubting the great man, duly placing him in our teams.

    And he'll probably be injured by round 4.

    • @N_Zvezdak says:

      It will be interesting to see what he averages this year if not injured. I think he will be in good shape so for me, I'm sticking with the golden rule.

      Thanks Harry.

      • Harry H says:

        Does Cripps being out change things? I for one intended to go with Bont and Cripps as my first 2 mids picked

  15. @N_Zvezdak says:

    The poll is very interesting so far. A lot more leaning toward a selection rather than not. I'll be running a poll on twitter tomorrow (@N_Zvezdak) on taking GAJ at a $550k price point.

  16. Moustachio says:

    Lads, God not likely to receive any discount, they usually only apply if <10 games played. He will be 616k, which is way too much to start in my team given how cooked that shoulder is.

    My current plan is to grab him after the bye, and if he is injured grab Robbie Gray instead.

  17. Gaveday says:

    Exactly what moustachi said. Played too many games for a significant discount. Having said that – anything under 600k looks some sort of value, based on the old Gary. The current Gary who has half a shoulder, texts in his half time motivational talk, checks flight centre for flights to kardinia, in the misfit Suns outfit – what was I saying? Oh yeah. Maybe take a wide berth from Gary this year.

  18. Butcher of the ball says:

    Not going near him.
    Older + Shoulder + On the outs with teammates.
    Probably be the first year we actually see him playing some time as a small forward and if all the stars align and he does have a great season uninterrupted playing full midfield i still only see him averaging 120 rather than his old 135.
    Risks out way the rewards for me this season.

  19. JamiesNinjas13 says:

    Danger, Fyfe, Gaz all in the starting midfield R1 and affordable based on structures – wow