Dustin Martin Supercoach 2017

Filed in AFL, AFL Fantasy 2017, Community Series, Supercoach, Supercoach 2017 by on November 12, 2016 • views: 2626

Dustin Martin - can old chopsticks get the job done?Chopsticks, or knives and forks?

by Bill

It takes a brave man to take on Chopsticks.

Whenever the waitress strolls around to your table at your local Chinese joint, there’s always one character who takes on the responsibility of the Oriental utensil.

More often than not, he’ll make a dick of himself, fumbling his sweet and sour pork around and staining his finest Bintang singlet.

But when he succeeds, he rises above the pack and draws envious glances from all around the eatery.

In 2017, SuperCoaches face a similar, critical Chopstick decision.

 

Some timeless wisdom from The Crouching One:

The Crouching One Supercoach Wisdom

 

For several years Dustin Martin has been available as a FWD and proven to be one of the best scorers in the position. The only discussion regarding Dusty within the community has been whether to start him straight off the bat or bring him in as an early upgrade target.

This year though we could see that all change, as he’s likely to lose his DPP eligibility after a sensational year as a permanent midfielder. (* note from Jock, confirmed now as MID only). On the flip side, it means his ownership will be down for the first time in a long time.

In 2016, Martin started in 38.5% of sides and finished in 55.7%. His ownership should start at less than half of last year, which means for the first time in his career, Marin could be a POD.

2017 Supercoach Price: $588,300
2017 Position: MID
Games last season: 22
Average in 2016: 108
100+ games last season: 12
Sub 80 games last season: 2
Price range in 2016: $504K (rd6) – $585K (rd18)
Missed games last season: 1
Significant history:
  • Previous three year averages were 105, 99 & 102
  • Missed just one game in the last four years

THE WEEKLY JOCK REYNOLDS PODCAST IS CRANKING. CLICK HERE.

Martin’s ownership was lower than usual at the start of 2016 as SuperCoaches were concerned that ‘Chopstick-gate’ and his old man being deported may affect his early season form. They were proven right to an extent, as he only surpassed 100 once in his first 5 matches. Many coaches, myself included, jumped on at Rounds 6 and 7 when Martin was available for less than $510k.

The rest of his season was sensational. He dropped below 100 just three time from Rounds 6 – 20, including mammoth scores of 167 & 152. His form dipped again in the last few rounds as the season slipped away from a putrid Richmond outfit. He finished 10th overall of all mids in 2016 and 12th of all players.

Jock Reynolds Supercoach Magazine 2017

RISK FACTOR

Martin’s durability and consistency mean he is a safe option. It’s hard to see his form dropping in 2016.

The issue with his selection is that now as a midfielder it becomes much harder to squeeze him into our sides. He’ll be in a similar price bracket to the likes of The Bont, Cripps, Treloar, Sloane, a discounted Fyfe, the list goes on. We can only fit a handful of these guns into our starting side and Dusty could be the odd man out.

Consider these other blokes as the safe, popular options. Conservative men who prefer the tried and tested knife and fork with their peking duck will select these guys. But they won’t stand out from the crowd.

SELECTION PURPOSE

As a premo mid, you’d only pick this bloke if you planned on having him in until Round 23. There’s no injury risk to speak of, the only question is whether his scores get him into the top 10 mids come season’s end.

THE GOOD

  • Extremely durable
  • Ownership will be down for first time in several years
  • Prestia and Caddy giving him a hand should only improve his SuperCoach output – Tiges should be more competitive and Dusty won’t have to do it all on his own

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Has threatened to explode for a 120+ season plenty of times but it hasn’t happened
  • So many attractive premo mid options and we can’t just stuff him into F1.
  • Damien Hardwick is on a scalding hot seat at Tigerland. A bad start could result in him getting the arse and another lost season.

THE VERDICT

Will cause plenty of headaches prior to the 2017 season. Will take some serious testicular fortitude to overlook other players in the price bracket, but it could be the shark move which sets your side apart.

CONSIDER

So community, will you take on chopsticks, or play it safe with the steak knives?

Bill

Chew the fat with Bill below or over on twitter community @Billy_Higgins7

Jock Reynolds Coach KingsThis article has been penned as part of the Jock Reynolds Community Series, where anyone from within our proud community can have their say in front of their peers. These men and women have displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

Dustin Martin Community Poll:

Where are you at with Dustin Martin in 2017?

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Comments (9)

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  1. jockreynolds says:

    Great stuff! Thanks very much Bill. There's no doubt he'll be a point of difference MID selection next season without the FWD eligibility. That opening price is a worry. Pits him around that Patty Cripps, Bontampelli, Tommy Mitchell tier of options which will be hard to fit in depending on your team structure. On the upside – I don't buy into the talk that he'll spend more time FWD this season given Caddy & Prestia are tucking into the lineup. He's just too valuable in the engine room now. Bloody oath he'll have stints up FWD, I just don't think he'll be splitting his time between mid & fwd as much as some reckon.

    No at this stage – if he has a nice early season price drop I'll look to pick him off later

    • Bill says:

      Thanks mate!
      Dont reckon the tiges bat deep enough in the guts for it to affect dusty.
      Something i only thought of after id finished: Dusty's contract is up after this year. Plenty of incentive for him to go large and set himself up for a long term deal worth $1M per year

  2. TRIGGER HAPPY says:

    I enjoyed the chopsticks analogy all the way through. Well thought out.

    If he is mid only will definitely be a pod as people will jump off him in droves like they did when Gray lost his DPP last year.

    wait and see for me.
    I never start dusty as for some reason blues r his bogey team and he always posts a modest SC score. So normally pick him up cheaper Rd 5-6.

    Also wanna see how he goes with the meatball and caddy now in the team

    If pure mid be hard to slot him even if he does drop in price with the quality in and around that price.

  3. neil demonsdelight says:

    Hard to start with.Others just more value and potential keepers Bont Cripps FyfeTreloar.With DPPwould be a definite as cant see many keeper forwards merrett zorko wells and dalhouse warrant thought particularly with dpp A no or maybe

  4. frank says:

    if he was mid fwd would be 100 percent lock but mid only gotta pass on it

  5. Kev says:

    I'm torn. I'm a tiger and I love Dusty. A Dusty fend-off followed by a dribble kick forward is an almost iconic part of our game. Interestingly, his average was only 3 less than the 8th best mid (Selwood)

    Don't see much value in him at 585k. 20-30k cheaper I'd lock him in. That said, he's durable. Runs on the board. High ceiling. Not a bad pod option.

    I agree with you, Bill. Will consider

  6. I N Pieman says:

    Can't see myself starting with him. Reckon he'll be in less than 5% of teams to start with. So he will be a POD. If he presents some decent value at some point of the sorry I'll look at him. I love love a durable player. Great work Bill

  7. Jim says:

    Dusty had good enough numbers towards the mid and later part of the season this year to be a great M5-6. Many, myself included overlooked Robbie Gray as a starter this year due to him loosing his FWD "aledgedability". Although Robbie didn't produce consistent scores this year he should have and was a great POD to gamble on. Dusty is a player with a steady upward trend over many seasons now and should not be overlooked because of his MID status

  8. Danners says:

    Great stuff Bill! Too many midfielders around that price range for me to consider. A handy POD though as a pure MID