Josh Kelly Supercoach 2017

Filed in AFL, AFL Fantasy 2017, Community Series, Supercoach, Supercoach 2017 by on November 8, 2016 • views: 1698

josh kelly GWS supercoachHe’s the one with two balls – but does he have the testicular fortitude?

by BBQ’s Treloar

Josh Kelly played every game in 2016 and strong word is that he has been hitting the gym already and will be back next year bigger and stronger than ever.

The boy has progressed well at the Giants. He’s getting better each year. He’s steadily building his fantasy output each year. And he even took some advice from his old mum leading into the finals series.

A good sign.

 


Some say he has had a breakout year this year already, but let’s dive deeper into his statistics and see how this 4th year player (next year) looks as a prospect for our teams.

2017 Supercoach Price: $473,800
2017 Est. Position: MID
Games last season: 22 (plus both finals)
Average in 2016: 87
100+ games last season: 5
Sub 80 games last season: 8
Price range in 2016: $381K – $484K
Missed games last season: None
Significant history:
  • Less than 20 disposals in only 4 games in 2016
  • More than 10 games with over 25 disposals in 2016

Jock Reynolds Supercoach Magazine 2017

RISK FACTOR

Josh Kelly has evolved through the perfect fantasy score, consistently increasing his average and games played over the last three seasons and he now sits in the infamous ‘fantasy breakout’ territory. With averages of 68, 70, 87, is he primed to raise the bat next season with the ton?

A little bit of talk about Josh playing more up forward next season, although we should see him in the guts.

SELECTION PURPOSE

That mid to upper price tier player hat is ready to take his game to the next level. Breakout potential is very high and we would be selecting him as a unique mid, with the option to upgrade if necessary.

THE GOOD

  • Competitive beast
  • Knows how to find the footy
  • Increase possession total by 40% this year over last year

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Doesn’t kick many goals
  • May find a tag at some stage

THE VERDICT

As will become apparent with my selections, I’ll be going with a real 4th year breakout flavor to my team next year. Josh Kelly has earned himself a spot at this stage.

YES – predicted 2017 average (95.3-108.4)

Nick “BBQ’s Treloar” Z

Chew the fat with Nick in the comments below, or over on twitter: @N_Zvezdak

Jock Reynolds Coach KingsThis article has been penned as part of the Jock Reynolds Community Series, where anyone from within our proud community can have their say in front of their peers. These men and women have displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

Josh Kelly Community Poll:

Where are you at with Josh Kelly in 2017?

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Comments (32)

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  1. Nick Wealands says:

    Terrific write up this to say the least.
    Be interesting to see if he rips some real gut time out of a player such as Dylan Shiel or whether they prefer him in that wing and outside ball user role.
    I love him as a player and reckon he's a flat out gun, but with a vast array of top quality premo's such as Beams at a discount he'll be tough to fit in but definitely one to consider

    • @N_Zvezdak says:

      Thanks mate, appreciate the comments.

      Will definitely be one to keep an eye on during the pre-season to see where he lines up.

  2. Bontemwaldo says:

    G'day gents love the page . Top job with all the write ups .
    With shiel , ward , and an evolving Whitfield I would be very surprised if he cops a tag .. Not damaging enough by foot yet . Great contested Player but not going to take the leap for me .. Not this year too much quality around him . Past averages effected by sub scores so hard to tell how much he has evolved .

  3. @N_Zvezdak says:

    G'day mate,

    Some valid points there. Without his sub-affected scores in 2015, he averaged around 76 which is still a fair jump to the 87 he averaged this year.

    Agree, a lot of quality around him and it will be interesting to see how that plays out early in the year.

    Appreciate your comments. That's the beauty of the Jock Reynolds community, we can have a different opinion on players and all shed some light in our quest for the ultimate glory.

  4. I N Pieman says:

    Love the way this kid goes about it. But there's only so many mid spots up for grabs. Is there some value, maybe a little. Is he a keeper, most likely not. If he was DPP he'd be right in the mix, but that's very unlikely. Won't make my squad as mid only, but I'll be keeping an eye on him. Sublime runner. Nice option BBQ TreloarZ

  5. Ethan says:

    Would be a nice pod to start the season with but so many midfield options this year it's difficult to squeeze in someone like kelly

  6. neil says:

    great stuff mate good choice too. Probably select him at mid 400.my only m/p. GREAT PLAYER WILL MAKE COIN BUT NOT IN FINAL EIGHT STEPPING STONE AT BYES

    • @N_Zvezdak says:

      Hi Neil,

      Depending on how the season progresses we may have that option also. Ideally a POD who has a real breakout next season. Stats say he should, now he needs to deliver.

  7. anthony says:

    i wanna know how much dayne beams and will hoskin elliot and jamie elliot would be

    • I N Pieman says:

      If the 40% injury discount is applied to Elliott he will be about 248K. If Beams price is based on his 2 games this season he will be about 430K. And if Hoskin Elliott's price is based on his 2 games about 264K

      • @N_Zvezdak says:

        Thanks Pieman

      • Moustachio says:

        If they've played <5 games they usually get a 40% discount from previous yrs average… So I am guessing Beams at 367k. WHE would be 134k for same reason, but i think when experienced players get too cheap they apply a minimum price so I expect him at 180k.

  8. gaveday says:

    Yes is a brave call. 4th year average doesn't always bear fruit. In 2018 he will get my attention.

    • @N_Zvezdak says:

      Check out the Diffusion of Innovations bell curve. I'm going with an 'innovator' status on Kelly. Like all things, may have its teething problems 'till 2018.

      thanks gaveday.

  9. jockreynolds says:

    gday lads – we just dropped this week's podcast. Hope you enjoy her! http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2016/11/08/podcast

  10. Jack says:

    Another ripping article fellas. Consider this, if Lachie Whitfield is suspended in 2016 it's gonna mean more mid time for Kelly. At to that the recruitment of Delidio, who will probably play a high half forward role and I can see him taking his game to another level. I think a 100+ average beckons.

    • @N_Zvezdak says:

      Thanks Jack,

      Interesting point, lets see how it plays out. My predictions in the article don't factor in Whitfield missing out.

  11. Kev says:

    Ahh Joshy. Had a good ol' flirt with him in 2016. He was in my preseason team for a long time, possibly up until the last week or two. Glad I took him as his first month was horrible

    Not sold on him. Came home as limp as a wet lettuce, averaged 79 over his last 8 games. If he is mid only then no chance I'll pick him, reckon his best case scenario this year is to push for a 100 average which is not enough.

    Lovely work, Nick

  12. lostlarrikin says:

    Good stuff BBQ Nick
    Love this Kelly bloke, will be a beast in a couple of years.
    Needs a bit more TOG and start pushing high 20's in disposals and the tons will roll out.
    Agree with many, 2018 will be his year.

    Hope for your sake he proves us all wrong.